Harper + Machado?

[Chicago White Sox]

So there have been several insiders suggesting the Sox want to add both Harper & Machado this offseason.  The latest was good ole’ Bob Nightengale:

What does the board think?  Is there is any chance of this happening?  Can this even financially work?  If we somehow add them both, where does the team go from here?  Look, I’m one of the more optimistic posters on this board and even I think the idea is crazy, but I do think it’s a fun exercise to think through.

[Bob Sacamano]

Really don't think it happens but cool that they're trying. I'll gladly take one.

[caulfield12]

Sure, if we’re willing to field $160-180 million payrolls on a yearly basis.

It’s still going to require at least a 40% hit rate on our Top 12 prospects, and assumes Jimenez will be a hitting star.

$80-90 million spread across 3 players (logically, they need at least one veteran stud pitcher to solidify the rotation) for an organization that only operated like a large market team from 2006-2008 would be a huge leap of faith.

[daggins]

Machado 5%

Harper 10%

Both - .5%

It'd be fun, but it ain't happening.

[bschmaranz]

Can it happen?  Sure.  Will it happen, that's pretty unlikely.  I will say this, you'll see my ass at a lot of games this season if they make that commitment to us.

[ChiSoxJon]

That'll be sure to draw some more fans AND show commitment to winning

What a lineup we'd have in a year or two:

Collins/Zavala

Abreu/Alonso

Moncada

Anderson

Machado/Sanchez

Harper/Robert/Eloy

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So there have been several insiders suggesting the Sox want to add both Harper & Machado this offseason.  The latest was good ole’ Bob Nightengale:

What does the board think?  Is there is any chance of this happening?  Can this even financially work?  If we somehow add them both, where does the team go from here?  Look, I’m one of the more optimistic posters on this board and even I think the idea is crazy, but I do think it’s a fun exercise to think through.

I think you might be the single most disappointed person on the board if the Sox sign neither.

[ChiSoxJon]

2 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

That'll be sure to draw some more fans AND show commitment to winning

What a lineup we'd have in a year or two:

Collins/Zavala

Abreu/Alonso

Moncada

Anderson

Machado/Sanchez

Harper/Robert/Eloy

Robert, Machado, Harper, Abreu, Eloy, Moncada, Alonso, Collins, Anderson

[ChiSoxJon]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So there have been several insiders suggesting the Sox want to add both Harper & Machado this offseason.  The latest was good ole’ Bob Nightengale:

What does the board think?  Is there is any chance of this happening?  Can this even financially work?  If we somehow add them both, where does the team go from here?  Look, I’m one of the more optimistic posters on this board and even I think the idea is crazy, but I do think it’s a fun exercise to think through.

A chance? yes, likely? no...Absolutely can work financially

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Can it happen?  Sure.  Will it happen, that's pretty unlikely.  I will say this, you'll see my ass at a lot of games this season if they make that commitment to us.

Mark my words, if we land both (hell even just one) I will buy each of their jerseys. 

Edited December 15, 2018 by soxfan2014

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

Mark my words, if we land both (hell even just one) I will buy each of their jerseys. 

Oh yeah, for sure.  I need a new black one, "Machado" would look nice on the back.  My Bo Jackson one is on it's last legs.

[Thad Bosley]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So there have been several insiders suggesting the Sox want to add both Harper & Machado this offseason.  The latest was good ole’ Bob Nightengale:

What does the board think?  Is there is any chance of this happening?  Can this even financially work?  If we somehow add them both, where does the team go from here?  Look, I’m one of the more optimistic posters on this board and even I think the idea is crazy, but I do think it’s a fun exercise to think through.

If you go in with the premise that we won’t be outbid by anyone else for either, which I happen to believe will be the case based on everything we’ve read to date, then I think there is a strong chance we could get both.  With history as our guide, players usually go where they’re offered the most money.  

For me, and using the Torii Hunter signing of a few years ago as the example, where the Sox’ offer then was $75M, only to be blown out of the water by the $90M offer by the Angels, I think this offseason we are the $90M bid for both Harper and Machado.  It doesn’t make sense otherwise to get this deep into the process without planning to have the highest bid for both on the table when all is said and done.  

So I think we’ll offer the most money to both, and at the end of the day, I think both will eventually go where they’ll make the most money - 35th & Shields!

