Update per Heyman: White Sox one of 3 teams meeting Machado

[Quin]

If we sign Machado, the 8 pages of Machado vs. 120+ of Harper are just gonna look silly

[103 mph screwball]

The stats support Machado over Harper.  Machado had his success in the American League.  Eloy will be the face of the franchise.  Sign Machado.  Probably for less than Harper.

[ptatc]

12 minutes ago, 103 mph screwball said:

The stats support Machado over Harper.  Machado had his success in the American League.  Eloy will be the face of the franchise.  Sign Machado.  Probably for less than Harper.

I'm sure his contract will be less than Harper.

On MLB they were saying his contract could be a 1 year deal with a 9 year mutual option with the Yankees. A one year testing period. Really weird.

[ChiSox59]

35 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I'm sure his contract will be less than Harper.

On MLB they were saying his contract could be a 1 year deal with a 9 year mutual option with the Yankees. A one year testing period. Really weird.

It was Dan Odowds crazy suggestion. Suppose it’s possible if Machado really wants NY and the Yankees say they need a test run, but he’d be leaving an awful lot of money on the table. I don’t see it. 

[Goober]

Dirty player? 5 other times Manny Machado has been involved in questionable plays

https://www.tmj4.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers/dirty-player-5-other-times-manny-machado-has-been-involved-in-questionable-plays

 

F that piece of trash

[daggins]

I want the Sox to get guys who are good at baseball. Full stop. I want Machado on this team.

[caulfield12]

Logically, he's a "buy lower" candidate because of the Johnny Hustle comments and the fact that he's not a marketer's dream like Harper...in terms of the White Sox ability to put together a playoff team, he's a much better fit.

That said, they really need to sign one of the two or we'll be right back to the default position of "wouldn't they be better off selling or moving to Portland?" for at least another year.   The Kopech, Giolito and Moncada setbacks last year were tough on even the most die-hard of fans.

At least we're not the Redskins or Bulls?

Edited December 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It was Dan Odowds crazy suggestion. Suppose it’s possible if Machado really wants NY and the Yankees say they need a test run, but he’d be leaving an awful lot of money on the table. I don’t see it. 

I think it's too weird as well. Just throwing it out there from the report. 

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I think it's too weird as well. Just throwing it out there from the report. 

Pretty sure Machado's agent would hit him over the head with the business end of a 2x4 if he took that deal.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Pretty sure Machado's agent would hit him over the head with the business end of a 2x4 if he took that deal.

They did say that the one year deal would be between 40-50 million, so the agent might show some restraint for that payday. Plus he would be a free agent again in a year that doesn't have Harper involved.

But again, still too weird.

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

They did say that the one year deal would be between 40-50 million, so the agent might show some restraint for that payday. Plus he would be a free agent again in a year that doesn't have Harper involved.

But again, still too weird.

That's so much uncertainty though.  Could wind up costing him a hundred mil or so.

[103 mph screwball]

I wonder how many millions of dollars the hustle comment and the dirty play cost him?   

I still want him because he is better at baseball than Harper.  

[turnin' two]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:57 AM, Dam8610 said:

One outlier season vs. consistent production. I'll take the consistent production every time if I'm betting this much money on it.

That is completely fair.  But so far at their best, Harper's best is better.  And in terms of consistency, Harper's career OPS is only .005 points below Manny's career best, and .078 points above his career number.  That is about the difference between Abreu and Avi last season.  Machado's career OPS is the same as Mike Napoli's (.001 better, actually).  Harper's is better than guys like Harmon Killebrew (.016 better) Eddie Mathews ( .015 better) and Willie McCovey (.011 better).  Not saying he is better, but at this point in his career, he has a better OPS (.900).  He twice has put up OPS numbers better than 1.000.  Manny has put up numbers over .900 once, this season, at .905, playing half his games in a notorious hitters park.  Manny Machado's OPS at this point in his career is .002 better than Harold Baines' career number, including the .661 OPS he put up in his age 41-42 seasons.  

Another thing you have to consider is how the guy will age, and I think Harper's skill set, of OBP and SLG will age better than Machado's defense. 

I will be thrilled if the Sox get either one of these guys.  Personally I prefer Harper, but I see that a case could be made either way.  I just don't see how you can state one is better than the other as if it is a fact.  

