Machado: Update - Manny, do you officially like us?

[TheTruth05]

2 minutes ago, raBBit said:

He didn't eliminate the Sox. Have you seen anyone say that in the media? The Sox aren't going to say "we're out on Harper" because they technically aren't but more importantly, they don't want to affect the Machado pursuit or make them seem desperate. Neither the Sox nor Boras Corp benefit from the the idea that the Sox are out on Harper. That's why there's just been silence ever since late last week. 

I'm not saying he did, but it's obvious from what you're hearing is the Sox are being used as a pawn. Not saying they're eliminated but it's highly unlikely he's taking the idea of playing for the Sox serious unless his preferred options fall apart.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Dodgers and Cubs all along were the 2 I thought were the only contenders.  What better way to try to motivate the Cubs to offer Harper than to say the Sox are the front runners?  

The Cubs are operating as a business under the Ricketts and I know for a fact they have to adhere to a budget right now.  They’d have to move significant salary to have any chance at Bryce.  And I don’t think the Cubs make important decisions with much consideration for the Sox, they only care what’s in their best interests.

[TheTruth05]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

The Cubs are operating as a business under the Ricketts and I know for a fact they have to adhere to a budget right now.  They’d have to move significant salary to have any chance at Bryce.  And I don’t think the Cubs make important decisions with much consideration for the Sox, they only care what’s in their best interests.

BUT DA CUBS!!

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I think Harper’s going to take some type of 10 year deal that’s incredibly front loaded with the anticipation that he opts-out in 3 years.

From who though? That still hurts the luxury tax teams in the sense that they count the AAV. I supposed he could take something like $40, $40, $40, $40 from Dodgers in the first 4 years. That guarantees him $160 million. They'd have to backload the back to get in line with a more respectable AAV though and I'm not sure that makes a ton of sense for the player. 

[raBBit]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The Phillies got outbid for Corbin & Happ, maybe you need to rethink what “Philly ridiculous” means.

Corbin got roughly $30M more than expected and Phillies rotation isn't exactly needing too much help. He's also a 30 year old pitcher.

Harper and Machado are 26 year old mega stars. They're a different market.

A Phillies fan can point to the White Sox being outbid on Familia as a rationale to having doubts on the Sox chances with the stars. I think you would disagree with that preposition though. 

[fathom]

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

From who though? That still hurts the luxury tax teams in the sense that they count the AAV. I supposed he could take something like $40, $40, $40, $40 from Dodgers in the first 4 years. That guarantees him $160 million. They'd have to backload the back to get in line with a more respectable AAV though and I'm not sure that makes a ton of sense for the player. 

Dodgers/Cubs, and yes the 10 years is just to lower the AAV for luxury tax reasons.  I also wonder if Yanks get involved again if they miss on Manny.

[wrathofhahn]

11 minutes ago, raBBit said:

It's pretty obvious Boras used them as a pawn. I was pretty pissed about it but I guess I am just "negative." That whole presser he did at the WM where he used hypothetical that all applied to Sox was such a coordinated crock of shit. The guy's incredible at his job for a reason but it still stings. 

 

8 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think if the Phillies stayed out of all this the Sox would set the market on both players. I have no idea what the Phillies idea of crazy is though. I think the Sox would be under them but likely a more desirable location as well. Phillies had such a chip on their shoulder coming into the offseason and the bar was set so high. Coming home without either of them would be a pretty big letdown. 

The Sox internally have had the same plan as Phili for over a year. They just didn't get all the media hullabaloo that Phili did because of their past spending history (and rightfully so.). This jump into the pursuit of the top free agents wasn't some sudden foray. They've been planning for this for some time.

Right now I'm not sure Boras in a position to use anyone as a pawn vis via Harper. If Machado signs with the Phillies we are really the only other obvious suitor left.

As far as to what qualifies as a stupid offer. Well the Yankees have been sourced repeatedly of not wanting to do a record breaking deal or go to 300 million. We have said we don't want to do a record breaking deal. Well the record is 13/325. The Stanton trade at the time was for 10/295. Harper Nationals offer was 10/284. At this time the Yankees are rumored to not what to go more then 8 years on Machado.

So through rumors we all have a pretty good idea of that the market is for both players. If the Phillies sign him for 400 million or even 350 million they overpaid significantly based on what the market is. There are basically only three spots for two players and the Yankees would be out if they lose Machado. We should continue to be patient.

Edited December 21, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[raBBit]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think Harper’s going to take some type of 10 year deal that’s incredibly front loaded with the anticipation that he opts-out in 3 years.

This would make sense because the cap hit the Dodgers take on is the AAV of his contract. For easy number, if he took a 10 year, 350 million dollar contract, they can pay him 45M a year years 1-3 but the affect on their cap would only be a $35M hit per year.

I believe I am interpreting the rules correctly someone correct please me if not.

[Soxbadger]

Just now, fathom said:

Dodgers/Cubs, and yes the 10 years is just to lower the AAV for luxury tax reasons.  I also wonder if Yanks get involved again if they miss on Manny.

I think that Boras is hoping that the Yankees miss on Machado.

I just dont see the Cubs as a possible option. It makes no sense for them, the money doesnt line up right and it would potentially limit them resigning their own players in the next few years.

 

[raBBit]

5 minutes ago, Baron said:

Oh BTW I'd like to thank the mods....this thread is much much better than the last one. Good discussion this morning so far. 

Wait until you know who wakes up. 

