Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil

[shipps]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Let me clarify: It isn't close when it comes to offense. That is and always has been my point. Maybe I wasn't being clear enough. 

Thanks for clearing that up...

So what you meant to say was Harper, in your opinion, is the far more superior offensive player.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah, and this is largely OBP driven. Machado hits the crap out of the ball as much as Harper, but Harper's elite plate discipline buoys his numbers tremendously.

Meaning he makes fewer outs. The goal of offense is to not make outs

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, shipps said:

Thanks for clearing that up...

So what you meant to say was Harper, in your opinion, is the far more superior offensive player.

Yes. It all depends on butts in seats, etc. I don't think the Sox really give a shit about defense all that much. It would make sense if they actually did prefer Harper. I won't argue that Machado might fit team needs better. What people fail to realize though is that the Sox are so deep in OF and even if they did have 2 spots taken by Eloy and Harper, it just frees them to make moves with those players. At that point, Robert, Basabe, Gonzalez, Walker, and maybe Rutherford if he can play CF are the only must keeps. Any corner OF is a trade chip. Of those players Gonzalez would be first on my list as trade bait. If Adolfo continues to rake, he could be good bait to fill other holes. 

I've been on the grab Harper and Moustakas train in 2019, Grab Sale or Cole in 2020, and go make trades to fill holes after identifying the core. 

Potential core players are: 

Pitchers: 

Kopech

Cease

Lopez/Giolito(probably Lopez) 

Sale/Cole(in a perfect world) 

Position players:

Eloy

Probably Robert

Moncada/Madrigal(If the Sox like both I wouldn't rule out Moncada to 3B, but only if he figures it out at the plate first) 

Harper(in a perfect world) 

Anderson

I like positional flexiblity, and the Sox would have a lot of guys who could play multiple positions. 

Any prospect capital left could be used for trades on guys with multiple years of team control to fill holes. 

I get the argument for Machado, as Corner IF is pretty barren in terms of talent league wide.

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[SonofaRoache]

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Meaning he makes fewer outs. The goal of offense is to not make outs

No, the goal is to score runs. This is a sport where an out can be a good thing, and some do it on purpose to get in better position to score. 

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

No, the goal is to score runs. This is a sport where an out can be a good thing, and some do it on purpose to get in better position to score. 

Well yeah but if you don't make outs run scoring will happen. Outs are currency in baseball, as they determine the length of an inning or game. 3 outs in 8 batters>> 3 in 5. Bigger chance for a crooked number. 

[OmarComing25]

40 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No it isn't his entire career, it is two seasons in particular, 2016 and 2018. Those years are dragging his numbers down. Since 2015, when he isn't unlucky his OPS is greater than 1.000

2018: xwOBA of .387 and wOBA of .376

2017: xwOBA of .395 and wOBA of .416

2016: xwOBA of .353 and wOBA of .343

2015: xwOBA of .415 and wOBA of .461

 

His "unlucky" seasons weren't actually that unlucky. His 2017 and 2015 seasons were relatively much more lucky.

Edited February 1, 2019 by OmarComing25

[SonofaRoache]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Well yeah but if you don't make outs run scoring will happen. Outs are currency in baseball, as they determine the length of an inning or game. 3 outs in 8 batters>> 3 in 5. Bigger chance for a crooked number. 

Here is a scenario. 

Bottom of the 9th, 2nd and 3rd with only one out. Is it better to fly out to right or center, or walk? One wins you the game, the other puts your team on position to get doubled up. Also, middle of the order guys who walk aren't getting max value out of the at bat. I'd rather my big hitter put the bat on the ball and see where it goes in most cases. 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Here is a scenario. 

Bottom of the 9th, 2nd and 3rd with only one out. Is it better to fly out to right or center, or walk? One wins you the game, the other puts your team on position to get doubled up. Also, middle of the order guys who walk aren't getting max value out of the at bat. I'd rather my big hitter put the bat on the ball and see where it goes in most cases. 

That is a special case where a sac fly wins immediately. The guy could also line to 3B and get doubled off that way. So many variables. 

