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Machado signs with Padres 10/300


yesterday333

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The correct answer was to rid yourself of the dopes that put you in the position you have to trade Sale and Eaton and Quintana on team friendly deals. Bring in someone with a clue, and let them rebuild.

 

Larry Himes was the greatest rebuilder JR ever hired. He thanked him by firing him. Himes , who apparently is or at least was somewhat of a miserable guy didn't like JR's meddling. And JR didn't like Himes so despite building a team with the lowest payroll that won 94 games and not missing on 1 first round pick even though he didn't have top 5 every year, he was shown the door. If Hahn or KW had that success, they would ride it until a Reinsdorf was no longer involved with the team.

Edited by Dick Allen
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4 minutes ago, pcq said:

Not making excuses but did anyone consider the possibility that a ten-year deal is not an acceptable risk for some teams? I suppose it is a given that the winner usually overpays on these deals even for a younger player.

We aren’t the Dodgers or Yankees but we also aren’t the Rays or Marlins either.  Ten years for top talent is the current standard.  These were two 26 year old future Hall of Famers.  Yes, it was worth the risk.  Who going forward will be more worth signing than these two guys considering their ages, talent, lack of competition for signing them, and timing of the Sox rebuild?

Edited by Harper2Sox
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5 minutes ago, pcq said:

Not making excuses but did anyone consider the possibility that a ten-year deal is not an acceptable risk for some teams? I suppose it is a given that the winner usually overpays on these deals even for a younger player.

In the fangraphs valuations Machado has been worth $50 million for 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Those years at the end of a contract are a way for the team to spread the risk later, without having to offer him $200 million over the next 4. They help the team in a deal like this: you want the player now but you don’t want to pay that price per WAR right now.

Machado and Harper are unique in that their ages drop the risk in those later years even more.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Obviously stop doing the things you do best, start doing the things you do worst, but only half way, and then come in second for top free agents.  This is a great formula.

 

LOL.

I really thought that organizationally they had changed, but this is spot on. 

I'm not sure what they did best though. I think people overrated how successful their pitching development was by 2015. Their pro scouting, which was truly top of the league in the 00s, had become inept as the aging curves became more pronounced. As we saw, their bargain bin free agency hunting was terrible, but they also were terrified to give shots to guys off the waiver wire that were likely to give equal production.

They definitely when faced with jumpstarting the org did not revamp anything, they just tweaked it and may have moved from worst in league to below average.

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Obviously stop doing the things you do best, start doing the things you do worst, but only half way, and then come in second for top free agents.  This is a great formula.

 

Over the past 6 years, I have “signing pre arbitration guys to below market deals” as the one thing they have done well. Without any pre arb guys coming up after Anderson, there’s no one else they could do that with.

Have they done anything else well?

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Forgive me if this question has already been asked/answered, but is there any documented proof that the Sox actually offered Machado a deal worth $250M guaranteed? I'm not privy to the contract negotiations process in MLB, but if the "offers" being reported consist of GMs and agents talking over the phone (the contents of which are then leaked to the media), what's to stop a front office from releasing false information? I've been following this organization for a long time, and I have a difficult time believing that Reinsdorf would commit $200M to any player, much less $250M. Furthermore, Reinsdorf is what, 82 now? If he's likely to sell the team at some point in the next 2-3 years, why would he want an extra $200M+ of liabilities on the books during that sale? That doesn't make sense.

 

Edited by Black_Jack29
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3 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Not to bring up old stuff but I think it's finally safe to say the Sox were leaking 7/175. As dumb as it sounds.

That sounds more like a realistic Reinsdorf-approved offer than $250M. It makes more sense to me that JR would throw out a lowball $175M offer than a more competitive $250M offer because I don't think that he actually wanted to sign Machado. This whole thing seems like a hey-fans-we-tried PR stunt that, given how bad the Sox front office is at PR, went bad.

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18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Over the past 6 years, I have “signing pre arbitration guys to below market deals” as the one thing they have done well. Without any pre arb guys coming up after Anderson, there’s no one else they could do that with.

Have they done anything else well?

I think definitely still top 10 in health.

I actually think their bullpen scouting could be above average.

That is my best.

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I understood the "no magic number" comment to mean that they might give 10 years and 300 to somebody, just not Manny Machado. That might be just be a weasely way of saying if they got 100 million discount on Mike Trout they'd take it, but also might mean that perhaps they're not as high on Machado as some other players in the same tier.

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All I'm waiting for now is to hear Hahn thought Lozano was bluffing about there being a higher offer, while KW was adamant they should go higher (or vice versa).  Something definitely strange took place, as I can't imagine KW saying how pissed off he was if it was simply not being able to hit the 300 mark.

Edited by fathom
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22 minutes ago, Jake said:

I understood the "no magic number" comment to mean that they might give 10 years and 300 to somebody, just not Manny Machado. That might be just be a weasely way of saying if they got 100 million discount on Mike Trout they'd take it, but also might mean that perhaps they're not as high on Machado as some other players in the same tier.

If they weren't high on Machado, then for what reason did they pay 13 million dollars to Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay?

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5 minutes ago, fathom said:

All I'm waiting for now is to hear Hahn thought Lozano was bluffing about there being a higher offer, while KW was adamant they should go higher (or vice versa).  Something definitely strange took place, as I can't imagine KW saying how pissed off he was if it was simply not being able to hit the 300 mark.

My no sauces take is that KW was being aggressive and telling them to offer more money. Hahn was trying to show everyone he is a wunderkind negotiator.

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18 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

This whole thing seems like a hey-fans-we-tried PR stunt that, given how bad the Sox front office is at PR, went bad.

It wouldn't be terribly surprising. We "tried", now bugger off, whiny ass fanbase. It certainly wouldn't be a new trick from this front office. Why has any mention of Harper been replaced by tumbleweeds? That money was supposedly going to be spent. I recognize Machado was the better long-term fit, but Harper improves your lineup as well. 

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1 minute ago, reiks12 said:

I thought it was reported that Reinsdorf was in charge of the negotiations? 

JR may have been. Think of it like old cartoons, Angel on one shoulder, devil on the other. You got KW saying "spend". Youve got Hahn saying "lets offer a sneaky contract that limits our liability 9 years from now."

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6 minutes ago, Swingandalongonetoleft said:

It wouldn't be terribly surprising. We "tried", now bugger off, whiny ass fanbase. It certainly wouldn't be a new trick from this front office. Why has any mention of Harper been replaced by tumbleweeds? That money was supposedly going to be spent. I recognize Machado was the better long-term fit, but Harper improves your lineup as well. 

My guess is that it's generally accepted that Harper is going to be more expensive than Machado. And if the Sox were out-bid on Machado, they basically have no prayer of landing Harper.

I want to see evidence of this $250M offer to Machado. Because it makes no sense to me that known-cheapskate owner JR, who has never spent more than $68M on a player, was suddenly willing to offer Machado almost four times that.

Edited by Black_Jack29
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