Alternate Plan for a $150 Million Payroll

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I thought you weren't very high on ABreu any more. You made quite a few posts on his slippage this past year, An improved Palka strictly against righties could provide plenty of pop. Palka had an .824 OP against righties. Davidson .882 OPS against lefties. Abreu .798 OPS. Doesn't appear to be a downgrade.

You're right I do like the Palka and Davidson setup...but what am I doing with the DH spot if I let Abreu go? I've freed up $18 million in payroll, but what player am I going to get for the DH spot who is likely to produce beyond Abreu for that money? I already needed to sign one of the OFs to fill Garcia's spot, so now I need another one? That's comparable money and Abreu would be getting fewer years. So, put Palka and Davidson together to make a DH platoon, with the ability to rest the corner OF spots or 3b/1b every now and then, and then I have Abreu at 1b/Dh and a solid, cheap pair in Palka and Davidson, I'm getting decent production all around.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

41 minutes ago, Lillian said:

You're correct. I agree that the strategies are not mutually exclusive. However, what if we miss on Harper, or Machado?

Then its back to the original plan . Get pitching from outside the organization to eat innings and tank again.

[Dam8610]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're right I do like the Palka and Davidson setup...but what am I doing with the DH spot if I let Abreu go? I've freed up $18 million in payroll, but what player am I going to get for the DH spot who is likely to produce beyond Abreu for that money? I already needed to sign one of the OFs to fill Garcia's spot, so now I need another one? That's comparable money and Abreu would be getting fewer years. So, put Palka and Davidson together to make a DH platoon, with the ability to rest the corner OF spots or 3b/1b every now and then, and then I have Abreu at 1b/Dh and a solid, cheap pair in Palka and Davidson, I'm getting decent production all around.

Nelson Cruz

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

In a perfect world, this is what I want the Sox to do:

Get Harper or Machado. A superstar in their prime to anchor the lineup and be the face of the franchise long term.

AND

Sign a couple of the bridge guys (Donaldson/Brantley/McCutchen/Moustakas/Happ/Cahill/Familia) to 1 or 2 year deals. This would make the team much more formidable in the short term, but these guys wouldn't be blocking any prospects. The Sox would once again have a substantial amount to spend in a couple years once these contracts are up to use towards filling holes when the team should be closer to being a legit contender.

This would be the best of both worlds in my opinion.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're right I do like the Palka and Davidson setup...but what am I doing with the DH spot if I let Abreu go? I've freed up $18 million in payroll, but what player am I going to get for the DH spot who is likely to produce beyond Abreu for that money? I already needed to sign one of the OFs to fill Garcia's spot, so now I need another one? That's comparable money and Abreu would be getting fewer years. So, put Palka and Davidson together to make a DH platoon, with the ability to rest the corner OF spots or 3b/1b every now and then, and then I have Abreu at 1b/Dh and a solid, cheap pair in Palka and Davidson, I'm getting decent production all around.

Depends on which whale we get. I already mentioned Harper could play 1st base. Palka could be an OF against righties. Depends on what Nelson Cruz might cost i suppose. See what Daniel Murphy will cost. Steve Pearce, Dozier ,Matt Adams.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Nelson Cruz

Cruz hasn't played more than 4 games in the OF since 2016, so by signing him I save a few million dollars but I also force Palka and Davidson into the lineup at 1b every day? I would pay the few million more to have Abreu able to play 1b fairly often. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Depends on which whale we get. I already mentioned Harper could play 1st base. Palka could be an OF against righties. Depends on what Nelson Cruz might cost i suppose. See what Daniel Murphy will cost. Steve Pearce, Dozier ,Matt Adams.

I'm playing along with the rules of the thread which says no Harper, and no, Harper is not moving to 1b even if we get him.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Whitesox27 said:

In a perfect world, this is what I want the Sox to do:

Get Harper or Machado. A superstar in their prime to anchor the lineup and be the face of the franchise long term.

AND

Sign a couple of the bridge guys (Donaldson/Brantley/McCutchen/Moustakas/Happ/Cahill/Familia) to 1 or 2 year deals. This would make the team much more formidable in the short term, but these guys wouldn't be blocking any prospects. The Sox would once again have a substantial amount to spend in a couple years once these contracts are up to use towards filling holes when the team should be closer to being a legit contender.

This would be the best of both worlds in my opinion.

Sounds like the plan I've been trumpeting but the question on the bridge guys is always wwat they want and how many years and will we have the payroll for them

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm playing along with the rules of the thread which says no Harper, and no, Harper is not moving to 1b even if we get him.

Ok you're right . I had to reread the OP. Hell then I wouldn't even bother without Harper or Machado I don't see the sense of adding anything besides the innings eaters. and going back to the original plan of tanking and waiting for the youngins'. Next year is a good pitching year for FA's, maybe start then but I don;t like too many positional guys in the next 2 FA classes  besides Arenado and Rendon. I might add some guys for potential flips but without the whale there's not much of a chance of being that competitive.