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, so here are my thoughts.  First & foremost, the question of whether or not this can happen comes down to money.  Trying to be objective here, I’m going to consider a couple of pieces of information.  Let’s start with Forbes’ valuation after the 2017 season:

https://www.forbes.com/teams/chicago-white-sox/

This article suggests we made $30M in operating profit after the 2017 season.  While this shows player expenses of $119M, our major league payroll was only $98M according to BP:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=CHA

For this analysis, the $98M of payroll and the $30M of operating profit are the key numbers to focus on.  All other items (draft & LatAm spending, minor league spending, etc) will be held constant.  What this immediately suggests is we could have afforded a $130M payroll last year.  And that’s with pretty pathetic gate receipts.  

So what has changed since then?  The MLB has renewed it’s contract with Fox, resulting in an additional $7M/year in revenue per team.  For sake of math, let’s say that our payroll potential at $140M.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thewrap.com/fox-extends-its-tv-deal-with-major-league-baseball-through-2028/amp/

But in the grand scheme of things that is pretty insignificant.  The real potential comes with our next TV deal with should go into effect after the 2019 season.  Right now, we earn somewhere between $50M to $55M for our broadcast rights.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

I can’t find the source, but there is some speculation our revenue could double as a result of this new TV deal.  But given this is simply speculation, let’s be conservative and say our next deal will pay us $25M more, which would be an50% increase.  That would put our payroll potential around $165M and that again is with our current gate receipts.

So what would it take to pay both Harper & Machado?  Let’s be aggressive and say they earn a combined $85M in the early years.  That’s about half of our potential payroll.  But that’s at current gate receipt levels and adding two mega stars would definitey change that.  Even at just 2M in attendance (2011 levels), we should see a $12M increase in gate receipts plus a decent amount in parking, concessions, etc.  Let’s call it $20M all-in, putting a conservative  payroll estimate for the near-term at $185M.  That allows us to spend $100M on top of Harper & Machado.

TLDR - Yes, we can afford to add both Harper & Machado and still have enough payroll flexibility to build a competitive roster.

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think you might be the single most disappointed person on the board if the Sox sign neither.

Lol...I refuse to accept that’s a possibility, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

[103 mph screwball]

Disclaimer:  do not let this get your hopes up too high.

Absolutely possible.  And I think they are doing their best to make it happen.  Jerry Reinsdorf was a pioneer in cable sports TV.  He signed free agents Ron LaFlore and Carlton Fisk before the 1981 season.  In 1982, Sportsvision was started.  It was before it’s time.  But Reinsdorf is an excellent businessman and television pioneer.

Now, today I imagine the television offers are not overwhelming.  What better way to create a buzz for a new contract but to make the biggest free agent splash in history!  The money is not only there, but it can be seen as not just an expense, but an investment. Tell both players you want them both as part of your plans to become a winner again.  Then blow them away with highest contract offers.  Hell sign them BOTH on the same day!  Make it a media circus!

Edited December 15, 2018 by 103 mph screwball
Can’t spell

[Thad Bosley]

2 minutes ago, 103 mph screwball said:

Disclaimer:  do not let this get your hopes up too high.

Absolutely possible.  And I think they are doing their best to make it happen.  Jerry Reinsdorf was a pioneer in cable sports TV.  He signed free agents Ron LaFlore and Carlton Fisk before the 1981 season.  In 1982, Sportsvision was started.  It was before it’s time.  But Reinsdorf is an excellent businessman and television pioneer.

Now, today I imagine the television offers are not overwhelming.  What better way to create a buzz for a new contract but to make the biggest free agent splash in history!  The money is not only there, but it can be seen as not just an expense, but an investment. Tell both players you want them both as part of your plans to become a winner again.  Then blow them away with highest contract offers.  Hell sign them BOTH on the same day!  Make it a media circus!

Bill Veeck signed Ron LeFlore right before he sold the team to Reinsdorf.  And Reinsdorf made his fortune in real estate, not television.  It was Eddie Einhorn who was the so-called “television pioneer”, although you would have never known it with his decision to take the Sox off of the superstation WGN during the early ‘80s and instead plopping the games on pay TV for what at that time would be the equivalent of around $60 a month in today’s dollars to watch White Sox baseball.  Real tv genius, that guy   

 

[soxfan49]

Elisha Cuthbert + Ariana Grande?

also in my dreams

[ChiSox59]

The Sox can absolutely afford both, especially if the contracts are frontloaded and structured with advantageous opt outs. But uncle Jerry better be prepared to up the payroll over $150M.

its unlikely, but getting one helps the offs of getting another. What better may to prove to these guys you aren’t messing around. 

