Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, maxjusttyped said: FWIW, projection systems would agree with you. Right now FG has them projected at 70-92. To reach .500 they'd likely need to sign Machado, trade for Joc, and make a significant upgrade to the rotation. Projection systems are also whack on young pitchers who struggled in FIP/xFIP in their first full season, so you have to take that with a MASSIVE grain of salt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Projection systems are also whack on young pitchers who struggled in FIP/xFIP in their first full season, so you have to take that with a MASSIVE grain of salt. Projection systems also have to no idea how to account for a guy like Moncada who is a couple adjustments away from being a stud. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: Projection systems also have to no idea how to account for a guy like Moncada who is a couple adjustments away from being a stud. Same with pitchers like Lopez and Giolito, and even Rodon. I completely agree. Moncada could go from crap to Jose Ramirez this year. Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Well sure. My point is that the chances are greater than zero, but in reality many magnitudes lower than 1%. Why would you risk getting what you want for .0001 % chance that you'll get hurt? It is non zero, but if you played 10K seasons you'd only get hurt enough to affect your contract in one of them. If you want to argue poor batted ball luck, that is another thing entirely. Teams should be smart enough to overlook that. Or they can get a three year opt out and redo their contracts if they are worthy of a pay raise, or if the CBA allows them to make even more money. If things fail, they can just stay put and collect fat checks. If things fail for them this year, they are screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, SonofaRoache said: Or they can get a three year opt out and redo their contracts if they are worthy of a pay raise, or if the CBA allows them to make even more money. If things fail, they can just stay put and collect fat checks. If things fail for them this year, they are screwed. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them signed with someone like the Cardinals with an opt out after each of the first 3 seasons, and a total deal in the 7/220 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Same with pitchers like Lopez and Giolito, and even Rodon. 100% agree. I honestly don’t put much weight into projection systems when it comes to young players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) Just now, Chicago White Sox said: 100% agree. I honestly don’t put much weight into projection systems when it comes to young players. We're on the same page there. I think they need 3-4 seasons of data in order to accurately project MLB performance. Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Adding Harper/Eloy could change the whole complexion of the team to where almost anything is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: Well sure. My point is that the chances are greater than zero, but in reality many magnitudes lower than 1%. Why would you risk getting what you want for .0001 % chance that you'll get hurt? It is non zero, but if you played 10K seasons you'd only get hurt enough to affect your contract in one of them. If you want to argue poor batted ball luck, that is another thing entirely. Teams should be smart enough to overlook that. Would the Sox bid the same on Luis Robert today, knowing how fragile he has been? Would they draft Burger? Rodon? (Thinking about Kolek, Aiken and Rodon at the top of that draft must make scouts wince...granted, those are pitchers.) We can go back to Frank Thomas’ Achilles injury in 2001...for bigger dudes (Machado qualifies) , there’s still a risk those players won’t be exactly the same upon returning. Would he have enough lateral quickness and first step burst to still play Gold Glove level at 3B? That’s a significant aspect of his value proposition. Shohei Ohtani as just a DH if he were a FA this year again? What about accidents like Jayson Williams with the Bulls, Aaron Rowland with his motorcycle, Jose Fernandez, Yordano Ventura, Oscar Tavares, that Angels’ rookie pitcher Adenhart... Now while all these probabilities are not great, they are risks most agents and players aren’t willing to assume...to leave $200+ million on the table and assume you will be able to better your negotiating position in the future. Edited February 1, 2019 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) If I was going to have a pipedream remainder of the offseason, it would be the following: Harper-8/260, opt out after years 4/5/6. Moustakas-2/22 to give the team more time to evaluate Moncada vs Madrigal and that is it. I'm perfectly ok with running with Banuelos/Covey/Fulmer in the 5th spot until either Dunning or Cease are ready. Keep that spot open. I wouldn't complain about Gio Gonzalez as an add on a 1-year deal. I just don't want him and a potentially bad Giolito blocking either Dunning or Cease when they're ready for the Majors. Next offseason sign either Cole or Sale and use that prospect capital to acquire players to fill holes with 3+ year controllable players, especially the OFers other than Robert, Basabe, and Walker(if he can stick in CF) Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: As of right now, I see Lopez as a #3-4 and I don't think he gets much better than that, even if he starts striking out more batters. I think he compares, numbers wise, to Quintana's best seasons in a Sox uni. He'll have a season or two where he Ks 190-210 but most of the time he'll be in the 170-190 range. He'll be a 3-4 WAR pitcher depending on the season. In his best years, he'll be a #2 but when those come I don't know. ERA will hover around 3.2-4.2 with most years being in the 3.4-3.8 range. It isn't a knock on him, it is just that the Sox have other RHP with much more upside. I'll agree with you on Giolito if he throws amore of strikes this year, walks 65+ batters averages over 93.5 mph on the fastball and still can't miss bats. I think Giolito is going to average around 94mph with his heater this year, could even be higher. Even last year, he averaged 92.8. The only ones you can argue over López are Cease and a healthy Kopech...and the ghost of Hansen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capital G Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: Well sure. My point is that the chances are greater than zero, but in reality many magnitudes lower than 1%. Why would you risk getting what you want for .0001 % chance that you'll get hurt? It is non zero, but if you played 10K seasons you'd only get hurt enough to affect your contract in one of them. If you want to argue poor batted ball luck, that is another thing entirely. Teams should be smart enough to overlook that. Why do that when he's likely to sign with an opt out at year 3 or 4. He gets his guaranteed money without worrying about injury and if he gets hurt he's still collecting money. If he really wants to play for someone else he opts out and signs with them in a few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: If I was going to have a pipedream remainder of the offseason, it would be the following: Harper-8/260, opt out after years 4/5/6. Moustakas-2/22 to give the team more time to evaluate Moncada vs Madrigal and that is it. I'm perfectly ok with running with Banuelos/Covey/Fulmer in the 5th spot until either Dunning or Cease are ready. Keep that spot open. I wouldn't complain about Gio Gonzalez as an add on a 1-year deal. I just don't want him and a potentially bad Giolito blocking either Dunning or Cease when they're ready for the Majors. Then he would just take another one year deal to go back to Milwaukee, with Shaw moving back to 2B... