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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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This might be a meatheaded question but I wonder how much effort Machado will put forth if he signs with a team for $100M less then he likely anticipated receiving? I think between Harper and Machado we can agree that Machado is the one who might get money-happy and quit giving a fuck. Maybe it happens even earlier if he doesn't get the deal he wanted all along.

Edited by soxfan49
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2 hours ago, shipps said:

I wonder if the Sox max is 250 mil. Will they go higher if they have to? Maybe they already put out their best offer and stretched with that and are just waiting from here. It’s possible they don’t have another move in this. 

I dont think the Sox have a maximum. Or at least their maximum is so high it may as well not be relevant with how the market for Machado has materialized.

What the Sox do have I ***think*** (no direct source, no "guy" in the White Sox FO) is a serious intention to spend as little on Machado as possible because whatever excess value they get out of that contract they can turn around and use to outbid on Harper. Harper is the prize. He was the prize for day 1. That doesn't mean they dont desperately want Machado too, but the ability to sign both informs every offer the White Sox make.

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2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I dont think the Sox have a maximum. Or at least their maximum is so high it may as well not be relevant with how the market for Machado has materialized.

What the Sox do have I ***think*** (no direct source, no "guy" in the White Sox FO) is a serious intention to spend as little on Machado as possible because whatever excess value they get out of that contract they can turn around and use to outbid on Harper. Harper is the prize. He was the prize for day 1. That doesn't mean they dont desperately want Machado too, but the ability to sign both informs every offer the White Sox make.

Based on the Yonder and Jay deals, I think Machado is their main goal. Especially when you factor in the crazy OF depth the Sox have in the minors. 

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3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Based on the Yonder and Jay deals, I think Machado is their main goal. Especially when you factor in the crazy OF depth the Sox have in the minors. 

Exactly. They spent $13 million and a prospect on these two, and despite how some try to spin it, that’s a high price to pay for guys that aren’t going to help you win if they don’t bring Manny with them. Jay hasn’t had a 2.0 fWAR since 2012. Alonso has put up higher than a 1.2 fWAR once in his career.

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6 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Based on the Yonder and Jay deals, I think Machado is their main goal. Especially when you factor in the crazy OF depth the Sox have in the minors. 

Nobody they have in the minors is a good reason to not sign an MVP-level talent like Harper. I like Blake Rutherford a lot, but what are the odds of him becoming Bryce Harper in the majors?

As for Jay and Alonso. The money invested in them is puny compared to even the lowball numbers being discussed in regards to Machado and Harper. Its not like the Sox are doing anything better with those roster spots. I think actually a bit too big a deal has been made of those two acquisitions, personally.

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2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

Nobody they have in the minors is a good reason to not sign an MVP-level talent like Harper. I like Blake Rutherford a lot, but what are the odds of him becoming Bryce Harper in the majors?

As for Jay and Alonso. The money invested in them is puny compared to even the lowball numbers being discussed in regards to Machado and Harper. Its not like the Sox are doing anything better with those roster spots. I think actually a bit too big a deal has been made of those two acquisitions, personally.

Harper won't be able to hold Eloy's jock strap when he arrives. 

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12 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I dont think the Sox have a maximum. Or at least their maximum is so high it may as well not be relevant with how the market for Machado has materialized.

What the Sox do have I ***think*** (no direct source, no "guy" in the White Sox FO) is a serious intention to spend as little on Machado as possible because whatever excess value they get out of that contract they can turn around and use to outbid on Harper. Harper is the prize. He was the prize for day 1. That doesn't mean they dont desperately want Machado too, but the ability to sign both informs every offer the White Sox make.

I tend to agree with this.  @macsandz has, in the past, said Sox feel good about where they are with Bryce.  

The 3 team dog and pony show w Manny in December and in-law/BFF signing makes it hard to “hide in the weeds” on Manny but I think Sox are doing just that with Bryce.  

Alonso and Jay could be as much about recruitment as it is about keeping Manny professional (hustling, saying the right things, etc), something I don’t think teams worry about on Bryce.  

Might have to go 10/310 on Bryce and 8/260 on Manny so one wins total value and the other AAV.  Before we take Rick Hahn at face value on “not the best financial decision to sign both”, let’s not lose the fact we are talking about two HoF type talents in their absolute prime.  I bank on that more than relying on 2 of Robert, Adolfo, Basabe et al coming close to the level of Bryce.

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15 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Harper won't be able to hold Eloy's jock strap when he arrives. 

When he comes up, Eloy's going to be a 22 year old rookie who moved fast through the last levels and had some injury issues last year. Don't be too disappointed if he doesn't live up to this standard immediately.

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37 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

That sure would be nice wouldn't it? I would not count on it though.

And even so, that doesn't solve the problem the Sox have at the other corner spot.

Exactly.  The Sox have a Major Problem at the other OF corner.  The closest thing in the minors to solving it is many years away.  Harper is the prize.   It allows the Sox to trade from that depth instead of depending on it.  It’s the smart play.  

 

Machado is Checkers.  Harper is Chess. 

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29 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

When he comes up, Eloy's going to be a 22 year old rookie who moved fast through the last levels and had some injury issues last year. Don't be too disappointed if he doesn't live up to this standard immediately.

This.

We all fall in love with prospects and I truly think Eloy is the real deal however not all debuts go as planned. I think we all thought Moncada might have some struggles or Giolito or Fulmer, but basically it's more common that prospects fail to live up to their billings, especially in their first cup of tea.

Hate to be Mr. Pessimism - but this is exactly why I think fans that think the Sox have more than a 1% chance of winning the pennant in 2020 are either a bit foolish or too optimistic. You'd have Cease, Kopech and maybe Dunning trying to go through their first season in a rotation. Kopech would likely be on an innings limitation. Likely all guys would be. It's also probably expected those guys would fizzle as the year goes on, and probably fool hearted to expect them to go through a grind of a season AND THEN pitch amazing in the playoffs.

Same with bats... Madrigal, Robert, Adolfo, Collins, etc. would be taking lumps as well. Probably not as bad as pitching, but still guys that are going to have to learn to adjust at the major league level.

I'm still aiming for a 2022 WS run. 2021 would be a very, very, very, successful early run in my book. A lot would have to go perfectly right if we are making REAL noise in 2020 or 2021 (real noise = winning more than 1 game in the ALCS)

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I’ve never been more confident that a prospect will succeed as I am with Eloy. I’ve seen him a good number of times in person, and what’s so impressive about him at the plate, is how much of the plate he can cover. When you see him up to bat, it’s actually incredible that pitchers are able to get the ball by him. Not to say that he will be the AL MVP this season, but he will have immediate success.

Edited by KnightsOnMintSt
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