Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

[hogan873]

It would be funny if, after all of the past rumors about Machado, there's a sudden announcement that the Sox are in final negotiations with Harper.

[Kiebs13]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Machado isn't a guarantee? He's more of a guarantee to produce consistent high level of play than Harper just by being on the field more often. If we can't trust that our overflow of OF prospects are going to produce at least 2 quality bats and above average OF defense then rebuilding is ridiculous . The Sox are in a position where they have to believe high quality prospects will produce high quality results.

I never said Machado wasn't a guarentee and I would LOVE to have him. All I am saying is that if you can get harper you can trade from prospect depth in the outfield to get another guarantee at 3b. You could not do the same if you get machado as you would need that OF prospect depth.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Kiebs13
spelling

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, shipps said:

I know you aren't a fan of defensive metrics but have you at least watched the two players play defense? Highlights of them playing defense? 

In think we can certainly find Machados really valuable on this team.  

Harper’s 2018 Inside Edge stats account for all 285 putouts he made in the outfield. He flubbed two of 275 plays considered routine, certainly plays he’d like to have back but nothing to indicate egregious defensive shortcomings. He converted none of six opportunities to make “remote” plays, but Harper has never made a play considered remote by Inside Edge in his entire career — those are reserved for top-end sprinters like Billy Hamilton or guys with the freakishly good instincts and reaction time of Mookie Betts. If Harper has never made plays like that in the past, he’s unlikely to start doing so with any regularity now, and they’re not enough to make or break him as a defender. Mike Trout has above-average range for a center fielder but has converted only two of 46 remote opportunities since 2014.

Taking out the impossible, the remote and the routine plays leaves only 25 batted balls that tested Harper’s defensive limits in 2018. He made 12 of them, going 1-for-6 on unlikely plays, 1-for-4 on even plays, and 10-for-15 on likely (but not routine) plays. If he could’ve caught all of four more fly balls over the course of the entire season, the figures tracking his range would look a lot different.

Again: He did not do that, so his defensive stats look bad. But unless your eyeballs are biased by too much time looking at in-season defensive metrics, Harper just does not look the part of an albatross defender. By sprint speed — which measures players on the basepaths, not in the outfield — Harper still moves just as well as he did from 2015-2017, when he graded out as a slightly above average defensive right fielder.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/11/bryce-harper-defense-uzr-drs-mlb-free-agency-2018

[Kyyle23]

9 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

It would be funny if, after all of the past rumors about Machado, there's a sudden announcement that the Sox are in final negotiations with Harper.

I'm excited either way if that comes out about Machado or Harper 

[mqr]

41 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree that Machado fits team needs better, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I'm convinced Harper is a far superior player. I don't trust defensive metrics all that much as they swing wildly from season to season. If Machado has a negative year or two on the defensive side, he goes from a 5 win plyer to a 3, and is that worth 30M per season? Harper just put up a 5 win season while being negative defensively. I really don't think that it is close at all. 

  

It was either a 3 win season or a 1 win season depending on who you ask

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Disagree. I think Harper has the safer floor and the higher ceiling. I really don't think that it is close. If you're spending the money, you spend it on Bryce, unless he's not interested in playing here. 

fWAR by season from 2015 to 2018.

Machado: 6.6, 6.3, 2.6, 6.2 (21.7 / 5.4 avg)

Harper: 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5 (20.6 / 5.2 avg)

Overall the total production is very similar, the difference is Machado’s outlier season is dragging his numbers down while Harper’s is boasting his up.  I think Machado is the safer player over the next five years, but beyond that it’s probably Harper because his skill set will likely age better but at that point each would have likely opted out already.

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

fWAR by season from 2015 to 2018.

