Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[bmags]

Just now, yesterday333 said:

I think I misunderstood what you were trying to say. I thought you were saying if we had that offer out there and he hadn't signed it, then he would probably just take a 1 year deal cuz he didn't want to play with us...

No, not at all, I don't know it would be resolved. I just would feel more comfortable if sox had set themselves up with more room against the rest of the market. They may have! Just shooting the breeze since we have had no real info since early december.

[Perfect Vision]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I’d the Sox are foolish enough to let Machado’s camp believe that they actually will not budge on a sub-200mm dollar contract, then yes, time is not on their side anymore. 

But if they have implied that they will not be outbid, then they should get an opportunity to counter their own offer when Lozano comes to them saying he’s about to short a short term deal for higher AAV. Then, the Sox should move the number up to where it needs to be, knowing confidently that no team is left to outbid them. 

Every year, players and agents fight tooth and nail to "get that additional year."  Just this offseason we saw it with Corbin, Pollock, and now Keuchel.  It's about squeezing the most total money.  Players don't sign short term deals by choice.  If Lozano comes to the Sox saying Manny's considering taking a short term deal, they should resist the urge to laugh and politely tell him that they understand and that their offer is still good.

[Harry Chappas]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Business men dont have come to jesus moments about spending 300 million dollars they didnt plan on spending 1 month ago.

Said perfectly

[Bad Hombre]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

I honestly don't get this point. It may not make sense from a roster building standpoint, it may not make sense from an allocation of resources standpoint, but a business standpoint? 

Was a rebuild a good idea from a "business standpoint"? Was acquiring Joakim Soria's salary to give up less prospects good from a "business standpoint"?

Baseball isn't a comparable business. The purpose of most baseball teams is to be as good as possible without losing cash in the short term while building the value of the franchise longterm when we get down to it. 

Winning can lead to making more money as a franchise but making money as a franchise doesn't lead to winning.

It could be a great asset to the chicago white sox to get Manny Machado at the perfect nexus of the markets demand and not a cent more. But that may come at the cost of not getting Manny Machado.

Not getting Manny Machado spins them into uncertainty of trying to get a substantial bat in their lineup, getting more certainty you can land him may come at a price worth paying.

The sox are not going to lose money on Manny Machado's deal. If that potentially happens they can trade him. 

There is a spending aspect to this, but the idea that there is just a business formula saying paying more than you need to is more costly than the risk of not getting the player is just nonsense to me.

I agree with 100% of what you said. I probably should’ve said it doesn’t make sense from a NEGOTIATING standpoint. Not the best idea to bid against yourself, or start with your best offer. 

[TheTruth05]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The more I think about it, the strategy of "We want you, but only slightly more than anyone else is willing to bid" seems like a tough strategy to win unless you are the favorite destination of the player involved.  That really doesn't say WE WANT YOU.  It doesn't do a lot to woo them.

 

To be fair, if the MM's market is as quiet as it seems to be, then aren't the Sox stuck on their base offer by default possibly?  What does it say about other teams that haven't made a formal offer or even worse, haven't even checked in? 

Edited February 11, 2019 by TheTruth05

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Bad Hombre said:

I agree with 100% of what you said. I probably should’ve said it doesn’t make sense from a NEGOTIATING standpoint. Not the best idea to bid against yourself, or start with your best offer. 

One thing that I'm surprised by (and I can't wait to see if we get a full story of this courting)

Is I thought the sox would start off bidding with a hard aggressive offer, try and sign quick before other teams and maybe have one counterpunch in them before they tapped out. That worried me.

It feels like they actually went with a lower end offer and have just been riding this wave of the teams involved knowing there aren't many bidders (maybe 2) and them playing this prisoners dilemma game where neither wants to nudge each other too much when they can both walk away with a guy.

That's all fun and games until a team like the giants or padres becomes serious and the approach may have turned off the player.

So ultimately I just hope our initial offer is the passan one. I think teams can justify finding $200 mill for a 26 year old, but I think it does hit a point where it required previous planning around 250 pretty quickly.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

One thing that I'm surprised by (and I can't wait to see if we get a full story of this courting)

Is I thought the sox would start off bidding with a hard aggressive offer, try and sign quick before other teams and maybe have one counterpunch in them before they tapped out. That worried me.