Edited November 14, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Lillian]

It looks like this thread has already been derailed. I understand that we are all fixated on the Machado/Harper sweepstakes, however that is being discussed in great detail, in a couple of other threads. I had hoped that this thread would focus solely on the "alternate" approach, in the event that the Sox are unable to acquire either one of them.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm playing along with the rules of the thread which says no Harper, and no, Harper is not moving to 1b even if we get him.

I'd argue that point about Harper but no need to derail the thread.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

It looks like this thread has already been derailed. I understand that we are all fixated on the Machado/Harper sweepstakes, however that is being discussed in great detail, in a couple of other threads. I had hoped that this thread would focus solely on the "alternate" approach, in the event that the Sox are unable to acquire either one of them.

Unfortunately when you ask for something like your alternate approach it takes a ton of research on current payroll ,who we might keep who we might trade who can we acquire via FA and at what price and then making it into a full roster with flexibility.  That could take a few hours at a minimum and . I don't know how long it took Balta but I know it would take me a long time. We have good fans here but if you work full time and have kids and a wife and many other responsibilities that's asking a lot.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I think the alternate plan is don’t do anything, or at least nothing significant. Maybe there’s some miracle trade out there we could pull off, but the last thing I want to see this team do is sign a bunch of middle of the road aging vets to try and chase a wild card spot. We’re this far into the rebuild already, might as well keep doing it the right way.

[GreenSox]

5 hours ago, Lillian said:

Given the extraordinarily modest financial commitment, now on the books, how might the Sox assemble a competitive team, without Machado, or Harper, using that same total $150 Million annual commitment, for both one of the top free agents and several other pieces? 

They couldn't.  The team would be the Giants of 2018 or the Sox of 2015/2016.

And it makes a lot of sense to acquire Machado/Harper without signing a bunch of 2nd/3rd tier FAs.

[Y2Jimmy0]

21 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The Astros won the world series when their opening day payroll was $117 mil (The Yankees were paying $8 mil for McCann). They added payroll during the year with Verlander and then gave Altuve a big extension afterwards...but they had a huge new revenue boost due to "Winning the World Series". Both of these things should happen with the White Sox. 

The Astros also had the luxury of competitive balance picks and extra international space. The White Sox don't share those same perks. MLB thinks they are a big market club. It's time to act like it. 

[ron883]

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The Astros also had the luxury of competitive balance picks and extra international space. The White Sox don't share those same perks. MLB thinks they are a big market club. It's time to act like it. 

Why the hell does Houston get competitive balance picks??

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Why the hell does Houston get competitive balance picks??

I went back to 2013 and found no year where the Astros were listed as receiving a competitive balance pick, what year did I miss?

2013/2014, 2015 , 2016, 2017/2018. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I went back to 2013 and found no year where the Astros were listed as receiving a competitive balance pick, what year did I miss?

2013/2014, 2015 , 2016, 2017/2018. 

This is correct, actually. My bad. Astros drafted Daz Cameron with one in 2015. They also used a Compensatory pick on LJ Hoes but it was acquired from the Orioles. They also acquired from STL and had a compensation pick under the old system in which they selected McCullers. 

[Eminor3rd]

On 11/14/2018 at 2:49 PM, Lillian said:

It looks like this thread has already been derailed. I understand that we are all fixated on the Machado/Harper sweepstakes, however that is being discussed in great detail, in a couple of other threads. I had hoped that this thread would focus solely on the "alternate" approach, in the event that the Sox are unable to acquire either one of them.

Not trying to crap on your thread/exercise idea, but:

Without Harper/Machado, there is no $150m payroll 2019 plan that makes sense. 

Even with one of the big two, we’re still rebuilding. No combination of free agents and trades can make a $150m team that’s any better than the one that failed us hard enough that it caused a rebuild a couple years ago.

Yes, you can envision a dream scenario where every player takes a step or two forward and no one gets injured and the club decided to get four premium free agents, but the likelihood of that happening is akin to playing the lottery, except the cost of the losing lottery ticket is five years of shitty baseball instead of two bucks. 

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yes, you can envision a dream scenario where every player takes a step or two forward and no one gets injured and the club decided to get four premium free agents, but the likelihood of that happening is akin to playing the lottery, except the cost of the losing lottery ticket is five years of shitty baseball instead of two bucks. 

This is the only part of your post I don’t agree with.  The 2017 Twins improved by 26 games.  The 2018 A’s improved by 22 games.  The 2018 Braves improved by 18 games.  That’s three examples off the top of my head in the last two year of teams taking massive leaps & making the playoffs without huge free agent spending.  To say the odds of us doing something similar next year is akin to “playing the lottery” is being way too pessimistic IMO.  