 

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

That is completely fair.  But so far at their best, Harper's best is better.  And in terms of consistency, Harper's career OPS is only .005 points below Manny's career best, and .078 points above his career number.  That is about the difference between Abreu and Avi last season.  Machado's career OPS is the same as Mike Napoli's (.001 better, actually).  Harper's is better than guys like Harmon Killebrew (.016 better) Eddie Mathews ( .015 better) and Willie McCovey (.011 better).  Not saying he is better, but at this point in his career, he has a better OPS (.900).  He twice has put up OPS numbers better than 1.000.  Manny has put up numbers over .900 once, this season, at .905, playing half his games in a notorious hitters park.  Manny Machado's OPS at this point in his career is .002 better than Harold Baines' career number, including the .661 OPS he put up in his age 41-42 seasons.  

Another thing you have to consider is how the guy will age, and I think Harper's skill set, of OBP and SLG will age better than Machado's defense. 

I will be thrilled if the Sox get either one of these guys.  Personally I prefer Harper, but I see that a case could be made either way.  I just don't see how you can state one is better than the other as if it is a fact.  

 

I think it's mostly due to the overall game and WAR. WAR will include defense so that's where Machado has the advantage. If they both sign 10 year deals, that puts them at 36. Machado's defense shouldn't slip that much by then, especially if he eventually moves to 3B.

Edited December 14, 2018 by ptatc

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I think it's mostly due to the overall game and WAR. Was will include defense so that's where Machado has the advantage. If they both sign 10 year deals, that puts them at 36. Machado's defense should slip that much by then, especially if he eventually moves to 3B.

Yeah, I get it, and if you were to say that Manny is definitively the better defensive player.  OK that is true.  But I think you could also say flat out that Harper is the better offensive player.  How you come to terms with those two things is where your opinion ends up.  For me, I prefer the better bat.

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah, I get it, and if you were to say that Manny is definitively the better defensive player.  OK that is true.  But I think you could also say flat out that Harper is the better offensive player.  How you come to terms with those two things is where your opinion ends up.  For me, I prefer the better bat.

Agreed. But at the same if you compared the overall player, offensive and defense, I think there is little doubt Machado is better because the difference in the offense isn't that great compared to the difference in defense. Machado had an OPS of 905 last year, Harper 889. Harper has a career 900, Machado 822. So i don't think it's a question of offense vs. defense, it's more of a difference in star power and offense vs. overall player.

They can't go wrong with either player. They are both massive upgrades for the Sox.

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

I'm sure his contract will be less than Harper.

On MLB they were saying his contract could be a 1 year deal with a 9 year mutual option with the Yankees. A one year testing period. Really weird.

This is beyond stupid. His agent will easily be able to get a long term deal with multiple opt outs if he wants it why would he settle for a mutual option. Makes no sense and not happening.

I do think Machado is the better option not just because I'll be accused of racism for suggesting otherwise. The problem is neither are good options. Machado fills more of a need but his bat has been suspect far too many seasons and he has character concerns. Harper defense is shit already at 26 plays our deepest position prospect wise and on a longterm deal the question remains can he stick in RF or even LF.

Because if he can't he basically turns into a less consistent hitting JD Martinez and cuts down what his expectations should be in FA, For me I'd probably give him 8 years at 28 million considering what JD got and accounting for age. He'll get more by someone else. If we are going 10 years and have to sign one of these guys give me the guy in Machado who I know barring injury can at least play 3B for the next 6-7 years of his deal.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

This is beyond stupid. His agent will easily be able to get a long term deal with multiple opt outs if he wants it why would he settle for a mutual option. Makes no sense and not happening.

I do think Machado is the better option not just because I'll be accused of racism for suggesting otherwise. The problem is neither are good options. Machado fills more of a need but his bat has been suspect far too many seasons and he has character concerns. Harper defense is shit already at 26 plays our deepest position prospect wise and on a longterm deal the question remains can he stick in RF or even LF.

Because if he can't he basically turns into a less consistent hitting JD Martinez and cuts down what his expectations should be in FA, For me I'd probably give him 8 years at 28 million considering what JD got and accounting for age. He'll get more by someone else. If we are going 10 years and have to sign one of these guys give me the guy in Machado who I know barring injury can at least play 3B for the next 6-7 years of his deal.

