Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I think you're getting too hung up on one statistic, though (with catch probability and outs above average essentially being the same stat). I'm not big on publicly available defensive metrics in the first place because there are so many extenuating factors that go into defense. 

For starters, Fangraphs isn't as down on Pederson defensively as Statcast seems to be. Perhaps he isn't making tough catches because he has the benefit of playing next to guys like Cody Bellinger, who Statcast had as a 6 outs above average outfielder. 

At the end of the day, I understand wanting to help our young pitching staff by minimizing mistakes in the outfield, but at some point, contributing to scoring runs also helps the young pitching staff, and Pederson is worlds ahead of Engel in that category. The only defensive stats that I really put a lot of weight in are framing stats for catchers and range stats for middle infielders, I simply don't trust the algorithms behind any others. Outs above average and catch probability are interesting new concepts but could also be better served by more time and data points to work with. 

It just seemed to be the best one I can find that uses more than just speed since it also takes into account reads and jumps.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ?  And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof.

This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good.

As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.

 

 

We don't REALLY need Castillo, Herrera, Colome, McCann, Nova, Alonso or Jay, either (nearing 30% of the roster)...but we have them now, so the ONLY thing that makes sense is trying to ramp up to competitiveness as quickly as possible with Machado in a limited window AS LONG AS it doesn't hurt your long-term (and you can argue trading Bush for Pederson on both sides) 2021-2024 window.

That's already seven TYPICAL "win now/all-in" moves when they're adding Tier B/C veteran players in an attempt to build around the Core 4.

The only difference is there's no headliner, like a Frazier or Samardzija or Cabrera/Robertson.

Heck, Jeff Keppinger 2013 would fit in quite well with this collection of talent.  

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The White Sox have prioritized defense, though...with the Madrigal pick.  They could have taken Bohm and "solved" their generational-long 3B issue, right?   (Well, we can argue about Burger, but that's another story.)

At any rate, without Machado, then trading for Pederson likely makes no sense.

In that situation, you can play guys like Yolmer, Leury, Engel and Palka to your heart's content as we finish with 65-69 wins.

  

If they DO sign Machado eventually...especially with a 3-4 year opt-out, then they suddenly have to do everything to maximize their window with him, within reason, of course.

That means Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez added to a corner OR trading for someone like Pederson to pair with Jon Jay in the outfield.

Another veteran starting pitcher (preferably LHP) to round out the rotation (if it's not Hill).

Shocking the world and also signing Kimbrel for 1-2 years (this one, far and away, is the most unlikely).

 

 

At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB.

Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. 

The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

43 minutes ago, daggins said:

Here's the thing about defense: the White Sox don't care.

They've shown this with their player personnel decisions, with free agent acquisitions, and, well, with how prospects arrive when they first get to Chicago. The White Sox simply do not prioritize defense in their decisions.

This is not entirely indefensible (heh) as one of the most valid criticisms, to my mind, of the rise of sabermetrics is an overemphasis on poorly defined and unreliable defensive metrics, but lets not pretend that Pederson's defense is going to stop the Sox from trading for him or from playing him in CF as much as possible.

Well it might ve been lip service but Hahn did say if there was one thing he can guarantee it would better defense in 2019. I'm paraphrasing but I'm sure of it.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB.

Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. 

The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders. 

AH the old Sox could extent him line. That happens so much . Extend him because the current climate   of our prospects in the future OF are so dismal ?

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB.

Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. 

The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders. 

I don't disagree.  Markakis was the best name out there, and he signed for a pittance due to his age and comfort level.

Pederson, Jay and Jimenez make the most sense, at least for now.  That could change again at mid-season.

You also can't risk trotting Palka out there 140 games if you're serious about contending unless Rusty Kuntz (Alex Gordon's coach) has been tutoring him all off-season long.  (I don't ever recall the White Sox coaching magically "coaching up" someone who wasn't suited for the OF in the last 10-15 years, through many attempts.)

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

AH the old Sox could extent him line. That happens so much . Extend him because the current climate   of our prospects in the future OF are so dismal ?

I think he meant on the FA market, where Jones and CarGo and Valencia are the best RF options left.

Not in the sense that we literally have seven Top 15 level prospects who happen to play the same position/s.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ?  And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof.

This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good.

As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.

