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Cano to Mets deal official


southsider2k5

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Mets to the Mariners rescue. Seattle shouldn't get the better part of this deal. You either let them rot with the older Cano or you come away the clear winner in the trade. Cano doesn't want to play anywhere but NY . Seattle is desperate here, Mets need more like Mallex Smith or someone else.

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This looks like a trade of Diaz for prospects and Cano for salary relief.   They are getting good prospects for Diaz.Can't compare to Chapman trade - that's a July trade for a team looking to win a WS - prices are at a premium.  As it is, Ms are getting ascending prospects who haven't rotted on the vine.  I certainly wouldn't trade Madrigal and, say, Basabe (an ascending prospect) for Diaz.  Diaz had gargantuan K totals and a great one-year WHIP...but high K totals are more and more common; not 15 high but mediocre pitchers are hitting >10Ks/9 these days.
I think the Cano part of the deal is okay for the Mets - they'll get a good 2/3 years out of him and aren't giving up anything.  >50% isn't bad; that's about as much as a team can expect if they sign Harper/Machado even at their age.

Edited by GreenSox
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2 hours ago, Colinski said:

Passen’s article on this trade sums it up perfectly for me. Baseball is about winning games, this trade helps the Mets win now (lose more later perhaps).

this is unlikely the only deal they will do and this deal shouldn’t be assessed in a vacume. 

As White Sox fans we moan our team don’t act like a big market team yet some of us are now talking about losing trade value whilst acting like a big team (big teams can take more risks because they can afford to fix the mistakes).

is this a plus EV trade for the Mets, probably not. Do they win more games in 19’... almost definitely. 

This deal will greatly affect what else they are able to do. They traded away highly valued, far away talent which is helpful for trades in win now situations. They added to their salary long-term for an owner that, unlike our own who does not spend out of preference, seems to have legitimate cash flow issues consistently.

All moves are not equal. It's fine if they wanted to go for it, to go for it targeting a 38 year old and a closer with your most expensive acquisition is likely to be bad.

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Yikes. I take away my support of a Cano trade to the Sox if that was the asking price....

I get the Swarzak and Bruce part -- two years and $26mm left. Swarzak has 1 year and $7mm? That's off the top of my head, so apologize if that's incorrect.. Let's say the Mariners throw in $15mm - that basically equates to $48mm or two years of Cano deal being eaten by the Mariners. If following my wonky math still... the trade is

 

Cano, 3 years and $72mm and Diaz to the Mets

Mariners receive Bruce and Swarzak for a period of time and Kelenic.

I call that a win for the Mariners. (my assumption is $15mm is going back in the deal to the Mets -- that's complete guess work).

 

I think it's crazy the mets would include a prospect. I'd rather just take on Cano and not tie in Diaz than give up Kelenic.

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7 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Yikes. I take away my support of a Cano trade to the Sox if that was the asking price....

I get the Swarzak and Bruce part -- two years and $26mm left. Swarzak has 1 year and $7mm? That's off the top of my head, so apologize if that's incorrect.. Let's say the Mariners throw in $15mm - that basically equates to $48mm or two years of Cano deal being eaten by the Mariners. If following my wonky math still... the trade is

 

Cano, 3 years and $72mm and Diaz to the Mets

Mariners receive Bruce and Swarzak for a period of time and Kelenic.

I call that a win for the Mariners. (my assumption is $15mm is going back in the deal to the Mets -- that's complete guess work).

 

I think it's crazy the mets would include a prospect. I'd rather just take on Cano and not tie in Diaz than give up Kelenic.

You can sort of look at it as 2 separate deals. The first as Cano for Swarzak and Bruce and the second as Diaz for the rest of the deal. The only thing that doesn't make sense about the deal is that the Mets are more towards the rebuilding side than competing. There was no way it was going to be Cano and Diaz for nothing though.

On the Mariners side, there were reports that they did explore a bunch of scenarios with other teams, separate players and packages and I guess the Mariners felt the package they got from the Mets, even including Cano, was the best choice (granted, it is early in the off-season).

Personally from the Mariners perspective, I would have pushed hard for a Cano for Bruce, Swarzak, Cespedes deal. Get out of some bad money sooner and trade Diaz in a separate deal.

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I think Seattle could have gotten more for Diaz from another org, and I think they'd have been wiser to aim at just trying to marginally reduce cano cost through contract swaps.

That said, Kelenic + Dunn is pretty good considering previous rumors. 

They have now traded two of their best pieces and received a top 25 player (whom i'm highly skeptical of) and a few top 100 players (though I am really not sure how much to value the play of players in the first year out of the draft).

Underwhelming as far as I'm concerned but certainly could be worse.

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Mariners are sending $60m in the deal as well. Honestly if the Mets suck this year, they have some nice trade chips (Diaz, the starters depending on their health, Conforto if he bounces back) in the summer time or even next off-season if they do decide to blow it up. And Cano being paid down that much could even be an asset.

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28 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Mariners are sending $60m in the deal as well. Honestly if the Mets suck this year, they have some nice trade chips (Diaz, the starters depending on their health, Conforto if he bounces back) in the summer time or even next off-season if they do decide to blow it up. And Cano being paid down that much could even be an asset.

Given the amount of money going to the Mets I think this is a good deal for them. Actually gives them payroll space to add alongside Cano and Diaz. I still don’t think they win their division.

they had to either rebuild or go all in, at least they aren’t “mired in mediocrity” again ?.

 

And as the quoted poster said it’s not as if they can’t change course and trade Diaz and their pitching etc should this not work. 

