Update per Heyman: White Sox one of 3 teams meeting Machado

[turnin' two]

54 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Machado is consistently a 6 WAR player, while Harper is consistently a 4.5 WAR player. I'm not saying one is better than the other, WAR is.

Basically, I see them as a 6-7 WAR bat with -1.5 to -2.5 defense (Harper) vs. a 4-5 WAR bat with 1-2 WAR defense (Machado). Based on those profiles, I see Machado as the safer bet. YMMV.

Yeah, and before his contract WAR said Jason Heyward was a 5-6 WAR player every year.  It also said that before his contract JD Martinez was a 2 WAR player, or if you exclude his time with Houston, a 4 WAR player.  Which would you have rather have?

WAR can be wrong.  It can over value defense.  That is how Yolmer was a 3.5 WAR player.  And how Adam Eaton was 5-6 WAR player with the Sox.  WAR says Matt Chapman was the 3rd best player in baseball last year.  You got him there behind Betts and Trout?  By WAR, Andrelton Simmons is a 5 WAR player every year, and Charlie Blackmon is 2.  Giancarlo is 4.  I doubt the open market would value Simmons more than Stanton or Blackmon.  Using 1 stat, even WAR as the end all be all, is not the appropriate way to evaluate a player.  Heck, it has nothing to do with defense, but WAR said Chris Davis was a 4 WAR player in his time with the O's before his contract.

If Manny is signed to play SS, that is a huge detriment to his value as well, as his defense is a huge part of his WAR, and he is elite at 3B, and pretty so so at SS.

Again, not trying to bash Manny, and I'd be thrilled if the Sox sign him.  Just saying there is a case for each player, and I think their free agencies will bear that out.

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by turnin' two

[wrathofhahn]

20 minutes ago, Tony said:

It’s just such a shockingly bad take. The Sox could add Harper AND Machado to the 2019 roster and still be in the bottom half of payrolls in MLB. And you’re so concerned about adding one of them, you’re advising against it. 

I fully understand the White Sox will never be the Dodgers or Yankees, but take off the kid gloves.

And where would the roster be? Do you think even by some happenstance we sign both of them we make the playoffs? I don't this team has holes everywhere and even the guys we are sort of penciling in are more penciled in because of their age and how they are viewed organizationally not by merit of what they did last year.

We really only have one guy we can sort of pencil in as an above average bat for us in 2018 Abreu and even he is coming off a down year. Our rotation we had Rodon who despite his stuff still has yet to put it together as evidenced by his 4.95 FIP. We have Lopez who wore down significantly as the season moved along and ultimately maybe a bullpen guy and we have a new guy in Nova. That's three guys who performed like number 4's last year. Shields was smoke and mirrors plus is gone. Gio is a mess.

So what is the plan for this 100 loss team? When I look at the WAR totals on the rest of the roster I see easily best way for us to get better is not to sign Harper or Machado it's to replace Engel, Replace Delmonico. Get a real DH. You assume you replace those three with 2.5 WAR guys basically what Sanchez was for us last year you've improved the roster by 7 WAR.

That is without moving to the rotation where everyone who had 100IP or more had a - WAR.

 

[Lillian]

If Machado is not willing to play third, that would argue strongly for not signing him. Not only would it negatively impact his WAR, but it would indicate that he is not the team player, that he is purported to be. You play where your team needs you to play, period. This guy has enough issues, regarding his character, without adding "selfish" to his profile.

I want to hear him state; "I know that I can contribute to the team, anywhere in the infield, that they put me. I just want to help them win a championship."  Of course, it's cliched, but it's the right way to think. The last thing this young team needs is a selfish, "prima donna" to set a bad example and ruin what seems to be a good team chemistry, especially for that kind of money!!

Edited December 14, 2018 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

And where would the roster be? Do you think even by some happenstance we sign both of them we make the playoffs? I don't this team has holes everywhere and even the guys we are sort of penciling in are more penciled in because of their age and how they are viewed organizationally not by merit of what they did last year.

We really only have one guy we can sort of pencil in as an above average bat for us in 2018 Abreu and even he is coming off a down year. Our rotation we had Rodon who despite his stuff still has yet to put it together as evidenced by his 4.95 FIP. We have Lopez who wore down significantly as the season moved along and ultimately maybe a bullpen guy and we have a new guy in Nova. That's three guys who performed like number 4's last year. Shields was smoke and mirrors plus is gone. Gio is a mess.

So what is the plan for this 100 loss team? When I look at the WAR totals on the rest of the roster I see easily best way for us to get better is not to sign Harper or Machado it's to replace Engel, Replace Delmonico. Get a real DH. You assume you replace those three with 2.5 WAR guys basically what Sanchez was for us last year you've improved the roster by 7 WAR.

That is without moving to the rotation where everyone who had 100IP or more had a - WAR.