 

 

Sure, in his career in CF his total zone rating is -3 and his zone rating per 1200 innnings in the field is -1. He's a league average center fielder by zone rating in his career (which is a much better sample for fielding metrics than any individual season) His UZR rating for his career is -2.1 (so similar) which makes him league average in center again. Over 5 years his DRS is -13 which - once agian - is league average. 

Every single thing about Pederson says he's a league average center fielder when you look at his entire career.

As for your final point; the "best shape of his life" nonsense is exactly that - complete nonsense. This is the time of year where all these guys show up in the best shape of their lives (there will be 20+ articles written about random players stating such) this spring training and those guys will be the same baseball players they were prior to their weight loss... Why? Because Palka isn't a bad defender because he's fat, he's bad because he has a noodle arm, and gets horrendous reads and jumps on baseballs. His path to the ball always looks so unnatural too him; he never looks comfortable. He looks like Hanley Ramirez every time a ball was hit off the monster. 

As for what is the point of 2 years of Pederson? Because winning baseball games eventually matters and putting out a MLB product to assist/compliment the youthful core is really important. Because people do pay to watch the product, and putting out the absolute worst of the worst for 5 years is simply unacceptable. 

[fathom]

 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

 

Could see it. Ender had a down year and could shift to a bench role or traded.

[fathom]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

Could see it. Ender had a down year and could shift to a bench role or traded.

It's been rumored for a while that they would be open to trading Ender.  Could totally see the Indians wanting Inciarte.

[bschmaranz]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

It's been rumored for a while that they would be open to trading Ender.  Could totally see the Indians wanting Inciarte.

Speaking of Cleveland, why are the Indians not in on Joc?  He's almost too perfect for them.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ?  And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof.

This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good.

As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.

 

 

I'm not here to win the internet; I'm here to present my opinion. I'm not here to rally troops; I used Rowand as an example because he had two of the best defensive CF seasons in the modern metric era, and he wasn't a speed demon and the fans of this board are familiar with him. I could use Jim Edmonds as well, if that would make you feel better. He - although overrated IMO defensively - is still one of the best defensive CF'ers in the modern era, and no one would classify Edmonds as fast. Anyone who watched both of them understood that. 

Sure, speed helps - in a lot of cases, it helps cover up for other deficiencies and gives you more margin for error; similarly to throwing harder than not.... but to use Sprint Speed on the bases as a determining factor into a guys defensive prowess is just misguided and far too simplistic. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure, in his career in CF his total zone rating is -3 and his zone rating per 1200 innnings in the field is -1. He's a league average center fielder by zone rating in his career (which is a much better sample for fielding metrics than any individual season) His UZR rating for his career is -2.1 (so similar) which makes him league average in center again. Over 5 years his DRS is -13 which - once agian - is league average. 

Every single thing about Pederson says he's a league average center fielder when you look at his entire career.

It seems very clear when I look at Pederson's statistics that the player he was in 2015 and 2016 has very little to do with the fielder he is in 2017 and 2018. In 2018 overall in the OF, he was a -18, and in 2017 it was -17 - that's 17 runs below average over a full season and that's counting all the OF positions.

You're correct that he was a decent defensive CF earlier in his career, but you're missing the story if you swamp out his really poor last 2 years with the remainder of his career. UZR shows the same thing, a guy who was average earlier in his career but who has gotten substantially worse starting in 2017.

[Fuagman]

Ender>Joc. Ender is a GG centerfielder with elite speed. They’re not replacing ender with Joc, that is such an absurd take

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We don't REALLY need Castillo, Herrera, Colome, McCann, Nova, Alonso or Jay, either (nearing 30% of the roster)...but we have them now, so the ONLY thing that makes sense is trying to ramp up to competitiveness as quickly as possible with Machado in a limited window AS LONG AS it doesn't hurt your long-term (and you can argue trading Bush for Pederson on both sides) 2021-2024 window.

That's already seven TYPICAL "win now/all-in" moves when they're adding Tier B/C veteran players in an attempt to build around the Core 4.

The only difference is there's no headliner, like a Frazier or Samardzija or Cabrera/Robertson.

Heck, Jeff Keppinger 2013 would fit in quite well with this collection of talent.  

 

You're right we don't need them well except as lures for Machado and the relief pitchers to support the young staff. So yes I support the lures and the pitchers and I don't support another lousy defensive future 1st baseman clogging up the OF. That doesn't make me a criminal Yes on Machado No on Pederson. Yes on defense and our young talented starting pitching. No on giving up any minor league talent for 2 year players.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I think he meant on the FA market, where Jones and CarGo and Valencia are the best RF options left.

