Sox steamer projections for pitching

[southsider2k5]

 

[Balta1701]

Our actual starting 5 projected for 4.3.

I do feel like their system has overprojected Kopech's 1.6 fWAR if he pitched 200 innings 6 months after Tommy John Surgery.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Our actual starting 5 projected for 4.3.

I do feel like their system has overprojected Kopech's 1.6 fWAR if he pitched 200 innings 6 months after Tommy John Surgery.

It is insane for thinking that no starter would fall below 4.47 and above 5.42 era if they pitched 200 IP.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is insane for thinking that no starter would fall below 4.47 and above 5.42 era if they pitched 200 IP.

There's ways to build computer systems that don't produce stupid answers even if it returns some valuable answers. Because of the level of stupid answers in that chart I'm less confident in its ability to return quality ones. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's ways to build computer systems that don't produce stupid answers even if it returns some valuable answers. Because of the level of stupid answers in that chart I'm less confident in its ability to return quality ones. 

Projection systems don't know to project for young players unfortunately, so no one should overreact to these numbers anyways.

[elrockinMT]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

There's ways to build computer systems that don't produce stupid answers even if it returns some valuable answers. Because of the level of stupid answers in that chart I'm less confident in its ability to return quality ones. 

I can get better answers at the Barber Shop as follows

Answers.....,,.........,,,,,,... $1.00

Answers that require thought ...,,$2.00

correct Answers ...........  $4.00

Dumb looks still free

 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by elrockinMT

[Dominikk85]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Projection systems don't know to project for young players unfortunately, so no one should overreact to these numbers anyways.

They do have algorithms for minor leaguers but there is a lot more uncertainty and they tend to be conservative on prospects unless they go bonkers in the minors at a young age like vlad jr.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

They do have algorithms for minor leaguers but there is a lot more uncertainty and they tend to be conservative on prospects unless they go bonkers in the minors at a young age like vlad jr.

Not just minor leaguers, but also guys in their first or second major league season.  Lopez would be a perfect example of a guy who I expect to take big leap in year 2 and blow his steamer projection out of the water.  

[Chisoxfn]

Would anyone really be shocked if the Sox had one of the worst starting rotations in baseball?  I mean they had the 2nd worst starting pitching ERA in baseball a year ago.  Really the only favorable rotational stat for the Sox was that they had the 8th highest QS% ratio in all of baseball, which could theoretically be a reason for optimism as it would point to the fact that consistency is key and that as the players mature they will actually improve.

If I were a betting man, I certainly wouldn't be predicting the Sox to even have a league average starting pitching staff (at this point) and would likely bet that they would be in the bottom 3rd.  Lopez & Rodon are solid to good. I don't think they are worse than that and maybe they can be better (i'm ignoring injuries).  The whole rest of the current staff, I literally have zero expectation for. Giolito was so bad I couldn't possibility put money on him being great. Nova is a back of the rotation guy with marginal upside at best and Covey was awful last year (outside of limited spurts) so I really couldn't project anything better.

It is why if the Sox spend all this money on Harper/Machado, I'm curious to see if they will start to trade some guys to bolster the rotation.    

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Would anyone really be shocked if the Sox had one of the worst starting rotations in baseball?  I mean they had the 2nd worst starting pitching ERA in baseball a year ago.  Really the only favorable rotational stat for the Sox was that they had the 8th highest QS% ratio in all of baseball, which could theoretically be a reason for optimism as it would point to the fact that consistency is key and that as the players mature they will actually improve.

If I were a betting man, I certainly wouldn't be predicting the Sox to even have a league average starting pitching staff (at this point) and would likely bet that they would be in the bottom 3rd.  Lopez & Rodon are solid to good. I don't think they are worse than that and maybe they can be better (i'm ignoring injuries).  The whole rest of the current staff, I literally have zero expectation for. Giolito was so bad I couldn't possibility put money on him being great. Nova is a back of the rotation guy with marginal upside at best and Covey was awful last year (outside of limited spurts) so I really couldn't project anything better.

It is why if the Sox spend all this money on Harper/Machado, I'm curious to see if they will start to trade some guys to bolster the rotation.    

