Rosenthal: Could Harper be headed to the southside

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

That is fine it would be a pretty boring existence if everyone agreed with each other. But I'll at least add some facts to the discussion Harper was worth 1.3 WAR last season. Harper has had three seasons where he been worth 1.5 WAR or less. He has averaged 2.5 WAR, 3.2 WAR/650 PA the last three years.

His defense has been awful and he plays a non premium position. He's valuable hitter but so was JD Martinez. One got 5/110 the other is looking for 10/400. Since 2014 JD Martinez has averaged 5.5 WAR/650, Harper since he was called up 5.0 WAR/650. Sure Harper is younger but he also wants to get paid 40 million until he is 36 and if he is averaging 40 million count me as skeptical he builds much if any surplus value to offset those later years. . JD Martinez will get paid 48 million in first two and if he doesn't opt out around 63 million over his next 3 or 21 AAV taking him through ages 32,33,34.

Fangraphs has him higher than that. 

[KrankinSox]

This whole thing just feels like it is set up to blow up in Jerry's face if we don't land Harper or Machado. I'm on the optimistic side and think we have a good shot to land one of them, but if we don't...

 

-You've had KW/Hahn basically fueling the flames not shooting down speculation

-The sox clearly have enough payroll flexibility to make it happen

-Then the Rosenthal article with a brief mention of jerry not sure the Sox can win a bidding war.

 

I honestly believe we get either Harper or Machado, but if we don't, all of the backlash will be directed toward Jerry. Unless it is publicly stated that the Sox made the biggst offer but just couldn't convince harper to join the team.

[Chicago White Sox]

These meetings are boring as fuck.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, KrankinSox said:

This whole thing just feels like it is set up to blow up in Jerry's face if we don't land Harper or Machado. I'm on the optimistic side and think we have a good shot to land one of them, but if we don't...

 

-You've had KW/Hahn basically fueling the flames not shooting down speculation

-The sox clearly have enough payroll flexibility to make it happen

-Then the Rosenthal article with a brief mention of jerry not sure the Sox can win a bidding war.

 

I honestly believe we get either Harper or Machado, but if we don't, all of the backlash will be directed toward Jerry. Unless it is publicly stated that the Sox made the biggst offer but just couldn't convince harper to join the team.

But that is still on them. Why, if you are a team in Chicago, the city voted players' favorite just about every year, would you be in a position where your team is not desirable even if you are offering top dollar? It would show, A. these clowns let it deteriorate so much that players want to be elsewhere, and/or B. players aren't buying the White Sox are going to be great for years just because they traded all their good players for prospects.

[Sockin]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

These meetings are boring as fuck.

Remember its only 8:30 over there right now.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

This whole thing just feels like it is set up to blow up in Jerry's face if we don't land Harper or Machado. I'm on the optimistic side and think we have a good shot to land one of them, but if we don't...

 

-You've had KW/Hahn basically fueling the flames not shooting down speculation

-The sox clearly have enough payroll flexibility to make it happen

-Then the Rosenthal article with a brief mention of jerry not sure the Sox can win a bidding war.

 

I honestly believe we get either Harper or Machado, but if we don't, all of the backlash will be directed toward Jerry. Unless it is publicly stated that the Sox made the biggst offer but just couldn't convince harper to join the team.

Depending on the contact, I personally won't be that mad if the Harper/Machado sign elsewhere if the money is crazy.  $400M and up, and I don't feel all that bad about it.  I'd just like to see the Sox structure a deal that is super front loaded...heck pay these guys $45-$50M per year for the first 5 years, then give an opt out. with the AAVs dropping to $30-35M thereafter, so that if they don't opt out, its not quite as crushing to the franchise on the backend.  Gives the player a nice front loaded deal with an opt out so they can hit free agency again.  It should keep the player motivated to work hard as they can still cash in again in free agency.  Gives the team some flexibility in that they likely aren't agreeing to a 10-12 year deal.  

But if someone get stupid and offers like 10/$400 all evenly spread across the 10 years, that is going to be a bad deal, and I wouldn't be devastated if the Sox decided to not beat that offer.  

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Sockin said:

Remember its only 8:30 over there right now.

I know, it just feels like nothing is happening.

[hogan873]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I know, it just feels like nothing is happening.

You'd have to think that a Harper or Machado signing will be a catalyst to getting things started.  Hopefully something happens soon.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Depending on the contact, I personally won't be that mad if the Harper/Machado sign elsewhere if the money is crazy.  $400M and up, and I don't feel all that bad about it.  I'd just like to see the Sox structure a deal that is super front loaded...heck pay these guys $45-$50M per year for the first 5 years, then give an opt out. with the AAVs dropping to $30-35M thereafter, so that if they don't opt out, its not quite as crushing to the franchise on the backend.  Gives the player a nice front loaded deal with an opt out so they can hit free agency again.  It should keep the player motivated to work hard as they can still cash in again in free agency.  Gives the team some flexibility in that they likely aren't agreeing to a 10-12 year deal.  

