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White Sox Bryce Harper FA pitch spoiler?


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After reading some of you guys' thoughtful posts, perhaps the best way for Hahn to negotiate would be to ask Mr. Harper what he wants. I don't mean simply the money, but rather what is his objective. He is going to get a lot of money, wherever he signs.  Is the city important to him? Is his main goal to win a World Series? Does he want to be the face of a franchise? Does he have aspirations to become a part owner of a MLB franchise? Who knows what is most important to him, beyond the staggering material wealth, he will reap? If Hahn can discern what he's after, that would certainly help him, in his effort to offer something very appealing to Harper.

Edited by Lillian
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2 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

No it doesn't, it all favors the player.  If he is happy then he can leverage the opt out for even more money if he has been productive.  If he sucks, he stays and collects his big money, there is no club option to get rid of him.....see for example jason Heyward,  Cubs would love for the option to be mutual.

You are right, it mostly favors the player and Hayward is a good example of that. However I don't think you can walk to the negotiating table with a player like Harper and offer something like that and get him to stay.  He is going to look for and find the best deal for himself, for now and the future

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18 minutes ago, Lillian said:

After reading some of you guys' thoughtful posts, perhaps the best way for Hahn to negotiate would be to ask Mr. Harper what he wants. I don't mean simply the money, but rather what is his objective. He is going to get a lot of money, wherever he signs.  Is the city important to him? Is his main goal to win a World Series? Does he want to be the face of a franchise? Does he have aspirations to become a part owner of a MLB franchise? Who knows what is most important to him, beyond the staggering material wealth, he will reap? If Hahn can discern what he's after, that would certainly help him, in his effort to offer something very appealing to Harper.

FYI Boras will only negotiate with owners on a Harper contract.

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4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are Steamer not mean projections?  If they are, why are we assuming any variance would be underperformance?  Certaintly some guys will perform much different than their projection, but there should also be positive outcomes in that respect.

If you’re referring to the five young guys, I agree those aren’t necessarily mean projections but they’re not crazy by any means.  Those kids should all get better next year and none of those projections come close to peak level upside.  To me, they reflect realistic progressions with their development.

Again, nothing is foolproof.  All those young guys could stagnate or bust.  There could be other unforeseen regressions.  Regardless, I think if you can add Harper (the biggest if) and some other pieces, having a competitive team next year is in the realm of possibility and not a “every single thing must go right” type scenario.

Right but you’re assuming the projections will all even out for the ones that have decent projections, and just saying “well they have upside” for all the bad ones. 

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3 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

That would be pretty good for us.  Who are the winningest MLB owners (regardless of sport)?  

Jerry has 7 championships.

Not to be a downer and I get what you are trying to say but the Bulls championships mean absolutely nothing in this scenario 

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1 minute ago, beckham15 said:

Not to be a downer and I get what you are trying to say but the Bulls championships mean absolutely nothing in this scenario 

Look, we're basing this on a @Dick Allen making on unfounded claim about Boras negotiating directly with owners.  

And, obviously the Sox disagree if they're filming a video at the United Center.

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1 minute ago, AustinIllini said:

Look, we're basing this on a @Dick Allen making on unfounded claim about Boras negotiating directly with owners.  

And, obviously the Sox disagree if they're filming a video at the United Center.

To be honest both organizations do not have the best track record of bringing in Free Agents on either side of town, and I feel as if Reinsdorf has been in a few of those sales pitch before....film a video wherever you may.... Lebron and crew, Carmelo, Tracy McGrady are all NBA players that got the same type of treatment in the past with the allure of playing at the United Center and all turned us down in their own respective sport.....what makes anyone think that filming a video at the UC holds any weight or real relevance to any baseball player let alone talking about the NBA titles?

 

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10 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

Look, we're basing this on a @Dick Allen making on unfounded claim about Boras negotiating directly with owners.  

And, obviously the Sox disagree if they're filming a video at the United Center.

Unfounded?

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/11/09/some-laugh-million-bryce-harper-heres-how-scott-boras-plans-get-it/?utm_term=.6050771f8515

 

Edited by Dick Allen
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16 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

That would be pretty good for us.  Who are the winningest MLB owners (regardless of sport)?  

Jerry has 7 championships.

Yes, that last Bulls championship from over 20 years ago, and the one and only baseball championship from over 13 years ago, should really give the current owner some massive leverage in any negotiations with the always-savvy Scott Boras.  What an upper hand we’ll have!

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1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Right but you’re assuming the projections will all even out for the ones that have decent projections, and just saying “well they have upside” for all the bad ones. 

That’s not what I’m doing though.  I’m acknowledging the flaws of projection systems, which is forecasting young players.  Unfortunately Steamer doesn’t know how to account for the concept that “development isn’t linear”.  It also doesn’t know how to account for guys coming off shoulder surgeries.