If the White Sox signed one of those guys and then added Keuchel, the best remaining pitcher on the FA market, I would still say that this is one of the bottom of the league starting rotations. It would be 2015 White Sox foolish to add a Harper or Machado and then make a move like that thinking that this is a competitive roster with that rotation. Bolstering the rotation in 2019 will do very little to improve the roster and it will require a high cost because you'll have to pay for someone who was better than Covey last year and there are only a handful of guys available who meet that standard. The thing that should actually make a difference is not the FA market, or even the trade market, it is the combination of Kopech, Cease, and Dunning hopefully all arriving in 2020, and development of Lopez and hopefully Giolito or others this year and next. We need that lineup to start looking like a strong rotation in 2020 and 2021. 

[Dominikk85]

Lopez needs to throw more sliders and less fastballs, that slider is a good pitch.

60% fastballs is too much, his fb is ok but not really good.

He definitely needs to improve his k rate if he wants to repeat last years ERA.

[maggliopipe]

I love what Lopez did down stretch last year. Through July, he had a 1.56 K/BB ratio. August and September (all late season, expanded roster caveats aside) it was 3.25. He seemed like a dude who just decided to stop fucking around, get a plan, and execute the hell out of it. Maybe it will prove to be nothing more than a late season blip, but I've got high hopes. Sure as hell I expect a FIP below 5.12!

[Balta1701]

44 minutes ago, maggliopipe said:

I love what Lopez did down stretch last year. Through July, he had a 1.56 K/BB ratio. August and September (all late season, expanded roster caveats aside) it was 3.25. He seemed like a dude who just decided to stop fucking around, get a plan, and execute the hell out of it. Maybe it will prove to be nothing more than a late season blip, but I've got high hopes. Sure as hell I expect a FIP below 5.12!

Interestingly, the brief stretch of really good pitching that Giolito had also correlated with the best velocity he threw during the year. In July and August, his average fastball was nearly 2 mph faster than at the start of the season, and then during the last month when he went back to getting shelled he lost that velocity. My thought at the time was that Giolito hit a dead-arm wall, and that we were watching a young pitcher who was developing the conditioning on his arm. I have at least some hope for improvement from him next year if he could get his fastball velocity up sooner and hold it for longer, but who knows.

[zisk]

       The 1 thing that will make the Sox good in 2020 is bringing up 7-8 talented relievers in 2019 and let them take their lumps. We probably have 

more quality relief prospects than any team in baseball. With Dunning, Kopech, Cease and others joining the rotation in 2020, pitching could soon be

a strength.

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by zisk

[Chicago White Sox]

Very 

2 hours ago, maggliopipe said:

I love what Lopez did down stretch last year. Through July, he had a 1.56 K/BB ratio. August and September (all late season, expanded roster caveats aside) it was 3.25. He seemed like a dude who just decided to stop fucking around, get a plan, and execute the hell out of it. Maybe it will prove to be nothing more than a late season blip, but I've got high hopes. Sure as hell I expect a FIP below 5.12!

Very nice post!!

[chitownsportsfan]

Yikes.  Some ignorance in this thread.  All the projections are heavily regressed to the mean.  No system is going to project variance you see IRL.  Is what it is.

ZIPS had CHW as the worst rotation in baseball in spring least year, how'd that work out for us?

Fact of the matter is that Lopez and Giolito were bad last year by DIPS theory.  You can quibble with DIPS all you want but it's the best system we have for projecting pitchers.   You can think Mark Buehrles grow on trees but they are outliers to DIPS, not the rule and Buehrle was a generational fielder at his position that from some estimates was worth about 10 runs a year or 1 WAR.

The rotation is going to suck next year most likely.  

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yikes.  Some ignorance in this thread.  All the projections are heavily regressed to the mean.  No system is going to project variance you see IRL.  Is what it is.

ZIPS had CHW as the worst rotation in baseball in spring least year, how'd that work out for us?

Fact of the matter is that Lopez and Giolito were bad last year by DIPS theory.  You can quibble with DIPS all you want but it's the best system we have for projecting pitchers.   You can think Mark Buehrles grow on trees but they are outliers to DIPS, not the rule and Buehrle was a generational fielder at his position that from some estimates was worth about 10 runs a year or 1 WAR.

