Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[Roughneck]

4 minutes ago, shipps said:

The Joc move is largely what I am referring to and to me its not a small detail. That would be a pretty huge move in its own right. And there is probably another that we havent even heard about knowing Hahn. 

I dont think there is anything wrong with Hahn at least communicating this dilemma to Lozano to possibly add some sense of urgency to get this done. I just dont get the feeling that a waiting game is beneficial for the Sox for many reasons. Sox should be adding pressure to Machados camp to make a decision any way they can. Maybe they are, I dont know, waiting and not knowing anything behind the scenes leads you to believe that they are messing everything up. LOL

If they are getting Joc for the deal that was rumored last Thursday, that's fine. Giving up mediocre prospects or a Nicky Delmonico for him is a win no matter what. But it would make no sense for them to give up any prospects of value for someone with 2 years left unless they have Machado. In that case, the timetable is moved up and they're essentially trying to win 80 games this year and make the playoffs next year. And realistically, there's nothing much the Sox can do other than bluff. The Sox need Machado, but he has other suitors. There won't be another Manny coming around for the Sox next offseason.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Right but realistically, if Machado takes so long that the Pederson move can’t happen, the plan doesn’t really change.

Maybe they find someone else or maybe we lose another game or two next year. That isn’t worth putting the larger picture in jeopardy. 

The only danger would be losing Pederson to a team like the Indians if they wait too long.   Right now, there’s not much pressure on Cleveland to add before the trade deadline, but that might change if the Twins could at least challenge them in the first half.  A $5 million salary has to be incredibly attractive to a small market team that fought hard to get rid themselves of Encarnacion, Alonso, Gomes, etc.

Really, the main pressure is from the fanbase and the sense they don’t have the horses in the starting lineup or bullpen to realistically match up with the Big 3 in the AL.   

[shipps]

5 minutes ago, mqr said:

You can’t risk blowing up a negotiation because you can’t decide if you need to trade for Joc Pederson. That would be a horrible idea. 

Negotiating isn't friendly. I am not advocating for a hard deadline but Hahn could communicate a need to Lozano for Manny to decide so that he can move on with the teams other off season moves. Whether is be over stated to him or not. The long game is not going to play out well for the Sox with this. Unless there supposed "lower offer" is higher than any other team is willing to go for now and in the future? If its not, the Sox may very well get burned down the line for not being aggressive and putting the pressure on him to decide now.  

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

If they are getting Joc for the deal that was rumored last Thursday, that's fine. Giving up mediocre prospects or a Nicky Delmonico for him is a win no matter what. But it would make no sense for them to give up any prospects of value for someone with 2 years left unless they have Machado. In that case, the timetable is moved up and they're essentially trying to win 80 games this year and make the playoffs next year. And realistically, there's nothing much the Sox can do other than bluff. The Sox need Machado, but he has other suitors. There won't be another Manny coming around for the Sox next offseason.

The only top player we have a connection to is obviously Sale...maybe getting rid of KW instead off adding vets would work, but that’s seemingly riskier than adding a stud everyday player to anchor the offense.

Plus, we were already hamstrung for part of the last decade due to the Danks deal.  Sale’s will be at least 3X that size, with the fact that he hasn’t yet had a major injury but is breaking down in the second half each year weighing heavily.

Edited January 29, 2019 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

32 minutes ago, shipps said:

At what point does Hahn have to put a deadline for Manny to take or leave? He has a "Manny plan" that involves pursuing other trades and FA signings that are contingent on Manny signing. He wont be able to act on this plan and many of those deals may pass him by the longer Manny waits.  

The great part is that the Sox can outwait the players as they know they aren't winning anything next year, so there is no pressure to move on to Plan B for 2019.

[SCCWS]

29 minutes ago, shipps said:

At what point does Hahn have to put a deadline for Manny to take or leave? He has a "Manny plan" that involves pursuing other trades and FA signings that are contingent on Manny signing. He wont be able to act on this plan and many of those deals may pass him by the longer Manny waits.  

