Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[Jack Parkman]

24 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

The point I was making is that it's possible for good players to get hurt. Any injury to Machado and Harper this year on a one year deal hurts big time. If they miss 60 games it will hurt their next contracts. 

Well sure. My point is that the chances are greater than zero, but in reality many magnitudes lower than 1%. Why would you risk getting what you want for .0001 % chance that you'll get hurt? It is non zero, but if you played 10K seasons you'd only get hurt enough to affect your contract in one of them. If you want to argue poor batted ball luck, that is another thing entirely. Teams should be smart enough to overlook that. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[KiwiSox]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Why would Machado or his agent brag about low offers? If you were his agent and only had a 7/175, would you want that out there? Would you be telling other teams that it was the high bid?

Im guessing to get more teams involved? His job is to get the best offer possible and logic dictates that the more teams bidding, the higher the bids will get. Not that I believe any of what I see reported when it comes to this saga anyways.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

Im guessing to get more teams involved? His job is to get the best offer possible and logic dictates that the more teams bidding, the higher the bids will get. Not that I believe any of what I see reported when it comes to this saga anyways.

It is also worth noting that Rick Hahn said at Soxfest something to the effect of still not knowing what it would take to sign Machado. 

[KiwiSox]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is also worth noting that Rick Hahn said at Soxfest something to the effect of still not knowing what it would take to sign Machado. 

I think I believe Rick Hahn less than I believe anyone.

[KiwiSox]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

Including previous HR totals? 

Sorry, I had to. ?

ESPECIALLY previous HR totals.

[Jack Parkman]

2019 is about identifying a core for the window, and the 2019-20 offseason is to supplement the roster around that. Kopech getting hurt really sucks, but if it had to happen, now is the best timing.

The only untouchables I have right now are: 

Eloy

Moncada/Madrigal(completely dependent on Moncada's 2019-if Moncada takes a big step forward, he stays, if Moncada makes little to no progress, Madrigal stays if he tears up the minors) If both look bad lean toward Moncada or give them another season. 

Kopech 

Cease 

Robert

and that is it. 

Anyone else is trade bait, including the 2B that you don't keep. 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[KiwiSox]

They gotta start winning some ballgames.

Really, they are going to have Moncada and Eloy both on the major league squad. Cease and Madrigal wont be far behind. The injury to Kopech sucks but it should not be debilitating. The time to start stringing together some on-field success is now.

I'm not saying they gotta sell out to win ninety games, but if they aren't .500 I'm gonna be a little upset.

[southsider2k5]

19 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I think I believe Rick Hahn less than I believe anyone.

Except that other teams behavior is consistent with it.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

They gotta start winning some ballgames.

Really, they are going to have Moncada and Eloy both on the major league squad. Cease and Madrigal wont be far behind. The injury to Kopech sucks but it should not be debilitating. The time to start stringing together some on-field success is now.

I'm not saying they gotta sell out to win ninety games, but if they aren't .500 I'm gonna be a little upset.

This roster is no where near .500 right now. They may not even be there with Machado. 

[KiwiSox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

This roster is no where near .500 right now. They may not even be there with Machado. 

Its kinda hard to say since there is so much potential on the Sox roster. Both potential for good and bad.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

They gotta start winning some ballgames.

Really, they are going to have Moncada and Eloy both on the major league squad. Cease and Madrigal wont be far behind. The injury to Kopech sucks but it should not be debilitating. The time to start stringing together some on-field success is now.

I'm not saying they gotta sell out to win ninety games, but if they aren't .500 I'm gonna be a little upset.

They're probably not winning 81 games this year, unless Moncada/Lopez/Giolito take a big step forward, Rodon becomes a TOR starter and Eloy comes up and rakes. Should they get Machado or Harper, the margin for error becomes a lot wider with those guys. 

I expect them to win 75-79 games if a lot of things go right, and if  a lot of the young guys don't make improvements, and they don't land a whale, I expect them to lose at least 93 games. 

The only way they win 81+ games is with Machado/Harper+significant improvement from Moncada and two of Rodon/Lopez/Giolito. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

Its kinda hard to say since there is so much potential on the Sox roster. Both potential for good and bad.

Even aside from the Eloy arrival - if you get so many things to go right that this roster can push 15+ extra wins out of the guys that are already here, I'll start thinking that these guys deserve coach of the year honors. 

[shipps]

3 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

Its kinda hard to say since there is so much potential on the Sox roster. Both potential for good and bad.

Well for the metrics guys there is overwhelming evidence that points to Sox being bad. Projected WAR tells us this team even with a manny will not be good. 

I personally don’t buy too much into projecting WAR on guys but that’s just me. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Even aside from the Eloy arrival - if you get so many things to go right that this roster can push 15+ extra wins out of the guys that are already here, I'll start thinking that these guys deserve coach of the year honors. 

Out of the youngish players on the roster, I see marginal room for growth from Lopez,  moderate from Anderson and Rodon, and large from Moncada and Giolito. However, with large room for growth, also comes a large variance in probable outcomes. I think Lopez is what he is for the most part, with room for more Ks. I've given up on Rodon being an ace, but I still think he could be a #2. Same for Giolito, unless his offseason workouts and mechanical adjustments gain him more velocity. Moncada is all over the place, anywhere on the player spectrum from Byron Buxton to Jose Ramirez. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Even aside from the Eloy arrival - if you get so many things to go right that this roster can push 15+ extra wins out of the guys that are already here, I'll start thinking that these guys deserve coach of the year honors. 