It feels like they actually went with a lower end offer and have just been riding this wave of the teams involved knowing there aren't many bidders (maybe 2) and them playing this prisoners dilemma game where neither wants to nudge each other too much when they can both walk away with a guy.

That's all fun and games until a team like the giants or padres becomes serious and the approach may have turned off the player.

So ultimately I just hope our initial offer is the passan one. I think teams can justify finding $200 mill for a 26 year old, but I think it does hit a point where it required previous planning around 250 pretty quickly.

This is exactly my fear. 

[SoxBlanco]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The more I think about it, the strategy of "We want you, but only slightly more than anyone else is willing to bid" seems like a tough strategy to win unless you are the favorite destination of the player involved.  That really doesn't say WE WANT YOU.  It doesn't do a lot to woo them.

 

Adding Alonso and Jay absolutely told Machado that we really want him. And I’m sure the pitch to him when he visited was very impressive. Manny knows how badly we want him. 

Edited February 11, 2019 by SoxBlanco

[Perfect Vision]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

One thing that I'm surprised by (and I can't wait to see if we get a full story of this courting)

Is I thought the sox would start off bidding with a hard aggressive offer, try and sign quick before other teams and maybe have one counterpunch in them before they tapped out. That worried me.

It feels like they actually went with a lower end offer and have just been riding this wave of the teams involved knowing there aren't many bidders (maybe 2) and them playing this prisoners dilemma game where neither wants to nudge each other too much when they can both walk away with a guy.

That's all fun and games until a team like the giants or padres becomes serious and the approach may have turned off the player.

So ultimately I just hope our initial offer is the passan one. I think teams can justify finding $200 mill for a 26 year old, but I think it does hit a point where it required previous planning around 250 pretty quickly.

If the Sox entered this thing prepared to go to $250 mil + if they needed to, and the Giants and Padres did not get into this thing in the beginning because they weren't prepared to go that high, then there's no reason to be worried about them.

Manny isn't going to be upset with the Sox by this process.  The Yankees, yeah he's probably pissed at them.

[Eminor3rd]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The more I think about it, the strategy of "We want you, but only slightly more than anyone else is willing to bid" seems like a tough strategy to win unless you are the favorite destination of the player involved.  That really doesn't say WE WANT YOU.  It doesn't do a lot to woo them.

 

Which, really just depends on how they are defining “slightly more.” If they really are sitting on 7/175, and Machado is disappointed by that, it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith for him to say “if I take 3/120 right now, I am confident that I’ll out earn the back end of the Sox offer in my next deal.”

if they’re sitting on 8/240, that’s a much tougher pill to swallow. 

It depends how hard the Sox are playing this. The closer you fly to the ground, the less margin for error you have. Unfortunately I don’t think there’s any way for anyone, media or otherwise, to know how this is being played. 

[heirdog]

2 hours ago, Orlando said:

 

Ok ready for a private eye post? This dude who’s name is “Eddie Machado” claims to be Manny’s cousin on twitter. Says the deal is done. The picture looks a lot like Machado...

Lol, “Cousin Eddie” is clearly a Vacation fan.  

Next he’ll tweet...”Bet you sure could use a cool one, hey Manny?”

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, heirdog said:

Lol, “Cousin Eddie” is clearly a Vacation fan.  

Next he’ll tweet...”Bet you sure could use a cool one, hey Manny?”

"Happy Spring Training!...shitter was full."

[shipps]

I wonder if the Sox max is 250 mil. Will they go higher if they have to? Maybe they already put out their best offer and stretched with that and are just waiting from here. It’s possible they don’t have another move in this. 

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Which, really just depends on how they are defining “slightly more.” If they really are sitting on 7/175, and Machado is disappointed by that, it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith for him to say “if I take 3/120 right now, I am confident that I’ll out earn the back end of the Sox offer in my next deal.”

if they’re sitting on 8/240, that’s a much tougher pill to swallow. 

It depends how hard the Sox are playing this. The closer you fly to the ground, the less margin for error you have. Unfortunately I don’t think there’s any way for anyone, media or otherwise, to know how this is being played. 

The most telling part is that this isn't done yet.  Though it is impossible to know what is real and what is memorex in this process.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Which, really just depends on how they are defining “slightly more.” If they really are sitting on 7/175, and Machado is disappointed by that, it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith for him to say “if I take 3/120 right now, I am confident that I’ll out earn the back end of the Sox offer in my next deal.”

if they’re sitting on 8/240, that’s a much tougher pill to swallow. 