But if someone get stupid and offers like 10/$400 all evenly spread across the 10 years, that is going to be a bad deal, and I wouldn't be devastated if the Sox decided to not beat that offer.  

I'd be ok with 10/$400 evenly spread, because to be worth that deal based on performance the player basically has to put up ~5 to 4 WAR per year over the first 5 years and then, due to inflation, only 2-3 WAR per year over the last couple.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Depending on the contact, I personally won't be that mad if the Harper/Machado sign elsewhere if the money is crazy.  $400M and up, and I don't feel all that bad about it.  I'd just like to see the Sox structure a deal that is super front loaded...heck pay these guys $45-$50M per year for the first 5 years, then give an opt out. with the AAVs dropping to $30-35M thereafter, so that if they don't opt out, its not quite as crushing to the franchise on the backend.  Gives the player a nice front loaded deal with an opt out so they can hit free agency again.  It should keep the player motivated to work hard as they can still cash in again in free agency.  Gives the team some flexibility in that they likely aren't agreeing to a 10-12 year deal.  

But if someone get stupid and offers like 10/$400 all evenly spread across the 10 years, that is going to be a bad deal, and I wouldn't be devastated if the Sox decided to not beat that offer.  

But KW saying what is needed is available now, which he concedes is a year early, but you have to pounce when you can. That infers that next year, what is needed will not be readily available. So he has basically put himself on the spot. 

[GREEDY]

9 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

This whole thing just feels like it is set up to blow up in Jerry's face if we don't land Harper or Machado. I'm on the optimistic side and think we have a good shot to land one of them, but if we don't...

 

-You've had KW/Hahn basically fueling the flames not shooting down speculation

-The sox clearly have enough payroll flexibility to make it happen

-Then the Rosenthal article with a brief mention of jerry not sure the Sox can win a bidding war.

 

I honestly believe we get either Harper or Machado, but if we don't, all of the backlash will be directed toward Jerry. Unless it is publicly stated that the Sox made the biggst offer but just couldn't convince harper to join the team.

The oddest part of this whole Harper/Machado saga was why Hahn/KW were so public with their interest in signing either player.  Why would they be setting themselves up to fail?  I couldn't wrap my brain around it for the longest time.

Well, I finally have at least a crockpot theory as to why they would do this:

How gross would it be if this offseason was a big part of the rebuild plan, Jerry signed off on it before the Sale trade and now that we are here Jerry is getting cold feet.... and Hahn and KW are trying to put pressure on Jerry to keep his end of the bargain.  

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, GREEDY said:

The oddest part of this whole Harper/Machado saga was why Hahn/KW were so public with their interest in signing either player.  Why would they be setting themselves up to fail?  I couldn't wrap my brain around it for the longest time.

Well, I finally have at least a crockpot theory as to why they would do this:

How gross would it be if this offseason was a big part of the rebuild plan, Jerry signed off on it before the Sale trade and now that we are here Jerry is getting cold feet.... and Hahn and KW are trying to put pressure on Jerry to keep his end of the bargain.  

 

I think it's much more simple - they're trying to make sure that the players and agents don't let these deals go down without them involved. They're willing to look bad if they don't get the guys in order to give it their best shot. They may even be willing to bid against themselves to get it done.

Brian Cashman can play coy all he wants, everyone knows he's in on at least one if not both of the guys. That's not normally the case for the White Sox, and they want it to be the case now.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'd be ok with 10/$400 evenly spread, because to be worth that deal based on performance the player basically has to put up ~5 to 4 WAR per year over the first 5 years and then, due to inflation, only 2-3 WAR per year over the last couple.

I'd personally much prefer an effective 5 year $230-240M deal than 10/$400.  The Sox can afford the ~$45M for 5 years, its the backend of the contract that would be crippling if he doesn't maintain superstar status, and is a DH. 

I also think there is something to be said about an opt out being a positive for the team as well.  It gives the player some incentive to remain at the top of their game.  They have another chance at a monster contract at age 31.  If you just lock them up for 10 years, its more more conceivable that they get comfortable, get out of shape, care less about their game, and ultimately become an average player.  Having that ability to cash in again before age 36-38 is definitely worth something.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by ChiSox59

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, GREEDY said:

The oddest part of this whole Harper/Machado saga was why Hahn/KW were so public with their interest in signing either player.  Why would they be setting themselves up to fail?  I couldn't wrap my brain around it for the longest time.

Well, I finally have at least a crockpot theory as to why they would do this:

How gross would it be if this offseason was a big part of the rebuild plan, Jerry signed off on it before the Sale trade and now that we are here Jerry is getting cold feet.... and Hahn and KW are trying to put pressure on Jerry to keep his end of the bargain.  

 

JR is beloved by his employees. These clowns are lucky they get to do what they do. They wouldn't do that to the guy who lets them do it.

