Rosenthal: Could Harper be headed to the southside

[bmags]

Re: Harpers D I found this article plausible for why his defense fell off:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/11/20/18104199/bryce-harper-free-agency-defense

Lindbergh attributes it to easing off gas to stay healthy in a FA year with some stuff to back it up.

[NotHahn]

 

 

[bmags]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

$35-40M is going to be crippling even if the Sox payroll is $200M - IF whomever is making those $35-40M dollars is no longer an impact player.  That is all I am saying.  I don't think there is going to be enough inflation in 5 years time that would make the backend of a monster 10/$400M+ contract no big deal if the player is not producing.  

Here is my case:

Having a bad contract is only bad if you need to turn your assets into younger, valuable assets.

If you just need to turn it into freeing up cash, you can move it. You may not move all of it, but you could find a team that's like "yes I could try to get the rest of Bryce Harper as my DH if we make the money work".

If the sox suck and are saying "shoot we need to rebuild, we need to get what we can for Bryce Harper", then they are screwed, but that is the case anyway.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

$35-40M is going to be crippling even if the Sox payroll is $200M - IF whomever is making those $35-40M dollars is no longer an impact player.  That is all I am saying.  I don't think there is going to be enough inflation in 5 years time that would make the backend of a monster 10/$400M+ contract no big deal if the player is not producing.  

Worth adding that the Red Sox had over $30 million in truly dead money this year including Sandoval and Rusney Castillo, with another $22 million locked up in Hanley Ramirez? Their payroll was $230 this year so they paid some luxury tax...but that's $50 million for basically 0 return whatsoever without it crippling them. Yeah it's the Red Sox and the White Sox probably won't get to $230 million, but how did the Red Sox do that? They developed enough talent to put in some really cheap guys and traded a couple other talented guys for Sale. 

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

Normally I'd completely agree with this but the front office has pretty much set themselves up for that at this point.  Will only have themselves to blame.

Here's my variation of this argument (to which I agree with you), I'm worried that hitting on the 2018 class was a big part of their plan. If they strike out, I'm worried that they haven't made up for it by finding enough talent in latam or the draft (and to this point I'm comparing them to the padres during the same time).

So if a big part of this was using freed up money to buy elite, younger talent, then it will suck if they fail, because it means relying on our farm to create another elite bat.

[35thstreetswarm]

1 minute ago, Rowand44 said:

Normally I'd completely agree with this but the front office has pretty much set themselves up for that at this point.  Will only have themselves to blame.

...and unlike past free agent misses, this will be a clear case of “won’t” rather than “can’t”.  They’ve made a big show of how they stripped the payroll down to nothing for the express purpose of signing free agents.  There is no question they have the financial resources to blow other teams out of the water if they want to.  If they are outbid, it will be by a team with less “room” for the player than the Sox have, and thus an admission that even when they are in a perfect position to pay up for a player they’ve announced they desperately want, they aren’t willing to make it happen.  They will be opting out of the “big boys” club.

[Southwest Sider]

7 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Kind of a silly topic but, we need something to keep us from going crazy:

How much money would you pay to be able to live stream a video feed of the Sox meeting with Harper in his LV suite?

That'd be some premium entertainment right there. PPV prices I'd probably jump at. 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Here is my case:

Having a bad contract is only bad if you need to turn your assets into younger, valuable assets.

If you just need to turn it into freeing up cash, you can move it. You may not move all of it, but you could find a team that's like "yes I could try to get the rest of Bryce Harper as my DH if we make the money work".

If the sox suck and are saying "shoot we need to rebuild, we need to get what we can for Bryce Harper", then they are screwed, but that is the case anyway.

To be clear, I am not really advocating for not signing Harper.  Just saying I'd prefer a front loaded deal with an opt out as opposed to a straight 10 year $400M deal.  Signing any elite FA is a risk, and its a risk that Sox need to take if they're serious about being good.  

[SonofaRoache]

39 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

But KW saying what is needed is available now, which he concedes is a year early, but you have to pounce when you can. That infers that next year, what is needed will not be readily available. So he has basically put himself on the spot. 

Also, the good players we want will have to be traded for next year. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

To be clear, I am not really advocating for not signing Harper.  Just saying I'd prefer a front loaded deal with an opt out as opposed to a straight 10 year $400M deal.  Signing any elite FA is a risk, and its a risk that Sox need to take if they're serious about being good.  

Oh, thanks, I get this argument. I'm fine with backloaded deals, but as you said i'd be happy to frontload it the first three years, and then also defer $5 mill over 10 years at end of deal for some round number that Boras wants.

[Chisoxfn]

I just want to point out, in terms of on the field production, I find it highly unlikely Harper lives up to the deal. But hopefully he can create lots of revenue, excitement and TV deals that increases the Sox ability to spend money and regularly field highly competitive teams (and obviously Harper would be a critical piece in terms of on the field performance).  