And let me be clear, I’m not suggesting that type of leap is likely for us, but with enough free agent additions & internal development it is possible.  I know it’s easy to be down on our first wave of prospects right now, but Moncada is a former #1 prospect, Rodon & Giolito were top 10 guy at one point, & Anderson & Lopez were top 40 types.  Those guys are capable of taking signicant leaps next year.  Jimenez is a top 5 prospect also capable of making an impact next year.  Those guys (plus our LF’s) combined for 6.5 fWAR last year.  The room for improvement there is significant.  Combine that with several important free agent signings (including a whale) and there is a chance our team could take a massive leap forward next year.

Again, nothing is guaranteed and it would take a mix of good health, luck, & development, but it’s definitely not as much as a stretch as you’re making it out to be unless you just don’t believe in the talent of our young guys.

[Eminor3rd]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is the only part of your post I don’t agree with.  The 2017 Twins improved by 26 games.  The 2018 A’s improved by 22 games.  The 2018 Braves improved by 18 games.  That’s three examples off the top of my head in the last two year of teams taking massive leaps & making the playoffs without huge free agent spending.  To say the odds of us doing something similar next year is akin to “playing the lottery” is being way too pessimistic IMO.  

And let me be clear, I’m not suggesting that type of leap is likely for us, but with enough free agent additions & internal development it is possible.  I know it’s easy to be down on our first wave of prospects right now, but Moncada is a former #1 prospect, Rodon & Giolito were top 10 guy at one point, & Anderson & Lopez were top 40 types.  Those guys are capable of taking signicant leaps next year.  Jimenez is a top 5 prospect also capable of making an impact next year.  Those guys (plus our LF’s) combined for 6.5 fWAR last year.  The room for improvement there is significant.  Combine that with several important free agent signings (including a whale) and there is a chance our team could take a massive leap forward next year.

Again, nothing is guaranteed and it would take a mix of good health, luck, & development, but it’s definitely not as much as a stretch as you’re making it out to be unless you just don’t believe in the talent of our young guys.

All of those teams were 2 years further into their rebuilds.

Well, except the A's, who are never really in or out.

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

All of those teams were 2 years further into their rebuilds.

Well, except the A's, who are never really in or out.

People wanted the rebuild so badly, and despite all of the evidence of how long that it would take, people still seem surprised and upset it is taking so long.  This is a process.  Sure a big signing could speed this up by maybe a bit, but this team is not going anywhere in 2019, and probably not 2020.  This was was true when they burned it down 2 years ago, and it is still true today.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

People wanted the rebuild so badly, and despite all of the evidence of how long that it would take, people still seem surprised and upset it is taking so long.  This is a process.  Sure a big signing could speed this up by maybe a bit, but this team is not going anywhere in 2019, and probably not 2020.  This was was true when they burned it down 2 years ago, and it is still true today.

It arguably would be on the way to failing, if not for the Q trade...at any rate, without Eaton/Sale and Frazier/Kahnle to start off the rebuild with, we'd REALLY be in a bad situation, bordering on hopeless.

In that scenario, all the hope would be centered on Robert and Madrigal, but that still likely wouldn't be close to enough without $100+ million of FA spending (per year).

[tray]

Lilly:

I am sold on getting Harper and plugging in some veteran talent , especially for our rotation and bullpen.

But I know you don't want to hear that so let me bite on a semi-serious alternative:

Tank 2019, but in committing to that end, put a AA team on the field and let them be baptized by fire....kind of  like the mid-sixties NY Mets.

Infield:  Moncada at 3rd (make him play there) , Timmy at short, Madrigal at 2nd,  Abreu at 1st.

Outfield Eloy, Robert and Avi G.

Catcher: Bring up Collins or Zavala

Meanwhile, try to trade Abreu and Avi. If a trade gets done, replace them with other AA type talent, like Basabe or Micker.

Same idea with pitching -  cycle pitchers up from the minors to see who can cut it in the bigs.

That would guarantee another 100 loss season, but fans might actually enjoy watching the rebuild happen in real time during actual major league games.

What more would we have to lose if we are going to lose anyway ?

 So tank 2019, but at least try to make it interesting.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, tray said:

Lilly:

I am sold on getting Harper and plugging in some veteran talent , especially for our rotation and bullpen.

But I know you don't want to hear that so let me bite on a semi-serious alternative:

Tank 2019, but in committing to that end, put a AA team on the field and let them be baptized by fire....kind of  like the mid-sixties NY Mets.

Infield:  Moncada at 3rd (make him play there) , Timmy at short, Madrigal at 2nd,  Abreu at 1st.

Outfield Eloy, Robert and Avi G.

Catcher: Bring up Collins or Zavala

Meanwhile, try to trade Abreu and Avi. If a trade gets done, replace them with other AA type talent, like Basabe or Micker.

Same idea with pitching -  cycle pitchers up from the minors to see who can cut it in the bigs.

That would guarantee another 100 loss season, but fans might actually enjoy watching the rebuild happen in real time during actual major league games.

What more would we have to lose if we are going to lose anyway ?

 So tank 2019, but at least try to make it interesting.

 

So just to be clear, your plan is to rush all our prospects to somehow make things “interesting”?  I’d like to share my actual thoughts here, but would prefer to avoid a likely suspension.