I think that although now they claim that 2018 was going to be the hardest part of the rebuild, losing 100 games was not what they had in mind. I think they thought most of their youngsters would have taken bigger steps, and they have to do something to hopefully get them back on track and give some fresh air to the fanbase.  Now they have to leak what they hope gets their fans excited. As long as they sign one of these guys, it will work. If they don't, they are going to suffer a lot more backlash than if they had just operated stealthy as usual. They have basically set themselves up to fail. 

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

15 minutes ago, Sockin said:

Remember its only 8:30 over there right now.

They should hold winter meetings in Europe.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd personally much prefer an effective 5 year $230-240M deal than 10/$400.  The Sox can afford the ~$45M for 5 years, its the backend of the contract that would be crippling if he doesn't maintain superstar status, and is a DH. 

By 2026 that backend shouldn't be crippling. Salaries are nearly doubling every 10 to 15 years, so while $40 million is a lot right now, by that point the average payroll should be approaching $200 million based on current revenue growth.

[GreenSox]

22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

But that is still on them. Why, if you are a team in Chicago, the city voted players' favorite just about every year, would you be in a position where your team is not desirable even if you are offering top dollar? It would show, A. these clowns let it deteriorate so much that players want to be elsewhere, and/or B. players aren't buying the White Sox are going to be great for years just because they traded all their good players for prospects.

Yes, they not only have to high-bid, they have to convince the player that Williams, Hahn and Renteria can turn this into a winning operation.  That's no easy feat of salesmanship.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by GreenSox

[35thstreetswarm]

10 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

The oddest part of this whole Harper/Machado saga was why Hahn/KW were so public with their interest in signing either player.  Why would they be setting themselves up to fail?  I couldn't wrap my brain around it for the longest time.

Well, I finally have at least a crockpot theory as to why they would do this:

How gross would it be if this offseason was a big part of the rebuild plan, Jerry signed off on it before the Sale trade and now that we are here Jerry is getting cold feet.... and Hahn and KW are trying to put pressure on Jerry to keep his end of the bargain.  

 

I’m puzzled as well — it’s reached a point where they will look incredibly foolish and un-savvy if they come up empty handed here.  Maybe it’s the hopeful fan in me talking, but I’m going to apply Occam’s razor to this one and assume they’re talking big because they know they have the payroll flexibility to win this bidding war and intend to do so.

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

By 2026 that backend shouldn't be crippling. Salaries are nearly doubling every 10 to 15 years, so while $40 million is a lot right now, by that point the average payroll should be approaching $200 million based on current revenue growth.

I'll believe that when I see it.  

[steveno89]

7 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I’m puzzled as well — it’s reached a point where they will look incredibly foolish and un-savvy if they come up empty handed here.  Maybe it’s the hopeful fan in me talking, but I’m going to apply Occam’s razor to this one and assume they’re talking big because they know they have the payroll flexibility to win this bidding war and intend to do so.

The public nature of the Harper/Machado interest is a bit strange to me, as the Sox have typically preferred to fly under the radar. I won't be upset if they come up short in signing a Harper/Machado, as they cannot control what the player ultimately decides to do. 

I worry the fanbase will revolt if we do not land a big fish though with so much smoke, which isn't exactly fair. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'll believe that when I see it.  

Just for some specific numbers - in 2011, MLB's average payroll was $101 million, in 2018 it was $139 million. And that's with the players share of revenue declining, which the MLBPA isn't going to allow to continue when the next CBA hits.

[Rowand44]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

The public nature of the Harper/Machado interest is a bit strange to me, as the Sox have typically preferred to fly under the radar. I won't be upset if they come up short in signing a Harper/Machado, as they cannot control what the player ultimately decides to do. 

I worry the fanbase will revolt if we do not land a big fish though with so much smoke, which isn't exactly fair. 

Normally I'd completely agree with this but the front office has pretty much set themselves up for that at this point.  Will only have themselves to blame.

[KrankinSox]

Kind of a silly topic but, we need something to keep us from going crazy:

How much money would you pay to be able to live stream a video feed of the Sox meeting with Harper in his LV suite?

[maggsmaggs]

1 minute ago, Rowand44 said:

Normally I'd completely agree with this but the front office has pretty much set themselves up for that at this point.  Will only have themselves to blame.

Ya, they have not only expressed interest, but kind of exuded confidence about landing a big fish. They have set the expectations high for this free agency.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Just for some specific numbers - in 2011, MLB's average payroll was $101 million, in 2018 it was $139 million. And that's with the players share of revenue declining, which the MLBPA isn't going to allow to continue when the next CBA hits.

$35-40M is going to be crippling even if the Sox payroll is $200M - IF whomever is making those $35-40M dollars is no longer an impact player.  That is all I am saying.  I don't think there is going to be enough inflation in 5 years time that would make the backend of a monster 10/$400M+ contract no big deal if the player is not producing.