Machado: 6.6, 6.3, 2.6, 6.2 (21.7 / 5.4 avg)

Harper: 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5 (20.6 / 5.2 avg)

Overall the total production is very similar, the difference is Machado’s outlier season is dragging his numbers down while Harper’s is boasting his up.  I think Machado is the safer player over the next five years, but beyond that it’s probably Harper because his skill set will likely age better but at that point each would have likely opted out already.

If you look deeper, Harper has been incredibly unlucky during his career for entire seasons when it comes to batted ball data. 

The only year he truly had a bad year was in 2014. In 2016 and 2018 he had a BABIP below .300(in 2016 it was well below .300) Which shows that his "bad" years were more on the unlucky side than anything he did or didn't do. Even during those unlucky years it isn't close offensively. 

You can argue defense all you want. and I won't argue Manny being an excellent defender provides value. I just think that the difference in their offense far exceeds the difference in their defense. Harper is better, and it isn't close. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think it is close tbh. I clarified. Harper's 3 worst seasons are 

.768, .814, .817

Machado's are

.745, .755, .782

Harper's 3 best seasons:

1.109

1.008

.889

Machado's 3 best

.905

.876

.867

Not even close in terms of ceiling and floor. 

Am I reading this right that 2 of the seasons where you're quoting Machado's OPS are his age 20 and 21 seasons?

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

fWAR by season from 2015 to 2018.

Machado: 6.6, 6.3, 2.6, 6.2 (21.7 / 5.4 avg)

Harper: 9.3, 3.0, 4.8, 3.5 (20.6 / 5.2 avg)

Overall the total production is very similar, the difference is Machado’s outlier season is dragging his numbers down while Harper’s is boasting his up.  I think Machado is the safer player over the next five years, but beyond that it’s probably Harper because his skill set will likely age better but at that point each would have likely opted out already.

The thing is, if I'm taking an outlier season I'm taking the high one.

There has been a lot of discussion here on which of the two, I'm firmly in the camp to not overthink this: they are both great. I'm more with Parkman though, I'll take Harper if it's truly head to head. 

His obp makes even his low offensive output seasons easier to handle, while his great offensive seasons are hard to replicate with other talent. If machado puts up a few sub .800 ops seasons, I for one won't really care that he's providing great D. For a big buy like this I'm taking the better bat.

But despite that, Machado hits the crap out of the ball. He could easily find his high offensive season at .950 ops and end up with a 9 WAR season of his own. 

They are both great.

[southsider2k5]

33 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

It would be funny if, after all of the past rumors about Machado, there's a sudden announcement that the Sox are in final negotiations with Harper.

I wouldn't hate that plot twist.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I wouldn't hate that plot twist.

I mean, we would be on the verge of sox having two consistent .900 ops bats in their lineup. Find some good corner bats out of the rest of the talent and you have yourself an offense.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Am I reading this right that 2 of the seasons where you're quoting Machado's OPS are his age 20 and 21 seasons?

Yes. Harper's "bad" season was his age 21 season as well. so TIFWIW. They're both 26, and Harper is actually younger by a half year. Harper's age 20 season was better than his age 21 season. If everyone wants to only look at 2015-18 that is fine. We'll just look at Offense at that point

 

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you look deeper, Harper has been incredibly unlucky during his career for entire seasons when it comes to batted ball data. 

The only year he truly had a bad year was in 2014. In 2016 and 2018 he had a BABIP below .300(in 2016 it was well below .300) Which shows that his "bad" years were more on the unlucky side than anything he did or didn't do. Even during those unlucky years it isn't close offensively. 

You can argue defense all you want. and I won't argue Manny being an excellent defender provides value. I just think that the difference in their offense far exceeds the difference in their defense. Harper is better, and it isn't close. 

If it is his entire career, it probably isn't luck, but some deeper reasoning, much like Buehrle out preforming his expected numbers pretty much every year of his career due to his defense.

[Quin]

Sales pitch:

If you're Harper/Machado would you want

- Black pinstripes

- Brown pinstripes 

- Red pinstripes

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

The thing is, if I'm taking an outlier season I'm taking the high one.