 

Lopez wore down significantly as the season moved along?  Did you even watch him last year?  His best month was far & away September and his second best was August.  He was a much improved pitcher down the stretch.  He was also was 24 years old in his first major league season.  To suggest he might ultimately be a bullpen guy based on his 2018 performance is quite frankly ridiculous.

[ptatc]

20 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If Machado is not willing to play third, that would argue strongly for not signing him. Not only would it negatively impact his WAR, but it would indicate that he is not the team player, that he is purported to be. You play where your team needs you to play, period. This guy has enough issues, regarding his character, without adding "selfish" to his profile.

I want to hear him state; "I know that I can contribute to the team, anywhere in the infield, that they put me. I just want to help them win a championship."  Of course, it's cliched, but it's the right way to think. The last thing this young team needs is a selfish, "prima donna" to set a bad example and ruin what seems to be a good team chemistry, especially for that kind of money!!

I don't think you'll hear him say that.  If the Sox sign Machado, I think you'll see Anderson in CF.

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If Machado is not willing to play third, that would argue strongly for not signing him. Not only would it negatively impact his WAR, but it would indicate that he is not the team player, that he is purported to be. You play where your team needs you to play, period. This guy has enough issues, regarding his character, without adding "selfish" to his profile.

I want to hear him state; "I know that I can contribute to the team, anywhere in the infield, that they put me. I just want to help them win a championship."  Of course, it's cliched, but it's the right way to think. The last thing this young team needs is a selfish, "prima donna" to set a bad example and ruin what seems to be a good team chemistry, especially for that kind of money!!

We aren’t his team, so he has no obligation to sign with us to play a position he doesn’t want to play.  That doesn’t make him selfish in the slightest.  That’s like calling a guy who wants to close selfish for not signing with a team that wants him to be a setup man.  Also, didn’t he play some 3B for the Dodgers down the stretch?  This borderline hatred some people on the board have for Machado is simply bizarre IMO.

[Sarava]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We aren’t his team, so he has no obligation to sign with us to play a position he doesn’t want to play.  That doesn’t make him selfish in the slightest.  That’s like calling a guy who wants to close selfish for not signing with a team that wants him to be a setup man.  Also, didn’t he play some 3B for the Dodgers down the stretch?  This borderline hatred some people on the board have for Machado is simply bizarre IMO.

I agree with this. If Machado wants to play SS, and puts that out front now before he has signed anywhere, that's cool. That said, I don't want the Sox spending 350+ mil on him if that is the case. To me he is not worth that kind of money as a SS.

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I agree with this. If Machado wants to play SS, and puts that out front now before he has signed anywhere, that's cool. That said, I don't want the Sox spending 350+ mil on him if that is the case. To me he is not worth that kind of money as a SS.

I would certainly offer him less if he was adamant on playing SS.

[Boopa1219]

I would give him SS money but he’s playing third for me. Anderson is better defensively, he has way better range and he took some massive strides with his defense as the season progressed 

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I would give him SS money but he’s playing third for me. Anderson is better defensively, he has way better range and he took some massive strides with his defense as the season progressed 

Then he probably won't sign here.  Do you sign him if he insists on playing  SS?

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Then he probably won't sign here.  Do you sign him if he insists on playing  SS?

I don’t think we know for sure that he’s dead-set on playing.  I know I personally think that was to increase his market and he’ll go wherever the money is now, but that’s just my speculation.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think we know for sure that he’s dead-set on playing.  I know I personally think that was to increase his market and he’ll go wherever the money is now, but that’s just my speculation.

Agreed 100%. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Agreed 100%. 

And based on rumors, he doesn’t even have a huge market.  I think the Sox & Phillies would both prefer to play him at 3B.  The Yankees could probaly go either way depending on when Didi returns.  At pthis point, Machado demanding he play SS could cost him money if it scares off even one team.  I really don’t think he has the leverage to make a demand like that.

[southsider2k5]

 

[Dam8610]

9 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah, and before his contract WAR said Jason Heyward was a 5-6 WAR player every year.  It also said that before his contract JD Martinez was a 2 WAR player, or if you exclude his time with Houston, a 4 WAR player.  Which would you have rather have?

WAR can be wrong.  It can over value defense.  That is how Yolmer was a 3.5 WAR player.  And how Adam Eaton was 5-6 WAR player with the Sox.  WAR says Matt Chapman was the 3rd best player in baseball last year.  You got him there behind Betts and Trout?  By WAR, Andrelton Simmons is a 5 WAR player every year, and Charlie Blackmon is 2.  Giancarlo is 4.  I doubt the open market would value Simmons more than Stanton or Blackmon.  Using 1 stat, even WAR as the end all be all, is not the appropriate way to evaluate a player.  Heck, it has nothing to do with defense, but WAR said Chris Davis was a 4 WAR player in his time with the O's before his contract.

