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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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2 minutes ago, Quin said:

Man I don't care how much I make, I'm gonna take Zzzquil and forget the flight happened wherever I sit 

I had the pleasure of flying in first class once in my life, when there were empty seats and my aunt who worked for American was able to get me moved up. Let me tell you, it's amazing. Someone about to make hundreds of millions of dollars is going to pop for first class, and he'll take free champagne with his Zzzquil.

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2 minutes ago, Roughneck said:

I had the pleasure of flying in first class once in my life, when there were empty seats and my aunt who worked for American was able to get me moved up. Let me tell you, it's amazing. Someone about to make hundreds of millions of dollars is going to pop for first class, and he'll take free champagne with his Zzzquil.

He wouldn’t even be flying commercial.

He’d be on a private jet

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

What do you think the odds of the Sox signing each individually really is?  20%?  10%?   Now realize that even if you take this as a pure mathetmatical equation and multiply the odds against each other, they are very small.  Add in the payroll factor of the Sox probably not wanting to tie up half a future payroll in two players, and those odds drop even more.

It really is that small.

Here is how I see the suitors for each guy as of now:

Machado: White Sox/Phillies/Yankees/mystery team 

Harper: White Sox/Dodgers/Phillies/mystery team

Algebraically, 1/4 X 1/4 = 1/16 which is 6.25%. That isn't entirely accurate because there are other factors involved like you mentioned, but the Sox have as much, if not more money to spend than the competition and have the luxury of waiting it out. I'm liking the odds of the Sox getting one of them if nothing else, but getting both still isn't out of the question for me.

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Just now, Whitesox27 said:

Here is how I see the suitors for each guy as of now:

Machado: White Sox/Phillies/Yankees/mystery team 

Harper: White Sox/Dodgers/Phillies/mystery team

Algebraically, 1/4 X 1/4 = 1/16 which is 6.25%. That isn't entirely accurate because there are other factors involved like you mentioned, but the Sox have as much, if not more money to spend than the competition and have the luxury of waiting it out. I'm liking the odds of the Sox getting one of them if nothing else, but getting both still isn't out of the question for me.

Nats are on Harper.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Does anyone know how to use Statcast to project how many HR’s Manny would gain or lose playing at the Rate?  I saw someone posted he would have lost like six or so by being a Yankee last year.

How can anything like that be accurate though ? If you are just taking the distance of the HR's it can be done I suppose but but are you taking all HR's he hit at home in Baltimore then the ones he hit in LA? Then try to figure out the pitching difference between playing in a new division. Seems like a waste of time. You know in a good year he will probably hit 35-40 .

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5 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I hate to give Chris Russo any attention, but he did say "Maybe he will end up there in the long run, I have a funny feeling that he might" when talking about Machado taking the most money from the White Sox.
 

 

To answer that Tweet's question, they really don't need either to consider the off-season a success. Moving Santana's contract and getting Segura while not giving up much is a win, moving Hoskins back to 1B is good, McCutchen and Robertson are good additions. Plus, they can add someone like Gio, another reliever (Britton /Kimbrel/Ottavino), and Moustakas as well with the money saved not signing one. I would consider that a great off-season.

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1 minute ago, Whitesox27 said:

Here is how I see the suitors for each guy as of now:

Machado: White Sox/Phillies/Yankees/mystery team 

Harper: White Sox/Dodgers/Phillies/mystery team

Algebraically, 1/4 X 1/4 = 1/16 which is 6.25%. That isn't entirely accurate because there are other factors involved like you mentioned, but the Sox have as much, if not more money to spend than the competition and have the luxury of waiting it out. I'm liking the odds of the Sox getting one of them if nothing else, but getting both still isn't out of the question for me.

So factoring in JUST mathematics  you are talking about 6.25%, and that is only if you assign equal 25% odds to each team, and not believe that NYY has higher odds with Machado, and that Harper has higher odds with LAD, Cubs, or Nats.

At 6% we are talking 1 in 16 odds, meaning 15 out of 16 failures.  Is the difference between 1 and 6% significant enough to really quibble over the odds not being very low?  I'd say if I told you that 15 times out of 16 you would fail at something, the odds were very small of it happening.

Again that doesn't factor in that the first signing will probably be big enough to make the second large contract not worth it to the team payrolls of the future, or that the teams who miss out will run up the bidding past a Sox comfort point even if we signed the first one.

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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

How can anything like that be accurate though ? If you are just taking the distance of the HR's it can be done I suppose but but are you taking all HR's he hit at home in Baltimore then the ones he hit in LA? Then try to figure out the pitching difference between playing in a new division. Seems like a waste of time. You know in a good year he will probably hit 35-40 . 

It's simply looking at the batted ball profile / Statcast info (exit velocity & launch angle) from a given season and seeing if those balls would have likely been HRs at other parks.  And the impact was pretty significant and not in a good direction for the Yankees.

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