The rotation is going to suck next year most likely.  

Yikes...

[GenericUserName]

4 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Would anyone really be shocked if the Sox had one of the worst starting rotations in baseball?  I mean they had the 2nd worst starting pitching ERA in baseball a year ago.  Really the only favorable rotational stat for the Sox was that they had the 8th highest QS% ratio in all of baseball, which could theoretically be a reason for optimism as it would point to the fact that consistency is key and that as the players mature they will actually improve.

If I were a betting man, I certainly wouldn't be predicting the Sox to even have a league average starting pitching staff (at this point) and would likely bet that they would be in the bottom 3rd.  Lopez & Rodon are solid to good. I don't think they are worse than that and maybe they can be better (i'm ignoring injuries).  The whole rest of the current staff, I literally have zero expectation for. Giolito was so bad I couldn't possibility put money on him being great. Nova is a back of the rotation guy with marginal upside at best and Covey was awful last year (outside of limited spurts) so I really couldn't project anything better.

It is why if the Sox spend all this money on Harper/Machado, I'm curious to see if they will start to trade some guys to bolster the rotation.    

I would be surprised if we don't have one of the worst starting rotations in baseball next year. 

[chitownsportsfan]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yikes...

You're not worth the skin off my rhetorical knuckles junior.  If you got something to say, an argument to make, make it.  Hope in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up faster.  On paper, this rotation sucks ass, once again.  

Look, I hope Lopez and Gio and all the other guys get hotter than shit and prove me wrong.  I hope Gio turns into a right handed Tom Glavine and Lopez is Alex Fernandez without injuries but FFS don't "Yikes" me with that horse shit.

Multiquote is absolute trash on this shit or I'd ether you more.  Here, just look at these projections from last year.  If anything the projections were too optimistic by far.  Now that they have more data on our guys' suck, well, they expect them to suck more.  Go figure.

Edited January 5, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You're not worth the skin off my rhetorical knuckles junior.  If you got something to say, an argument to make, make it.  Hope in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up faster.  On paper, this rotation sucks ass, once again.  

Look, I hope Lopez and Gio and all the other guys get hotter than shit and prove me wrong.  I hope Gio turns into a right handed Tom Glavine and Lopez is Alex Fernandez without injuries but FFS don't "Yikes" me with that horse shit.

Multiquote is absolute trash on this shit or I'd ether you more.  Here, just look at these projections from last year.  If anything the projections were too optimistic by far.  Now that they have more data on our guys' suck, well, they expect them to suck more.  Go figure.

Lol...let’s give someone the internet tough guy of the day award!  

But getting back to the point, my argument was projection systems don’t know how to project for young players.  I never said anything about our players other than I expect Lopez to blow his Steamer projection out of the water.  Since you’re an expert on projection systems, what is the MAPE for a guy in his first two seasons relative to a guy five years deep?  Pick whatever system you like, do you really think the MAPEs would be the same?  Unlike you, I’ll withhold judgment until I hear what you have to say.

[chitownsportsfan]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...let’s give someone the internet tough guy of the day award!  

But getting back to the point, my argument was projection systems don’t know how to project for young players.  I never said anything about our players other than I expect Lopez to blow his Steamer projection out of the water.  Since you’re an expert on projection systems, what is the MAPE for a guy in his first two seasons relative to a guy five years deep?  Pick whatever system you like, do you really think the MAPEs would be the same?  Unlike you, I’ll withhold judgment until I hear what you have to say.

It prodded you out of one word replies so it worked.   There's no doubt that the projections work better and the error bars narrow with more data: but I don't see any reason to expect the Sox to outperform their projection as a rotation other than hope. 

 I'm not a pure stats guy by any means and I certainly played my share of ball growing up, including low level college.  I get that players are not machines and that breakthroughs happen.   But I don't see breakthroughs on this staff.  If we want to go all meathead I'll be the 1st guy to say that I think Giolito is a 10 cent head and a headcase.  Reminds me of myself when I played honestly.  I'll also say I think that Lopez has an inner fire and resolve that serves him well.  But, that could easily be confirmation bias stemming from an unsustainable strand rate and HR%.  A few more balls fall in or go over the fence and who knows what I think about his "inner resolve".  But for now I believe it.  But Lopez has real problems missing bats and sustaining his velocity, regardless of any inner fire or fortitude.

