What should the max offer be for...

[ChiSox59]

10 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Why do people want to give the better player less money? I say throw 10/$375 at both and see which one bites first. Structure:

50-45-45-/-45-45-45-/-40-/-25-20-15

/ = opt out

I would be astonished if the Sox gave Harper an opt out before the conclusion of year 5 (which still allows him to hit FA again at age 31).  Giving him an opt out after year 3 would be insane.  Why even bother?  He'll be a FA a season after this team is supposed to hit its grove. 

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

10/340 would be my guess, with an opt out after 4 seasons at Harper's age 30

I like the 4 year opt out...some opt out might be a good enticement considering he wants to win, and it's hard to get absolute comfort based on the track record of the 2 Ricks leading the show.  4 years is  a reasonable balance of the player not being stuck on a loser (which should be evident or not in 2 years) and club protection (which would like want a longer period)

[Harry Chappas]

You don't front load the contract and then give him the opt out.

 

45/45/45/45 opt out is dumb if you then go 30/30/30/30/15/15--- he has to opt out with that deal $33M AAV

You offer ten year $33 per with four year opt out....at 31 can he beat 7/$198 probably not

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

You don't front load the contract and then give him the opt out.

 

45/45/45/45 opt out is dumb if you then go 30/30/30/30/15/15--- he has to opt out with that deal $33M AAV

You offer ten year $33 per with four year opt out....at 31 can he beat 7/$198 probably not

You aren't winning the bidding at $33 AAV per in the early years.  He is going to get a heavily front loaded contract with an opt out after 4-6 years.  The backend of whatever contract he signs will only matter if he ends up regressing significantly.  He is going to want to set himself up to hit FA again in his early 30s, if he wants to at that point.  

[Dick Allen]

One thing to keep in mind is if Harper gets 8 years or more, there's a pretty good chance JR won't be the Chairman during his last several seasons. 

[Lillian]

10 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Why do people want to give the better player less money? I say throw 10/$375 at both and see which one bites first. Structure:

50-45-45-/-45-45-45-/-40-/-25-20-15

/ = opt out

What scares me about that is the possibility that Machado grabs it, and I prefer Harper, especially for that kind of money. Machado, without Harper, becomes the face of the franchise and that would be tough for this fan to swallow. Yuck. Of course, there is always a chance that Eloy, or even Robert or Moncada become the face of the franchise. Robert and Moncada because they are both 5 tool talents and Eloy because he is, well simply "the Bess".

Edited December 13, 2018 by Lillian

[Lillian]

The issue of front loading versus back loading is interesting. The player would almost always want the front loaded deal, but the back loaded deal would not always be preferable to ownership. I like the front loaded deal for the team, as well as the player. It provides protection against the potential for significantly reduced production, due to age and, or injury. It makes the contract more movable, if the player does not have a no trade clause. It also still provides enough incentive for him to stay motivated and dedicated.

Consider this hypothetical: 10 years: $375 Million. First 5 years at $50 Million per, $250 Million total. Last 5 years at $25 Million per, for $125 Million.

He may be thinking that he can opt out, in order to seek a better deal for the last few years of his career, which for the Sox, may not be much of a disadvantage. Few players are really that good, in their late 30's. If he can find another team to offer him more money for years age 32 through 36, more power to him. Such a contractual structure could be especially suitable for the Sox, given the oft mentioned lack of payroll obligations, currently on their books, and the anticipated cost of retaining our young, emerging stars, when they reach arbitration and free agency.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, Lillian said:

The issue of front loading versus back loading is interesting. The player would almost always want the front loaded deal, but the back loaded deal would not always be preferable to ownership. I like the front loaded deal for the team, as well as the player. It provides protection against the potential for significantly reduced production, due to age and, or injury. It makes the contract more movable, if the player does not have a no trade clause. It also still provides enough incentive for him to stay motivated and dedicated.

