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Rosenthal: Could Harper be headed to the southside


Sleepy Harold

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2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Fangraphs has him higher than that. 

Sure I prefer DRS and use BR. They also make it much easier carve up the data but regardless of which method you use both say Harper is a bad defender and neither WAR totals justify the kind of contract is looking for. 

He is looking for perennial MVP type money 7-10 WAR. Even fangraphs which is less hard on his defense has him worth 3 WAR, 4.8 WAR, 3.5 WAR the last three years. None of those years justify 40 million AAV

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IMO UZR >>>>> DRS, DRS gets way too funky at the extremes. Every year there are guys at both ends of DRS with absurd numbers that aren't close to what the other defensive metrics capture. It also has too drastic of an effect on bWAR for pitchers. The credit BR gave Nola in 2018 for the Phillies' DRS rating was ridiculous. I'm not putting much stock in Bryce's 2018 DRS numbers.

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8 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Sure I prefer DRS and use BR. They also make it much easier carve up the data but regardless of which method you use both say Harper is a bad defender and neither WAR totals justify the kind of contract is looking for. 

He is looking for perennial MVP type money 7-10 WAR. Even fangraphs which is less hard on his defense has him worth 3 WAR, 4.8 WAR, 3.5 WAR the last three years. None of those years justify 40 million AAV

Remember - the price of 1 WAR on the free agent market is something close to $9 million right now, on average. A $400 million contract is not saying it's a 7-10 WAR player, not these days.

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3 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:

kenwo (I know) spoke to nightengale (I know) and nightingale said we have only a slim chance. Kurkijan said a similar thing on the sox talk podcast. I'm starting to believe them

Nightengale is Bowden levels of bad.

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Just now, timbo8 said:

how well  do you think Eloy will do this year once he bought up?

He's a monster, but he'll also be a 22 year old rookie. The projection systems have him at something in the low .800s of OPS and ~3-ish WAR and I think those numbers are probably reasonable if he's healthy.

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He's a monster, but he'll also be a 22 year old rookie. The projection systems have him at something in the low .800s of OPS and ~3-ish WAR and I think those numbers are probably reasonable if he's healthy.

Once he comes up we should have a predict his numbers thread. I think I was the best when we did that with Abreu. I think I got indirectly accused of cheating like editing after the fact.

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