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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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9 minutes ago, shipps said:

Umm so I have again convinced myself that Manny is not coming here. It just doesn’t feel right. Chicago fans have been through this before so it looks very familiar to us and it doesn’t end well. 

At the end of the day, I just can't see Manny agreeing to a short term, high AAV deal over a longer term deal.  There's just too much uncertainty with a short term deal and I think he makes the rational decision when the time comes.  I also can't see Bryce signing before Manny.  Boras won't allow it.  That should remove the risk of the Phillies making a large panic offer to Manny.  I remain very confident that the Sox will get this done. 

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1 minute ago, Perfect Vision said:

At the end of the day, I just can't see Manny agreeing to a short term, high AAV deal over a longer term deal.  There's just too much uncertainty with a short term deal and I think he makes the rational decision when the time comes.  I also can't see Bryce signing before Manny.  Boras won't allow it.  That should remove the risk of the Phillies making a large panic offer to Manny.  I remain very confident that the Sox will get this done. 

The problem isn't the uncertainty to me, it's that the only players for his services when the short term deal is up will be the same teams, except Philly will be out, leaving pretty much just the Sox again 

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So I got excited for winter meetings...rumors were flying. I checked Twitter and soxtalk religiously. Days go by I said maybe by the first of the year. Still nothing. I checked this board day in and day out. More rumors coming and excitement comes back...still nothing. A few days before pitchers and catchers report...still nothing. I might have just lost all hope of manny. 

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5 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

At the end of the day, I just can't see Manny agreeing to a short term, high AAV deal over a longer term deal.  There's just too much uncertainty with a short term deal and I think he makes the rational decision when the time comes.  I also can't see Bryce signing before Manny.  Boras won't allow it.  That should remove the risk of the Phillies making a large panic offer to Manny.  I remain very confident that the Sox will get this done. 

And also when push came to shove, this wasn't really a crowded class they were a part of, whose to say the next one is as favorable?

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If I was Lozano, I would have done the exact same thing he's done.  What sense does it make to agree to an offer with the Sox on January 15th when you know that offer is still going to be there on February 15th.  Might as well try to drum up interest with other teams.  There's no downside to that if there's really no risk of the Sox offer being pulled.

But we're reaching the end of the road.  At what point does Lozano wave the white flag and re-engage the Sox to get the deal done.

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27 minutes ago, shipps said:

Umm so I have again convinced myself that Manny is not coming here. It just doesn’t feel right. Chicago fans have been through this before so it looks very familiar to us and it doesn’t end well. 

The longer this goes, the most I slip into this dread-cycle of feeling exactly like this.  I keep feeling like he is just waiting for the offer he actually wants, and that once he gets it, there is no reason for him to come here.  All it takes it one team to finally blink and we lose.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The longer this goes, the most I slip into this dread-cycle of feeling exactly like this.  I keep feeling like he is just waiting for the offer he actually wants, and that once he gets it, there is no reason for him to come here.  All it takes it one team to finally blink and we lose.

I think the offer he actually wants would have come by now if it was going to come at all.

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Really feel sorry for these guys.  Must really suck only getting $250M and not getting to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Cubs.  Sometimes life just isn’t fair I guess.

But actually they do. They can take the big money or a favorable location. If Manny wants less money, I am sure the Dodgers or Yankees will take him.  People all over this country make the same type decisions. Like, do I take more money for a job but I have to relocate my family?  

Difference is either decision Harper or Manny make, financially they are still set for life unless they screw it up. Average person could be making the decision to stay above water. 

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

The longer this goes, the most I slip into this dread-cycle of feeling exactly like this.  I keep feeling like he is just waiting for the offer he actually wants, and that once he gets it, there is no reason for him to come here.  All it takes it one team to finally blink and we lose.

Yeah I've always worried we were trying to too cutely toe the line between top of available market but not too far on top of the available market and it left someone open to make a much bigger offer (that sox would match) but by a team that was more preferred and put sox in position of needing to vastly beat it.

However, I really think that there just aren't many examples of this new operating mode of teams for us to feel like "something is off". That no white knight is coming for harper, manny, kimbrel and keuchel, and they will all basically sign within a few days of each other since they aren't losing money by holding out.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The longer this goes, the most I slip into this dread-cycle of feeling exactly like this.  I keep feeling like he is just waiting for the offer he actually wants, and that once he gets it, there is no reason for him to come here.  All it takes it one team to finally blink and we lose.

There are probably 50 posts by me in this thread saying there's no way he'd turn down a $150 million guarantee for a short term deal and how dumb that would be. If things don't get completed this week, then suddenly that starts seeming possible. 

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Yeah I've always worried we were trying to too cutely toe the line between top of available market but not too far on top of the available market and it left someone open to make a much bigger offer (that sox would match) but by a team that was more preferred and put sox in position of needing to vastly beat it.

However, I really think that there just aren't many examples of this new operating mode of teams for us to feel like "something is off". That no white knight is coming for harper, manny, kimbrel and keuchel, and they will all basically sign within a few days of each other since they aren't losing money by holding out.

Yeah, I am not sure us matching a top offer would give us the win, especially if someone like the Yankees got their act together and decided to give this a shot.

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There are probably 50 posts by me in this thread saying there's no way he'd turn down a $150 million guarantee for a short term deal and how dumb that would be. If things don't get completed this week, then suddenly that starts seeming possible. 

2/19 was when JD Martinez signed, that's still my deadline.

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Machado and Harper also seem to be playing off each other, which is odd since they aren't the same type of player.  But neither wants to blink first.  For instance, if Harper signs for 8/250MM, then Machado could have a bit of a bidding war with the teams that lost out on Harper.

So neither guy wants to be the first to sign, which is just delaying everyone.   

 

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Does anyone know how an agent's commission works on a long term deal?  Does it became guaranteed over the life of the contract even if the agent is fired the day after the contract is signed?  If so, Lozano is going to be steering Manny towards the longer term contract (even though he's ethically obligated to bring every offer to Manny).  A short term deal would be seen as a failure and I think Lozano would be at great risk of being fired, and not cashing in on Manny's next deal.

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6 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Does anyone know how an agent's commission works on a long term deal?  Does it became guaranteed over the life of the contract even if the agent is fired the day after the contract is signed?  If so, Lozano is going to be steering Manny towards the longer term contract (even though he's ethically obligated to bring every offer to Manny).  A short term deal would be seen as a failure and I think Lozano would be at great risk of being fired, and not cashing in on Manny's next deal.

Related question, what purpose does an agent serve after signing a 10 year deal

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2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Related question, what purpose does an agent serve after signing a 10 year deal

Agents are Jacks of all trades. They are lawyers, media relations managers, endorsement engineers, and confidants. And once you sign the big contract, it's kinda like a retainer. That guy is working for you. Legal trouble,  call your agent. Coke wants you in a commercial? They know who to call. 

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