jenksycat Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, ptatc said: The solution would be to get to free agency earlier. However, I have no idea what they would need to give up to get that. Salary cap + non-guaranteed deals I'd assume. The solution to me seems to just be: increase pay for the young guys exponentially. Minor leagues should make a living salary, and arbitration earlier so young stud MLB players don't make < 1m for several prime years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Then the small market teams losing guys like Lindor after just 5 or 6 years would give up hope. It would go against the idea of investing time and energy in following the prospects during a rebuild if you were just going to lose them. There needs to be something like a franchise player tag or max contract or whatever to give those teams a shot. Perhaps the current freeze is giving those guys like Jiminez and Vladimir Jr. an incentive to sign a huge long term deal before they ever set foot on a MLB field...buying out a year or two of free agency. I never said it would be good for the teams, I said the players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, jenksycat said: Salary cap + non-guaranteed deals I'd assume. The solution to me seems to just be: increase pay for the young guys exponentially. Minor leagues should make a living salary, and arbitration earlier so young stud MLB players don't make < 1m for several prime years. I can't see them giving up the holy grail of the guaranteed contract. The owners wouldn't give up just increasing the pay for young players for no reason. I guess they could fight for arbitration earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, ptatc said: I can't see them giving up the holy grail of the guaranteed contract. The owners wouldn't give up just increasing the pay for young players for no reason. I guess they could fight for arbitration earlier. NBA has a salary cap and floor and guaranteed contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, ptatc said: I wasn't taking dangerous as likelyhood of injury. I took it in the context of volatile and dangerous to predict performance. I agree that they have a greater likelyhood to get injured. All the more reason to have a greater number of quality ones. That's why they are more volatile... That's why I used the word dangerous? Volatility in performance is tied greatly to injury. It's why when deciding between investing heavily in an arm or a bat, you should always chose a bat; which was the exact opposite argument of your initial post. Edited February 2, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ptatc said: Again, it makes common sense but that doesn't meanit's TRUE. Until someone calculates it, you can't definitively conclude this. Someone did calculate it. https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just to make myself and some others nervous, but here's something that a pretty well-respected cubs insider posted tonight. No idea what it's about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: NBA has a salary cap and floor and guaranteed contracts. And how tough would it be for the owners to take away those guarantees? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: That's why they are more volatile... That's why I used the word dangerous? Volatility in performance is tied greatly to injury. It's why when deciding between investing heavily in an arm or a bat, you should always chose a bat; which was the exact opposite argument of your initial post. Should you choose the bat or add to the pitching which you know has a better chance of getting injured and becoming more of a liability. Adding all the hitting you want won't help if they lose pitching and don't have at least a decent replacement. This is why the GMs make the money. Edited February 2, 2019 by ptatc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, ptatc said: And how tough would it be for the owners to take away those guarantees? Probably a full season lost to a lockout and a judge ordering the sides to end the lockout with no agreement a-la MLB 1994. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 He's a real nowhere man Sitting in his nowhere land Making all his nowhere plans for nobody Doesn't have a point of view Knows not where he's going to Isn't he a bit like you and me? Nowhere Man, please listen You don't know what you're missing Nowhere Man, the world is at your command He's as blind as he can be Just sees what he wants to see Nowhere Man can you see me at all? Nowhere Man, don't worry Take your time, don't hurry Leave it all till somebody else lends you a hand Doesn't have a point of view Knows not where he's going to Isn't he a bit like you and me? Nowhere Man, please listen You don't know what you're missing Nowhere Man, the world is at your command He's a real Nowhere Man Sitting in his nowhere land Making all his nowhere plans for nobody Making all his nowhere plans for nobody Making all his nowhere plans for nobody 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, mqr said: Someone did calculate it. https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/ This is all based on suggested predictive values of runs expectancy not based on actual values of what happened. I would prefer to see the actual values of what happened to see if it actually happened not an algorithm of what they think might happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Probably a full season lost to a lockout and a judge ordering the sides to end the lockout with no agreement a-la MLB 1994. Probably. I don't think anyone wants that so I don't think it would happen. Edited February 2, 2019 by ptatc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heirdog Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, fathom said: Just to make myself and some others nervous, but here's something that a pretty well-respected cubs insider posted tonight. No idea what it's about. Heyward and Kris Bryant to White Sox? