Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

If they acquired Pederson, I would assume that he would play a corner OF and Jay would be in CF. After seeing the really poor defensive metrics on Joc, I'm wondering if Palka might end up being just as good as he is. Palka has lost 15 pounds, has a good arm, and runs pretty well. I assume he now runs even better than last year, now that he is lighter. He has been working hard on his defense, and he might surprise us. 

In any case, Engel would be a good late inning defensive replacement. He could take over in CF, and Jay could move to the corner, to replace Palka. 

Palka is not just as good as Pederson offensively or defensively. The fact that Palka “runs faster” doesn’t equate to him being a better player. 

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

Nailed it. Great post. 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

19 minutes ago, Fuagman said:

Ender>Joc. Ender is a GG centerfielder with elite speed. They’re not replacing ender with Joc, that is such an absurd take

To be fair, you just described Engel vs Joc.

[SoxAce]

For every bad apple, there's posters like @Look at Ray Ray Run who give me hope about the noob contribution to this site. 

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

11 minutes ago, pcq said:

Engel is excessively one-dimensional. In most cases not a tolerable luxury among teams with 12 players but great for a September roster. 

I agree. It isn’t personal for me where Engel is concerned. He’s just not good overall and hurts the team more than he helps. 

[TomPickle]

3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

 To be fair, you just described Engel vs Joc.

Inciarte is Engel with Jay's bat.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

For every bad apple, there's posters like @Look at Ray Ray Run who give me hope about the noob contribution to this site. 

He even included Hawk's TWTW components like "grittiness" and "dirt bag" in his Rowand Tribute.  (Well, he didn't but certainly COULD have, lol.)

In all fairness, everything you read about Nick Madrigal, he's actually a very similar player to Aaron...with the difference being he has the most advanced bat to ball skills (not power, of course) of all the collegiate hitters in his draft class.

Of course, it's not surprise then that he's not universally adored by the advanced analytics crowd.  That would be boring, right?

 

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

44 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well it might ve been lip service but Hahn did say if there was one thing he can guarantee it would better defense in 2019. I'm paraphrasing but I'm sure of it.

He also wants to win games. Having Engel playing every day doesn’t do that. 

[Lillian]

I have not watched Pederson play, very much, so I'm not qualified to render an opinion on his defense. I was reacting to the very negative defensive metrics that some of you pointed out. Regarding Palka, I understand that he is very unpolished in the outfield. However, there are two points which the scouting reports suggest, which contradict the assertion that he is slow and has a weak arm. He actually runs pretty well, for a big man and now at 15 pounds lighter, it will be interesting to see how he runs. He was a relief pitcher at Georgia Tech, with a fastball in the low 90's and has never had an arm or shoulder injury, so asserting that he has a "noodle arm," might be a little unfair. Could he learn to be a passable defender, at a corner outfield position? I don't know, but if so, his LH bat might be worth giving him more playing time. He is cheap and controllable for several more years, as he was only a rookie, last year.

[fathom]

Thing is, I would have been fine seeing Palka DH in 2019 with Abreu at 1B heading into the offseason.  However, the Alonso and Jay acquisitions have created a mess in the outfield.  Just hoping they get Manny and things start to make more sense.  If not, the roster construction will be a total mess.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not here to win the internet; I'm here to present my opinion. I'm not here to rally troops; I used Rowand as an example because he had two of the best defensive CF seasons in the modern metric era, and he wasn't a speed demon and the fans of this board are familiar with him. I could use Jim Edmonds as well, if that would make you feel better. He - although overrated IMO defensively - is still one of the best defensive CF'ers in the modern era, and no one would classify Edmonds as fast. Anyone who watched both of them understood that. 

Sure, speed helps - in a lot of cases, it helps cover up for other deficiencies and gives you more margin for error; similarly to throwing harder than not.... but to use Sprint Speed on the bases as a determining factor into a guys defensive prowess is just misguided and far too simplistic. 

I did also use catch probability which incorporates the things you mentioned as far as what made Roward a good defensive CFer. but you didn't like that one either. I can't remember if I used Edmunds as an example in my other posts on the subject. I know i was going to not sure if I did. I also go pretty far back in my observance of Sox Cfer's and you could also use Ken Berry as an example. I'm not 100% invested in sprint speed but using it made me realize he is pretty damn slow. I'm not against acquiring Pederson to use a a corner OF but there damn well better be a much better guy in CF to cover for the slowness that will be the Sox OF when the corners are so slow and rated poorly . It's never a good sign when 2 of the slowest guys on your roster are your newly acquired Ofer's (Jay is even slower than Pederson) but rated a bit higher than Joc in CP.