I think the players in those other trades are pretty easily duplicated. If he can't get Player A from Pitt. he can get a comparable guy from the Mets.  But I am assuming we are not talking about Kimbrel  or Moustakas but rather a 5th starter or another bullpen arm. 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The only danger would be losing Pederson to a team like the Indians if they wait too long.   Right now, there’s not much pressure on Cleveland to add before the trade deadline, but that might change if the Twins could at least challenge them in the first half.  A $5 million salary has to be incredibly attractive to a small market team that fought hard to get rid themselves of Encarnacion, Alonso, Gomes, etc.

Really, the main pressure is from the fanbase and the sense they don’t have the horses in the starting lineup or bullpen to realistically match up with the Big 3 in the AL.   

Missing out on Pederson is only a big loss if it changes Manny's mind on the Sox.

[Saufley]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The great part is that the Sox can outwait the players as they know they aren't winning anything next year, so there is no pressure to move on to Plan B for 2019.

I just don't want the Sox to fail by  trying  to outsmart themselves in this negotiation.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Saufley

[ptatc]

41 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

By definition they are closer than they were in November unless they decide not to ever sign a contract.

Closer in time perhaps but maybe not contract terms.

Edited January 29, 2019 by ptatc

[Roughneck]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The only top player we have a connection to is obviously Sale...maybe getting rid of KW instead off adding vets would work, but that’s seemingly riskier than adding a stud everyday player to anchor the offense.

Plus, we were already hamstrung for part of the last decade due to the Danks deal.  Sale’s will be at least 3X that size, with the fact that he hasn’t yet had a major injury but is breaking down in the second half each year weighing heavily.

With the nature of pitchers, there will be other starters. Maybe not one as good statistically as Sale, but they might be better served getting a slightly-worse pitcher and then adding a much better 3rd or 4th starter, or something like that. For the people thinking you need an ace to win in the playoffs, He hasn't shown anything ace-like in his two postseasons, and the Red Sox won anyway. But other than Arenado who may or may not hit free agency, there aren't any solutions coming up for the gaping hole at 3B on the Sox. There will be a gigantic dropoff from Manny to anyone else.

[Roughneck]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Missing out on Pederson is only a big loss if it changes Manny's mind on the Sox.

Right, and considering Joc only has two years of control left, I don't think he has any impact on Manny's thinking about where to play for the next 7-10 years. It probably has less impact on him than "you can play with your bestie and brother-in-law for one year."

[shipps]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The great part is that the Sox can outwait the players as they know they aren't winning anything next year, so there is no pressure to move on to Plan B for 2019.

Outwait? I don't think I agree with that as it implies that they can go however long they want. The Sox can wait but if they think they can wait into ST and further and it be to their favor they would be taking a risk. That allows for other team situations (like the Yankees) to change with either injuries, financial adjustments, or just flat out changing their mind.   

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

With the nature of pitchers, there will be other starters. Maybe not one as good statistically as Sale, but they might be better served getting a slightly-worse pitcher and then adding a much better 3rd or 4th starter, or something like that. For the people thinking you need an ace to win in the playoffs, He hasn't shown anything ace-like in his two postseasons, and the Red Sox won anyway. But other than Arenado who may or may not hit free agency, there aren't any solutions coming up for the gaping hole at 3B on the Sox. There will be a gigantic dropoff from Manny to anyone else.

One of the concepts behind doing a rebuild like this one is that if you can get enough players to fill most of your positions, you can stop wasting your money on the terrible adam laroches, melky cabreras, and stop trading talent for Todd Fraziers and Jeff Samardzijas - guys who are good to replacement level players but with high overall price tags. If you can fill 4 of your 5 starting pitching slots with young guys and 7 or 8 of your position spots with young guys, then you can take your financial assets and go after the big guys, the guys who are less likely to be Melky Cabrera or Adam Laroche disappointing. 

