Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[mqr]

I'm getting quite a bit of schadenfreude  from Phillies fans being crushed by fake reports. It's nice to know your not alone.

[Jake]

1 hour ago, cjgalloway said:

The better player has always been Machado (apart from one year).  Harper just gives you more marketability (which is also valuable)

 

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Ehh.  Manny provides two-way value.  Bryce has a little more offensive upside and more marketability, but he's a bad OF at 26.  He's a DH or 1B within a few years.  Manny is definitely going to be the more valuable player over the course of the contract.   

It shouldn't be understated how much Harper has been the superior hitter. Harper has a career .900 OPS while Manny has just a single season that high playing his entire career in a hitters park. By wRC+, Harper has been about 17% more productive than Machado over their careers. And the raw hitting talent clearly favors Harper, which shows in his multiple 1.000 OPS seasons.

As far as Harper's defense is concerned, he's obviously not generating a ton of value with his glove. But to say unequivocally that he's a bad defensive outfielder is very questionable. His defensive metrics *this past season* were very bad. Prior to this season, quite good! Had consistently been an above average defender in RF. There are some reasons to believe that his poor year defensively may have been driven by something besides his actual talent as some folks have documented a number of plays where he seemingly let up rather than go hard. I don't know if that's injury, an unseemly method of injury prevention, or what, but don't be shocked if Harper goes right back to the average to above average defensive numbers he has long had.

My point isn't that Harper is clearly better/going to be better — there's a reason I said it wasn't clear who would be more valuable — but the comparison of these two players isn't "Harper slightly better hitter but Machado is defensive wizard and Harper is basically a DH." Harper has a history of being a solid defensive player and being by far the better hitter. When you start pricing in the risk, you start by acknowledging that any player that you're giving an 8-10 year deal to may lose so much mobility from age or injury that he becomes a 1B or DH. Harper would give much more confidence in terms of providing a bat that's definitely going to play at any position. Both players may get better with the bat, of course, but we've seen just how scary good Harper can be even at younger ages.

[ChiSox59]

22 minutes ago, mqr said:

 

Thanks for sharing this.  I kind of figured this was the case. 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Jake said:

As far as Harper's defense is concerned, he's obviously not generating a ton of value with his glove. But to say unequivocally that he's a bad defensive outfielder is very questionable. His defensive metrics *this past season* were very bad. Prior to this season, quite good! Had consistently been an above average defender in RF. There are some reasons to believe that his poor year defensively may have been driven by something besides his actual talent as some folks have documented a number of plays where he seemingly let up rather than go hard. I don't know if that's injury, an unseemly method of injury prevention, or what, but don't be shocked if Harper goes right back to the average to above average defensive numbers he has long had.

Don't forget that the Nats put Harper in CF for 1/3 of their games last year.

[KrankinSox]

I'm pretty much at the point where rumors of sportsbooks taking props down, video games tweeting cryptic stuff, or Machado instagram posts are so far beyond the point of getting worked up about. Until Passan, Heyman, or Rosenthal tweet out that "Machado/Harper are nearing a deal....structure is expected to be X years blah blah" then I can't find the energy to care anymore. There's been too much BS going on for close to 3 months now. 

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

I'm pretty much at the point where rumors of sportsbooks taking props down, video games tweeting cryptic stuff, or Machado instagram posts are so far beyond the point of getting worked up about. Until Passan, Heyman, or Rosenthal tweet out that "Machado/Harper are nearing a deal....structure is expected to be X years blah blah" then I can't find the energy to care anymore. There's been too much BS going on for close to 3 months now. 

If we can't take a guy that touts being incarcerated at his word, then who can we?!

Edited January 29, 2019 by mqr

[BlackSox13]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

If we can't take a guy that touts being incarcerated at his word, then who can we?!

Are you saying criminals don't have the right to tweet from prison? Fascist! 