Let me ask you this.  What would your realistic forecasts be for Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito next year?  Not looking for anything fancy here, just rough estimates on what kind of WAR you’d expect to see from them.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s not what I’m doing though.  I’m acknowledging the flaws of projection systems, which is forecasting young players.  Unfortunately Steamer doesn’t know how to account for the concept that “development isn’t linear”.  It also doesn’t know how to account for guys coming off shoulder surgeries.

Let me ask you this.  What would your realistic forecasts be for Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito next year?  Not looking for anything fancy here, just rough estimates on what kind of WAR you’d expect to see from them.

I think you’re right that projection systems don’t do as well with young players, but I don’t know who doesn’t acknowledge that. Any projection will be worse with less data. And while they do account for breakouts in their aging curves, there’s certainly a lot more volatility for guys whose skills and bodies are still maturing. 

I don’t wanna think about guessing WARs right now. If you’re planning to illustrate they’d be different than steamer, I’ll grant that. But I don’t know if my personal biases are necessarily better informed. Just differently informed. Probably worse on average. 

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1 hour ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Yes, that last Bulls championship from over 20 years ago, and the one and only baseball championship from over 13 years ago, should really give the current owner some massive leverage in any negotiations with the always-savvy Scott Boras.  What an upper hand we’ll have!

It's based on a faulty premise anyway.  Boras is negotiating with FOs, not owners.

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Color me dubious about Harper moving here and especially wondering how a guy making a massive salary would ever fit in. If he saw something special about our program in 2018  I would love to hear about it. 

20 hours ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Better question is what would he “accept” from Chicago to come to the South Side and help/lead turning our team’s fortunes around, and bringing a whole, lot more winning to 35th & Shields than any of us has ever seen!

 

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22 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

It's based on a faulty premise anyway.  Boras is negotiating with FOs, not owners.

The faulty premise is suggesting that potentially the largest contract in the history of baseball will be negotiated between Messrs. Hahn & Williams and Mr. Boras, and not directly between Boras and Mr. Reinsdorf.  

Hahn and Williams will of course be in the room when and if these negotiations occur, but a contract of this size and nature always brings the owner into the direct negotiations, and appropriately so.  

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1 minute ago, Fan O'Faust said:

The faulty premise is suggesting that potentially the largest contract in the history of baseball will be negotiated between Messrs. Hahn & Williams and Mr. Boras, and not directly between Boras and Mr. Reinsdorf.  

Hahn and Williams will of course be in the room when and if these negotiations occur, but a contract of this size and nature always brings the owner into the direct negotiations, and appropriately so.  

Hahn and Williams will know what they're allowed to offer, but don't pretend any player is going to circumvent management.

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25 minutes ago, pcq said:

Color me dubious about Harper moving here why are you dubious about that?  The guy clearly loves the city of Chicago and would have no problem moving here and especially wondering how a guy making a massive salary would ever fit in the same way A-Rod fit into Texas when he signed his massive contract with them; Cano with the M’s; Pujols with the Angels, etc.  Happens all the time If he saw something special about our program in 2018  I would love to hear about it.  The hope is what he sees special on the horizon and potentially over the next ten years, with him being a key piece in the puzzle.  That’s what the negotiations will be about, not the results of a rebuild development year already in the books  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

Hahn and Williams will know what they're allowed to offer, but don't pretend any player is going to circumvent management.

Mr. Reinsdorf, flanked by his trusty assistants Mr. Hahn and Mr. Williams, will be in the room together for the direct negotiations with Mr. Boras, if and when they happen. 

Edited by Fan O'Faust
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54 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I think you’re right that projection systems don’t do as well with young players, but I don’t know who doesn’t acknowledge that. Any projection will be worse with less data. And while they do account for breakouts in their aging curves, there’s certainly a lot more volatility for guys whose skills and bodies are still maturing. 

I don’t wanna think about guessing WARs right now. If you’re planning to illustrate they’d be different than steamer, I’ll grant that. But I don’t know if my personal biases are necessarily better informed. Just differently informed. Probably worse on average. 

I think they would be better informed because you’re an incredibly smart guy who follows the team on a daily basis.  I’m all for advanced analytics, but pyoung players it really requires a bigger emphasis on scouting 

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10 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

3 year opt out.   Pay him what he wants and worry about paying him in 3 years, hopefully in the middle of a competitive window 

 

This is the thing, we have no idea who the high earner will be in 3 years, or 5 years.  Paying him 45 million a year for 5 years sounds incredible, but he knows in the 3-5 year time frame, the highest earner could be making more than that and he will want to be able to match or exceed it.  If you don't give him that opportunity, he will probably go to a team that will.

I agree with you here. I personally don't think the Sox will anywhere near the Bryce Harper finish line. But if they were to come close, opt out after the third year is mandatory. Better to have him for three years and then take your chances then not have him at all.

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