Patrick Corbin signing for 6/$140 million to Nats

[Lip Man 1]

At least it's not with the Yankees!

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

The more likely scenario is they have limits set on an SP, so they could go after one of Harper and Machado. If Phillies' plan was to go after an SP and OF/3B, shouldn't losing the top tier SP give them money to still go after the 2nd tier SP and more money for Harper and Machado? Also, if Corbin went for $140 M, you could pretty much  bump up any Harper/Machado projection by about 5%-10%.

This is bad news for Sox.

The Phillies capped themselves at five years.  How would that extra year prevent them from adding Harper or Machado?  They decided in this case they have their limits and now that is confirmed.

[ptatc]

51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, the total money is a little more reasonable, but that's  still under $25 mil per year. The Yanks and Phils wouldn't beat that why?

They are saving their money for Machado and Harper.

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Is it really impossible to understand that a fair market value contract given by one team would be a much worse deal for a team with a different roster?

Yes, I follow professor.

This Corbin deal will be terrible for the Nats, and I will be happy to remind you of such when it occurs.  

[ptatc]

35 minutes ago, fathom said:

It's very possible they outbid the Nationals, but Corbin picked them instead as he has a great relationship with Rizzo.

Not possible. we've been told time and time again that the player always goes for the most money. silly things like relationships don't matter.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yes, I follow professor.

This Corbin deal will be terrible for the Nats, and I will be happy to remind you of such when it occurs.  

Most fair market value deals are terrible deals for people. That's why you can't win on the free agent market unless you already have a good team.

[SonofaRoache]

51 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin is a nice top 3.  Have to imagine the Nats are going to be a real challenge for Bryce. 

I think Harper is done with the Nats. If he wanted to be there he would be there already. The Nats have had great pitching for years and still haven't advanced in the playoffs. I think he wants to build a name brand for himself. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Most fair market value deals are terrible deals for people. That's why you can't win on the free agent market unless you already have a good team.

Plenty of value to be found in the FA market, especially nowadays, but yes, it generally is not found by paying mid rotation pitchers top of the market rates because they're the best options available.  

[Balta1701]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Plenty of value to be found in the FA market, especially nowadays, but yes, it generally is not found by paying mid rotation pitchers top of the market rates because they're the best options available.  

If they get 1 5-win season out of Corbin next year, or a couple of 3 win seasons, they should be overall content with the value they got. That's the FA market.

[thxfrthmmrs]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Phillies capped themselves at five years.  How would that extra year prevent them from adding Harper or Machado?  They decided in this case they have their limits and now that is confirmed.

We don't know the AAV they offered for 5 years, it could well be that Nats outbid them on AAV, or they aren't comfortable going 6 on a pitcher.

Between not adding an SP and shredding Santana's salary, Phillies may even be able to add both Manny/Harper, then trade someone like Kingery for an SP.

And also let's consider that both Manny and Harper will go to the highest bidder, so if neither Yanks or Phillies committed expenditure on a top tier SP, the agents will likely use their now higher than expected budget to bid against one another, driving up the contracts and eliminating Sox out of the picture.

I like your optimism CWS, but I think this is the first and last blow to any chance we had.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

We don't know the AAV they offered for 5 years, it could well be that Nats outbid them on AAV, or they aren't comfortable going 6 on a pitcher.

Between not adding an SP and shredding Santana's salary, Phillies may even be able to add both Manny/Harper, then trade someone like Kingery for an SP.

And also let's consider that both Manny and Harper will go to the highest bidder, so if neither Yanks or Phillies committed expenditure on a top tier SP, the agents will likely use their now higher than expected budget to bid against one another, driving up the contracts and eliminating Sox out of the picture.

I like your optimism CWS, but I think this is the first and last blow to any chance we had.

I think you’re missing some context here.  I’ve pointed out in here & perhaps other threads that the Phillies front office is said to be conservative.  The Phillies were always going to amongst the favorites for the whales, but it wasn’t until their owner came out and said “we’re going to spend some stupid money” that they became the big bad wolf.  The reason I believe this to be promising (at least for Harper) is the Phillies have positioned they won’t be topped (including for Corbin) and then proceeded to be topped.  As eager as their owner may be to spend, I truly don’t believe he’s going to pull a Tom Hicks and bid against himself to ensure they have the biggest offer.  And if it’s true the front office is putting some guardrails in place, then that’s a win for us IMO.

[TheTruth05]

9 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

We don't know the AAV they offered for 5 years, it could well be that Nats outbid them on AAV, or they aren't comfortable going 6 on a pitcher.

Between not adding an SP and shredding Santana's salary, Phillies may even be able to add both Manny/Harper, then trade someone like Kingery for an SP.

And also let's consider that both Manny and Harper will go to the highest bidder, so if neither Yanks or Phillies committed expenditure on a top tier SP, the agents will likely use their now higher than expected budget to bid against one another, driving up the contracts and eliminating Sox out of the picture.

I like your optimism CWS, but I think this is the first and last blow to any chance we had.

OTOH, this is a really hopeful outlook for the Phillies on your part. Their owner said they were ready to be "a little stupid". 1 more guaranteed year for Corbin is just the right amount of stupid to secure a major piece you're targeting.

[raBBit]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Most fair market value deals are terrible deals for people. That's why you can't win on the free agent market unless you already have a good team.

That's not true whatsoever. 

[Colinski]

I think this helps us get Harper, hear me out.

according to Passan Nats were 15% to sign Harper, that surely now drops to near 0%. Some of that could come our way.

in my view Yankees want Machado, as that’s more of a need given thier outfield. Surprisingly Passan has them at 40% in the Harper stakes. LETS SAY they sign Machado, knocking them down to 0% also. That’s now 55% of the Harper field out.

