Machado signs with Padres 10/300

[kevo880]

16 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Rick Hahn so reads Soxtalk after hearing that hahahaha

What did he say that makes you say that?

[Goober]

20 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Rick Hahn so reads Soxtalk after hearing that hahahaha

In that case, Rick please get Harper this year instead and Sale next year. Thanks big guy

[Orlando]

 

 

I thought that was exactly what he said? I guess it was BS.

Edited February 13, 2019 by Orlando

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Kevin Gausmann got $9.35 million in arbitration year 3, not arbitration year 2. 

Anthony Rendon got $18 million in arbitration year 3, not arbitration year 2, and he's been in the top 11 of MVP voting the past 2 seasons. 

 Zach Wheeler is in arbitration year 3 and is a free agent at the end of this year. I'm not even going to look the other ones up because I checked 3 and all 3 of them had the same problem. 

You're comparing guys in different arbitration years to make this look worse. Arbitration year 3 for Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez is 2023.

My point, is the White Sox cannot commit 65 million dollars to two players with the young talent they'll have to pay (arb salaries have been going up up up and in 4 years it wouldn't be shocking to see things similar). Yes, Rendon is good, but expecting one of the young players to become Rendon (who has injury history) isn't absurd nor was it projected as I didn't put anyone anywhere near 18 million. 

Year 2, year 3 - they all matter given the length of contracts being given to Harper and Machado. 

I hear you, and I understand, but the point is the Sox don't have zero salary obligations - or 21 million - in 2021/2022 whatever year. They have to pay guys, and if those guys suck the'll have to pay someone else. 

Edited February 13, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My point, is the White Sox cannot commit 65 million dollars to two players with the young talent they'll have to pay (arb salaries have been going up up up and in 4 years it wouldn't be shocking to see things similar). Yes, Rendon is good, but expecting one of the young players to become Rendon (who has injury history) isn't absurd nor was it projected as I didn't put anyone anywhere near 18 million

If the young players aren't as good as Rendon, they won't earn that much in arbitration. If arbitration costs are becoming a problem in 2021 and 2022, that means we have one hell of a team. There is no way around this.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

If the young players aren't as good as Rendon, they won't earn that much in arbitration. If arbitration costs are becoming a problem in 2021 and 2022, that means we have one hell of a team. There is no way around this.

Say they all get 5 million instead of the 10 million, the Sox still aren't in much better position. They still have very limited funds to fill 15 roster spots. 

You can't commit 65 million to two guys - maybe even 70 million - when your salary ceiling is probably 170ish million, MAYBE 180. 

[Soxnfins]

12 minutes ago, kevo880 said:

What did he say that makes you say that?

"Wetbutt23 (that or reddit), it took a lot of self-control to not say the other one," and "trolling through instagram to see if a certain thing means one thing"

Edited February 13, 2019 by Soxnfins

[Perfect Vision]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Say they all get 5 million instead of the 10 million, the Sox still aren't in much better position. They still have very limited funds to fill 15 roster spots. 

You can't commit 65 million to two guys - maybe even 70 million - when your salary ceiling is probably 170ish million, MAYBE 180. 

You're making an assumption about their salary ceiling.  None of us knows what their plan is.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Say they all get 5 million instead of the 10 million, the Sox still aren't in much better position. They still have very limited funds to fill 15 roster spots. 

You can't commit 65 million to two guys - maybe even 70 million - when your salary ceiling is probably 170ish million, MAYBE 180. 

But many of those players will be guys like Robert, Cease, Collins, Eloy, Vaughn - who won't be hitting arbitration until 2023 or later, and hopefully a couple of our other pitchers will be filling bullpen roles. 

And if Moncada is too expensive, trading Moncada and moving in Madrigal is an option as well. There's no plausible way those costs are a huge problem due to guys reaching arbitration - if they are expensive in those years, it's because we're winning. If they're not winning, then the arbitration costs won't be as high, and some of those guys (Giolito?) are going to be cut loose for replacements (Dunning). 