Sorry. Don't know where that outburst came from. I'm bored.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I don't know, I always thought if you had a team that lost 100 games, trying to improve would be implied, not praised. Everyone gets a trophy.

This is not true in the age of fans accepting a rebuild. The Astros went through multiple 100 loss seasons before they tried to improve. They allowed the kids to slowly come to the MLB, then add the pieces to improve.

Edited January 29, 2019 by ptatc

[EL1]

1 hour ago, Orlando said:

 

 

The only reason it might be bad for the White Sox is from a leverage standpoint. The White Sox should be using Bryce to get Manny to sign. Show more interest in the guy try and bring him in for a tour of the stadium. 

[ChiSox59]

If Bryce signs before MM (he won't), MM is pretty much out of options.  

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

I feel like Machado might friendzone the White Sox.

[Eminor3rd]

The only “leverage” the White Sox have is their ability to be the highest bidder. And in the current CBA, that is nothing to take lightly. 

But there are no hardline negotiation tricks the White Sox can pull that are going to change how this thing turns out. Everyone involved knows the score.

Just follow the facts and logic. 

1. The White Sox are in NO hurry. They have publicly expressed it, and everyone knew it anyway. They are on the up in a rebuild no matter who they sign this year. They do not expect to win in 2019, and therefore there is no reason they would ever put a hard deadline on an offer. Unlike contenders, the do not need to pivot. Any suggestion that their offer is limited or coming off the table would correctly be perceived as insubstantive, impatient bluster. 

2. The White Sox have elected to give a “reasonable*” bid and have refused to move off of it until they are outbid. This is a rational course of action, even though it may frustrate Machado’s camp. Their current bid does not imply that they are not willing to go higher if necessary. Reported Mystery teams that are now interested because “the bidding is lower than expected” serve as no threat, so long as the White Sox are actually willing to win bidding up to a somewhat reasonable point. By definition, these mystery teams were not interested in the expected winning bid levels, and so the most they can do is force to White Sox to increase their bid — something they should have been willing to do from the start. 

3. There is no reason for either Harper or Machado to expect that the others contract “precedent” will affect their own. This is basic economics. Whoever signs the first one will win the bidding by offering the highest amount of money that anyone was willing to offer. Therefore, there will by definition be no one left on the market that was willing to pay that amount. When you remove an asset from the market, you also remove a bidder. Each team values each asset based on their internal resources and needs, which are varied and myriad. They will not pay above the number, regardless of what other teams pay for other assets. 

4. If there’s any reason for either player to worry about the other’s contract, it’s the fact that a signing effectively removes a bidder from the process.

I said this a few weeks ago when the media was talking about things “getting wrapped up soon” and it remains true today: I don’t see any reason for this not to keep dragging out. Lozano knows the White Sox offer isn’t what he wants, but he also knows it isn’t going anywhere. There is no reason for him not to continue to try to find better offers all the way the wire. This remains true even if the White Sox DID decide to “bid against themselves” and increase their offer.

The White Sox are still well positioned to get one of these guys, but there isn’t anything they can do to rush the process. 

 

[bmags]

Sit down before you read this, but I believe both Manny and Harper are very good.

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Sit down before you read this, but I believe both Manny and Harper are very good.

Insider speak right here

[BFirebird]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The only “leverage” the White Sox have is their ability to be the highest bidder. And in the current CBA, that is nothing to take lightly. 

But there are no hardline negotiation tricks the White Sox can pull that are going to change how this thing turns out. Everyone involved knows the score.

Just follow the facts and logic. 

1. The White Sox are in NO hurry. They have publicly expressed it, and everyone knew it anyway. They are on the up in a rebuild no matter who they sign this year. They do not expect to win in 2019, and therefore there is no reason they would ever put a hard deadline on an offer. Unlike contenders, the do not need to pivot. Any suggestion that their offer is limited or coming off the table would correctly be perceived as insubstantive, impatient bluster. 