If Manny is signed to play SS, that is a huge detriment to his value as well, as his defense is a huge part of his WAR, and he is elite at 3B, and pretty so so at SS.

Again, not trying to bash Manny, and I'd be thrilled if the Sox sign him.  Just saying there is a case for each player, and I think their free agencies will bear that out.

 

Jason Heyward was far less consistent than Machado and never produced a 6 WAR season (Machado has 3 6 WAR seasons in his last 4). If anything, he's defense based Harper-lite.

[he gone.]

10 hours ago, Tony said:

It’s just such a shockingly bad take. The Sox could add Harper AND Machado to the 2019 roster and still be in the bottom half of payrolls in MLB. And you’re so concerned about adding one of them, you’re advising against it. 

I fully understand the White Sox will never be the Dodgers or Yankees, but take off the kid gloves.

True and false. Yes we'd be fine now. I think you just look at the Astros situation because they are probably the most similar to us. Meaning Houston is a big market, but generally does not spend like one. However they'll open up the checkbook to if the timing is right to make a prolonged run. I think that's probably the situation JR is in right now with his age. I can see him going on a 5-10 year binge of trying to get a WS (ala the Tigers) and then handing the team off or selling it.

So that being said, the Astros started with almost nothing too. It's not year 1 or 2 or probably even 3 for the Sox that gets expensive with Harper and Machado. It's when the Eloy's start going to arb as well as your Kopechs, and Lopez, and Burdi, Moncada, Rodon, and Robert ,etc. etc. etc.

You also have to think you'll likely add yourself a Verlander or some other veteran pitcher like a Greinke or whoever for a playoff run for a year or two on a trade... things add up quickly. They're talking $170mm+ in Houston which I think the Sox would do in the right situation, but still is a stretch.

Also somewhere in the 10 years of Machado and Harper you're looking at signing Rodon, Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, etc. etc. If those guys all turn out well then you're making the call between 32 year old machado and 26 year old Eloy...

It's not all about today - its about setting up the team for long term, reoccurring success.

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

True and false. Yes we'd be fine now. I think you just look at the Astros situation because they are probably the most similar to us. Meaning Houston is a big market, but generally does not spend like one. However they'll open up the checkbook to if the timing is right to make a prolonged run. I think that's probably the situation JR is in right now with his age. I can see him going on a 5-10 year binge of trying to get a WS (ala the Tigers) and then handing the team off or selling it.

So that being said, the Astros started with almost nothing too. It's not year 1 or 2 or probably even 3 for the Sox that gets expensive with Harper and Machado. It's when the Eloy's start going to arb as well as your Kopechs, and Lopez, and Burdi, Moncada, Rodon, and Robert ,etc. etc. etc.

You also have to think you'll likely add yourself a Verlander or some other veteran pitcher like a Greinke or whoever for a playoff run for a year or two on a trade... things add up quickly. They're talking $170mm+ in Houston which I think the Sox would do in the right situation, but still is a stretch.

Also somewhere in the 10 years of Machado and Harper you're looking at signing Rodon, Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, etc. etc. If those guys all turn out well then you're making the call between 32 year old machado and 26 year old Eloy...

It's not all about today - its about setting up the team for long term, reoccurring success.

One other point about the Astros - note that they're not resigning everyone. This year they're letting their utility guy walk (Gonzalez) and he was huge in their world series season, and they're letting 2 starting pitchers walk - Morton and Keuchel, because they believe they can replace them. If your team is drafting well, then you can afford to take some losses of guys and still remain competitive because the players in your system should be able to fill in for some guys as they walk, or they should be tradeable assets to fill in gaps. The Astros may still do something in their rotation, but right now Luhnow's talking about how he has confidence in his young pitchers stepping into roles at the back side of the rotation. 

That may not last forever when you're drafting in the 20s, but it can last for years, and if you're willing to trade an Eloy Jiminez a year or two before he hits free agency then you can push that even farther. 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think we know for sure that he’s dead-set on playing.  I know I personally think that was to increase his market and he’ll go wherever the money is now, but that’s just my speculation.

I think Machado's preference is to play SS.  He wants to play SS.  I don't think the Sox will sign him if he is dead set on SS, and isn't fully on board to play 3B.  He is an average SS, and a gold glove quality 3B.  I do think he eventually agrees to play 3B, unless he signs with the Yankees.  They have a need at SS for 2019 with Didi perhaps out until August, and then DiDi is a FA. 

