Pending White Sox Move? (*May contain partially digested news)

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I hung out with my buddy on Sunday and his cousin met us up. She works in merchandising for the team and is a buyer for the shops in the stadium. She seems really confident as well.

Wasn’t this the joke about them (workers) being told they would take a pay cut to afford both?

Edited December 26, 2018 by fathom

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Wasn’t this the joke about them (workers) being told they would take a pay cut to afford both?

No.

I think I posted something in that thread that day about how I would text my friend to ask her if she knew anything but I never got any sort of answer (that was over 2 weeks ago).

Edited December 26, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Dunt]

25 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Let's be optimistic for next year in adding wins

C : Castillo - +0
1B: Abreu/Alonso +1
2B: Moncada +2
SS: Anderson +1
3B: Machado +4
LF: Jimenez +3
CF: Engel +0
RF: Palka/Delmonico +0
DH: Abreu/Alonso/Palka +0

SP: Rodon +3
SP: Lopez +1
SP: Nova +0
SP: Giolito +2
SP: Covey +0

Of course WAR =/= wins outright but that's 17 WAR added there, which brings them to 79-83. Some guys are going to have down years though or just not improve. It doesn't seem wildly unrealistic this could be a .500 team with Machado and another competent position player and a bullpen piece or two.

I would say quite a few of these wouldn't be optimistic. Welington contributing nothing? Abreu/Alonso/Palka adding 1 win between them? Lopez being worth a win? Only one I'd say is optimistic is GIo being a 2 win pitcher next season.

[TomPickle]

1 minute ago, Dunt said:

I would say quite a few of these wouldn't be optimistic. Welington contributing nothing? Abreu/Alonso/Palka adding 1 win between them? Lopez being worth a win? Only one I'd say is optimistic is GIo being a 2 win pitcher next season.

Those are increases in WAR from the 2018 season. So Castillo would be worth ~3 fWAR, Abreu/Alonso ~2 fWAR, etc

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Dunt said:

I would say quite a few of these wouldn't be optimistic. Welington contributing nothing? Abreu/Alonso/Palka adding 1 win between them? Lopez being worth a win? Only one I'd say is optimistic is GIo being a 2 win pitcher next season.

That's not them being worth nothing, it's them being worth what they were last year.  The Catcher's spot was worth 3.3 fWAR to the Sox last year, so that's Wellington Castillo having the best season of his career.

[bighurt574]

1 hour ago, soxfan2014 said:

And not once in this paragraph is there mention of the pitching. The pitching has to take some major strides to be a good team.

 

If we land Machado I have to think we go out and add another SP to bridge the gap to Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc.  Contending in 2019 is a longshot but in a weak division you never know.  We'd obviously need a bunch of young guys to establish themselves.  

[Dunt]

3 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Those are increases in WAR from the 2018 season. So Castillo would be worth ~3 fWAR, Abreu/Alonso ~2 fWAR, etc

My bad, misunderstood your post. Carry on

[TomPickle]

Castillo was worth 2.7 fWAR in 2017 in 96 games. He could put up the same fWAR in 2018 in say 125 games and then McCann would have to pick up the slack to get to 3.3 fWAR as a position. I also wasn't necessarily worrying about tenths of a win as that seems needlessly exact for a metric that contains defensive ratings as a portion of value.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think it's worth considering that all 3 of those guys could show real progress, this team could sign Machado, Eloy could come up and be one of the best 3 LFs in baseball next year, and that might darn well leave this team in the 70s for wins. 

That's exactly what I said if you combine my posts  where I also said we might expect a 10-15 game improvement which puts us at 72-77 wins next year.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bighurt574 said:

 

If we land Machado I have to think we go out and add another SP to bridge the gap to Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc.  Contending in 2019 is a longshot but in a weak division you never know.  We'd obviously need a bunch of young guys to establish themselves.  