2. The White Sox have elected to give a “reasonable*” bid and have refused to move off of it until they are outbid. This is a rational course of action, even though it may frustrate Machado’s camp. Their current bid does not imply that they are not willing to go higher if necessary. Reported Mystery teams that are now interested because “the bidding is lower than expected” serve as no threat, so long as the White Sox are actually willing to win bidding up to a somewhat reasonable point. By definition, these mystery teams were not interested in the expected winning bid levels, and so the most they can do is force to White Sox to increase their bid — something they should have been willing to do from the start. 

3. There is no reason for either Harper or Machado to expect that the others contract “precedent” will affect their own. This is basic economics. Whoever signs the first one will win the bidding by offering the highest amount of money that anyone was willing to offer. Therefore, there will by definition be no one left on the market that was willing to pay that amount. When you remove an asset from the market, you also remove a bidder. Each team values each asset based on their internal resources and needs, which are varied and myriad. They will not pay above the number, regardless of what other teams pay for other assets. 

4. If there’s any reason for either player to worry about the other’s contract, it’s the fact that a signing effectively removes a bidder from the process.

I said this a few weeks ago when the media was talking about things “getting wrapped up soon” and it remains true today: I don’t see any reason for this not to keep dragging out. Lozano knows the White Sox offer isn’t what he wants, but he also knows it isn’t going anywhere. There is no reason for him not to continue to try to find better offers all the way the wire. This remains true even if the White Sox DID decide to “bid against themselves” and increase their offer.

The White Sox are still well positioned to get one of these guys, but there isn’t anything they can do to rush the process. 

 

Very well said.  You expressed my view of the situation better than I could ever say it!

[hi8is]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Insider speak right here

These baseball players will play baseball.

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, hi8is said:

These baseball players will play baseball.

And do good.  Real good

[raBBit]

15 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Well let’s give one of them an opportunity to explain...

@raBBit, do you think you were fed misinformation about something happening at SoxFest, or do you think something was expected to happen and it just never materialized?

EDIT: I should clarify that I’m not sure if you ever said something would get announced at SoxFest, but on Thursday night, you did imply that something was done and your guess was that it would get announced Friday morning. 

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by raBBit

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

3 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

The fact that you used the word "kerfuffle" makes me love and appreciate you even more..  You keep hoppin' RaBBit

[bjchinn15]

20 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

I appreciate the posts you take time to share, as well as others that share inside tidbits and details. I have been reading this site for awhile and very often I scan through pages to search your replies/ posts as well as the handful of soxtalk legends ( my opinion ). Like others have said the majority of us appreciate information and a small percentage will always seem to challenge anything but that is just about any aspect in life today, in fact a few co workers at my job have debated on why water fountains outside of restrooms automatically only give cold/ room temperature water why is there not a warm / hot option. This is actually is not true and never took place but maybe it can be something we debate until the next insider posts any good news 

Edited January 29, 2019 by bjchinn15

[smellysox]

3 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

I would be shocked if the White Sox ever lowered their "formal" offer.

Agreed

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, EL1 said:

The only reason it might be bad for the White Sox is from a leverage standpoint. The White Sox should be using Bryce to get Manny to sign. Show more interest in the guy try and bring him in for a tour of the stadium. 

Great, a frozen Harper statue outside 35th and Shields might not be too helpful this week.

Better to meet him in the Caymans.

[IowaPG]

Can manny survive the chicago tundra?

[Harry Chappas]

50 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The only “leverage” the White Sox have is their ability to be the highest bidder. And in the current CBA, that is nothing to take lightly. 

But there are no hardline negotiation tricks the White Sox can pull that are going to change how this thing turns out. Everyone involved knows the score.

Just follow the facts and logic. 