Consider this hypothetical: 10 years: $375 Million. First 5 years at $50 Million per, $250 Million total. Last 5 years at $35 Million per, for $175 Million

He may be thinking that he can opt out, in order to seek a better deal for the last few years of his career, which for the Sox, may not be much of a disadvantage. Few players are really that good, in their late 30's. If he can find another team to offer him more money for years age 32 through 36, more power to him. 

I’ve got bad news for you, but your proposed contract is worth $425M and not $375M.

[Dam8610]

5 hours ago, Lillian said:

What scares me about that is the possibility that Machado grabs it, and I prefer Harper, especially for that kind of money. Machado, without Harper, becomes the face of the franchise and that would be tough for this fan to swallow. Yuck. Of course, there is always a chance that Eloy, or even Robert or Moncada become the face of the franchise. Robert and Moncada because they are both 5 tool talents and Eloy because he is, well simply "the Bess".

To me, Harper is hopefully duplicity with Eloy, and I'd much prefer to give that money to the more consistent producer and better overall player (yes I said it and will continue to) in Machado. I don't buy into this whole Harper "star power" nonsense, so it comes down to buying a 6-7 WAR bat with -1.5 to -2.5 WAR defense attached to it or a 4-5 WAR bat with 1-2 WAR defense attached to it, and to me, option 2 (Machado) looks much less risky. So I hope Machado grabs it and leaves the Phillies to overpay Harper $400 million.

And for anyone concerned about the year 3 opt out, I don't think any player would opt out of a 3/$135 deal.

[Lillian]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve got bad news for you, but your proposed contract is worth $425M and not $375M.

Yes, you are correct. Sorry. Thanks for catching my mistake. 

[bubba phillips]

I like the idea of an opt out after 3 years under the following circumstances:  the competing offers from other teams are very comparable and both players want to play for a team that is (or soon will be) a World Series contender.

A 3 year opt out opportunity might be the differentiating factor that swings them to our side.  If our rebuild has stalled after 3 years, chances are they will bail out.  If, on the other hand, we are where we want to be, they could stay and be part of a championship team. 

[Lightning]

Less than Trout. I am sorry but .a 249 hitter last year shouldn’t get a $350-400+ million contract. Opt out. Sox should get the opt out if his average falls any further.

[bschmaranz]

2 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Less than Trout. I am sorry but .a 249 hitter last year shouldn’t get a $350-400+ million contract. Opt out. Sox should get the opt out if his average falls any further.

Batting average?  You know the guy had nearly a .400 obp right?  

[Sleepy Harold]

4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Less than Trout. I am sorry but .a 249 hitter last year shouldn’t get a $350-400+ million contract. Opt out. Sox should get the opt out if his average falls any further.

Only citing bathing average I see...as if all other stats he compiled last year are irrelevant.  Lol. 

[Lightning]

Yes , I know about his OBP and other stats. He’s a very good player.

Concerning is it was a contract year with a better hitting team than the Sox and was his worst year. 

Would he be good to see in a Sox unifrom ,of course. However, for that much money he should be in the top 10 in at least one , Batting average , Hr’s or RBIs. 

 

 

 

[SCCWS]

10 hours ago, Lightning said:

Yes , I know about his OBP and other stats. He’s a very good player.

Concerning is it was a contract year with a better hitting team than the Sox and was his worst year. 

Would he be good to see in a Sox unifrom ,of course. However, for that much money he should be in the top 10 in at least one , Batting average , Hr’s or RBIs. 

 

That is fair. He had a monster 2015,  pretty good 16, very good 17, pretty good 18. He probably isn't the 15 . So hopefully he is the 17 and not 16 and 18.  If you are a WAR person, he is tough to gauge.  But he is 25 coming hopefully into his prime. 

 

 

[ChiSox1917]

$500 million/10 years.  

[wrathofhahn]

On 12/12/2018 at 4:30 PM, hogan873 said:

Harper - 10 years/$385M, opt outs after years 4, 5, and 6

Machado - 10 years/$350M, similar opt outs

I would offer more to Harper only because I believe he would be more valuable to the franchise.

