Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[Roughneck]

Just now, QuickJones81 said:

Machado could be on the flight.  I’m cheap and never fly anything but economy yet have been on flights with Joe Torre and Jim Thome in the past.  Athletes don’t all cruise around in private jets.

You are correct that not all athletes fly first class or private planes. But for something like signing a contract for around $300 million, the team is sending him a charter without even being asked.

[iamshack]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So factoring in JUST mathematics  you are talking about 6.25%, and that is only if you assign equal 25% odds to each team, and not believe that NYY has higher odds with Machado, and that Harper has higher odds with LAD, Cubs, or Nats.

At 6% we are talking 1 in 16 odds, meaning 15 out of 16 failures.  Is the difference between 1 and 6% significant enough to really quibble over the odds not being very low?  I'd say if I told you that 15 times out of 16 you would fail at something, the odds were very small of it happening.

Again that doesn't factor in that the first signing will probably be big enough to make the second large contract not worth it to the team payrolls of the future, or that the teams who miss out will run up the bidding past a Sox comfort point even if we signed the first one.

If I told you there was a 6% chance the White Sox would sign Harper AND Machado 6 months ago, would you have believed me?

To your other point, I actually put the White Sox as favorites to land each player individually. That likely drives the odds above 6%. 

[QuickJones81]

6 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

You are correct that not all athletes fly first class or private planes. But for something like signing a contract for around $300 million, the team is sending him a charter without even being asked.

Or, he could simply be on a flight to Chicago that isn’t for signing a contract.  Which would mean it’s palusible to see him on a normal flight with normal people.

Edited January 4, 2019 by QuickJones81

[ron883]

49 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't make wagers with frauds.  Please stop proposing wagers.  

I've already got one going with another forum member. The mods are aware of it. Quit degrading the forum with fake news please.

[reiks12]

Are we really giving that tweet any thought? Really?

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, iamshack said:

If I told you there was a 6% chance the White Sox would sign Harper AND Machado 6 months ago, would you have believed me?

To your other point, I actually put the White Sox as favorites to land each player individually. That likely drives the odds above 6%. 

Not sure you can consider the Sox favorites for either player. New York and LA are flat out more appealing free agent destinations short of us offering a big pile of money (Big pile of money strategy usually wins). 

 

Just now, reiks12 said:

Are we really giving that tweet any thought? Really?

I wouldn't 

[Roughneck]

3 minutes ago, QuickJones81 said:

Or, he could simply be on a flight to Chicago that isn’t for signing a contract.  Which would means it’s palusible to be him on a normal flight with normal people.

Sure. Chicago is lovely in January.

2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Are we really giving that tweet any thought? Really?

No, we're mostly mocking it.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, Roughneck said:

Sure. Chicago is lovely in January.

No, we're mostly mocking it.

It's actually nice out. Supposed to be around 50 tomorrow. If Manny was coming in January, and weather was important, now would be the time to come.

[thxfrthmmrs]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It's simply looking at the batted ball profile / Statcast info (exit velocity & launch angle) from a given season and seeing if those balls would have likely been HRs at other parks.  And the impact was pretty significant and not in a good direction for the Yankees.

There is a stat on baseballsavant called xwOBA. This measures the player's expected wOBA based on the quality of his contact - hard hit balls and launch angles. You can also sort by wOBA-xwOBA and it tells you whether the player was lucky or unlucky based on his results that season.

[iamshack]

7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Not sure you can consider the Sox favorites for either player. New York and LA are flat out more appealing free agent destinations short of us offering a big pile of money (Big pile of money strategy usually wins). 

So you’re saying...?

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

I've already got one going with another forum member. The mods are aware of it. Quit degrading the forum with fake news please.

You've got one going, that you've yet to win/lose, and you're using that as evidence that you follow through with your bets? Despite the fact that you've already agreed to multiple ban bets, lost, and then continued to post, and continue to propose further bets.

Yet I am the one degrading with fake news? lol. Got it. Go talk to your "source" again.  

[Roughneck]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It's actually nice out. Supposed to be around 50 tomorrow. If Manny was coming in January, and weather was important, now would be the time to come.

Yeah, I know. I live here. Just in general, unless he was coming to watch the Bears game, there isn't much to do this time of year that he hasn't done in town during the season or when the Sox showed him around.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, iamshack said:

If I told you there was a 6% chance the White Sox would sign Harper AND Machado 6 months ago, would you have believed me?