1. The White Sox are in NO hurry. They have publicly expressed it, and everyone knew it anyway. They are on the up in a rebuild no matter who they sign this year. They do not expect to win in 2019, and therefore there is no reason they would ever put a hard deadline on an offer. Unlike contenders, the do not need to pivot. Any suggestion that their offer is limited or coming off the table would correctly be perceived as insubstantive, impatient bluster. 

2. The White Sox have elected to give a “reasonable*” bid and have refused to move off of it until they are outbid. This is a rational course of action, even though it may frustrate Machado’s camp. Their current bid does not imply that they are not willing to go higher if necessary. Reported Mystery teams that are now interested because “the bidding is lower than expected” serve as no threat, so long as the White Sox are actually willing to win bidding up to a somewhat reasonable point. By definition, these mystery teams were not interested in the expected winning bid levels, and so the most they can do is force to White Sox to increase their bid — something they should have been willing to do from the start. 

3. There is no reason for either Harper or Machado to expect that the others contract “precedent” will affect their own. This is basic economics. Whoever signs the first one will win the bidding by offering the highest amount of money that anyone was willing to offer. Therefore, there will by definition be no one left on the market that was willing to pay that amount. When you remove an asset from the market, you also remove a bidder. Each team values each asset based on their internal resources and needs, which are varied and myriad. They will not pay above the number, regardless of what other teams pay for other assets. 

4. If there’s any reason for either player to worry about the other’s contract, it’s the fact that a signing effectively removes a bidder from the process.

I said this a few weeks ago when the media was talking about things “getting wrapped up soon” and it remains true today: I don’t see any reason for this not to keep dragging out. Lozano knows the White Sox offer isn’t what he wants, but he also knows it isn’t going anywhere. There is no reason for him not to continue to try to find better offers all the way the wire. This remains true even if the White Sox DID decide to “bid against themselves” and increase their offer.

The White Sox are still well positioned to get one of these guys, but there isn’t anything they can do to rush the process. 

 

This should be the first post of a new thread on Machado.

[Harry Chappas]

23 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I never said something was happening at Sox fest. Chili said something was happening and and everyone was talking about that and I said something like "I wonder what the Sox do with the info" or that if he release something watch their twitter on the hour.  I was operating off of something I had heard from someone else but I was not at the liberty to share and didn't see anything other than speculate. And, I don't have any info on it but Hahn said this weekend that things fell through in the last 48 hours. The Sox are setting up their moves for if they get Machado or if they don't. If Lozano has heartburn the Sox may be less inclined to complete a given move.

This offseason I haven't been able to really talk about anything as a fan. I've said stuff in the beginning of the offseason and immediately had to respond to my post that was screenshotted and brought to twitter. To be clear, I may not on twitter or soxtalk all week and then yesterday I am informed that I am in the middle of some big kerfuffle where literally 75%+ of the info being thrown around is wrong and a lot of people who haven't been here for a few years is saying stuff that I don't know where they get it from. Also, please keep in mind that I work really long hours and focus on my personal life on the weekend. I may post something and not see the response to it for 5-6-7 days. I may post during lunch (like now) and then be staring into my work until 9PM. I am not running for anything, I wish I could post more. There are far too many people here who would gladly acknowledge I'll back up words far beyond where I need to go. 

A lot of this drama is going to happen naturally with the Sox being in the midst of this big saga but when it devolves into throwing stones at Shack I don't know what to tell you. I should say, I was very happy to see some of the older posters come in and put the hammer down on that as they historically have.

I think we all *cough cough* especially the newer posters *cough cough* need to have a bit more of a questioning mindset of these new posters with sources. In the past, you'd be questioned pretty hard trying to pass info as a new poster. Now there are reddit burner accounts breaking news and anything is considered and that's fair but just try to take everything in stride. I think this whole dilemma has shown the execs aren't confident in anything. It's had the national insiders being dragged through the mud. The local insiders have looked ridiculous. People are being used left and right.

The players are running out of time. Relax until then. 

 

This should be the second thread in the new Machado thread and then the thread should be closed.