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3 minutes ago, Colinski said:

Given the amount of money going to the Mets I think this is a good deal for them. Actually gives them payroll space to add alongside Cano and Diaz. I still don’t think they win their division.

 they had to either rebuild or go all in, at least they aren’t “mired in mediocrity” again ?.

 

And as the quoted poster said it’s not as if they can’t change course and trade Diaz and their pitching etc should this not work. 

It all depends on their health. All their SP are ticking time bombs. It actually might be smart to deal one of them if they can get some good pieces for the system and try to add a SP that can eat innings at the back of the rotation.

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1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

If the Mariners are really sending $60M over, then this deal just keeps getting worse and worse for Seattle in my mind.

I’ve actually seen more annoyed Mariners fans than Mets ones. They won what 89 games last year and are tearing it down. That’s hard for a fan base with a drought as long as there’s. 

This could go down as lose lose (rather than a win/win) trade if injuries hit Mets and the mariners prospects bust. 

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17 minutes ago, Colinski said:

I’ve actually seen more annoyed Mariners fans than Mets ones. They won what 89 games last year and are tearing it down. That’s hard for a fan base with a drought as long as there’s. 

This could go down as lose lose (rather than a win/win) trade if injuries hit Mets and the mariners prospects bust. 

I keep going back and forth on it. I guess if the Mariners are still trying to compete, then it makes sense to rid as much of the deal as possible but then also, why deal Paxton?

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So we got:

Mets Receive:

-Robinson Cano (5 years $120M left)

-Edwin Diaz (pre arb; 4 years of control)

-$60M, prorates Cano deal to $12M per season

 

Mariners Receive:

-Jay Bruce (2 years $26M)

-Anthony Swarzak (1 year $8M)

-Jarred Kelenic (Mets #3 prospects; MLB #62)

-Justin Dunn (Mets #4 prospect per MLBPIPELINE; MLB #89)

-Gerson Bautista (never highly rated and minor league stats are pretty blah, but major league ready arm)

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

So we got:

Mets Receive:

-Robinson Cano (5 years $120M left)

-Edwin Diaz (pre arb; 4 years of control)

-$60M, prorates Cano deal to $12M per season

 

Mariners Receive:

-Jay Bruce (2 years $26M)

-Anthony Swarzak (1 year $8M)

-Jarred Kelenic (Mets #3 prospects; MLB #62)

-Justin Dunn (Mets #4 prospect per MLBPIPELINE; MLB #89)

-Gerson Bautista (never highly rated and minor league stats are pretty blah, but major league ready arm)

If you break it up into two deals:

Cano + $60M for Bruce, Swarzak and Bautista

AND

Diaz for Dunn and Kelenic

If you look at it that way, Mariners are basically eating $94M of the $120M due to Cano (with offsetting salaries of Bruce and Swarzak). Seems pretty damn steep, but probably gets them Dunn + Kelenic instead of Dunn OR Kelenic

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IMO, there is no way the M's are sending $60M plus eating all of Bruce and Swarzak.  Thinking $60M includes at least a portion of Bruce and Swarzak - thinking M's send along $30M or so at the end of the day.

If Mariners send $60M AND eat Bruce and Swarzak contracts, the Mets are getting Cano for $26M per (in new money out the door) for 5 years.  I think any team would take that, even for an aging Cano.  

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It's around 25 million not 60.

Nov. 30, 6:24pm: The Mariners are only expected to chip in something in the mid-$20MM range to cover Cano’s salary, per Passan (via Twitter). Seattle will still be absorbing the two significant contracts, of course, but it seems the New York org will be paying for about half of Cano’s contract (while also presumptively paying Diaz in arbitration).

This is just a god awful trade for the Mets. Cano is really going to struggle moving forward playing the field and since he plays in the NL there is no DH to hide him at. This subtraction by addition for the Mets. Cano numbers will fall down to earth quickly as soon as he is off the juice. He's 35

Edited by wrathofhahn
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2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

It's around 25 million not 60.

Nov. 30, 6:24pm: The Mariners are only expected to chip in something in the mid-$20MM range to cover Cano’s salary, per Passan (via Twitter). Seattle will still be absorbing the two significant contracts, of course, but it seems the New York org will be paying for about half of Cano’s contract (while also presumptively paying Diaz in arbitration).

This is just a god awful trade for the Mets. Cano is really going to struggle moving forward playing the field and since he plays in the NL there is no DH to hide him at. This subtraction by addition for the Mets. Cano numbers will fall down to earth quickly as soon as he is off the juice. He's 35

Why is it assumed that Cano is gonna suddenly become a disaster at second base? He has always been average or better and it's not exactly the toughest position. He only was moved because the Mariners thought it was a good idea to trade for another second baseman.

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55 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Why is it assumed that Cano is gonna suddenly become a disaster at second base? He has always been average or better and it's not exactly the toughest position. He only was moved because the Mariners thought it was a good idea to trade for another second baseman.

Right. Dee Gordon wasn't good in the OF, Cano wouldn't have been post-season eligible if they made it so it was perfect for Gordon to slide back to 2B. And they needed help at 1B so Cano shifting there made sense.

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2 hours ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Why is it assumed that Cano is gonna suddenly become a disaster at second base? He has always been average or better and it's not exactly the toughest position. He only was moved because the Mariners thought it was a good idea to trade for another second baseman.

Because 2B is a physically demanding position and he's 36? Also some of his other seasons were likely enhanced. Betting on someone to continue to defy normal aging curves is bad bet sure there is a slight possibility Cano continues to defy the historical odds against him but why make that bet unless you have to? Especially when you have no DH to hide him should his defense decline to an unacceptable level.

Here are the normal aging curves for offense:

aging_curve_wrcp.jpg

 

 

Edited by wrathofhahn
Edit actually turned 36 a cpl of days ago
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