In other words, if we are adding #3 and #4 starters, then we did this wrong. We should be able to get 4-ish good enough starters out of the guys in our system that if we want to add a starting pitcher, it's a Sale or a Cole or a Verlander. We should have Anderson and Moncada and Jiminez and Robert and Collins and Palka covering position spots and lineup spots so that we can go after a Machado for 3b rather than having to sign a Moustakas and trade for a Pederson and so on to cover 4 or 5 lineup slots. Or, we have the assets in the minors (Madrigal, a couple of the OFs) to make a trade for a huge difference maker like Blake Snell or Jacob DeGrom. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Saufley said:

I just don't want the Sox to fail by  trying  to outsmart themselves in this negotiation.

I also don't want to see them do something out of desperation.

[Saufley]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I also don't want to see them do something out of desperation.

There has to be something in between that can get this done!

[Roughneck]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One of the concepts behind doing a rebuild like this one is that if you can get enough players to fill most of your positions, you can stop wasting your money on the terrible adam laroches, melky cabreras, and stop trading talent for Todd Fraziers and Jeff Samardzijas - guys who are good to replacement level players but with high overall price tags. If you can fill 4 of your 5 starting pitching slots with young guys and 7 or 8 of your position spots with young guys, then you can take your financial assets and go after the big guys, the guys who are less likely to be Melky Cabrera or Adam Laroche disappointing. 

In other words, if we are adding #3 and #4 starters, then we did this wrong. We should be able to get 4-ish good enough starters out of the guys in our system that if we want to add a starting pitcher, it's a Sale or a Cole or a Verlander. We should have Anderson and Moncada and Jiminez and Robert and Collins and Palka covering position spots and lineup spots so that we can go after a Machado for 3b rather than having to sign a Moustakas and trade for a Pederson and so on to cover 4 or 5 lineup slots. Or, we have the assets in the minors (Madrigal, a couple of the OFs) to make a trade for a huge difference maker like Blake Snell or Jacob DeGrom. 

Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that there are far more players closer in talent to Sale than there are Machado. Just common sense that every team has 5+ starters and 1 thirdbaseman. Maybe they sign a #1 starter any use the difference from Sale elsewhere. There will be other really good starting pitchers available. There won't be another Manny. Caulfield brought up Sale, and I'd actually run from offering him a huge FA deal at this point. Right now, I'd much rather sign Bumgarner next year, anyway.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Roughneck

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Saufley said:

There has to be something in between that can get this done!

Which is exactly where we are now.

[smellysox]

3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

The only “leverage” the White Sox have is their ability to be the highest bidder. And in the current CBA, that is nothing to take lightly. 

But there are no hardline negotiation tricks the White Sox can pull that are going to change how this thing turns out. Everyone involved knows the score.

Just follow the facts and logic. 

1. The White Sox are in NO hurry. They have publicly expressed it, and everyone knew it anyway. They are on the up in a rebuild no matter who they sign this year. They do not expect to win in 2019, and therefore there is no reason they would ever put a hard deadline on an offer. Unlike contenders, the do not need to pivot. Any suggestion that their offer is limited or coming off the table would correctly be perceived as insubstantive, impatient bluster. 

2. The White Sox have elected to give a “reasonable*” bid and have refused to move off of it until they are outbid. This is a rational course of action, even though it may frustrate Machado’s camp. Their current bid does not imply that they are not willing to go higher if necessary. Reported Mystery teams that are now interested because “the bidding is lower than expected” serve as no threat, so long as the White Sox are actually willing to win bidding up to a somewhat reasonable point. By definition, these mystery teams were not interested in the expected winning bid levels, and so the most they can do is force to White Sox to increase their bid — something they should have been willing to do from the start. 

3. There is no reason for either Harper or Machado to expect that the others contract “precedent” will affect their own. This is basic economics. Whoever signs the first one will win the bidding by offering the highest amount of money that anyone was willing to offer. Therefore, there will by definition be no one left on the market that was willing to pay that amount. When you remove an asset from the market, you also remove a bidder. Each team values each asset based on their internal resources and needs, which are varied and myriad. They will not pay above the number, regardless of what other teams pay for other assets. 