 

Assuming Passan is right (big stretch) and that Yankees sign say Happ and Machado (smaller stretch), that leave really just us, the Phillies and the field (cubs, dodgers etc) in the Harper race.

thats a race we can win.

not saying in right. I’m just saying this could help us get the whale.

 

edit: say Yankees get Harper, that’s then out of the Machado race and we become a front runner in that one. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by Colinski

[raBBit]

27 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think Harper is done with the Nats. If he wanted to be there he would be there already. The Nats have had great pitching for years and still haven't advanced in the playoffs. I think he wants to build a name brand for himself. 

I agree. They have Soto and Robles who are young studs with at least 6 years of control each. Then they have Adam Eaton. Then they have Michael Taylor for when Eaton gets hurt. 

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, raBBit said:

That's not true whatsoever. 

I defy you to name some. Even the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers are winning on the strength of guys they developed, not their free agent signings. 

[wrathofhahn]

This is one of the worst contracts in baseball. Guy has mediocre stuff and is a one hit wonder what are they thinking?

[raBBit]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I defy you to name some. Even the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers are winning on the strength of guys they developed, not their free agent signings. 

The Cubs before they got good.

They signed Jason Hammel and traded him in a package for their World Series SS and another notable prospect

They signed Jon Lester coming off of a 73 win season. 

They signed Matt Garza and traded him for 2 relievers on the World Series roster and another notable prospect.

They signed Scott Feldman and traded him for a TOR starter and a back end reliever.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, wrathofhahn said:

This is one of the worst contracts in baseball. Guy has mediocre stuff and is a one hit wonder what are they thinking?

Didn't he have one of the best swinging strike percentages in all of baseball?  His slider is legit.

[Balta1701]

Just now, raBBit said:

The Cubs before they got good.

They signed Jason Hammel and traded him in a package for their World Series SS and another notable prospect

They signed Jon Lester coming off of a 73 win season. 

They signed Matt Garza and traded him for 2 relievers on the World Series roster and another notable prospect.

They signed Scott Feldman and traded him for a TOR starter and a back end reliever.

And that was the year they brought Bryant up and had Arrieta win the Cy Young. Bryant alone was a 6 fWAR player that year.

[raBBit]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And that was the year they brought Bryant up and had Arrieta win the Cy Young. Bryant alone was a 6 fWAR player that year.

What's your point? They were a team that wasn't good and benefited off of free agency? You said that's impossible. It wasn't and it's not.

EDIT: They only had Arrieta because they signed a free agent in a year they sucked and traded that player for Arrieta.

Edited December 4, 2018 by raBBit

[wrathofhahn]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

Didn't he have one of the best swinging strike percentages in all of baseball?  His slider is legit.

Which year? So was Ricky Romeros for a time.

It's only legit if hitters chase and he doesn't have the kind of dominating fastball that will cause hitters to speed up their bat

Edited December 4, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[southsider2k5]

If anyone wonders why I am preaching patience and letting people develop over time while hoarding cheap and young talent, look no further than this deal.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, raBBit said:

What's your point? They were a team that wasn't good and benefited off of free agency? You said that's impossible. It wasn't and it's not.

EDIT: They only had Arrieta because they signed a free agent in a year they sucked and traded that player for Arrieta.

But that sure as heckfire wasn't a big money free agent signing. It was a rebuilding move, trading away for a guy who had flopped on his current team. Totally go do that. That is slightly different from paying $140 million for a Patrick Corbin or $150 million for a Lester. 

Playing a bottom feeder, rebuilding, signing a handful of low dollar value free agents, making trades, and being better at development and drafting than other teams - that can build you a solid foundation. It doesn't have to be all at the draft.

But if you think you're taking a 62 win team and turning it into a 90 win team on the free agent market in 1 season...you better have some huge breakout guys and a couple Kris Bryants already on your roster.

[thxfrthmmrs]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think you’re missing some context here.  I’ve pointed out in here & perhaps other threads that the Phillies front office is said to be conservative.  The Phillies were always going to amongst the favorites for the whales, but it wasn’t until their owner came out and said “we’re going to spend some stupid money” that they became the big bad wolf.  The reason I believe this to be promising (at least for Harper) is the Phillies have positioned they won’t be topped (including for Corbin) and then proceeded to be topped.  As eager as their owner may be to spend, I truly don’t believe he’s going to pull a Tom Hicks and bid against himself to ensure they have the biggest offer.  And if it’s true the front office is putting some guardrails in place, then that’s a win for us IMO.

 

27 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

OTOH, this is a really hopeful outlook for the Phillies on your part. Their owner said they were ready to be "a little stupid". 1 more guaranteed year for Corbin is just the right amount of stupid to secure a major piece you're targeting.

You guys don’t believe an owner is stupid enough show his hand in the most expensive deal in his lifetime, do you? It’s absolutely a decoy to drive up bidding for someone you’re not after to eliminate competitors for guys you’re really after. Why? Owners usually has the last say in handing out a deal, the fact that MacPhail said what he said and did not follow through when he has the finally blessing suggested it was a bait. Look at how it worked out - Nats knew Phillies had interest in Corbin and they went overboard and handed a deal to him no one saw coming - and guess what? They were one of the destinations for Harper and now they might be out of the race. Now Phillies will likely focus their attention on the real targets.

On top of that, they could also now use the narrative that Nationals did not believe in Bryce and spent their money on a worse player instead. By signin with Phillies he could win division races against his former team and homer against the said player everytime they play. Harper strikes me as someone who would buy into that.