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, fathom said: Just to make myself and some others nervous, but here's something that a pretty well-respected cubs insider posted tonight. No idea what it's about. Ick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spicygar Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 (edited) On 12/23/2018 at 9:16 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: What about something where if you become an allstar before your control clock runs out you immediately become a free agent the following season or the players arbitration hits average top 10 positional value. Makes teams try to extend cost controlled players or they lose them. I dunno its dumb but less control is needed Edited February 2, 2019 by Spicygar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, Spicygar said: What about something where if you become an allstar before your control clock runs out you immediately become a free agent the following season or the players arbitration hits average top 10 value. Makes teams try to extend cost controlled players or they lose them. I dunno its dumb but less control is needed It's hard to solve this without destroying any chance of a small market team competing. Guys hitting FA after elite seasons or because their performance is high woudl have destroyed any chance of the Royals or Native American Stereotypes making the playoffs, at least out of our division. Cleveland would have lost Corey Kluber back in 2014. The Royals would have lost Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, and Kelvin Herrera in 2013. Your other one, guys being allowed FA if their arbitration n umber is too high, would ruin any motivation for teams to sign players to extensions early, because truly elite players could hit FA 1 or 2 years early. Chris Sale would have hit FA this year, Harper and Machado maybe 2 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, fathom said: Just to make myself and some others nervous, but here's something that a pretty well-respected cubs insider posted tonight. No idea what it's about. Seeing as i think harper to the sox isnt very likely doesnt really bother me. But kris bryant and others have made it pretty clear their is no chance the cubs get him. Again who knows. Maybe its a super long con, but no way would boras go for that and not get a bidding war. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spicygar Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: It's hard to solve this without destroying any chance of a small market team competing. Guys hitting FA after elite seasons or because their performance is high woudl have destroyed any chance of the Royals or Native American Stereotypes making the playoffs, at least out of our division. Cleveland would have lost Corey Kluber back in 2014. The Royals would have lost Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, and Kelvin Herrera in 2013. Your other one, guys being allowed FA if their arbitration n umber is too high, would ruin any motivation for teams to sign players to extensions early, because truly elite players could hit FA 1 or 2 years early. Chris Sale would have hit FA this year, Harper and Machado maybe 2 years ago. Whats a small market team? Did any team in the league lose money last year? At least have a salary floor. If you cant or won't pay for good players you shouldn't own a team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, Soxbadger said: Seeing as i think harper to the sox isnt very likely doesnt really bother me. But kris bryant and others have made it pretty clear their is no chance the cubs get him. Again who knows. Maybe its a super long con, but no way would boras go for that and not get a bidding war. To me, it’s more of the threat of the Phillies if Harper goes somewhere else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: It's hard to solve this without destroying any chance of a small market team competing. Guys hitting FA after elite seasons or because their performance is high woudl have destroyed any chance of the Royals or Native American Stereotypes making the playoffs, at least out of our division. Cleveland would have lost Corey Kluber back in 2014. The Royals would have lost Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, and Kelvin Herrera in 2013. Your other one, guys being allowed FA if their arbitration n umber is too high, would ruin any motivation for teams to sign players to extensions early, because truly elite players could hit FA 1 or 2 years early. Chris Sale would have hit FA this year, Harper and Machado maybe 2 years ago. How about true revenue sharing of a percentage of local revenue. I wonder if the large market owners would go for it if there was a higher level of a luxury tax. It could funnel more money to other teams yet allow the large market teams to spend more if they want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, fathom said: To me, it’s more of the threat of the Phillies if Harper goes somewhere else. If the Sox want to play with the big boys, they have to be able to outbid the Phillies. Phillies couldnt even land Corbin. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 48 minutes ago, ptatc said: Should you choose the bat or add to the pitching which you know has a better chance of getting injured and becoming more of a liability. Adding all the hitting you want won't help if they lose pitching and don't have at least a decent replacement. This is why the GMs make the money. Position players are more valuable than pitchers because of raw usage. It's really that simple. Reliability and frequency matter a lot in long term contracts. It's why the longest and biggest contracts will always go to hitters before pitchers. Signing a bunch of pitchers under the premise of expected injury is not a good way to allocate funds to maximize return. You don't sign a guy for any decent wage to be a security blanket for a guy you signed for a bigger wage. Injuries should be reactionary, despite assumed likelihood. Otherwise it's a misallocation of funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Position players are more valuable than pitchers because of raw usage. It's really that simple. Reliability and frequency matter a lot in long term contracts. It's why the longest and biggest contracts will always go to hitters before pitchers. Signing a bunch of pitchers under the premise of expected injury is not a good way to allocate funds to maximize return. You don't sign a guy for any decent wage to be a security blanket for a guy you signed for a bigger wage. Injuries should be reactionary, despite assumed likelihood. Otherwise it's a misallocation of funds. Isnt the highest AAV contract Greinke? Had he been 26 when he entered FA who knows what he would have gotten for years. The longest contracts have gone to hitters so far, but if youre talking per year, Greinke is tops. And in terms of AAV most are pitchers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy Harold Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, Soxbadger said: If the Sox want to play with the big boys, they have to be able to outbid the Phillies. Phillies couldnt even land Corbin. Couldn't or chose not to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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