4. If there’s any reason for either player to worry about the other’s contract, it’s the fact that a signing effectively removes a bidder from the process.

I said this a few weeks ago when the media was talking about things “getting wrapped up soon” and it remains true today: I don’t see any reason for this not to keep dragging out. Lozano knows the White Sox offer isn’t what he wants, but he also knows it isn’t going anywhere. There is no reason for him not to continue to try to find better offers all the way the wire. This remains true even if the White Sox DID decide to “bid against themselves” and increase their offer.

The White Sox are still well positioned to get one of these guys, but there isn’t anything they can do to rush the process. 

 

Love this! Well said.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that there are far more players closer in talent to Sale than there are Machado. Just common sense that every team has 5+ starters and 1 thirdbaseman. Maybe they sign a #1 starter any use the difference from Sale elsewhere. There will be other really good starting pitchers available. There won't be another Manny. Caulfield brought up Sale, and I'd actually run from offering him a huge FA deal at this point. Right now, I'd much rather sign Bumgarner next year, anyway.

Huh? 

One, its certainly not easier to find sales than it is machado's. I'm not sure why you think it's not as hard to find an ace than a stud position player. Look at how many pitchers put up 5 WAR a year and compare it with position players. It's easier to find a Machado than a sale. A true dominant ace is the hardest commodity to find in baseball.

Two, why would anyone rather pay bumgarner? Madison on an downward trajectory and has had two bad injuries in the past couple years. I wouldn't pay either one personally - given the volatility of pitchers and the age of both - but if I had to pay one I'd pay sale. Sale has had some nagging things here and there but in general hes been dominant and healthy for 8 years.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

37 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

With the nature of pitchers, there will be other starters. Maybe not one as good statistically as Sale, but they might be better served getting a slightly-worse pitcher and then adding a much better 3rd or 4th starter, or something like that. For the people thinking you need an ace to win in the playoffs, He hasn't shown anything ace-like in his two postseasons, and the Red Sox won anyway. But other than Arenado who may or may not hit free agency, there aren't any solutions coming up for the gaping hole at 3B on the Sox. There will be a gigantic dropoff from Manny to anyone else.

Anthony Rendon is really good. Had 3 years where he finished 5th , 5th and 11th in MVP voting and 2 of those came in the last 2 years. Basically the most underrated 6+ fWAR guy in baseball.

Edited January 29, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[smellysox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

But it does allow the impasse to continue over which year the opt out kicks in if they’re (the Machado camp) not really convinced the White Sox are the best situation long-term.

It’s also not wrong for him to be at least a little hesitant about being locked in for 4 years with only one of those likely including his buddies and BIL.  Especially going into the offseason expecting at least $275 million...you want an inspired/motivated version of Machado, which is why there must be some follow up moves to at least make contention in 2019 a glimmer of a possibility if you squint hard enough.

Otherwise, you run the risk of his becoming a not so positive role model to the likes of Jimenez and Moncada if they end up around 60-65 wins again.

And after 4 years there might be coaching changes. Maybe a new GM? He might have questions about ownership. What happens after JR passes on? New direction for the organization?  Alot to consider. 

[NorthSideSox72]

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, smellysox said:

And after 4 years there might be coaching changes. Maybe a new GM? He might have questions about ownership. What happens after JR passes on? New direction for the organization?  Alot to consider. 

This isnt college. He couldnt care less who his GM or owner are as long as the checks keep cashing.

[smellysox]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This isnt college. He couldnt care less who his GM or owner are as long as the checks keep cashing.

Yeah that's fair.

[Saufley]

19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This isnt college. He couldnt care less who his GM or owner are as long as the checks keep cashing.

This being said as Anthony Davis of the Pelicans demanding a trade because of the joint ownership of the Pelicans and Saints.