Not in the sense that we literally have seven Top 15 level prospects who happen to play the same position/s.

They're prospects; outside of Eloy, if any of the other outfield prospects accumulate 10.1 fWAR in 4 seasons I would be ecstatic. You'd rather have a depth problem by bringing in Joc, than a lack of success problem by surpassing on above average MLB players to save a spot for Blake Rutherford who you hope figures it out. If it turns out that you get a log jam of talent - a good problem to have - you then have an avenue of strength and depth you can trade from to improve the parts of your team that didn't work out as well. 

There's a reason you never EVER draft for positional need in MLB, and that's because prospects aren't guaranteed, and depth is really really important; and organizational depth is what separates the great organizations from the one year and no year wonders.

[oldsox]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

If they acquired Pederson, I would assume that he would play a corner OF and Jay would be in CF. After seeing the really poor defensive metrics on Joc, I'm wondering if Palka might end up being just as good as he is. Palka has lost 15 pounds, has a good arm, and runs pretty well. I assume he now runs even better than last year, now that he is lighter. He has been working hard on his defense, and he might surprise us. 

In any case, Engel would be a good late inning defensive replacement. He could take over in CF, and Jay could move to the corner, to replace Palka. 

Pederson would play, Jay would sit.

[bschmaranz]

2 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Pederson would play, Jay would sit.

Who's the 3rd outfielder then?  Pederson, ELoy, __________?

[southsider2k5]

33 minutes ago, fathom said:

by trading the #4 pick and Carmelo Anthony for the #3 pick

And the cash.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It seems very clear when I look at Pederson's statistics that the player he was in 2015 and 2016 has very little to do with the fielder he is in 2017 and 2018. In 2018 overall in the OF, he was a -18, and in 2017 it was -17 - that's 17 runs below average over a full season and that's counting all the OF positions.

You're correct that he was a decent defensive CF earlier in his career, but you're missing the story if you swamp out his really poor last 2 years with the remainder of his career. UZR shows the same thing, a guy who was average earlier in his career but who has gotten substantially worse starting in 2017.

Once again, there is so much volatility with defensive metrics that using individual season outputs to determine the talent level of a fielder is a not good statistical analysis. 

Pederson isn't old, and there's no reason for a significant drop in his fielding prowess. Taking a 4 year sample is a much better predictor for future outcomes than taking last years minute data outputs. 

[BlackSox13]

Just now, bschmaranz said:

Who's the 3rd outfielder then?  Pederson, ELoy, __________?

And if Joc is in CF with Jay on the bench, does that put Engel in RF? That doesn't make sense.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, BlackSox13 said:

And if Joc is in CF with Jay on the bench, does that put Engel in RF? That doesn't make sense.

I don't disagree that adding Joc to this outfield would make little sense in terms of possible platoons, etc.

[pcq]

2 hours ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

I did read what you posted on Catch Probability. It's all very interesting and valid. It's just not all I look at where players are concerned.

I care about it all. I look at players in their entirety. In a perfect world, you have great offensive players who are great defenders. We can agree on that..... Where Joc and Engel are concerned, as a whole, Pederson is by far the superior player overall. Engel's defense does not even come close to making up for his offensive shortcomings regardless of what other players on the roster are doing. Joc's offense makes up for any defensive shortcomings you've laid out today. The proof is in the data supplied, i.e. fWAR. 

The bottom line, at the end of the day, Engel's shortcomings on offense are costing a team more wins than Pederson's defense. Wins are what matter in my view.

Engel is excessively one-dimensional. In most cases not a tolerable luxury among teams with 12 players but great for a September roster. 

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

He is. Catch Probability ranked him 75th out of 87 OF's in a year where he played mostly LF. Now imagine him in CF all the time. If by not bad you mean he can catch routine flys balls you're right he isn't bad at that. Anything more challenging he's not going to make the catch.

Funny how those who might think he is a bad OF or think Palka could be just as good have to talk themselves into it  while those who think he isn't bad  haven't talked themselves into it because they so badly don't want to see Engel out there again or are willing to sacrifice defense for the long ball.

They aren’t sacrificing defense for the long ball. Not even close. They’re simply replacing a bad player overall with a good player overall. The end result will mean winning more games. Which the Sox are pushing to do right now.