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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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Just now, iamshack said:

The Yankees part is solid

Yeah I should of clarified, much more skeptical of the Phillies part than the Yankees part.  Two years is a long time to wait on Mike Trout.  And I doubt the Phillies would be scheduling an in person with Bryce if they weren’t mostly serious about a legit pursuit.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah I should of clarified, much more skeptical of the Phillies part than the Yankees part.  Two years is a long time to wait on Mike Trout.  And I doubt the Phillies would be scheduling an in person with Bryce if they weren’t mostly serious about a legit pursuit.

I don't think Harper wants go to Phillies face the nats they have overpay way more then us.

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13 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

I don't believe for a second that 7/200 is all it's gonna take to sign him.

 

Unless it includes opt outs that other teams aren't willing to offer, or not offer as soon. Fangraphs at some point did an article assigning dollar value to opt outs. I'm sure it's case by case basis, but it's possible 7 yrs/$200M with opt outs after 3rd and 4th year is more valuable than a 7 yr/$230M deal with only one opt out after a 5th year. 

And even if two teams offer different deals in terms of length and money, but have the same opt out year, one team could stack the AAV very high before the 1st opt out, and you would assume the player would believe in themselves enough to think that they would take that 1st opt out available, you might be talking 3 yrs/$100M from one team, or 3 yrs/$140M from another team, despite the first team offering a total of 10 years and the other team offering a total of 7 years. 

It's nuances like that which are hard to flat out say deal A is better than deal B.

Edited by ChiliIrishHammock24
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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah I should of clarified, much more skeptical of the Phillies part than the Yankees part.  Two years is a long time to wait on Mike Trout.  And I doubt the Phillies would be scheduling an in person with Bryce if they weren’t mostly serious about a legit pursuit.

Yeah, I have no idea what the Phillies are up to.

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1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Unless it includes opt outs that other teams aren't willing to offer, or not offer as soon. Fangraphs at some point did an article assigning dollar value to opt outs. I'm sure it's case by case basis, but it's possible 7 yrs/$200M with opt outs after 3rd and 4th year is more valuable than a 7 yr/$230M deal with only one opt out after a 5th year. 

And even if two teams offer different deals in terms of length and money, but have the same opt out year, one team could stack the AAV very high before the 1st opt out, and you would assume the player would believe in themselves enough to think that they would take that 1st opt out available, you might be talking 3 yrs/$100M from one team, or 3 yrs/$140M from another team, despite one team offering a total of 7 years and the other team offering a total of 10 years. 

It's nuances like that which are hard to flat out say deal A is better than deal B.

I don't think Machado will accept any offer not at $300M.

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4 minutes ago, peavy44 said:

I don't think Machado will accept any offer not at $300M.

If the market is only giving 200 why would anyone go 100 million more? If you can land him anywhere is the 225-250 range I personally think the Sox make out in the deal and have more money to play with for other free agents maybe making the Harper chase a little bit more interesting 

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3 minutes ago, beckham15 said:

If the market is only giving 200 why would anyone go 100 million more? If you can land him anywhere is the 225-250 range I personally think the Sox make out in the deal and have more money to play with for other free agents maybe making the Harper chase a little bit more interesting 

Well then Machado won't sign till he gets his deal.

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28 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

I don't buy 7/200 as the number.  Bob said closer to 200 than 300, doesn't mean it wasn't 240 or 245.  

Yep, Nightengale said closer to 200 than 300, not 200 on the head.   I assume the offer is between 7/217 & 7/245,  which would be $31M - $35M AAV.   Also, we don’t know if there is a mutual option for years 8 and 9.  

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6 minutes ago, Bubba P5 said:

Yep, Nightengale said closer to 200 than 300, not 200 on the head.   I assume the offer is between 7/217 & 7/245,  which would be $31M - $35M AAV.   Also, we don’t know if there is a mutual option for years 8 and 9.  

Doubt there is a mutual option. Those are pointless. Maybe player options. Also, wasn't it reported they are willing to go over 10 the same day it was reported they are only willing to go 7? What's true?

Edited by soxfan2014
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4 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

They very rarely get picked up by both sides.

I was thinking of JR and that is why I said “mutual option”.  Not sure JR would agree to an option decided solely by a player.   But I have been wrong more than being right.  You are right that it is rare that mutual options get picked up by both side; thus, they are mostly useless and don’t add any real value to an offer.  

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19 minutes ago, Bubba P5 said:

Yep, Nightengale said closer to 200 than 300, not 200 on the head.   I assume the offer is between 7/217 & 7/245,  which would be $31M - $35M AAV.   Also, we don’t know if there is a mutual option for years 8 and 9.  

Never trust bob nightengale.

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