Harper + Machado?

[bmags]

So of all the teams so far, despite Phillies public overtures that they are in on both, only the sox rolled out red carpet for both, with public owner support.

That does feel right to me that sox are serious and I do think I would be crushed to hear sox weren't actual bidders (in the sense that they thought they could get in on lower end of what was speculated).

[wrathofhahn]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

So of all the teams so far, despite Phillies public overtures that they are in on both, only the sox rolled out red carpet for both, with public owner support.

That does feel right to me that sox are serious and I do think I would be crushed to hear sox weren't actual bidders (in the sense that they thought they could get in on lower end of what was speculated).

I don't see a market for Harper right now. I'd be more crushed if they signed him to a bad deal then not at all.

But that doesn't seem to be the thinking of others here

[bmags]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

I don't see a market for Harper right now. I'd be more crushed if they signed him to a bad deal then not at all.

But that doesn't seem to be the thinking of others here

I would be shocked if Harper signed for less than Machado, shocked. 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I would be shocked if Harper signed for less than Machado, shocked. 

I think the guy who signs second gets the most money.  Once one goes off of the board, the remaining teams get desperate.

[wrathofhahn]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would be shocked if Harper signed for less than Machado, shocked. 

I mean it's Boras so anything is possible but right now I don't see the market for it among the big market clubs. Machado seems to be the focus and it makes sense if you are going 10 years you need a player who will hold up defensively. Machado will probably hold up at least 6-7 years at 3B.

Hell even the philies signed McCutchen and they play in the NL which should limit term. At least it would for me they won't be able to hide his defense at DH when he gets older. Cubs are set. Astros are set and just signed Brantley. Mets added a bunch of salary. Yankees have a crowded OF already. Redsox are tapped out and deep in the luxury tax. Dodgers have a ton OF depth already also near the lux tax.

There was sort of this notion that all these big market teams were saving up to make a run at Machado and Harper. I haven't seen reporting of that if anything they are going out of their way to keep their fanbases expectations in check and not be used by Boras/Don Nationals offer leaked probably by Boras to drum up interest. I think there is sort of the expectation that it will take at least a contract similar to when Stanton was traded to sign Harper longterm.

Edited December 18, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[yesterday333]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think the guy who signs second gets the most money.  Once one goes off of the board, the remaining teams get desperate.

I think Harper will wait until MM signs because of this... which also makes me think if LAD don't offer as much it will be between us and the phils, giving us a nice shot at Harper

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Anyone else feel like this has a legit chance of happening?  If I were a betting man, I could see the odds being like 25% that we land both at this point.

While in the Alonso trade thread I was kind of amazed so many saw a problem with it. I mean what's the downside  when compared to the upside which is something I posted in that thread......." the whining about Alonso is off the charts absurd when if you really think about it, it could end up in a chain reaction like this : Alonso = Machado = Harper =OMFG ! "

[Lillian]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Let's get one guy signed first, then we can talk about two.  The other interesting thing is say we were to sign Machado, it could set us up to facilitate someone like the Dodgers getting Harper.  Think about it, with the money they need to dump, the Sox could actually receive a lot of talent for not much of a price to help the Dodgers free up cash.  It might actually be more talent combined than a Bryce Harper alone depending on how deals were structured.

Now there's an insightful suggestion. Let another team overpay for Harper and, or need to off load some talent and salary. We could step in and "help" them out, with pleasure. We have plenty of outfield prospects coming, so a shorter term commitment might suit the Sox, just fine. 

[nitetrain8601]

9 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Now there's an insightful suggestion. Let another team overpay for Harper and, or need to off load some talent and salary. We could step in and "help" them out, with pleasure. We have plenty of outfield prospects coming, so a shorter term commitment might suit the Sox, just fine. 

Problem is the Sox need pitching. Unless you're getting Puig, Urias and Wood - I don't see how it helps us out unless there's a third team.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I don't see a market for Harper right now. I'd be more crushed if they signed him to a bad deal then not at all.

But that doesn't seem to be the thinking of others here

What do you consider a bad deal?  

Can't wait for this answer.  

[bmags]

1 minute ago, nitetrain8601 said:

Problem is the Sox need pitching. Unless you're getting Puig, Urias and Wood - I don't see how it helps us out unless there's a third team.

I do think the sox should be going after Wood, though. 

[wrathofhahn]

33 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What do you consider a bad deal?  

Can't wait for this answer.  

