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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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19 minutes ago, FT35 said:

Yep.  What this off-season has done so far has effectively shaved about $100M off the asking price of top free agents.  With Giancarlo Stanton deal at $325M...you now have a player of Manny Machado's caliber (better all-around player imo) not able to get offers in the $225M range (obviously only using numbers that have been rumored).  

I think the owners saw Stanton's number and thought...oh...we need to put an end to this before the likes of Harper and Machado enter the market asking for a half-billion dollars.  They're trying to stop the inflation.  

Owners are just getting tired of having to give 100% percent guaranteed contracts.  There's so many bad contracts in baseball today that owners aren't willing to jeopardize their team's long term finances  in hopes a player pans out for all 7+ years of a deal without the ability to opt out.  

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4 minutes ago, Peacock Wrestler said:

Owners are just getting tired of having to give 100% percent guaranteed contracts.  There's so many bad contracts in baseball today that owners aren't willing to jeopardize their team's long term finances  in hopes a player pans out for all 7+ years of a deal without the ability to opt out.  

Cool, I hope they are then tired of getting the first 6 years of a players career on cheap, non-guaranteed contracts.

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The bright side is that baseball isn't the living nightmare that the NBA is where nobody is paid what they're worth (many are overpaid, though!) and players are randomly shuffled between teams in complicated cap-related moves as nobody gives a shit about anybody but perhaps 5 teams and everyone else is stupid unless they get the #1 pick.

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9 minutes ago, bmags said:

Cool, I hope they are then tired of getting the first 6 years of a players career on cheap, non-guaranteed contracts.

That would lower the overall salary I think. Adding a few million earlier is not as much as the 10s of millions on the end of contracts like Puljols. 

The advanced metrics have really shown how bad the end of the long term deals really are.

The value per WAR has really changed the way GMs and owners look at paying or usually overpaying players.

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4 minutes ago, Jake said:

The bright side is that baseball isn't the living nightmare that the NBA is where nobody is paid what they're worth (many are overpaid, though!) and players are randomly shuffled between teams in complicated cap-related moves as nobody gives a shit about anybody but perhaps 5 teams and everyone else is stupid unless they get the #1 pick.

The thing about basketball fans is they just like watching basketball. Where baseball fans don't get it because their enjoyment (necessarily) is tied through the lens of a single team where their winning and losing is the entire game. I get that soxtalk posters think that the NBA structure is the problem, because it couldn't be their personal preference for which sports they like!, but truly, the nba is actually very popular. It's an amazing fact that few inside this forum can believe.

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5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That would lower the overall salary I think. Adding a few million earlier is not as much as the 10s of millions on the end of contracts like Puljols. 

The advanced metrics have really shown how bad the end of the long term deals really are.

The value per WAR has really changed the way GMs and owners look at paying or usually overpaying players.

Teams would (still) pay more to then end of the deal just to get the peak production that would be available for the age 25, 26 seasons. What sucks is when a pujols is only available starting in the 30s.

edit: also, I don't find value per war as anything other than hypothetical. It has not been very predictive in upcoming markets, more descriptive for past ones.

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2 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

Bob Nightengale was on hot stove and thinks machado will end up with the sox. Says sox are getting more confident as the days go on. Says this is playing out like red Sox and martinez last year. Thinks it will end with in the next week. 

To add to that, here is Heyman

I think the white sox and phillies like both players, because they are both good. So sometimes it comes out that their focus is on different ones. But highest likelihood is sox are more targeted toward machado and phils toward harper.

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8 minutes ago, bmags said:

To add to that, here is Heyman

I think the white sox and phillies like both players, because they are both good. So sometimes it comes out that their focus is on different ones. But highest likelihood is sox are more targeted toward machado and phils toward harper.

I like this sentence.

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16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Teams would (still) pay more to then end of the deal just to get the peak production that would be available for the age 25, 26 seasons. What sucks is when a pujols is only available starting in the 30s.

edit: also, I don't find value per war as anything other than hypothetical. It has not been very predictive in upcoming markets, more descriptive for past ones.

I see your point but I still think it will work the opposite.  The early free agency went artificially raise contracts like arbitration where it either a low value or a high value. True free agency early on will not raise it as much. It will for the elite but for most it won't happen. This will really be true if the players lose the guaranteed contracts in the negotiations. 

The WAR isn't that accurate yet because the teams have really only started using it the last couple of years when we've seen the free agent contracts go down.

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15 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

Bob Nightengale was on hot stove and thinks machado will end up with the sox. Says sox are getting more confident as the days go on. Says this is playing out like red Sox and martinez last year. Thinks it will end with in the next week. 

Some noteworthy dates that are coming up for the Sox:

February 13 - Pitchers and catchers report

February 18 - Position players report and first full squad workouts

February 23 - First spring training game

March 24 - Spring training ends, depart Camelback

My guess is that the signing occurs between the 13th and 18th, but I wouldn't be surprised if it bumps up against the first spring training game.

 

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18 minutes ago, bmags said:

edit: also, I don't find value per war as anything other than hypothetical. It has not been very predictive in upcoming markets, more descriptive for past ones.

I agree, the $/WAR figure comes from what teams have paid for WAR on the FA market, not what they were expecting to pay. It's likely that performance of FA was less than expected by front offices, and they've adjusted their expectations accordingly with the offers in recent years. I doubt teams are/were comfortable paying $9-10 million/WAR, and from what we've seen over the past two offseasons in particular this seems to be the case.

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1 minute ago, mqr said:

ugggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I don't know why that's frustrating. The other way to read it, that we've already talked about, is that they aren't losing any money by waiting, the sox and phills aren't going anywhere, so they will wait.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

I don't know why that's frustrating. The other way to read it, that we've already talked about, is that they aren't losing any money by waiting, the sox and phills aren't going anywhere, so they will wait.

That is exactly why it's so frustrating.

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