I'm of the opinion that an out by definition is not productive. If you make fewer outs, run scoring will take care of itself. 

Players like Tim Anderson and Alexei Ramirez aren't my cup of tea. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[SCCWS]

41 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah, and this is largely OBP driven. Machado hits the crap out of the ball as much as Harper, but Harper's elite plate discipline buoys his numbers tremendously.

One thought is the difference in leagues. We often talk about pitchers going between leagues but not so much hitters. Does Manny have an advantage being an AL player versus Harper an NL player. 

[Eminor3rd]

14 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

No, the goal is to score runs. This is a sport where an out can be a good thing, and some do it on purpose to get in better position to score. 

An out is NEVER a good thing, there are simply some situations in which you’re willing to accept an out as the cost for an increased chance of a run. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Kiebs13 said:

I never said Machado wasn't a guarentee and I would LOVE to have him. All I am saying is that if you can get harper you can trade from prospect depth in the outfield to get another guarantee at 3b. You could not do the same if you get machado as you would need that OF prospect depth.

Why can’t we sign Machado and use our prospect depth in the OF to add a proven OF?

[Kiebs13]

you can, but usually it is multiple prospects for one major leaguer right? more OF spots to fill than the one 3b spots you have to fill. 

[The Sir]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why can’t we sign Machado and use our prospect depth in the OF to add a proven OF?

I’d rather wait. I think we can get three solid MLB OF starters out of our prospect batch. Sign Machado, wait til our OF prospects pan out, and then trade the extras for whatever we need then, like an SP.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

If it is his entire career, it probably isn't luck, but some deeper reasoning, much like Buehrle out preforming his expected numbers pretty much every year of his career due to his defense.

Exactly could be he was unlucky because he was hitting the ball into the shift. More fielders in the area someone hits the ball a lot is wise and doesn't equate to the batter being unlucky.

[turnin' two]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Meaning he makes fewer outs. The goal of offense is to not make outs

No it isn't.  People have lost sight of the point of offense.  The point of offense is to score runs.  This is an incredibly easy and simple concept that sometimes gets lost in the statistical revolution.  Usually not making outs helps.  But not always.  

 

Now you may return to your regularly scheduled program of half the people think Bryce is obviously better and half thinking Manny is obviously better.  Sorry.  I had to vent.

Edited February 1, 2019 by turnin' two

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

An out is NEVER a good thing, there are simply some situations in which you’re willing to accept an out as the cost for an increased chance of a run. 

And that is why looking at just the offensive thing doesn't work, otherwise you miss that Machado is excellent at creating outs defensively, so much so that it makes up for the gap between them offensively.

[KiwiSox]

I would be shocked if Harper took an opt-out. I really get the sense he's looking for his Forever Home.

[SCCWS]

Just now, KiwiSox said:

I would be shocked if Harper took an opt-out. I really get the sense he's looking for his Forever Home.

Not sure I agree. It seems like both Manny and Harper have limited choices. So both may end up choosing the best option( maybe not offer) and try the market again in a few years. For example, if Manny really wants the east coast but isn't sold on Philly.  If Harper really wants LA or NY but the choice is Philly or SD. If either wants to play on an instant contender and Philly-White Sox and Padres are all getting but not there. 

[Kiebs13]

5 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I would be shocked if Harper took an opt-out. I really get the sense he's looking for his Forever Home.

that makes zero sense. an opt out is just an insurance for the player. even if he wants to stay there he can opt out and rengotiate a better contract. he was already offerened a contract with no opt outs from the nats for 300+mm and declined it. also, boras would never let him decline an opt out. bad prescedent 

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I would be shocked if Harper took an opt-out. I really get the sense he's looking for his Forever Home.

If there is more money to be made, he will take it.

