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James Paxton traded to NYY for 3 prospects


Sleepy Harold

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1 minute ago, Eminor3rd said:

This move greatly increases the chances that they sign Machado.

I still don’t get this line of thinking.  The Yankees were always going to add two arms, with one likely being Corbin and the other being acquired via trade.  They still have a great chance of landing Machado, but I’m not sure how this really changes anything.

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Just now, bmags said:

Oh man if they sign Corbin then they are DEFINITELY signing manny.

MM will sign with whoever makes him the richest man possible. If that is the Yankees, that is who he will sign with.  If that is the Reds, that is who he will sign with.  Its that simple.  

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

MM will sign with whoever makes him the richest man possible. If that is the Yankees, that is who he will sign with.  If that is the Reds, that is who he will sign with.  Its that simple.  

I also think people are overestimating how much the Yankees are going to be willing to spend.  Hicks & Gregarious combined for 9.5 WAR last year and will both be free agents after the season.  Severino hits arbitration this year and Judge & Sanchez next year.  Those guys combined for 12.3 WAR and will see their salaries rise significantly in the coming years.  TLDR => their core is about to get very expensive.  I’m not suggesting they can’t afford Machado, but I don’t anticipate them going all-out for him.  I still believe the Phillies are the greater threat for Manny.

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Jon Morosi‏ Verified account @jonmorosi

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Source: #Yankees mentioned #Mariners SS Jean Segura in trade talks before decision was made to focus on Paxton alone. Segura’s inclusion in the deal would have all but eliminated Yankees as possible destination for Manny Machado. @MLB @MLBNetwork

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10 minutes ago, EvilJester99 said:

Jon Morosi‏ Verified account @jonmorosi

Following Following @jonmorosi

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Source: #Yankees mentioned #Mariners SS Jean Segura in trade talks before decision was made to focus on Paxton alone. Segura’s inclusion in the deal would have all but eliminated Yankees as possible destination for Manny Machado. @MLB @MLBNetwork

Well that sucks, but if even considering Segura they must not be convinced about spending big money on Machado.

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50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I also think people are overestimating how much the Yankees are going to be willing to spend.  Hicks & Gregarious combined for 9.5 WAR last year and will both be free agents after the season.  Severino hits arbitration this year and Judge & Sanchez next year.  Those guys combined for 12.3 WAR and will see their salaries rise significantly in the coming years.  TLDR => their core is about to get very expensive.  I’m not suggesting they can’t afford Machado, but I don’t anticipate them going all-out for him.  I still believe the Phillies are the greater threat for Manny.

I think you're underestimating the Yankees. This is a team that has paid the luxury tax every single year of it's existence except 1. Right now, they have ~$165 million under contract - they need 2 big signings just to bring them back up to the tax level. And while their arb costs are going to be high, at the end of 2020 the contracts for Ellsbury and Tanaka end, so even with guys hitting arbitration, their payroll goes down rather than up. Their commits are about $120-$130 million for 2019, 2020, and 2021, including arbitration for guys. The tax level will be about $210 million for the next several years, and their revenue has continued going up. They could buy 3 $25 mil/year players this year without really taxing themselves. 

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23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think you're underestimating the Yankees. This is a team that has paid the luxury tax every single year of it's existence except 1. Right now, they have ~$165 million under contract - they need 2 big signings just to bring them back up to the tax level. And while their arb costs are going to be high, at the end of 2020 the contracts for Ellsbury and Tanaka end, so even with guys hitting arbitration, their payroll goes down rather than up. Their commits are about $120-$130 million for 2019, 2020, and 2021, including arbitration for guys. The tax level will be about $210 million for the next several years, and their revenue has continued going up. They could buy 3 $25 mil/year players this year without really taxing themselves. 

What they have available today is not what they’ll have available tomorrow.  There is no doubt they can afford Machado right now, but in the coming years adding him eats up some of their flexibility.  I already called out Hicks & Gregorius being free agents after this coming season.  I assume you just ignored these guys & their 9.5 fWAR in your future payroll assessment.  Also, the arbitration estimates beyond 2019 are simply based on averages and do not reflect what young stars like Judge, Sanchez, & Servino will actually earn.  And Tanaka falling off the payroll means another hole to fill.  The same applies to Paxton unless they are able to retain him at signficanth bigger dollars.  You are making their financial situation look much better than it really is.  

That doesn’t mean Machado is a no-go, but they may not be eager to sign a 3B with character concerns to one of the largest contracts in baseball history given these financial considerations in addition to the fact they have a cheap, controllable 3B already in place.

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