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Harper to Phillies 13yr/330 mil


Kyyle23

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There is zero chance Harper signs with the Giants. He is going to make hundreds of millions no matter where he plays. He's already earned more money than he can spend in his lifetime unless he makes bad investments and develops a coke habit. Sure, he wants the biggest contract ever. But more than just the money, he is concerned with his legacy and how he will be viewed 50 years from now. That park is awful for lefty power hitters. Realistically, Harper might lose 100 homers off his career total playing in that park for a decade. Bryce wants to be considered one of the top 5 all-time greats. He isn't going to risk it because the Giants might be offering $50 mil more. He might not sign there for $100 mil more.

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5 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

That realistically only eliminates the Giants, right? Maybe the Yankees if they're even in the running.

Don't think so.

If Harper was hypothetically open to a short term deal, that would have introduced a number of potential suitors with playoff aspirations. 

I think, realistically, there was no chance from the get-go that Harper was going to sign a short term contract and the Giants offers/interest was overblown. 

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I can't tell if it's media driven due to interest or boras driven but with harper specifically that camp has seemed to do a really good job of creating the appearance of momentum each time they meet with someone (also spreading out the meetings).

But obviously, it hasn't changed the actual dynamic, they aren't signing a 2 year deal apparently.

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I have this strange feeling that the Sox are going to sign both Harper and Machado.

It really seems like the Sox and Phillies are the only two teams committed to making long term offers to these guys.  Everyone else's interest is always qualified as "short term" or "at their price."

It also seems like both players prefer the Sox over the Phillies if the offers are close.

Finally, I think the Phillies' willingness to spend "stupid money" has been overblown.  Otherwise, Patrick Corbin would be in camp with them right now and they probably already would have locked up one of the two stars.  I also think their apparent caving on the price for Realmuto is a sign that they are not confident about signing either player.  I know some people disagree with that but if I was about to commit $30 mil/per year to one player, I would be holding tight to my cost-controlled top prospects.

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https://www.yahoo.com/sports/favorite-emerged-sign-bryce-harper-235111205.html

We're not even connected to the top five choices on the current Harper odds.  Surprisingly, the Cubs aren't listed at least.

San Francisco Giants +100 (1/1)

San Diego Padres +250 (5/2)

Philadelphia Phillies +400 (4/1)

Los Angeles Dodgers +750 (15/2)

Washington Nationals +1000 (10/1)

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15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/favorite-emerged-sign-bryce-harper-235111205.html

We're not even connected to the top five choices on the current Harper odds.  Surprisingly, the Cubs aren't listed at least.

San Francisco Giants +100 (1/1)

San Diego Padres +250 (5/2)

Philadelphia Phillies +400 (4/1)

Los Angeles Dodgers +750 (15/2)

Washington Nationals +1000 (10/1)

The Giants being listed as the favorite tells you all you need to know about those odds 

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1 hour ago, Perfect Vision said:

I have this strange feeling that the Sox are going to sign both Harper and Machado.

It really seems like the Sox and Phillies are the only two teams committed to making long term offers to these guys.  Everyone else's interest is always qualified as "short term" or "at their price."

It also seems like both players prefer the Sox over the Phillies if the offers are close.

Finally, I think the Phillies' willingness to spend "stupid money" has been overblown.  Otherwise, Patrick Corbin would be in camp with them right now and they probably already would have locked up one of the two stars.  I also think their apparent caving on the price for Realmuto is a sign that they are not confident about signing either player.  I know some people disagree with that but if I was about to commit $30 mil/per year to one player, I would be holding tight to my cost-controlled top prospects.

Brother, I'm on board. There is a coyness from the Sox end when it comes to this. I'm convincing myself that they are trying to get Machado at a premium to pull this off. Harper is on standby to see if it happens. Based on the leaked footage from the UC, this may have been part of the presentation to both.  And it has been hinted at multiple times over the last 3 months how blown away Harper was by the Sox presentation. It doesn't make sense why they came so hard at Harper (unless he told them straight away it wasnt happening) and then immediately pivoted so hard to Machado. Maybe Harper was presented this and told them if they get it done, he's on board. Had to move quickly to Machado.

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Pull a Kane/Toews but with free agency instead, and sign them both to the exact same offer on the same day. If Boras really needs his win, give him 1m extra per year.

Get it done. 

The low offer leaks make sense. Keep other teams off of the trail. If all of this is true, the Sox could truly be offering contracts worth 300 million or more. 

I have a hard time believing it all though. It seems like too much of a perfect world scenario, and as a Sox fan I am conditioned to expect the worst, and barely consider perfect world scenarios. 

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4 hours ago, iamshack said:

I know this was posted in the Machado thread but I think it's worth sharing here too. Offers some interesting perspective on our pursuit of Harper and is relevant to many of the new posts in this thread.

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3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I know this was posted in the Machado thread but I think it's worth sharing here too. Offers some interesting perspective on our pursuit of Harper and is relevant to many of the new posts in this thread.

With Realmuto now in place, those three year opt out deals for getting both Harper and Machado to sign with the Phillies make even more sense.  Stupid money, remember.  $650~700, as opposed to $800 million worth.  Better chance at a World Series together (paired w Segura, McCutcheon, Robertson) and with only the Dodgers looming as realistic NL threats unless the Cubs get a huge resurgence from their starting pitching.

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18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

With Realmuto now in place, those three year opt out deals for getting both Harper and Machado to sign with the Phillies make even more sense.  Stupid money, remember.  $650~700, as opposed to $800 million worth.  Better chance at a World Series together (paired w Segura, McCutcheon, Robertson) and with only the Dodgers looming as realistic NL threats unless the Cubs get a huge resurgence from their starting pitching.

The Brewers are a totally realistic World Series threat from the national league on paper.

You can come up with any number of things that could go wrong - injuries, struggles by Cain or Yelich, etc. - but on paper they're as good or better than they were to end last season. Some of the guys in their bullpen should be starting for them this year, which should strengthen their rotation, and they upgraded their catching spot. 

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23 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The Brewers are a totally realistic World Series threat from the national league on paper.

You can come up with any number of things that could go wrong - injuries, struggles by Cain or Yelich, etc. - but on paper they're as good or better than they were to end last season. Some of the guys in their bullpen should be starting for them this year, which should strengthen their rotation, and they upgraded their catching spot. 

Didn't one of the projection models have them in 3rd or 4th place with a sub .500 record?  Probably Pecota.

At any rate, the White Sox still might not be competitive with Harpchado combined until 2021.

They would roll out of the gate as NL East favorites if they both signed, although obviously Atlanta and Washington will be both be tough tasks for anyone.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Didn't one of the projection models have them in 3rd or 4th place with a sub .500 record?  Probably Pecota.

At any rate, the White Sox still might not be competitive with Harpchado combined until 2021.

They would roll out of the gate as NL East favorites if they both signed, although obviously Atlanta and Washington will be both be tough tasks for anyone.

Pecota has the Brewers at 89 wins, highest total in the NL Central. Fangraphs has them much lower because FG is not a fan of their starting pitching and it expects dropoffs from guys like Cain and Yelich.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Pecota has the Brewers at 89 wins, highest total in the NL Central. Fangraphs has them much lower because FG is not a fan of their starting pitching and it expects dropoffs from guys like Cain and Yelich.

Yelich might not repeat, but Cain's defense should stand up and Arcia looks like he could really progress coming off his fine postseason play.

They also go 8~9 deep in their starting pitching depth, and that's going to be quite meaningful over a long season.

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