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[Chisoxfn]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If the White Sox signed one of those guys and then added Keuchel, the best remaining pitcher on the FA market, I would still say that this is one of the bottom of the league starting rotations. It would be 2015 White Sox foolish to add a Harper or Machado and then make a move like that thinking that this is a competitive roster with that rotation. Bolstering the rotation in 2019 will do very little to improve the roster and it will require a high cost because you'll have to pay for someone who was better than Covey last year and there are only a handful of guys available who meet that standard. The thing that should actually make a difference is not the FA market, or even the trade market, it is the combination of Kopech, Cease, and Dunning hopefully all arriving in 2020, and development of Lopez and hopefully Giolito or others this year and next. We need that lineup to start looking like a strong rotation in 2020 and 2021. 

If this is the Sox plan...contend in 2021 then I don’t see how they are going to keep Manny and / or Harper happy. I flat out think they need to be looking to move some prospects for cost controlled quality pitchers if they are ready. Whether now or in season. You don’t hand 300 million dollar contracts with visions of contending in a number of years.

Then again I’m probably the least optimistic person of anyone right now as it relates to how this team is currently positioned. Jiminez and Yoan actually becoming studs would quickly change some of that dynamic but I won’t count things before they hatch. 

[Nardiwashere]

These projections are silly and tell us nothing.  If anyone thinks no one in the rotation will have an ERA under 4.68, they just get off on being negative.  

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

If this is the Sox plan...contend in 2021 then I don’t see how they are going to keep Manny and / or Harper happy. I flat out think they need to be looking to move some prospects for cost controlled quality pitchers if they are ready. Whether now or in season. You don’t hand 300 million dollar contracts with visions of contending in a number of years.

Then again I’m probably the least optimistic person of anyone right now as it relates to how this team is currently positioned. Jiminez and Yoan actually becoming studs would quickly change some of that dynamic but I won’t count things before they hatch. 

Assuming they land 1 and not both...then for this team to be really good, >> 90 win good, we're talking 2021 and there's no way around it after Kopech's arm. If they're ok with mid 80s wins being good enough, with some upside and maybe a legit shot at a wild card run, 2020 is possible, but they're not going to be loaded like the real good teams unless everything suddenly goes right with player development, as you note. 

The real danger is that they'll land one of them, wind up with a team that in 2019 and 2020 on paper should produce wins in the 70's, and then decide to sacrifice the future because they have to win with one of those guys, and wind up peaking at something like 80-82 wins because they traded away guys they shouldn't and signed guys from the terrible part of the free agent market. That's pulling the classic  Rick Hahn Special and convincing themselves they are ready to win because they have one or two big names, while ignoring  or trying to paper over the weaknesses on their roster. Or in other words, the real danger is that they'll do what the White Sox constantly have done before. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Assuming they land 1 and not both...then for this team to be really good, >> 90 win good, we're talking 2021 and there's no way around it after Kopech's arm. If they're ok with mid 80s wins being good enough, with some upside and maybe a legit shot at a wild card run, 2020 is possible, but they're not going to be loaded like the real good teams unless everything suddenly goes right with player development, as you note. 

The real danger is that they'll land one of them, wind up with a team that in 2019 and 2020 on paper should produce wins in the 70's, and then decide to sacrifice the future because they have to win with one of those guys, and wind up peaking at something like 80-82 wins because they traded away guys they shouldn't and signed guys from the terrible part of the free agent market. That's pulling the classic  Rick Hahn Special and convincing themselves they are ready to win because they have one or two big names, while ignoring  or trying to paper over the weaknesses on their roster. Or in other words, the real danger is that they'll do what the White Sox constantly have done before. 

Basically, doing the same thing the next two offseasons as this one...eventually, they’re going to have to put their careers on the line and sign guys who are “part of the core” for 2021/22 and beyond.

Right now, there are only Moncada (2023), Anderson (2024) and Jimenez...you can include López and Kopech if you want, but that’s still a ton of uncertainty.   If you went into Year 3 of the Cubs or Astros rebuilds, you could’ve envisioned roughly 40-50% of their playoff rosters at that point.