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Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil


Kyyle23

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8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Actually if you go look at where he pitched in the minors he was never a high 90s guy. Sure, he showed that in the futures game, but that was a short outing and he was probably amped. Giolito has been mid 90s with plus breaking balls as a pro. He hasnt thrown upper 90s since HS/ pre TJS. 

Do you have something to support that because I don’t think that’s true?  This article suggests his stuff returned to form in Low A with the Nationals:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're totally ok with leaving it up to the catcher's framing skills and the umpire's precise eye whether or not you strike out, you set the record for strikeouts in a season.

Yeah, expecting the umpires to do their jobs well shouldn't be part of the equation.  But blaming the hitter for knowing the K-zone is ridiculous.  I'm not looking at a chart or anything, but I seem to remember that many of those calls weren't even very close.  They were just all around terrible calls.

 

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7 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

If velocity is the biggest cause of TJ, and you have a pitcher that throws as hard as any other starter in baseball, if you don't expect TJ to happen at some point, it is blind hoping.

Sale is a different story.  Experts (the fake kind) thought he was a high risk because of his delivery.  Which has a minimal correlation in most cases.  Sale, notably, has high velocity, but doesn't live by throwing 97-99 all the time.  

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2010/08/elbow-injuries-and-what-causes-tommy-john-surgery/

It’s has more to do with mechanics than velocity...

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6 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah, expecting the umpires to do their jobs well shouldn't be part of the equation.  But blaming the hitter for knowing the K-zone is ridiculous.  I'm not looking at a chart or anything, but I seem to remember that many of those calls weren't even very close.  They were just all around terrible calls.

 

There's always some terrible calls, but the terrible calls happen to everyone. No one has ever said that there was an unusual concentration of bad calls for Moncada. An average player strikes out 10 or 20 times a year on bad calls, but that doesn't push Moncada up to 50 of those. If you played out this season 100 times, Moncada would lead the league in that stat 100 times. It was not bad luck.

Because pitchers knew Moncada wouldn't swing at anything near the corners, if they got ahead of him they worked the corners. If they had to waste 2 or 3 pitches to try to get a call, they could do that because they knew Moncada wasn't a threat. He wouldn't swing, he wouldn't defend himself, he had no ability to foul off or spoil a pitcher's pitch, and his approach pushed pitchers to try to ace him with pitches like that. A normal hitter will at least spoil some pitches with 2 strikes knowing that they can't just leave it up to the umpire when a pitch is close, but Moncada's approach left that as one of his main weaknesses. 

Unless we're switching to robot umpires at some point soon, Moncada is the one who will have to deal with that weakness. Complaining about the umps shows a lack of understanding of why it's his weakness.

 

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42 minutes ago, beckham15 said:

The one delivery that has shown to have a very degree of TJ is the " inverted W" (I still don't understand why it just isn't an "M"), I believe that still holds true, and is much of what this article discusses.  That article, though is from 2010.

Here is an article that is 5 years more recent.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/velocity-and-the-likelihood-of-tommy-john-surgery/

Quote

based on this data, that throwing 95+ increases one’s likelihood of getting the surgery.

Quote

PITCHfx

Velo Sample Size TMJ Count TMJ %
96+ 99 36 36.36%
95+ 196 61 31.12%
92 to 95 584 158 27.05%
89 to 92 530 106 20%
86 to 89 151 34 22.51%
86- 23 4 17.39%

 

 

Edited by turnin' two
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14 minutes ago, ptatc said:

When the pitchers throw near max effort for an extended period if time they lose their mechanics.  The two are directly related.

The same can be said for one who takes speed off of their fastball, higher end velocity is still not the direct issue in my opinion, it comes down to the mechanics.

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59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's always some terrible calls, but the terrible calls happen to everyone. No one has ever said that there was an unusual concentration of bad calls for Moncada. An average player strikes out 10 or 20 times a year on bad calls, but that doesn't push Moncada up to 50 of those. If you played out this season 100 times, Moncada would lead the league in that stat 100 times. It was not bad luck.

Because pitchers knew Moncada wouldn't swing at anything near the corners, if they got ahead of him they worked the corners. If they had to waste 2 or 3 pitches to try to get a call, they could do that because they knew Moncada wasn't a threat. He wouldn't swing, he wouldn't defend himself, he had no ability to foul off or spoil a pitcher's pitch, and his approach pushed pitchers to try to ace him with pitches like that. A normal hitter will at least spoil some pitches with 2 strikes knowing that they can't just leave it up to the umpire when a pitch is close, but Moncada's approach left that as one of his main weaknesses. 

Unless we're switching to robot umpires at some point soon, Moncada is the one who will have to deal with that weakness. Complaining about the umps shows a lack of understanding of why it's his weakness.

 

Moncada was the 18th best hitter in baseball last year at not swinging at balls out of the strike zone.  Those in front of him were: Votto, McCutch, Nimmo, Betts, Bregman, C Hernandez, Hicks, Carpenter, Mauer, Gardner, Trout, Ramirez,Dozier, Grandal, Hoskins, Markakis and Pham.  That is pretty good company.  For the most part, those guys are the best hitters in baseball.  

He was 21st in swing % overall.  Those are good traits.  Traits that should lead to success.  

The only legit knock you could make against his plate discipline is that he takes too many strikes.  He took about 34% of the strikes thrown to him this past season, but even there he swung more than Goldschmidt, Haniger, Bregman, Carpenter, Trout etc...

I'd much rather have a guy like Moncada as a foundation for a better player than a guy that just hacks away at everything.  Avi Garcia, for example swung at 44% of the pitches out of the strike zone.  Not only are you less likely to hit pitches out of the zone, but unless you are Vlad Guerrero, less likely to hit them hard.  Maybe he should be more aggressive protecting the plate with 2 strikes, but his overall approach is better than any rookies the Sox have had since probably Magglio.  

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3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

True, but he was the number 1 rated prospect in baseball, so my expectations for him are high, and I expect a big year from him next year. If he doesn't perform next year to that level, we are in trouble. 

Yet people actually want to invest $400 Million into a player coming off a 1.3 WAR season? 

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6 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Kind of makes you think looking at just one season is a fool's errand eh?

Kind of makes me think wasting that much money on him is incredibly stupid.

In fairness, it's skewed by dWAR, which I find to be a completely useless stat. Harper is a hack of a fielder, my eyeballs will tell me that over 9 innings, but when you're investing that much money, I'm gonna need the total package. 

Edited by TaylorStSox
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