Who is left and what are you willing to pay for them? I'm ok with adding a guy like Pomeranz, but I'll bet there's a decent chance of Covey outpitching him. Gio could be reasonable  but I'll still expect a multi year deal with him, which means he's not a bridge guy. Right now, James Shields looks to have been in the top 5 of starting pitchers remaining.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Castillo was worth 2.7 fWAR in 2017 in 96 games. He could put up the same fWAR in 2018 in say 125 games and then McCann would have to pick up the slack to get to 3.3 fWAR as a position. I also wasn't necessarily worrying about tenths of a win as that seems needlessly exact for a metric that contains defensive ratings as a portion of value.

He certainly could. There's also a decent chance that those numbers were chemically enhanced. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

42 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Let's be optimistic for next year in adding wins

C : Castillo - +0
1B: Abreu/Alonso +1
2B: Moncada +2
SS: Anderson +1
3B: Machado +4
LF: Jimenez +3
CF: Engel +0
RF: Palka/Delmonico +0
DH: Abreu/Alonso/Palka +0

SP: Rodon +3
SP: Lopez +1
SP: Nova +0
SP: Giolito +2
SP: Covey +0

Of course WAR =/= wins outright but that's 17 WAR added there, which brings them to 79-83. Some guys are going to have down years though or just not improve. It doesn't seem wildly unrealistic this could be a .500 team with Machado and another competent position player and a bullpen piece or two.

Now add Harper to that lineup as well and the team could make a legitimate run at the Indians for the division if they get even a modest improvement from the starting rotation and replace Covey with a mid-rotation quality starting pitcher.

[Balta1701]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Now add Harper to that lineup as well and the team could make a legitimate run at the Indians for the division if they get even a modest improvement from the starting rotation and replace Covey with a mid-rotation quality starting pitcher.

Are you up for a 5 year deal for Keuchel? Because aside from him, we'd have to go onto the trade market or hope that someone improves on their performance from last year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Are you up for a 5 year deal for Keuchel? Because aside from him, we'd have to go onto the trade market or hope that someone improves on their performance from last year.

If you sign Machado and Harper, I'd make a trade for a young, cost controlled starter. I mentioned a guy like Luis Castillo in another thread, though he's likely not available with the Reds trying to compete in 2019. There are other guys like him that may be available on teams that are just starting to rebuild or a few years out still.

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Who is left and what are you willing to pay for them? I'm ok with adding a guy like Pomeranz, but I'll bet there's a decent chance of Covey outpitching him. Gio could be reasonable  but I'll still expect a multi year deal with him, which means he's not a bridge guy. Right now, James Shields looks to have been in the top 5 of starting pitchers remaining.

 

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you up for a 5 year deal for Keuchel? Because aside from him, we'd have to go onto the trade market or hope that someone improves on their performance from last year.

Yeah it's easier said than done for sure. I don't know where the upgrade from free agency comes in to play because it's pretty awful right now in free agency (I don't want Dallas Keuchel at all on a 4+ year deal).

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

31 minutes ago, fathom said:

FWIW, WSD said he got a text last week that said Sox are very, very confident they’ll get one of the big 2.  This was on red line radio podcast 

I've been speculating about other possible moves but realistically the pending move could just be Machado signing with us. The 2 weeks ago timeline  fits with right before the Machado visit and the possibility of it coming together quickly falls in line with Machado saying "after the new year".

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I have no idea what they would cost in a trade or if they would even be available but some other guys comparable to Castillo that I like are Marco Gonzales, Jose Urena, Dylan Bundy, and Joe Musgrove. Could build a larger package without expending any of the system's top 5 prospects for those guys.

[elrockinMT]

5 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

You watch, the big news will be the signing and reuniting of the Chicago White Sox and Derek Holland. ?

I think you might be on the right track but I was leaning towards Big Game James  coming back on an incentive laden contract 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Here’s a random theory totally out of leftfield. What if the Sox are a 3rd team in potential trade talks between the Indians and Padres for Kluber? Could that even work? Would the Padres have something expendable and cost controlled the Sox would want? I don’t think the Sox would want to give a prospect to the Indians, but they did just complete the Alonso trade.