There has been a lot of discussion here on which of the two, I'm firmly in the camp to not overthink this: they are both great. I'm more with Parkman though, I'll take Harper if it's truly head to head. 

His obp makes even his low offensive output seasons easier to handle, while his great offensive seasons are hard to replicate with other talent. If machado puts up a few sub .800 ops seasons, I for one won't really care that he's providing great D. For a big buy like this I'm taking the better bat.

But despite that, Machado hits the crap out of the ball. He could easily find his high offensive season at .950 ops and end up with a 9 WAR season of his own. 

They are both great.

Agreed bmags. 

They're both great, and I wouldn't complain either way, but Harper is the superior player. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it is his entire career, it probably isn't luck, but some deeper reasoning, much like Buehrle out preforming his expected numbers pretty much every year of his career due to his defense.

No it isn't his entire career, it is two seasons in particular, 2016 and 2018. Those years are dragging his numbers down. Since 2015, when he isn't unlucky his OPS is greater than 1.000

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it is his entire career, it probably isn't luck, but some deeper reasoning, much like Buehrle out preforming his expected numbers pretty much every year of his career due to his defense.

He hits so many ground balls into the shift that Boras wanted the shift banned. 

[shipps]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Agreed bmags. 

They're both great, and I wouldn't complain either way, but Harper is the superior player. 

For the love of God. 

[bmags]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Agreed bmags. 

They're both great, and I wouldn't complain either way, but Harper is the superior player. 

Well, I disagree with you that "it's not close". It is close, but it's clear mlb teams value paying for the bat more (harper is almost certainly going to get more than machado and I don't think you can chalk that up to marketing) and harpers bat has shown it can touch the heights of being elite that is so valuable in a team makeup.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

He hits so many ground balls into the shift that Boras wanted the shift banned. 

2016 it definitely seemed like he was trending down and something was wrong. I don't think that was an unlucky year. But then 2017 happened and so much of his value last year was dragged down by defensive value that does seem like an outlier. His offensive season was fine.

Now, if he's scared to play defense because he's afraid of getting injured, if he goes back to going all out does it just introduce a bunch of injuries? That is the "harper to 1b" risk I worry about more than poor defense.

[caulfield12]

You can’t say Harper is unlucky if he keeps pulling balls into the shift...unless he has an extremely fluke percentages of line drives and hard hit balls getting stopped.

That still is scouting/positioning just as much as bad luck.

[Jack Parkman]

36 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well, I disagree with you that "it's not close". It is close, but it's clear mlb teams value paying for the bat more (harper is almost certainly going to get more than machado and I don't think you can chalk that up to marketing) and harpers bat has shown it can touch the heights of being elite that is so valuable in a team makeup.

Let me clarify: It isn't close when it comes to offense. That is and always has been my point. Maybe I wasn't being clear enough. When taking defense into account, it is closer but I'd still give Harper the edge. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, bmags said:

2016 it definitely seemed like he was trending down and something was wrong. I don't think that was an unlucky year. But then 2017 happened and so much of his value last year was dragged down by defensive value that does seem like an outlier. His offensive season was fine.

Now, if he's scared to play defense because he's afraid of getting injured, if he goes back to going all out does it just introduce a bunch of injuries? That is the "harper to 1b" risk I worry about more than poor defense.

He had a .264 BABIP in 2016 so the metrics would disagree with you there. 

[Jake]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it is his entire career, it probably isn't luck, but some deeper reasoning, much like Buehrle out preforming his expected numbers pretty much every year of his career due to his defense.

And it's worth remembering that home runs don't contribute to BABIP.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Let me clarify: It isn't close when it comes to offense. That is and always has been my point. Maybe I wasn't being clear enough. 

Yeah, and this is largely OBP driven. Machado hits the crap out of the ball as much as Harper, but Harper's elite plate discipline buoys his numbers tremendously.