[YonderLaroche]

Harper's best years are ahead of him , he just needs protection.  You can't have crap hitting 1,2,3,4,5,6

[peavy44]

chrisopter shepard saying kluber to braves

[Southwest Sider]

I have a quick argument as to why the Sox should probably bid against themselves if they truly want Harper.

The Dodgers are lurking, they are attempting to shed their excess OFs. One can only imagine that if the Dodgers offer a similar contract to the Sox, he will go to the Dodgers. But first, they have some work to do. 

Maybe the Sox should just ask Boras/Harper... "what contract do you want?", then try to put it together to give them the highest possible chance that he signs now instead of in January. There's not much beating around the bush you can do if a team basically meets your demands. Sadly, I don't even think Boras would be happy with a 400m contract... he'd try to find someone to bid 410. 

The longer it drags on, the more opportunities other teams will find to make a Harper signing work. On the flip side, the Dodgers could also sign Harper now and worry about their other OF later, though it does hurt their position in trade negotiations.

[Sockin]

Just now, peavy44 said:

chrisopter shepard saying kluber to braves

That guy doesn't know anything. He's a troll account.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, peavy44 said:

chrisopter shepard saying kluber to braves

He said Harper to the White Sox yesterday until there was a snag. Now they have to wait for the new marketing firm to arrive. This guy is solid. 

[peavy44]

6 minutes ago, South Sider said:

I have a quick argument as to why the Sox should probably bid against themselves if they truly want Harper.

The Dodgers are lurking, they are attempting to shed their excess OFs. One can only imagine that if the Dodgers offer a similar contract to the Sox, he will go to the Dodgers. But first, they have some work to do. 

Maybe the Sox should just ask Boras/Harper... "what contract do you want?", then try to put it together to give them the highest possible chance that he signs now instead of in January. There's not much beating around the bush you can do if a team basically meets your demands. Sadly, I don't even think Boras would be happy with a 400m contract... he'd try to find someone to bid 410. 

The longer it drags on, the more opportunities other teams will find to make a Harper signing work. On the flip side, the Dodgers could also sign Harper now and worry about their other OF later, though it does hurt their position in trade negotiations.

Buster Olney just said this on twitter

Edited December 11, 2018 by peavy44

[Bigsoxhurt35]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

He said Harper to the White Sox yesterday until there was a snag. Now they have to wait for the new marketing firm to arrive. This guy is solid. 

Lol

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I just want to point out, in terms of on the field production, I find it highly unlikely Harper lives up to the deal. But hopefully he can create lots of revenue, excitement and TV deals that increases the Sox ability to spend money and regularly field highly competitive teams (and obviously Harper would be a critical piece in terms of on the field performance).  

I don't know what the exact deal with him has been since he put up his MVP season, there's some injuries in there, but based on the Free Agent market, if he's a 4 fWAR player each of the next 5 years and then starts declining after age 31, then he'll mathematically be worth his contract. He's averaged 3.7 the last 3 seasons - and that's not counting the MVP caliber season.

I think there's a decent chance he's worth his contract - the Free Agent market is just that pricey. One more >>5 WAR season though, which we know he can do - and he becomes a bargain.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I just want to point out, in terms of on the field production, I find it highly unlikely Harper lives up to the deal. But hopefully he can create lots of revenue, excitement and TV deals that increases the Sox ability to spend money and regularly field highly competitive teams (and obviously Harper would be a critical piece in terms of on the field performance).  

As you said, it doesn't really bother me. It's the opportunity to buy a young, very productive bat, which comes with a price. It is possible by underpaying, HOPEFULLY, young cost controlled, productive players across much of the rest of the team.

It's the total budget that should matter, and having a proven bat allows us to use surplus to get additional cost controlled talent at points we need it, or whatever we need.

[peavy44]

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'll believe that when I see it.  

It was only 1980 that the first player got a million dollar annual salary.  Now we are over 30 X's that.

[peavy44]

The dodgers want harper its better for white sox strike now before its to late.

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, South Sider said:

I have a quick argument as to why the Sox should probably bid against themselves if they truly want Harper.

The Dodgers are lurking, they are attempting to shed their excess OFs. One can only imagine that if the Dodgers offer a similar contract to the Sox, he will go to the Dodgers. But first, they have some work to do. 

Maybe the Sox should just ask Boras/Harper... "what contract do you want?", then try to put it together to give them the highest possible chance that he signs now instead of in January. There's not much beating around the bush you can do if a team basically meets your demands. Sadly, I don't even think Boras would be happy with a 400m contract... he'd try to find someone to bid 410. 

The longer it drags on, the more opportunities other teams will find to make a Harper signing work. On the flip side, the Dodgers could also sign Harper now and worry about their other OF later, though it does hurt their position in trade negotiations.

I have my doubts teams will give an offer that is 10/400, as that is a crippling amount to pay one player long term

[bmags]

For the record, though people will focus on "Dodgers shedding payroll to sign harper!", this is an example of how they can continue to shed payroll of pretty low end veterans.

Still, I will mostly be surprised if the kluber to lad, outfielders to cle swap doesn't happen.