 

Edit: I’m not saying the Sox would get Kluber, just act as the third team to help conplete the deal.

Edited December 26, 2018 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I like the Dylan Bundy idea. Former #4 overall pick with good stuff and 3 years of control left. He didn't have a good season at all last year so I wonder what it would take to get him knowing that the Orioles are still at the beginning of their rebuild and looking to accumulate prospects. He's worth a shot if the price isn't too high.  

Edited December 26, 2018 by Whitesox27

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Who is left and what are you willing to pay for them? I'm ok with adding a guy like Pomeranz, but I'll bet there's a decent chance of Covey outpitching him. Gio could be reasonable  but I'll still expect a multi year deal with him, which means he's not a bridge guy. Right now, James Shields looks to have been in the top 5 of starting pitchers remaining.

I just don't see Gio as an legitimate option. Fiers is the same age (33) was much better last year than Gio and he resigned with Oakland for 2 yrs $15M Maybe that was the plan all along and Fiers didn't get any better offers . Could've just signed Fiers. 2 years would've been a perfect length of time for a bridge starter. We still need a 1 or 2 starting pitcher and that could come in next years FA class, I'd love Machado but adding Harper and having 2 mega contracts is going to hurt at some point especially if neither opt out. Still need room for arb. years for the young guys who do stick around and the payroll space to add a TOR starter next year,

Will also need a bridge OF in the 2-3 year range which is why I mentioned a Starling Marte trade, His contract fits perfectly and he plays CF.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

I like the Dylan Bundy idea. Former #4 overall pick with stuff and 3 years of control left. He didn't have a good season at all last year so I wonder what it would take to get him knowing that the Orioles are still at the beginning of their rebuild and looking to accumulate prospects. He's worth a shot if the price isn't too high.  

I think he's likely to stay based on the reasons you listed. Former top pick, multiple years of control, didn't have a good year (low value), beginning of the rebuild, space in the rotation, etc. Those are the type of guys rebuilding teams gamble on. Now if he was on a good team and the team was trying to improve over him, that's when you would be able to get him.

Edited December 26, 2018 by soxfan2014

[bighurt574]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Who is left and what are you willing to pay for them? I'm ok with adding a guy like Pomeranz, but I'll bet there's a decent chance of Covey outpitching him. Gio could be reasonable  but I'll still expect a multi year deal with him, which means he's not a bridge guy. Right now, James Shields looks to have been in the top 5 of starting pitchers remaining.

 

Yeah, there may not be much left at that point, though they could also try to find another Nova on the trade market.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I have no idea what they would cost in a trade or if they would even be available but some other guys comparable to Castillo that I like are Marco Gonzales, Jose Urena, Dylan Bundy, and Joe Musgrove. Could build a larger package without expending any of the system's top 5 prospects for those guys.

Trading anyone in our top 15 prospects is not advisable. I like having so many OF's in the system who are considered good right now. It increases the odds that  1 or 2 become above average players. Just think how good our system would be if we hadn't traded Tatis, Jr.

None yet among Fulmer, Giolito Lopez Moncada even Rodon after 5 years can be called good yet. Hopefully Jimenez starts the ball rolling on some of our draft picks and youngsters we traded for being quality pieces for the future. Trading the wrong one would suck. Lets get them to  AAA ,see where the team is at and go from there.

If we can accomplish any trade giving up Palka ,Delmonico, Nate Jones, maybe a young BP arm like (Vieira, Banuelos, Mederois, Clarkin), Cordell Engel Tilson Leury Garcia or Yolmer Sanchez hey go for it but please do not trade any prospects,

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I think he's likely to stay based on the reasons you listed. Former top pick, multiple years of control, didn't have a good year (low value), beginning of the rebuild, etc. Those are the type of guys rebuilding teams gamble on.

That would be like us trading Giolito now and Bundy was better and K's slightly more than 1/inning.