[Baron]

I'm not even really curious at where they go at this point. More like what's our Plan B. Does Rick Hahn try to save face and hit the trade market. Or shut it all down. 

[fathom]

1 minute ago, raBBit said:

This would make sense because the cap hit the Dodgers take on is the AAV of his contract. For easy number, if he took a 10 year, 350 million dollar contract, they can pay him 45M a year years 1-3 but the affect on their cap would only be a $35M hit per year.

I believe I am interpreting the rules correctly someone correct please me if not.

Correct, it’s why the Cubs added a year to Yu’s deal last year.  

[raBBit]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

I think that Boras is hoping that the Yankees miss on Machado.

I just dont see the Cubs as a possible option. It makes no sense for them, the money doesnt line up right and it would potentially limit them resigning their own players in the next few years.

 

God Theo Epstein is on a short list of best sports executives ever but it is hilarious that he did not learn from him his mistakes in Boston. He really blew his wad the wrong way following the WS. 

[bschmaranz]

Just now, Baron said:

I'm not even really curious at where they go at this point. More like what's our Plan B. Does Rick Hahn try to save face and hit the trade market. Or shut it all down. 

I'd say the latter is most likely.  Made put a few low cost bandaids on the bullet holes and go fishing next winter.

[Baron]

1 minute ago, raBBit said:

Wait until you know who wakes up. 

I was assuming(more like hoping) he got the boot for a few weeks. 

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

From who though? That still hurts the luxury tax teams in the sense that they count the AAV. I supposed he could take something like $40, $40, $40, $40 from Dodgers in the first 4 years. That guarantees him $160 million. They'd have to backload the back to get in line with a more respectable AAV though and I'm not sure that makes a ton of sense for the player. 

A front loaded deal would actually help the AAV in the beginning. His salary would be higher, but the luxury tax hit is lower.

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Baron said:

I'm not even really curious at where they go at this point. More like what's our Plan B. Does Rick Hahn try to save face and hit the trade market. Or shut it all down. 

Plan b is something I’ve thought of a lot and there are no easy answers.  I just hope the Sox don’t get caught off guard if they miss on these guys.

Edited December 21, 2018 by fathom

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Wait until you know who wakes up. 

He may be banned.

[TomPickle]

I don't know if there's language in place to stop teams from blatantly doing stuff like this, but if there isn't what's stopping a team from offering a 15 year deal where the last 5 years are all at $1 million with a player opt out before those 5 years? You could shave a ton off the AAV by doing something like that if you're trying to get around the luxury tax.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, raBBit said:

This would make sense because the cap hit the Dodgers take on is the AAV of his contract. For easy number, if he took a 10 year, 350 million dollar contract, they can pay him 45M a year years 1-3 but the affect on their cap would only be a $35M hit per year.

I believe I am interpreting the rules correctly someone correct please me if not.

You are correct and I just posted something similar.

[Y2Jimmy0]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Dodgers/Cubs, and yes the 10 years is just to lower the AAV for luxury tax reasons.  I also wonder if Yanks get involved again if they miss on Manny.

Dodgers maybe. The Cubs have real issues though. If the Dodgers do it though, they are likely going over the tax which is something they told their shareholders they wouldn't be doing. Should be interesting. 

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Baron said:

Corbin and Happ aren't Harper or Manny. Silly comparison. 

Exactly, they weren’t willing to blow out the competition for much more affordable targets, why do we think they’ll be any less measured when it comes to $300M+ deals?  I have no doubts the Phillies are prepared to make a massive offer, but this idea they’ll do whatever it takes to land a whale is all speculation at this point.  All teams have their limits and I think an Andy MacPhail led front office will hold his ground at some point.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, TomPickle said:

I don't know if there's language in place to stop teams from blatantly doing stuff like this, but if there isn't what's stopping a team from offering a 15 year deal where the last 5 years are all at $1 million with a player opt out before those 5 years? You could shave a ton off the AAV by doing something like that if you're trying to get around the luxury tax.

It's not based on AAV it's based on real dollars I am pretty sure of reading somewhere that is how it is done.

Edited December 21, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[iamshack]

Just now, raBBit said:

This would make sense because the cap hit the Dodgers take on is the AAV of his contract. For easy number, if he took a 10 year, 350 million dollar contract, they can pay him 45M a year years 1-3 but the affect on their cap would only be a $35M hit per year.

I believe I am interpreting the rules correctly someone correct please me if not.

Dodgers have provided payroll projections to investors for 2019-2022. Front-loading a Harper deal would, at the very least, make the first year of their projections very difficult to meet. Obviously these are non-binding, but they were also released with full knowledge of this year’s FA market. 

Could have been done as a bit of a smokescreen, but I don’t believe that. 

All that said, if Harper does go to LA, I’d expect there will be a significant opportunity for the Sox to take on some of their cash in exchange for useful pieces. 

I agree with Y2Jimmy though...i don’t see Boras taking a deal that’s well below Stanton’s total value. 

[raBBit]

I think people should take the Dodgers more seriously. They have the most money of any team, they have the most creative front office, they have money to move associated to players that are good (Hi Cubs!) and they are conceivably Harper's preferred location. Plus they came up short of the trophy just barely to years in a row. They have all the depth a playoff team could need, now it's time for them to shed some of it and make way for another premium talent.  Perhaps the hold up is they want to rid themselves of Matt Kemp and another productive player as opposed to 2-3 productive players and keeping Kemp on a team where he doesn't fit.