[Roughneck]

23 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

that makes zero sense. an opt out is just an insurance for the player. even if he wants to stay there he can opt out and rengotiate a better contract. he was already offerened a contract with no opt outs from the nats for 300+mm and declined it. also, boras would never let him decline an opt out. bad prescedent 

Right. An opt-out can only help a player. It's insurance on two fronts - money and team. If 4 years down the road, Harper thinks the market will give him $45 mil a year instead of $35m, he can opt out. Also, if he signs with the Sox because they are building a winner, but all the prospects end up terrible and the Sox have a losing record every year, he can opt out to choose a new team, rather than demanding a trade but not having full control over where he goes.

 

EDIT: I'll add that the opt-out could get Harper more money without even having to use it. Like I said, 4 years down the road, maybe Harper would get $45 mil on the open market, but he loves it here and the Sox just won a title. If he makes it known he intends to opt-out, the Sox could negotiate an extension to pay him more without him even having to test the market again.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Roughneck

[Jack Parkman]

53 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

No it isn't.  People have lost sight of the point of offense.  The point of offense is to score runs.  This is an incredibly easy and simple concept that sometimes gets lost in the statistical revolution.  Usually not making outs helps.  But not always.  

 

Now you may return to your regularly scheduled program of half the people think Bryce is obviously better and half thinking Manny is obviously better.  Sorry.  I had to vent.

If you make fewer  outs run scoring will take care of itself, but I digress. 

Making fewer outs is the most efficient way to score more runs. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Perfect Vision]

I expect there will be opt outs or swellopts in these contracts, but ultimately I don't think they will be exercised by either Harper or Machado.  The reason these guys are about to get enormous contracts is because of their youth, plain and simple.  Teams almost never get the opportunity to buy a star player's age 26-28 seasons through free agency; therefore, whoever signs these guys will be willing to pay a premium on the mid-30s years in order to get those age 26-28 seasons.

If these guys opt out of their contracts when they are 29 years old, teams will no longer be willing to pay that premium on the mid-30s years and they will be getting offers similar to what JD Martinez got from the Red Sox last year (5/110).  From a numbers perspective, Martinez' last 4 seasons before he became a free agent were comparable to Harper's.

Both of these guys may prefer different teams/markets to the ones they will likely be signing with this offseason, but they would almost certainly be taking less money to play there if they opt out in 3 years or so.  I don't think they will do that.

There is some speculation that the new CBA, if/when it's agreed to, could change the market for these guys such that they would want to opt out.  However, I think it's more likely that the new CBA will change the rules regarding pre-free agency salaries, so younger players will be paid more fairly in accordance with their performance.  Just my opinion. 

[Roughneck]

3 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I expect there will be opt outs or swellopts in these contracts, but ultimately I don't think they will be exercised by either Harper or Machado.  The reason these guys are about to get enormous contracts is because of their youth, plain and simple.  Teams almost never get the opportunity to buy a star player's age 26-28 seasons through free agency; therefore, whoever signs these guys will be willing to pay a premium on the mid-30s years in order to get those age 26-28 seasons.

If these guys opt out of their contracts when they are 29 years old, teams will no longer be willing to pay that premium on the mid-30s years and they will be getting offers similar to what JD Martinez got from the Red Sox last year (5/110).  From a numbers perspective, Martinez' last 4 seasons before he became a free agent were comparable to Harper's.

Both of these guys may prefer different teams/markets to the ones they will likely be signing with this offseason, but they would almost certainly be taking less money to play there if they opt out in 3 years or so.  I don't think they will do that.

There is some speculation that the new CBA, if/when it's agreed to, could change the market for these guys such that they would want to opt out.  However, I think it's more likely that the new CBA will change the rules regarding pre-free agency salaries, so younger players will be paid more fairly in accordance with their performance.  Just my opinion. 

You are correct, but the variable is the market. If the new CBA has something to force higher payrolls, teams might be spending more for talent. Payrolls across MLB have been far more stagnant than in the other major sports over the last 18 years, so they could be due for a correction. Maybe that means everybody else gets more money but top guys stay around $35 mil a year, or maybe it means $35 mil players are now valued at $50 mil a year. But we do know that the PA screwed up big time last time around and the next deal will be much different.

[bmags]

I think a swell-opt is almost certain but I think teams have shown quite a bit more leverage in last few years and I think there will not be a straight up opt out.