I never thought about an ownership clause.  That is an interesting idea.

For Harper it should be around 8 years 225 which is 28 million AAV

For Machado it should be 9 years 270 million which is 30 million AAV

That won't be what they will get but that is what I would offer them.

[ChiSox59]

4 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

For Harper it should be around 8 years 225 which is 28 million AAV

For Machado it should be 9 years 270 million which is 30 million AAV

That won't be what they will get but that is what I would offer them.

And you’d at best be in like 5th place with these offers. Not even worth extending the offer at those dollar amounts. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

For Harper it should be around 8 years 225 which is 28 million AAV

For Machado it should be 9 years 270 million which is 30 million AAV

That won't be what they will get but that is what I would offer them.

I’m convinced you’re just playing board contrarian at this point.

[ron883]

4 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

For Harper it should be around 8 years 225 which is 28 million AAV

For Machado it should be 9 years 270 million which is 30 million AAV

That won't be what they will get but that is what I would offer them.

And you would be fired shortly afterwards for being a lousy GM

[wrathofhahn]

Who are we even bidding against? Here is the Nats offer via Bob Nightengale

The Washington #Nats offer to Bryce Harper at end of season was worth $284 million over 10 years when factoring in the deferred money.. #Whitesox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has had two phone conversations with agent Scott Boras but no offers yet submitted. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/12/12/bryce-harper-scott-boras-las-vegas-baseball-winter-meetings/2294674002/ …

So if their offer was worth 10/284 and that has sort of been the highest offer reported why the heck would you go well above that? For all the grief I got the leaked AAV matched mine. Which i wasn't aware of until now.

10 years for me is a problem because I think he'll ultimately be a DH when he gets to his early to mid thirties but at least the AAV isn't crazy like the 10/400 offers that have been posted here.

 

Edited December 15, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Buehrle>Wood]

5 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

So if there offer was worth 10/284 and that has sort of been the highest offer reported why the heck would you go well above that?

 

Because he turned that down so he doesnt want 10/284. This isnt hard.

[wrathofhahn]

1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Because he turned that down so he doesnt want 10/284. This isnt hard.

Of course he doesn't I'm sure he wants 10/400 but that doesn't mean he will get it. You guys don't understand how much leverage we actually have there are very few teams capable of offering these type of deals period. Then you go down the list to who is willing and the number gets even smaller.

You look at last year JD Martinez and Boras held out all offseason angry pouting demanding more money from the redsox. What happened? Boras gave in. Not because they liked the offer anymore then they did months ago but because noone else came forward. Now the Phillies have sniffed around but other then them who else has reported to have interest. Hell that Nats offer isn't even likely on the table anymore after signing Corbin. So if we really are going in on these guys which I wouldn't lets at least be smart. Lets not be one of those ownership groups that asks Boras how much it would cost and then say okay.

Let the market decide and use comparable players to come up with a figure that makes sense.

Edited December 15, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[ChiSox59]

58 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Of course he doesn't I'm sure he wants 10/400 but that doesn't mean he will get it. You guys don't understand how much leverage we actually have there are very few teams capable of offering these type of deals period. Then you go down the list to who is willing and the number gets even smaller.

You look at last year JD Martinez and Boras held out all offseason angry pouting demanding more money from the redsox. What happened? Boras gave in. Not because they liked the offer anymore then they did months ago but because noone else came forward. Now the Phillies have sniffed around but other then them who else has reported to have interest. Hell that Nats offer isn't even likely on the table anymore after signing Corbin. So if we really are going in on these guys which I wouldn't lets at least be smart. Lets not be one of those ownership groups that asks Boras how much it would cost and then say okay.

Let the market decide and use comparable players to come up with a figure that makes sense.

There would be 15 teams that would take Harper at your suggested prices. Harper would have told Boras weeks ago to not relay contract negoations from the White Sox until and if they get serious.