A much better question is whether or not we want our 2nd big contract to be an outfielder rather than, for example, a starting pitcher next offseason. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But many of those players will be guys like Robert, Cease, Collins, Eloy, Vaughn - who won't be hitting arbitration until 2023 or later, and hopefully a couple of our other pitchers will be filling bullpen roles. 

And if Moncada is too expensive, trading Moncada and moving in Madrigal is an option as well. There's no plausible way those costs are a huge problem due to guys reaching arbitration - if they are expensive in those years, it's because we're winning. If they're not winning, then the arbitration costs won't be as high, and some of those guys (Giolito?) are going to be cut loose for replacements (Dunning). 

The White Sox are not going to be able to supplement all the young players with only two star veterans - it just won't work.

The White Sox have very few salary commitments in 2021 but they also have very few players. 

Honestly, the Sox (ignoring arbitration) would have nearly 100 million dollars tied up in 5 players: (4 if no Herrera and 3 with no Jones). They'd have 85 million locked up on 3 players.

Jones, Herrera, Anderson, Manny and Harper. They would need to fill every other roster spot (20+ guys) for around 70 million. A little over 3 million a player. This doesn't even count Rodon either. It's just not plausible. We'd be going right back to the stars and scrubs nonsense that got us into this rebuild in the first place. 

Edited February 13, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Leonard Zelig]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox are not going to be able to supplement all the young players with only two star veterans - it just won't work.

The White Sox have very few salary commitments in 2021 but they also have very few players. 

Honestly, the Sox (ignoring arbitration) would have nearly 100 million dollars tied up in 5 players: (4 if no Herrera and 3 with no Jones). They'd have 85 million locked up on 3 players.

Jones, Herrera, Anderson, Manny and Harper. They would need to fill every other roster spot (20+ guys) for around 70 million. A little over 3 million a player. This doesn't even count Rodon either. It's just not plausible. We'd be going right back to the stars and scrubs nonsense that got us into this rebuild in the first place. 

Where are you getting the budget numbers you are using?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

You're making an assumption about their salary ceiling.  None of us knows what their plan is.

So you think the White Sox are suddenly going to start outspending the Yankees and Dodgers? The White Sox have never once had a pay higher than 129 million. They were top 5 in payroll (5th) 4 times in the past 15 years. If they return to that, it puts them around 180 million and I am being generous with that ceiling given that they've never had a payroll over 129 million.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox are not going to be able to supplement all the young players with only two star veterans - it just won't work.

The White Sox have very few salary commitments in 2021 but they also have very few players. 

Honestly, the Sox (ignoring arbitration) would have nearly 100 million dollars tied up in 5 players:

Jones, Herrera, Anderson, Manny and Harper. They would need to fill every other roster spot (20+ guys) for around 70 million. A little over 3 million a player. This doesn't even count Rodon either. It's just not plausible. We'd be going right back to the stars and scrubs nonsense that got us into this rebuild in the first place. 

No we will not. The big difference between now and then is that the guys we're bringing in who are pre-arb are Kopech, Cease, Eloy,  Madrigal, Vaughn, Collins, Robert, and the other outfielders. These guys are big time talents. They SHOULD be very different from bringing along guys like an early career Yolmer Sanchez, a broken down John Danks, A Jimmy Rollins - to fill in roles. 

If they systematically bust and Kopech comes out throwing like Mat Latos, then we're in rotten shape and that's a bad thing. These guys should not be scrubs. That's the point. If they are, then we have more evidence about Rick Hahn being awful. Bringing in big time talents should be very different.

[bmags]

With inflation (i'm pretty sure i'll get this wrong) I think our 2011 recent peak salary would be around 145mill, so I typically forecast a top salary of 150 mill.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Where are you getting the budget numbers you are using?

baseball reference salary obligations.

Herrera and Jones have mutual/vesting options. So they are not 100% committed and locked up.

