Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[bschmaranz]

7 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:

I saw someone on twitter say that Kevin Millar said that he believes Manny will sign with the white sox. He has said this continually the last couple of weeks..it's pure speculation, but definitely interesting

Millar has been saying Philly, his cohost Chris Rose is the one that's been saying White Sox.  So definitely interesting if he's changed.

 

EDIT Just saw it was already addressed.  Whoops

Edited January 11, 2019 by bschmaranz

[GreatScott82]

Happy Dan Clark day everyone! 

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Fuagman said:

I'm not sure where you guys are getting these luxury tax numbers (50%, 95%). 95% are you kidding me?...

The rule is 20% ON ALL OVERAGES for first time offenders. 30% for second time offenders (consecutive years), 50% for third time offenders (consecutive years). It resets to first time if they are under the year prior.  So no, that is not true at all that Bryce will cost them $50+ mil.

You're missing substantial fractions of the rule. 

Quote

Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

The Nats paid the tax last year, so at minimum they would be paying 30%. They're right up against the tax right now, so if the Nats signed harper to 10/$326, they'd be about $30 million over, and their total cost for Harper next year would be over $40 million counting the payroll and a $10 million tax fee, and that's assuming they add no one else.

They would also be within striking distance of being $40 million over, and if they signed harper to a $400 million deal that might well push them into the higher tier, making a 1 year cost go above $50 million.

And for good measure
 

Quote

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

[Roughneck]

1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

I don't think it's a bluff.  You're not foreclosing the opportunity to increase your offer in the future, you're just reminding Lozano that if Harper and the Phillies make real progress tomorrow (not even necessarily a signed deal), that he may have no choice but to accept the Sox current offer.

The incentive for the Sox to get this done today if they can is enormous IMO.  If the Phillies come out of the meeting with Harper tomorrow not particularly confident in their chances of getting him, they are going to turn all their focus back to Machado and potentially start aggressively increasing their offer.  I don't know if the Sox will be able to compete with them on a financial basis if they decide to go all in on Manny.

But then you're being unnecessarily combative and risking pissing them off. They'd have no choice but to accept the Sox current offer? Then there is no risk to them. They could go back to the Sox in a week and take it if they aren't able to rope other teams in. Or maybe you piss him off to the point where he wants to take a short-term deal elsewhere just because he doesn't want to play for the Sox. No use calling it "take it or leave it" when you're acknowledging that's not the case and you'll still negotiate with him later if he wants.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I saw him yesterday, he said Phillies. His partner Chris said White Sox.

This is correct. Millar reasoned the Phillies are a better team, while Rose said the Sox division essentially sucks for the foreseeable future.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Fuagman said:

I'm not sure where you guys are getting these luxury tax numbers (50%, 95%). 95% are you kidding me?...

The rule is 20% ON ALL OVERAGES for first time offenders. 30% for second time offenders (consecutive years), 50% for third time offenders (consecutive years). It resets to first time if they are under the year prior.  So no, that is not true at all that Bryce will cost them $50+ mil.

The Nats will be in their 3rd year of overage if they go over this year, so they absolutely would be hit in the $50 million dollar range for Harper if they are indeed significantly over $300 million for an offer to him.

[Perfect Vision]

5 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

But then you're being unnecessarily combative and risking pissing them off. They'd have no choice but to accept the Sox current offer? Then there is no risk to them. They could go back to the Sox in a week and take it if they aren't able to rope other teams in. Or maybe you piss him off to the point where he wants to take a short-term deal elsewhere just because he doesn't want to play for the Sox. No use calling it "take it or leave it" when you're acknowledging that's not the case and you'll still negotiate with him later if he wants.

I don't think it's being combative.  It's also not a "take it or leave it."  You're offering a carrot -- an additional year and $35 mil more -- if they agree today.  The risk to them is that they possibly don't get that additional year and money if it's trending towards a Harper deal with the Phillies because the current Sox offer won't be beat.  I wouldn't approach this in an adversarial way.  I'd try to communicate that we want to come to an agreement today.  JR has authorized the money.  But if the market dries up, JR might not authorize more money later.

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Nats will be in their 3rd year of overage if they go over this year, so they absolutely would be hit in the $50 million dollar range for Harper if they are indeed significantly over $300 million for an offer to him.

Nationals challenge is that they are already over $200 million in lux tax payroll right now. Signing Harper would likely mean they lose Rendon next year.

[mqr]

Just now, steveno89 said:

Nationals challenge is that they are already over $200 million in lux tax payroll right now. Signing Harper would likely mean they lose Rendon next year.

They'd be approaching 300 mil with harper and rendon. No chance they sign both of them. 

[caulfield12]

Adding all those pieces just to court Machado...after possibly giving him SS...would seem to preclude them going into a take it or leave it negotiating stance with Lozano this weekend.

[steveno89]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Adding all those pieces just to court Machado...after possibly giving him SS...would seem to preclude them going into a take it or leave it negotiating stance with Lozano this weekend.

F*ck, how freaking nice would it be to go into this weekend having signed Machado? I can taste those beers already #108ing

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I don't think it's being combative.  It's also not a "take it or leave it."  You're offering a carrot -- an additional year and $35 mil more -- if they agree today.  The risk to them is that they possibly don't get that additional year and money if it's trending towards a Harper deal with the Phillies because the current Sox offer won't be beat.  I wouldn't approach this in an adversarial way.  I'd try to communicate that we want to come to an agreement today.  JR has authorized the money.  But if the market dries up, JR might not authorize more money later.

