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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

With all of the purported leaks yesterday, there was almost nothing regarding the Sox.  Either the Sox are operating below the radar, or they haven't been serious from the beginning.  I'm believing the former, of course.  I just hope we hear something...maybe from one of our trusted insiders.

I believe if they weren't serious from the beginning, they would not have gotten Jay and Alonso.

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Just now, Dick Allen said:

They probably would have been better off putting the money they spent on them, into the offer. 

I 100% agree, but I wonder if they thought that would trigger Manny right away and bring him over sooner than the middle of February.  It was a bold move by the F.O. so let's hope it works out.

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7 minutes ago, drgiggles15 said:

Agreed, I looked at their pitching and it sucks right now.  If their prospects pan out, it might be another story, but for now, they should be investing in some pitching.

They do have the Oakland A's advantage though in a way.. not that this applies come playoffs as much, but they can survive at PetCo with some more suspect pitching than other teams. They still do need SP over bats though. I'd say Machado way over Harper. They have so many OF prospects that they cant play them all (although most haven't panned out like planned)

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9 minutes ago, drgiggles15 said:

Agreed, I looked at their pitching and it sucks right now.  If their prospects pan out, it might be another story, but for now, they should be investing in some pitching.

Literally how much better is our pitching than theirs........ this argument is completely irrelevant

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9 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Literally how much better is our pitching than theirs........ this argument is completely irrelevant

If you looked a couple posts down, I wrote this:

"Yes, the same goes for us.  But we also don't have Hosmer's contract on the books.  We could use that money for pitching."

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22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

They probably would have been better off putting the money they spent on them, into the offer. 

I don't think it's a matter of the extra money. I think it's more how much they think he is worth. They probably have the money to sign Harper but wouldn't pay the same amount to Machado. They usually seem to follow the rule of paying what the feel a player is worth and not go over that. I don't know what their number is but I bet they have one. If the offer is similar between the two maybe those players on the roster sway him to sign with the Sox.

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20 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Literally how much better is our pitching than theirs........ this argument is completely irrelevant

The Sox minor league pitching is much closer to the MLB though. With Kopech returning in 2020 and Cease going to AAA the Sox have some good arms coming soon. The Padres highly ranked pitching was mostly in A ball last year.

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5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I don't think it's a matter of the extra money. I think it's more how much they think he is worth. They probably have the money to sign Harper but wouldn't pay the same amount to Machado. They usually seem to follow the rule of paying what the feel a player is worth and not go over that. I don't know what their number is but I bet they have one. If the offer is similar between the two maybe those players on the roster sway him to sign with the Sox.

And I would assume this was always the point. I dont think hat signing Jay and Alonso were meant to tip the scales in a huge way, considering Jay signed a 1-year deal, and Alonso has 1-year left on his current deal. I would assume the idea was always, if the Sox offer and say the Padres offer, were the same, then having his friends would tip the scale in our favor. But if the Padres offer is $40 million more, then I dont think having his friends makes up that difference.

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1 minute ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

And I would assume this was always the point. I dont think hat signing Jay and Alonso were meant to tip the scales in a huge way, considering Jay signed a 1-year deal, and Alonso has 1-year left on his current deal. I would assume the idea was always, if the Sox offer and say the Padres offer, were the same, then having his friends would tip the scale in our favor. But if the Padres offer is $40 million more, then I dont think having his friends makes up that difference.

No doubt.

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

If he is signing for the most money, that is $13 million they could have given him. Apparently they don’t need his friends on other teams.

His friends were to cut down on the 'We Suck' Tax. Unfortunatley, the market has played such that there shouldn't be a We Suck Tax.

Edited by mqr
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2 hours ago, hogan873 said:

What would be that "breaking point" of a bad deal?  If Machado ends of signing with the Padres (which I doubt), what's the deal that we say, "Thank God we didn't pay that."?

For me, the easiest thing is it's a bad deal if he has a unilateral opt-out after 2 years. 3 years may be too early too.

When you sign a player to a contract, you're hoping to at least get exactly what you paid for. But for a long term deal, you know it's more likely you end up either doing really well (player outperforms the deal) or very poorly (player is much worse than the deal). If you give an early opt-out, you almost can't do well — if he outperforms the deal, he becomes a free agent and then gets a bigger paycheck — but you're exposed to 100% of the risk of things going badly. For us, you enter the deal knowing that Year 1 is very unlikely to be a championship year so you want him to do well but his performance in that year isn't very important. And so Year 2 is the first year you start to really get a payoff if he outperforms the contract. If you risk losing him after Year 2, then you have practically no upside in the contract. It's not a ton better if he can leave after Year 3.

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1 minute ago, GermanSoxFan said:

With all the smoke yesterday I am prepared for a whole day of nothing today. ?

If the Sox are serious about Machado, then I would actually expect today to be a day of nothing.  Yesterday was a message loud and clear to the Sox -- your current offer isn't the best offer.  So today should be the day that Hahn and Lozano are working behind closed doors to try to get a deal done (or at least top the Padres).

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