I said what I would offer earlier basically my targets would be with both players. Basically Harper I don't have a ton of interest longterm because in the backend of the deal he's going to be a DH. I think I said 8 years 28 million AAV or 225 million. For Machado it was 9 years 30 million or 270.

I think someone is going to offer him what the nationals did 10/284 mainly on the basis Boras feels he can get that otherwise he wouldn't have declined the offer I am not sure of who though. I have no interest though for the sox to pay Harper 30 million to DH for the last 4 years of his deal through ages 37,36,35,34. He can barely play the field now at 26. If you look at JD deal his deal is 22 million AAV (declines in salary as he gets older) and carries him through age 34.

Which is where 8 years on Harper deal would take him. Machado you can go longer with because eventhough his bat isn't the same he's been a positive defender at 3B basically his entire career which will likely carry well into his 30's.

Edited December 18, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I said what I would offer earlier basically my targets would be with both players. Basically Harper I don't have a ton of interest longterm because in the backend of the deal he's going to be a DH. I think I said 8 years 28 million AAV or 225 million. For Machado it was 9 years 30 million or 270.

I think someone is going to offer him what the nationals did 10/284 mainly on the basis Boras feels he can get that otherwise he wouldn't have declined the offer I am not sure of who though. I have no interest though for the sox to pay Harper 30 million to DH for the last 4 years of his deal through ages 37,36,35,34. He can barely play the field now at 26. If you look at JD deal his deal is 22 million AAV (declines in salary as he gets older) and carries him through age 34.

Which is where 8 years on Harper deal would take him. Machado you can go longer with because eventhough his bat isn't the same he's been a positive defender at 3B basically his entire career which will likely carry well into his 30's.

You're not getting either player for these terms, and we know the Sox are offering more than that or MM and Harper wouldn't be wasting their time.

And both are going to get opt-outs, and likely will take them.  Paying Harper $30M+ in his 30's probably isn't going to happen, because he'll have opted out and someone will be paying him more! 

[bmags]

Just want to repost Eno Sarris on who will age better:

https://theathletic.com/719317/2018/12/18/who-will-age-better-bryce-harper-or-manny-machado/

The board sentiment that Machado's defense carries him does not factor in that his bat may not age as well as harpers, and the market pays more for offense than defense.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

38 minutes ago, bmags said:

Just want to repost Eno Sarris on who will age better:

https://theathletic.com/719317/2018/12/18/who-will-age-better-bryce-harper-or-manny-machado/

The board sentiment that Machado's defense carries him does not factor in that his bat may not age as well as harpers, and the market pays more for offense than defense.

I often wonder what leads to anyone thinking one will age better than another ? I always read posts like that and think how the hell does one even figure that ? It's not like they look at genetics/family health history. Machado has played a lot of games so he's been healthy while Harper has had his share of injuries. You could make an argument that injuries at a young age might be indicative that more injuries will follow as you age.

On the other hand you might say Machado has played a lot of games so might wear down sooner or think the law of averages might catch up to him and get more injuries . My point being there's no way of predicting how one ages when all it takes is one catastrophic injury to derail a whole career. In my eyes its mostly luck and genes and neither of those can be predicted or investigated through;y enough.

[TomPickle]

I think it's reasonable that Harper could age more gracefully as a player than Machado and if both were signed to 10 year deals that Harper would produce a greater amount of WAR over that 10 year period in total. If you sign either of them to a 10 year deal you are probably hoping for 5-6 years of consistent, elite level play. 2-3 years of solid play and then a year or two where you're probably just eating money for a borderline full time player.

My preference for Machado has more to do with fit an consistency. Over the course of say the next 7 years when you hope for 3.5+ WAR type of production from both I could see Harper's average WAR being higher than Machado's, but I would bet Machado's median WAR is higher. I think having a steady performance from a guy that plays 150+ games every year would be very beneficial for a young team.

[bmags]

25 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I often wonder what leads to anyone thinking one will age better than another ? I always read posts like that and think how the hell does one even figure that ? It's not like they look at genetics/family health history. Machado has played a lot of games so he's been healthy while Harper has had his share of injuries. You could make an argument that injuries at a young age might be indicative that more injuries will follow as you age.

On the other hand you might say Machado has played a lot of games so might wear down sooner or think the law of averages might catch up to him and get more injuries . My point being there's no way of predicting how one ages when all it takes is one catastrophic injury to derail a whole career. In my eyes its mostly luck and genes and neither of those can be predicted or investigated through;y enough.