The only person  signed in 2021 for sure, is Tim Anderson.

They will literally have to fill out an entire roster in 2021 and it won't be 22 minor league prospects, Tim Anderson, Byrce and Manny. That will not work.

[Leonard Zelig]

Those are contract numbers.  You seem to think you know what the team budget will be.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

No we will not. The big difference between now and then is that the guys we're bringing in who are pre-arb are Kopech, Cease, Eloy,  Madrigal, Vaughn, Collins, Robert, and the other outfielders. These guys are big time talents. They SHOULD be very different from bringing along guys like an early career Yolmer Sanchez, a broken down John Danks, A Jimmy Rollins - to fill in roles. 

If they systematically bust and Kopech comes out throwing like Mat Latos, then we're in rotten shape and that's a bad thing. These guys should not be scrubs. That's the point.

Sure, but banking on filling your roster with 22 prospects and having them pan out just isn't realistic. They have no one else signed for 2021. They will clearly want to add other pieces. 

The White Sox will be lucky if 6 of their top 20 prospects become average/above average MLB contributors. They need more veterans, and they won't be able to afford them if they sign both.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

With inflation (i'm pretty sure i'll get this wrong) I think our 2011 recent peak salary would be around 145mill, so I typically forecast a top salary of 150 mill.

Now inflate that for 2022/2023 and you're talking $170.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

You're making an assumption about their salary ceiling.  None of us knows what their plan is.

Some assumptions are pretty easy to make. This isn't going to be a franchise that goes past the caps as lon as JR runs things,  which means an absolute top of just over $200 million.  Realistically,  this is a franchise that has never been over $130 million in a season,  so the idea that they are going to suddenly spend 50% more than that seems pretty crazy to me.  At the very least it would need a World Series win to get that kind of revenue flow again. 

[Ben Waffleson]

Is it over yet

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, bmags said:

With inflation (i'm pretty sure i'll get this wrong) I think our 2011 recent peak salary would be around 145mill, so I typically forecast a top salary of 150 mill.

Wasn’t that before a ton national TV deal money came in?  Plus our local TV deal should also increase to some extent just by getting rid of WGN and potentially even more (there unsubstantiated rumors it was doubling).

Honesty, if our ownership truly puts everything back into the team, I think we could probably afford a ~$175M payroll with a modest bump in attendance.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Leonard Zelig said:

Those are contract numbers.  You seem to think you know what the team budget will be.

Well, I'm using a 30+ year sample of Reinsdorf owning the team as my budget. If you think the Chicago White Sox are going to start spending 200 million and competing with the Yankees and Dodgers for the top payroll in MLB then I'm afraid you are going to be one disappointed fan. 

They have operated in the top 5 when they have been successful, which is why I give them 50 extra million than they've ever spent before because they have been in that territory before... but 180 is being very generous. They certainly aren't threatening to outspend the big boys though.

[almagest]

If the Sox believe they can be consistently competitive by signing Bryce and Manny I think they can do it, but they'd have to be at or above the luxury tax threshold. Which is $208 million (and up) starting in 2020. You'd be looking at ~33% of your payroll being occupied by Bryce and Manny, assuming each is at 35 mil/yr. That seems doable while maintaining a competitive team, I just don't know if its smart.

Edited February 13, 2019 by almagest

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Now inflate that for 2022/2023 and you're talking $170.

Salary figures are trending downward in the MLB, so I don't think this is a correct number in the least bit. Payrolls have not been going up with revenue increase - they have stagnated a bit. 

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Now inflate that for 2022/2023 and you're talking $170.

That's true and a decent point for locking in a salary like harper and machado in today's dollars. 

This won't make any sense, but its easier for me to translate this years top salary along with what I would anticipate arb 2 and 3 numbers of our prospects and expected contract amounts for our players in today's dollars to better approximate what roster makejup will be available in 2022 than trying to guess the inflated player values of 2022/3 dollars.