It depends how hard the Sox are playing this. The closer you fly to the ground, the less margin for error you have. Unfortunately I don’t think there’s any way for anyone, media or otherwise, to know how this is being played. 

Yep, having to kind of stitch together the conservative and aggressive narratives on their offer. Hopefully only a few more days of that.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, shipps said:

I wonder if the Sox max is 250 mil. Will they go higher if they have to? Maybe they already put out their best offer and stretched with that and are just waiting from here. It’s possible they don’t have another move in this. 

If their max is $250 then they weren't really serious about signing him unless he's a bargain which would be disappointing.

If they're doing this right, then they have been biding their time waiting for Machado's side to come back with an offer that is reasonably close to ours. If their side started at $350 and they've dropped down to $340 that's not much movement and no one has offered anything close to that. If the Sox hypothetically had a $250m offer on the table and Machado's side comes back and starts asking about $275, then the White Sox can say "will you sign for something like that today"

[ptatc]

55 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't care a lick if the sox bid against themselves.

You would if they start using that contract as the reason that can't sign the young players to extensions in 6 years.

[bmags]

Just now, ptatc said:

You would if they start using that contract as the reason that can't sign the young players to extensions in 6 years.

The sox have 6 years to find an adequate 3b replacement then that is cheaper, and can trade off manny.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If their max is $250 then they weren't really serious about signing him unless he's a bargain which would be disappointing.

If they're doing this right, then they have been biding their time waiting for Machado's side to come back with an offer that is reasonably close to ours. If their side started at $350 and they've dropped down to $340 that's not much movement and no one has offered anything close to that. If the Sox hypothetically had a $250m offer on the table and Machado's side comes back and starts asking about $275, then the White Sox can say "will you sign for something like that today"

Being the 2nd team to bid a number is a terrible strategy for the White Sox.  Why would Machado pick the 2nd team willing to go to a number, unless they were his first choice all along?

Also, if you believe Rick Hahn, as of Soxfest, the Sox still had no idea what it would actually take to sign Machado, so they have no idea what that "sign today" number actually is.  There is no sticker price posted on the vehicle.

[ptatc]

Just now, bmags said:

The sox have 6 years to find an adequate 3b replacement then that is cheaper, and can trade off manny.

Let's hope they can do that. However, if the contract is 5-7 AAV higher than what the needed to spend because they bid against themselves, will they be able to trade that contract.

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Let's hope they can do that. However, if the contract is 5-7 AAV higher than what the needed to spend because they bid against themselves, will they be able to trade that contract.

Just remember this is 5-7 AAV higher six years from now. Even if the sox have to give an asset, this is not an untenable position.

What puts them in a terrible position is if the bulk of their rebuild doesn't develop, then the one asset they have (manny) will not net much of a return because he is expensive.

[ptatc]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Just remember this is 5-7 AAV higher six years from now. Even if the sox have to give an asset, this is not an untenable position.

What puts them in a terrible position is if the bulk of their rebuild doesn't develop, then the one asset they have (manny) will not net much of a return because he is expensive.

This is the key to everything. Having manny does them no good if Eloy and others don't develop into quality MLB players. The Sox aren't going to build a consistent team through FA.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

This is the key to everything. Having manny does them no good if Eloy and others don't develop into quality MLB players. The Sox aren't going to build a consistent team through FA.

Having Manny also gives them a chance to have a top offense down the road hopefully despite a few guys not living up to their billing.  You can start dreaming of having 3 all stars annually if Yoan and Eloy figure it out.

[shipps]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If their max is $250 then they weren't really serious about signing him unless he's a bargain which would be disappointing.

If they're doing this right, then they have been biding their time waiting for Machado's side to come back with an offer that is reasonably close to ours. If their side started at $350 and they've dropped down to $340 that's not much movement and no one has offered anything close to that. If the Sox hypothetically had a $250m offer on the table and Machado's side comes back and starts asking about $275, then the White Sox can say "will you sign for something like that today"

This would not surprise me if this were the conclusion at the end of all of this. 

[hi8is]

The real question is:

Does Manny prefer the purple grape otter pop flavor... or the blue raspberry option?