Lol...neither are good options?  

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Logically, he's a "buy lower" candidate because of the Johnny Hustle comments and the fact that he's not a marketer's dream like Harper...in terms of the White Sox ability to put together a playoff team, he's a much better fit.

That said, they really need to sign one of the two or we'll be right back to the default position of "wouldn't they be better off selling or moving to Portland?" for at least another year.   The Kopech, Giolito and Moncada setbacks last year were tough on even the most die-hard of fans.

At least we're not the Redskins or Bulls?

The White Sox have kind of been baseball's Redskins recently ("win" the offseason, have a terrible season, repeat).

Edited December 14, 2018 by Dam8610

[wrathofhahn]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...neither are good options?  

Nope. They are going to be way overpaid Harper has been 34th in WAR the last 3 years Machado 13th.

They are good allstar type players but will be paid like they are perennial MVPs while they only have a couple of those type of seasons between them. I'm sorry but as a GM you shouldn't have to spend 40 million to accrue 5 WAR. I know GM's often do but the good ones don't.

Edited December 14, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Nope. They are going to be way overpaid Harper has been 34th in WAR the last 3 years Machado 15th.

They are good allstar type players but will be paid like they are perennial MVPs while they only have a couple of those type of seasons between them.

Seems like you care more about surplus value than actually winning baseball games.  They’re also 26 years old and just entering their prime.  You are paying fthem for their future production and not what they’ve done in the past.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Seems like you care more about surplus value than actually winning baseball games.  They’re also 26 years old and just entering their prime.  You are paying fthem for their future production and not what they’ve done in the past.

I care because that matters when you are not the Redsox or Yankees. If Machado is giving us 5 WAR at 3B but as a result of his salary we have a DH who can't hit we could very well lose more then we gain.

This isn't basketball where you can just throw Lebron around a bunch of scrubs and win over 60 percent of your games. You actually have to be able to build a team and fillout a roster

[Dam8610]

38 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

That is completely fair.  But so far at their best, Harper's best is better.  And in terms of consistency, Harper's career OPS is only .005 points below Manny's career best, and .078 points above his career number.  That is about the difference between Abreu and Avi last season.  Machado's career OPS is the same as Mike Napoli's (.001 better, actually).  Harper's is better than guys like Harmon Killebrew (.016 better) Eddie Mathews ( .015 better) and Willie McCovey (.011 better).  Not saying he is better, but at this point in his career, he has a better OPS (.900).  He twice has put up OPS numbers better than 1.000.  Manny has put up numbers over .900 once, this season, at .905, playing half his games in a notorious hitters park.  Manny Machado's OPS at this point in his career is .002 better than Harold Baines' career number, including the .661 OPS he put up in his age 41-42 seasons.  

Another thing you have to consider is how the guy will age, and I think Harper's skill set, of OBP and SLG will age better than Machado's defense. 

I will be thrilled if the Sox get either one of these guys.  Personally I prefer Harper, but I see that a case could be made either way.  I just don't see how you can state one is better than the other as if it is a fact.  

 

Machado is consistently a 6 WAR player, while Harper is consistently a 4.5 WAR player. I'm not saying one is better than the other, WAR is.

Basically, I see them as a 6-7 WAR bat with -1.5 to -2.5 defense (Harper) vs. a 4-5 WAR bat with 1-2 WAR defense (Machado). Based on those profiles, I see Machado as the safer bet. YMMV.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

They can't go wrong with either player. They are both massive upgrades for the Sox.

This is the most important point.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Tony said:

It’s just such a shockingly bad take. The Sox could add Harper AND Machado to the 2019 roster and still be in the bottom half of payrolls in MLB. And you’re so concerned about adding one of them, you’re advising against it. 

I fully understand the White Sox will never be the Dodgers or Yankees, but take off the kid gloves.

And the whole reason we had to rebuild in the first place is we lacked guys who could provide 2 to 3 WAR seasons.  Our system should be deep enough now to provide players like that.  What we need on top of that is star level players.  Not using our financial flexibility to add a player like that, even if it would be a slight overpay, would be incredibly short-sighted.