I've been pretty outspoken here about preferring Machado to Harper.  He is a much better fit, assuming he is willing to play 3B and won't pout about it.  But I honestly think Machado is a Yankee, UNLESS......the Sox sign Harper, remain in the Machado race, and the Yankees still refuse to give a long-term contract.  I do think we could see some sort of unique contract with the Yankees with super high AAV in the first 3-4 year, and then a series of low AAV player options.  Manny would leave money on the table, but he could get something like $180-200M over a 4 year span with the Yankees, and then explore FA again,  Most in the know think he wants to be a Yankee, 

Edited December 14, 2018 by ChiSox59

[he gone.]

53 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One other point about the Astros - note that they're not resigning everyone. This year they're letting their utility guy walk (Gonzalez) and he was huge in their world series season, and they're letting 2 starting pitchers walk - Morton and Keuchel, because they believe they can replace them. If your team is drafting well, then you can afford to take some losses of guys and still remain competitive because the players in your system should be able to fill in for some guys as they walk, or they should be tradeable assets to fill in gaps. The Astros may still do something in their rotation, but right now Luhnow's talking about how he has confidence in his young pitchers stepping into roles at the back side of the rotation. 

That may not last forever when you're drafting in the 20s, but it can last for years, and if you're willing to trade an Eloy Jiminez a year or two before he hits free agency then you can push that even farther. 

This.

Which is why it's probably best not to sign both guys. We will never be in the category of the Cubs, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers. Just not going to happen. Our best case scenario will be Astros, Cardinals, Seattle, Toronto, NYM. Basically teams that stretch their payroll to fit their situations. Right now we're the Royals, Brewers, Cleveland, TB, Pit of the world.

The Astros have handled this amazingly thus far. They are doing their best to be the Cardinals who I personally think have done the best at this over the past 20-30 years. Constantly retooling, calculating, making decisions of when to go big (offers to price, Stanton, etc.) and when to back down and trade assets or let them go (Pujols). That's the dream scenario for the Sox. Your room for error if you sign two massive FA is almost zero. Better to just sign one.

[fathom]

Not even joking when I say the Sox should get Ozzie involved with Manny’s visit here. Ozzie has known Manny since he was a child.

[ChiSox59]

12 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

This.

Which is why it's probably best not to sign both guys. We will never be in the category of the Cubs, Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers. Just not going to happen. Our best case scenario will be Astros, Cardinals, Seattle, Toronto, NYM. Basically teams that stretch their payroll to fit their situations. Right now we're the Royals, Brewers, Cleveland, TB, Pit of the world.

I think this is just not true.  Before the rebuild, the Sox were consistently in the second tier of team spending after the Red Sox and Yankees.  In the last few seasons, the Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs payrolls have skyrocketed.  From 2006-2013, the Sox average payroll was $111M.  This ranked 8th in the MLB, but of those 7 teams ahead of them, only two were above $130M.  Most were right around the Sox. 

Prior to tearing things down, the Sox consistently operated as a large market team.  There is no reason to believe that once they're done rebuilding, that they won't return to that.  Our owner is now in his 80s and is going to want to build a winner before he dies.  I think the Sox at the very least return to payroll in the $130-$140M range in 2020-2025, and perhaps even higher.  With virtually nothing on the payroll after 2019, the Sox can most definitely afford to bring in both Harper and Machado.  Now whether or not they can actually get them both to sign on the dotted line is a different story.  

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

Not even joking when I say the Sox should get Ozzie involved with Manny’s visit here. Ozzie has known Manny since he was a child.

Would you really trust Ozzie with the future face of the franchise?  I wouldn't.

[he gone.]

Isn't that kind of what I said though? I think our best case scenario is the second tier... teams 6-12. Those are the teams that stretch during a good run. That's what we were in 2005-2010 and before when we were in the thick of it. I personally wouldn't evne want to be a Top 5 spending team. I'd rather be in the second tier with the Astros, NYM, Toronto, etc. The prices to attend a Cubs or Yanks game isn't even funny. I'll take subpar ball for 5 year stretches if it means I can arrive late, sit wherever I want and afford a game.

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Isn't that kind of what I said though? I think our best case scenario is the second tier... teams 6-12. Those are the teams that stretch during a good run. That's what we were in 2005-2010 and before when we were in the thick of it. I personally wouldn't evne want to be a Top 5 spending team. I'd rather be in the second tier with the Astros, NYM, Toronto, etc. The prices to attend a Cubs or Yanks game isn't even funny. I'll take subpar ball for 5 year stretches if it means I can arrive late, sit wherever I want and afford a game.

And payrolls in the $150-170M range will be second tier by that point.  The Sox can afford to pay 2 all star caliber players in their prime $90M from 2019-2023.  

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

And payrolls in the $150-170M range will be second tier by that point.  The Sox can afford to pay 2 all star caliber players in their prime $90M from 2019-2023.  

The issue isn't 2019-2023. The issue is can they afford that from 2023-2029 when their young prospects start to hit arbitration years. If they prospects produce to make them competitive, they will be getting expensive starting in 2023.