[103 mph screwball]

2 minutes ago, Fan O'Faust said:

Bill Veeck signed Ron LeFlore right before he sold the team to Reinsdorf.  And Reinsdorf made his fortune in real estate, not television.  It was Eddie Einhorn who was the so-called “television pioneer”, although you would have never known it with his decision to take the Sox off of the superstation WGN during the early ‘80s and instead plopping the games on pay TV for what at that time would be the equivalent of around $60 a month in today’s dollars to watch White Sox baseball.  Real tv genius, that guy   

 

Thank you for the correction on LaFlore.  Honestly I was going from memory.  I was 10 years old.  I still remember both signings.  It was exciting!  Stolen bases were fun!  Carlton Fisk was and is my favorite player ever.  Spotsvision was an absolute dismal failure on many levels. It was before it’s time.  I choose to be optimistic that the Sox are going for bold moves.  

[BigHurt3515]

I don't really want to commit that much money to two players.

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, so here are my thoughts.  First & foremost, the question of whether or not this can happen comes down to money.  Trying to be objective here, I’m going to consider a couple of pieces of information.  Let’s start with Forbes’ valuation after the 2017 season:

https://www.forbes.com/teams/chicago-white-sox/

This article suggests we made $30M in operating profit after the 2017 season.  While this shows player expenses of $119M, our major league payroll was only $98M according to BP:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/?team=CHA

For this analysis, the $98M of payroll and the $30M of operating profit are the key numbers to focus on.  All other items (draft & LatAm spending, minor league spending, etc) will be held constant.  What this immediately suggests is we could have afforded a $130M payroll last year.  And that’s with pretty pathetic gate receipts.  

So what has changed since then?  The MLB has renewed it’s contract with Fox, resulting in an additional $7M/year in revenue per team.  For sake of math, let’s say that our payroll potential at $140M.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thewrap.com/fox-extends-its-tv-deal-with-major-league-baseball-through-2028/amp/

But in the grand scheme of things that is pretty insignificant.  The real potential comes with our next TV deal with should go into effect after the 2019 season.  Right now, we earn somewhere between $50M to $55M for our broadcast rights.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

I can’t find the source, but there is some speculation our revenue could double as a result of this new TV deal.  But given this is simply speculation, let’s be conservative and say our next deal will pay us $25M more, which would be an50% increase.  That would put our payroll potential around $165M and that again is with our current gate receipts.

So what would it take to pay both Harper & Machado?  Let’s be aggressive and say they earn a combined $85M in the early years.  That’s about half of our potential payroll.  But that’s at current gate receipt levels and adding two mega stars would definitey change that.  Even at just 2M in attendance (2011 levels), we should see a $12M increase in gate receipts plus a decent amount in parking, concessions, etc.  Let’s call it $20M all-in, putting a conservative  payroll estimate for the near-term at $185M.  That allows us to spend $100M on top of Harper & Machado.

TLDR - Yes, we can afford to add both Harper & Machado and still have enough payroll flexibility to build a competitive roster.

You’re also looking at a $5.0 - 7.5 million negative swing in revenue sharing....as we’ve been a net positive recipient of subsidies the last five years due to poor gate revenues, that’s going to swing the other direction where we would actually be making payments to be distributed.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, 103 mph screwball said:

Thank you for the correction on LaFlore.  Honestly I was going from memory.  I was 10 years old.  I still remember both signings.  It was exciting!  Stolen bases were fun!  Carlton Fisk was and is my favorite player ever.  Spotsvision was an absolute dismal failure on many levels. It was before it’s time.  I choose to be optimistic that the Sox are going for bold moves.  

Don’t forget Rudy Law and Julio Take Me on A Sea Cruz.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You’re also looking at a $5.0 - 7.5 million negative swing in revenue sharing....as we’ve been a net positive recipient of subsidies the last five years due to poor gate revenues, that’s going to swing the other direction where we would actually be making payments to be distributed.

Lol...are you actually suggesting we are a revenue sharing recipient?  Do you just make stuff up?

Edited December 15, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[103 mph screwball]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Don’t forget Rudy Law and Julio Take Me on A Sea Cruz.

I I have not forgotten them!  But I think Tony Bernazard came first.  And I think Law replaced LaFlore.  But again from my old ass cottage cheese memory.  

[soxfan49]

7 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

I don't really want to commit that much money to two players.

What if in 2024, Eloy is an MVP candidate every year and Kopech has a sub 3.00 ERA every year. Do you want to commit that much money to two players?