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Capital G said: Why do that when he's likely to sign with an opt out at year 3 or 4. He gets his guaranteed money without worrying about injury and if he gets hurt he's still collecting money. If he really wants to play for someone else he opts out and signs with them in a few years. My prevailing argument is that location is more important to them than money. Machado wants to play in NYC, whether for the Mets or Yankees, and Harper wants to play for any of the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: My prevailing argument is that location is more important to them than money. Machado wants to play in NYC, whether for the Mets or Yankees, and Harper wants to play for any of the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs. Except Machado never said he wanted to play for the Mets, it was speculation his wife preferred NYC. He has always wanted the Yankees, but it wasn’t an either/or proposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Then he would just take another one year deal to go back to Milwaukee, with Shaw moving back to 2B... I don't think that teams value him that highly because his OBP is shitty and he hits .240-270. His hitter profile is considered dime a dozen these days. He's still a decent 3B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Except Machado never said he wanted to play for the Mets, it was speculation his wife preferred NYC. He has always wanted the Yankees, but it wasn’t an either/or proposition. I think there is strong chance that the Yankees and Cubs would be in on those players next year when they aren't this year, because they both have a LOT of bad money coming off the books. Ellsbury, Gardner, and Cap'n Cheeseburger are off the books next year and that would cover Machado for the Yankees. The Cubs have only 93.5M in guaranteed contracts for 2020(including Quintana's 12.5M option, as that is a no brainer) , and Zobrist comes off the books for them. They also have a LOT of arb eligible players though. Also Pipedream offseason with Machado: Machado(8/260) Carlos Gonzalez on a 1 year deal. Basically, you fill 3B and RF, and possibly sign Gio Gonzalez or Clay Buchholz to a 1 year deal for the rotation. Again, I wouldn't complain either way with regard to the rotation. Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EloyJenkins Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 28 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I wouldn't be surprised if one of them signed with someone like the Cardinals with an opt out after each of the first 3 seasons, and a total deal in the 7/220 range. Absolutely not. The players association would revolt if Harper got 7/220. He gets 290 at absolute minimum, and Machado ends up at 260 minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Would the Sox bid the same on Luis Robert today, knowing how fragile he has been? Would they draft Burger? Rodon? (Thinking about Kolek, Aiken and Rodon at the top of that draft must make scouts wince...granted, those are pitchers.) We can go back to Frank Thomas’ Achilles injury in 2001...for bigger dudes (Machado qualifies) , there’s still a risk those players won’t be exactly the same upon returning. Would he have enough lateral quickness and first step burst to still play Gold Glove level at 3B? That’s a significant aspect of his value proposition. Shohei Ohtani as just a DH if he were a FA this year again? What about accidents like Jayson Williams with the Bulls, Aaron Rowland with his motorcycle, Jose Fernandez, Yordano Ventura, Oscar Tavares, that Angels’ rookie pitcher Adenhart... Now while all these probabilities are not great, they are risks most agents and players aren’t willing to assume...to leave $200+ million on the table and assume you will be able to better your negotiating position in the future. Frank Thomas had an Achilles injury? I don't remember that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said: Absolutely not. The players association would revolt if Harper got 7/220. He gets 290 at absolute minimum, and Machado ends up at 260 minimum. I still believe that they'll sit out until they either beat Stanton in total money or they'll sign a 1 year deal in June, around the signing deadline if they don't get it. I don't think they'll beat Stanton, so I do think they'll end up signing the 1-year deal in June. 7/220 isn't crazy, as it still blows away AAV at 31.4M. Stanton's deal is 25M AAV. That is why I think they'll take the 1-year deal. Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said: Absolutely not. The players association would revolt if Harper got 7/220. He gets 290 at absolute minimum, and Machado ends up at 260 minimum. What exactly can they do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: What exactly can they do? Strike immediately to negotiate a better deal. Even before Harper/Machado sign, I think they should consider not showing up to ST. Edited February 1, 2019 by Jack Parkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Taking a 1-year deal and signing after season started is a brutal idea. You’re only costing yourself a ton of money in your next deal if you slump in 2019, and not having a Spring Training is a nice recipe for decreased production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Strike immediately to negotiate a better deal. Even before Harper/Machado sign, I think they should consider not showing up to ST. They are under an agreement until 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Jack Parkman said: Strike immediately to negotiate a better deal. Even before Harper/Machado sign, I think they should consider not showing up to ST. This is legally not allowed and would give the MLB substantial legal authority as the strike itself would be a violation of clauses in the CBA. I believe that teams could start canceling guaranteed contracts with players legally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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