 

 

They use a large sample of baseball players and track their stats (plate discipline, sprint speed, bat speed, etc) across ages to look at which skills deteriorate less than others and then assign that to the skills of the players. And you are right, there is no way to say definitively x will happen to a player, but you can look at tendencies across a population to help inform likelihoods.

And if any team is about to spend a significant investment I guarantee they are doing some projecting.

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

I think it's reasonable that Harper could age more gracefully as a player than Machado and if both were signed to 10 year deals that Harper would produce a greater amount of WAR over that 10 year period in total. If you sign either of them to a 10 year deal you are probably hoping for 5-6 years of consistent, elite level play. 2-3 years of solid play and then a year or two where you're probably just eating money for a borderline full time player.

My preference for Machado has more to do with fit an consistency. Over the course of say the next 7 years when you hope for 3.5+ WAR type of production from both I could see Harper's average WAR being higher than Machado's, but I would bet Machado's median WAR is higher. I think having a steady performance from a guy that plays 150+ games every year would be very beneficial for a young team.

I think so too, and also keep in mind the article from Sarris did not spell danger! It was just a counter to the prevailing wisdom that Machado was obviously going to be better.

[oldsox]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I said what I would offer earlier basically my targets would be with both players. Basically Harper I don't have a ton of interest longterm because in the backend of the deal he's going to be a DH. I think I said 8 years 28 million AAV or 225 million. For Machado it was 9 years 30 million or 270.

I think someone is going to offer him what the nationals did 10/284 mainly on the basis Boras feels he can get that otherwise he wouldn't have declined the offer I am not sure of who though. I have no interest though for the sox to pay Harper 30 million to DH for the last 4 years of his deal through ages 37,36,35,34. He can barely play the field now at 26. If you look at JD deal his deal is 22 million AAV (declines in salary as he gets older) and carries him through age 34.

Which is where 8 years on Harper deal would take him. Machado you can go longer with because eventhough his bat isn't the same he's been a positive defender at 3B basically his entire career which will likely carry well into his 30's.

You sure about that?

[turnin' two]

Wow.  Casey Stern on Inside Pitch on MLB network radio, just took a huge shit on the White Sox.  Basically said why would anyone ever want to play there, and no one cares that they won the World Series.  

My day was going too well apparently.  Casey put an end to that.  

I actually hope Jerry heard it, because if I were the owner, it would have made me mad enough to just say f- it, I'm signing both of those guys.  

[MiddleCoastBias]

6 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Wow.  Casey Stern on Inside Pitch on MLB network radio, just took a huge shit on the White Sox.  Basically said why would anyone ever want to play there, and no one cares that they won the World Series.  

My day was going too well apparently.  Casey put an end to that.  

I actually hope Jerry heard it, because if I were the owner, it would have made me mad enough to just say f- it, I'm signing both of those guys.  

I just had to Google who Casey Stern was so maybe that guy shouldn't get too big for his britches. Wikipedia says he hosted a show about the "Red Sox Nation" and is a die-hard Mets fans, so yeah, his opinion doesn't mean much to me either.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Wow.  Casey Stern on Inside Pitch on MLB network radio, just took a huge shit on the White Sox.  Basically said why would anyone ever want to play there, and no one cares that they won the World Series.  

My day was going too well apparently.  Casey put an end to that.  

I actually hope Jerry heard it, because if I were the owner, it would have made me mad enough to just say f- it, I'm signing both of those guys.  

You give way too much power to a stranger. 

[oldsox]

Casey Stern probably a Cub Fan.

[turnin' two]

24 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You give way too much power to a stranger. 

?

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by turnin' two

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

55 minutes ago, bmags said:

 

 

They use a large sample of baseball players and track their stats (plate discipline, sprint speed, bat speed, etc) across ages to look at which skills deteriorate less than others and then assign that to the skills of the players. And you are right, there is no way to say definitively x will happen to a player, but you can look at tendencies across a population to help inform likelihoods.

And if any team is about to spend a significant investment I guarantee they are doing some projecting.

I couldn't read the article so I just gave my opinion on it because every time I see it on this board I can guarantee they don't use the same factors as Sarris did. My projection is Harper has a big 2018 . He does particular well in his even age years .22 and 24 were his best years so 26 will be a big one . Nothing scientific about it and I'm just guessing .