If the White Sox are willing to make that offer today, then even if the White Sox say they are walking away, if Manny Machado's side comes back next week and says they'll accept that offer they have every reason to believe the White Sox would say yes. The threat to walk away simply isn't credible from the position the White Sox are in. They're not going to turn down Machado under almost any circumstance. The only true deadline for this franchise is the start of spring training, and agents know that. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Nationals challenge is that they are already over $200 million in lux tax payroll right now. Signing Harper would likely mean they lose Rendon next year.

Rendon is so quirky he might retire.  If you polled that fan base to choose one long-term, pretty easy to imagine it would be 90% for Harper and only 10% for Rendon.

[Vote4Pedro]

Good ol Chuck Garfien getting in on the Dan Clark roasting with his tweet I see 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/1083820340835483650

 

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The only true deadline for this franchise is the start of spring training, and agents know that. 

I doubt that's even a deadline

[caulfield12]

Yep, the Phillies are the only team who have to think about really finalizing with Harper or Machado in the next 48-72 hours.

If they don’t get either, they’re going to have to make a quick course correction with guys like Pollock or Moustakas in order to compete this year.

Their pitching depth is still iffy after the top 3, and their three best hitters are Hoskins, Segura and an aging McCutcheon.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Yep, the Phillies are the only team who have to think about really finalizing with Harper or Machado in the next 48-72 hours.

If they don’t get either, they’re going to have to make a quick course correction with guys like Pollock or Moustakas in order to compete this year.

Their pitching depth is still iffy after the top 3, and their three best hitters are Hoskins, Segura and an aging McCutcheon.

Why 48-72 hours? Those guys will still be there a week, even 2, from now if these guys don't sign until then.

Edited January 11, 2019 by soxfan2014

[EloyJenkins]

19 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

But then you're being unnecessarily combative and risking pissing them off. They'd have no choice but to accept the Sox current offer? Then there is no risk to them. They could go back to the Sox in a week and take it if they aren't able to rope other teams in. Or maybe you piss him off to the point where he wants to take a short-term deal elsewhere just because he doesn't want to play for the Sox. No use calling it "take it or leave it" when you're acknowledging that's not the case and you'll still negotiate with him later if he wants.

I never meant "take it or leave it"...I meant we are sweeting the pot for this exclusive period...The agent has probably already provided a similar time frame to the teams as well, so this is just amping up the stakes a bit more to get his client a sweetener. 

[Roughneck]

7 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I don't think it's being combative.  It's also not a "take it or leave it."  You're offering a carrot -- an additional year and $35 mil more -- if they agree today.  The risk to them is that they possibly don't get that additional year and money if it's trending towards a Harper deal with the Phillies because the current Sox offer won't be beat.  I wouldn't approach this in an adversarial way.  I'd try to communicate that we want to come to an agreement today.  JR has authorized the money.  But if the market dries up, JR might not authorize more money later.

Machado knows that the extra special 24 hour deal will still be on the table in a month if he is unsigned. The Sox aren't spending that money elsewhere. JR isn't going to de-authorize that money at 5pm tomorrow. Lozano would laugh at using that language. No upside to making such an offer, and only potential downside. This only works if the Sox are a potential playoff teams saying "We are either signing you or instead giving big contracts to these 2 guys, leaving no money. If you don't sign with us by tomorrow, we go in the other direction." Right now, there is no other direction for the Sox.

[Saufley]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yep, the Phillies are the only team who have to think about really finalizing with Harper or Machado in the next 48-72 hours.

If they don’t get either, they’re going to have to make a quick course correction with guys like Pollock or Moustakas in order to compete this year.

Their pitching depth is still iffy after the top 3, and their three best hitters are Hoskins, Segura and an aging McCutcheon.

Sorry, but did I miss something? The Phillies need to finalize offers in the next 48-72 hours. Why?

[hi8is]

Hahaha - this made me laugh:

”Manny: Dan Clark's Twitter has fallen, Sox and Phillies remain”

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Why 48-72 hours? Those guys will still be there a week, even 2, from now if these guys don't sign until then.

Because then you give the Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Padres and other teams more time and options to make a run at Harper...if Machado’s really leaning White Sox, that’s a dangerous position to be in, taking a huge risk you’re not going to end up with either guy.  

Hard for the ownership group to live that one down with the fan base chomping at the bit for TWO.

[Perfect Vision]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If the White Sox are willing to make that offer today, then even if the White Sox say they are walking away, if Manny Machado's side comes back next week and says they'll accept that offer they have every reason to believe the White Sox would say yes. The threat to walk away simply isn't credible from the position the White Sox are in. They're not going to turn down Machado under almost any circumstance. The only true deadline for this franchise is the start of spring training, and agents know that. 

Then what risk is there to the Sox?  That they sign Manny next week to the same deal they are willing to sign him for today?  Reports are that a Machado decision is expected very soon (yes, grain of salt).  I'd prefer to see the Sox go for it now, then to take an attitude of seeing "how things play out."  And there has to be some level of concern/doubt right now in Manny's camp that they'll lose any leverage they have if the Phillies reach an agreement with Harper this weekend.

[he gone.]

24 minutes ago, GreatScott82 said:

Happy Dan Clark day everyone! 

You may have to change your signature up a bit...some of those names won't even sniff the MLB roster ha.

It's finally happening! Welcome Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Reynaldo Lopez, Luis Basabe, Dane Dunning, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose, Bryant Fleet, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo, Ti'Quan Forbes, AJ Pucket, Andre Davis, Casey Gillepsie, Ryan Cordell, Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington(More additions to come)

[G&T]

4 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I never meant "take it or leave it"...I meant we are sweeting the pot for this exclusive period...The agent has probably already provided a similar time frame to the teams as well, so this is just amping up the stakes a bit more to get his client a sweetener. 

Once you put something on the table, it doesn't come off.