Yup, young talented players clearly can’t improve.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yup, young talented players clearly can’t improve.

Yup, if any talented players improve at all they will immediately win 15 more games this year. That's not even up for debate it's so obvious, if they're better at all that's immediately 15 more wins guaranteed. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yup, young talented players clearly can’t improve.

It isn't that they can't improve, it is that he doesn't trust Sox coaching/Player Development. I don't blame him one bit. Balta and I agree on a lot, except he's very pessimistic about the rebuild where I hover between mildly pessimistic to cautiously optimistic, depending on my mood at the given moment. Most of the time I'm pretty neutral.  I completely understand that viewpoint, as there are many reasons to doubt the Sox player evaluation

I'm higher on Moncada and Giolito than most, and I'm lower on Lopez/Collins/Madrigal than most. 

I really don't blame the Sox for Burger because they got stuck picking 11th in a 10 player draft. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

It isn't that they can't improve, it is that he doesn't trust Sox coaching/Player Development. I don't blame him one bit. Balta and I agree on a lot, except he's super down on the rebuild where I remain neutral to cautiously optimistic. 

Actually that's not it, really it isn't. My saying that is a measure of how incredibly far this roster has to go. There's a decent amount of talent here already, with more on the way, but to expect that it's all going to go right, to the point that it adds 15 wins to this 62 loss franchise, with even more than that necessary since some people will get hurt as they always do and probably one of our FA/trade additions will just fall apart...that's what I can't see.

There's so far to go that SO MUCH needs to go right for this team to push .500 that I would be really applauding the coaching and development staff because THAT MUCH going right in one year would be truly impressive. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Out of the youngish players on the roster, I see marginal room for growth from Lopez,  moderate from Anderson and Rodon, and large from Moncada and Giolito. However, with large room for growth, also comes a large variance in probable outcomes. I think Lopez is what he is for the most part, with room for more Ks. 

I can’t believe anyone can think Lopez is what he is for the most part.  He pitched quite well down the stretch and has significant room for improvement.  I think he’s ends up a 4 win pitcher next year.

Rodon & Moncada easily have the most room for improvement IMO.  Anderson will always be limited due to his below average plate discipline, but can get a little better with more consistent defense.  Giolito is a wild card, but I still don’t see anything more than #3 starter even if his mechanics finally click.

[Mooseman]

If Hahn and company truly feel they have MAchado and signing Gio as well trading for Joc are dependant on that then I say fuck it make those moves now.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Whitesox27 said:

Why would either of them take a 1 year deal when they will get hundreds of millions of dollars now? They could get hurt at some point next season and never be the same. There is no point for either of these guys to bet on themselves and take a 1 year pillow deal. It's way too risky.

It's also a worse market next year. This isnt even a conversation. 

What is happening right now is Lozano is trying to get near or to the number him and machado set as their goal pre offseason. He is in no rush to sign a lesser deal but eventually will have to accept something close enough. 

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yup, if any talented players improve at all they will immediately win 15 more games this year. That's not even up for debate it's so obvious, if they're better at all that's immediately 15 more wins guaranteed. 

I’m not sure where this 15 more wins is coming from, but I’d argue our young players underperformed last year and should be significantly better next year.  How many wins that represents I have no idea, but the coaching staff doesn’t deserve credit for top 50 prospects being halfway decent players.

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can’t believe anyone can think Lopez is what he is for the most part.  He pitched quite well down the stretch and has significant room for improvement.  I think he’s ends up a 4 win pitcher next year.

Rodon & Moncada easily have the most room for improvement IMO.  Anderson will always be limited due to his below average plate discipline, but can get a little better with more consistent defense.  Giolito is a wild card, but I still don’t see anything more than #3 starter even if his mechanics finally click.

As of right now, I see Lopez as a #3-4 and I don't think he gets much better than that, even if he starts striking out more batters. I think he compares, numbers wise, to Quintana's best seasons in a Sox uni. He'll have a season or two where he Ks 190-210 but most of the time he'll be in the 170-190 range. He'll be a 3-4 WAR pitcher depending on the season. In his best years, he'll be a #2 but when those come I don't know. ERA will hover around 3.2-4.2 with most years being in the 3.4-3.8 range.  It isn't a knock on him, it is just that the Sox have other RHP with much more upside. I'll agree with you on Giolito if he throws amore of strikes this year, walks 65+ batters averages over 93.5 mph on the fastball and still can't miss bats. I think Giolito is going to average around 94mph with his heater this year, could even be higher. Even last year, he averaged 92.8. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m not sure where this 15 more wins is coming from, but I’d argue our young players underperformed last year and should be significantly better next year.  How many wins that represents I have no idea, but the coaching staff doesn’t deserve credit for top 50 prospects being halfway decent players.

I said I wouldn't believe that they were a .500 team counting Eloy and Machado. They were 20 games below .500 last year, 15 is a reasonable guess for what they'd need everyone else to improve by to push .500.

[maxjusttyped]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I said I wouldn't believe that they were a .500 team counting Eloy and Machado. They were 20 games below .500 last year, 15 is a reasonable guess for what they'd need everyone else to improve by to push .500.

FWIW, projection systems would agree with you. Right now FG has them projected at 70-92. To reach .500 they'd likely need to sign Machado, trade for Joc, and make a significant upgrade to the rotation.