To your other point, I actually put the White Sox as favorites to land each player individually. That likely drives the odds above 6%. 

I mean I obviously hope I am wrong and all because there would be no better way to jump start a rebuild than with two superstars, but I think people are being WAY too optimistic for something that would be contracts valued at something like half of the entire franchise value.  I can see being optimistic on one of them.  But both?  That is too rich for my blood.

[iamshack]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean I obviously hope I am wrong and all because there would be no better way to jump start a rebuild than with two superstars, but I think people are being WAY too optimistic for something that would be contracts valued at something like half of the entire franchise value.  I can see being optimistic on one of them.  But both?  That is too rich for my blood.

Yeah, I still think it would be a long shot. And that is indeed a LOT of money. Franchise value would see significant gains by signing both players, including increases in revenues as well as relevance. 

[Chicago White Sox]

One thing that supports signing both whales is if the players demand a bigger share of the revenue pie in the next CBA (which they should), then it's possible that we see a higher luxury tax threshold along with a salary floor.  These in tandem would result in increased spending across the league and potentially make these contracts more team friendly in the long-run.

Having said all that, even if you sign both of them, the odds are at least one of them opts-out the first chance they get.  I think adding both of them is possible while most our core is still young & cheap.

[Chi Town Sox]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

Either way I’m pretty sure he only travels via private jet

I ran into Ken Griffey Jr. at Orlando Airport last year and he was waiting in TSA line at the United Terminal.

Not every rich person flies private jets every time they travel, most wouldn't be rich any longer.

[ron883]

23 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You've got one going, that you've yet to win/lose, and you're using that as evidence that you follow through with your bets? Despite the fact that you've already agreed to multiple ban bets, lost, and then continued to post, and continue to propose further bets.

Yet I am the one degrading with fake news? lol. Got it. Go talk to your "source" again.  

Lol, multiple false statements in here. If I lost any I would be suspended. The mods are aware of it, aka they will honor the bet. This is light hearted stuff man. I'm not sure why you're getting so upset about it. 

 

[Eminor3rd]

I don’t think there’s any chance the White Sox are willing to pay up for both of these guys, and to be honest, I’m not even sure it would make sense to. Assuming they are going to stay near the middle/upper middle of the pack at peak payroll years. 

[Whisox05]

So did anyone submit some questions for Danny boy lol

[The Sir]

10 minutes ago, Chi Town Sox said:

Not every rich person flies private jets every time they travel, most wouldn't be rich any longer.

Maybe not the "low end rich", but Ken Griffey made $150 million in his career, just off contracts. 

You can get yourself a jet of your own for a million. The pilot costs a bit, and maybe this isn't Ken's thing, but rich me would have like three jets and five yachts, and I'd be the only crew for all of them.

[Princess Dye]

The way i handle this is:

-Private jet for when i'm touring teams with family in tow

-First class for the follow-up visit to sign my contract.

 

That is my own personal practice, mind you.

[Sleepy Harold]

15 minutes ago, Chi Town Sox said:

I ran into Ken Griffey Jr. at Orlando Airport last year and he was waiting in TSA line at the United Terminal.

Not every rich person flies private jets every time they travel, most wouldn't be rich any longer.

I met Danny DeVito in the Kansas City airport while he was checking in for his Southwest flight...sometimes you gotta ball on a budget.

[Chi Town Sox]

1 minute ago, The Sir said:

Maybe not the "low end rich", but Ken Griffey made $150 million in his career, just off contracts. 

You can get yourself a jet of your own for a million. The pilot costs a bit, and maybe this isn't Ken's thing, but rich me would have like three jets and five yachts, and I'd be the only crew for all of them.

And then potentially million's in maintenance, hangar fees, gasoline, insurance etc.  Jets aren't just a $1m plane and a $200k pilot, it could be $4M a year to own. 

[Chi Town Sox]

5 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

I met Danny DeVito in the Kansas City airport while he was checking in for his Southwest flight...sometimes you gotta ball on a budget.

I was on a Southwest flight from Midway to Philly with Andre Iguodala before, you are correct.

[iamshack]

2 minutes ago, Chi Town Sox said:

I was on a Southwest flight from Midway to Philly with Andre Iguodala before, you are correct.

Ok guys, not saying rich people don’t fly Southwest.

Just saying Manny Machado isn’t flying commercial to Chicago right now. If it was for any reason we want it to be, the Sox simply wouldn’t allow it to happen.