I totally understand wanting to win more right now,but it would be a mirage since none of the added pieces currently are more than 2 year players. The only difference is we still have a shot and Machado and Eloy will be here. After those 2 years we can see how all the other CF prospects stack up and we have quite a few of them. After those 2 years the Sox again lose a lot of payroll maybe including Abreu too. Next year you can sign a whale starting pitcher to ease the transition while Kopech Cease and Dunning perhaps adjust to the big leagues.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Thing is, I would have been fine seeing Palka DH in 2019 with Abreu at 1B heading into the offseason.  However, the Alonso and Jay acquisitions have created a mess in the outfield.  Just hoping they get Manny and things start to make more sense.  If not, the roster construction will be a total mess.

Yeah I would hope they could somehow flip Alonso somewhere if Manny doesn't sign. I don't really want him if Machado isnt here.

Edited January 23, 2019 by soxfan2014

[smellysox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

Thanks for the insight. And welcome. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

He even included Hawk's TWTW components like "grittiness" and "dirt bag" in his Rowand Tribute.  (Well, he didn't but certainly COULD have, lol.)

In all fairness, everything you read about Nick Madrigal, he's actually a very similar player to Aaron...with the difference being he has the most advanced bat to ball skills (not power, of course) of all the collegiate hitters in his draft class.

Of course, it's not surprise then that he's not universally adored by the advanced analytics crowd.  That would be boring, right?

 

What? You seem really caught up on my Rowand comment. I'm not sure why... Usually when explaining something - ala sprint speed being overrated as a defender - you want to use an example that your audience would be familiar with. I didn't use Rowand because of Hawk Harrelson or any nonsense; I used Rowand because he's a terrific example for why speed, or lack their of, does not make or break a center fielders defensive prowess. 

He's not universally adored by advanced metrics crowd? The two publications that were highest on Madrigal were fangraphs and BP. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

He also wants to win games. Having Engel playing every day doesn’t do that. 

No he wants to create a team with long term competitiveness to reach the playoffs for multiple years. I'm pretty sure that won't be 2019 with a slim chance at 2020. More likely starting in 2021 after Pederson would be gone along with Alonso, Jay, Colome, Herrera and possibly Abreu.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I did also use catch probability which incorporates the things you mentioned as far as what made Roward a good defensive CFer. but you didn't like that one either. I can't remember if I used Edmunds as an example in my other posts on the subject. I know i was going to not sure if I did. I also go pretty far back in my observance of Sox Cfer's and you could also use Ken Berry as an example. I'm not 100% invested in sprint speed but using it made me realize he is pretty damn slow. I'm not against acquiring Pederson to use a a corner OF but there damn well better be a much better guy in CF to cover for the slowness that will be the Sox OF when the corners are so slow and rated poorly . It's never a good sign when 2 of the slowest guys on your roster are your newly acquired Ofer's (Jay is even slower than Pederson) but rated a bit higher than Joc in CP.

I totally understand wanting to win more right now,but it would be a mirage since none of the added pieces currently are more than 2 year players. The only difference is we still have a shot and Machado and Eloy will be here. After those 2 years we can see how all the other CF prospects stack up and we have quite a few of them. After those 2 years the Sox again lose a lot of payroll maybe including Abreu too. Next year you can sign a whale starting pitcher to ease the transition while Kopech Cease and Dunning perhaps adjust to the big leagues.

I don't like catch probability for a few reasons; one, it's an infant statistic that has already had two significant adjustments in it's calculation and catch difficulty qualifications made to it in the past three years. Two, the sample for each catch group is not large enough - on an individual season basis - to weed all the noise. There is far too much volatility year to year for the statistic to warrant merit when evaluating a players yearly successes.

The statistic is OK when you grow the sample large enough, but by the time it becomes more reliable it no longer has predictive qualities because the data used to generate the  outputs are dated. It's a good tool to evaluate a career, but a bad tool to evaluate a year in my opinion. 

[bmags]

18 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Inciarte is Engel with Jay's bat.

He is by far the most obsessed over “kinda nice” player on this site. 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

What? You seem really caught up on my Rowand comment. I'm not sure why... Usually when explaining something - ala sprint speed being overrated as a defender - you want to use an example that your audience would be familiar with. I didn't use Rowand because of Hawk Harrelson or any nonsense; I used Rowand because he's a terrific example for why speed, or lack their of, does not make or break a center fielders defensive prowess. 

He's not universally adored by advanced metrics crowd? The two publications that were highest on Madrigal were fangraphs and BP. 

If you go through the last year of draft talk, you'll find a pretty even split here on Madrigal's future...Jose Altuve Light vs. David Eckstein Jr.

As for the Rowand stuff, I was just joking around.  I'm sure someone will argue his limited speed forced him to take chances like diving into walls that "superhuman" defenders like Buxton or Hamilton would have been camped under.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I don't like catch probability for a few reasons; one, it's an infant statistic that has already had two significant adjustments in it's calculation and catch difficulty qualifications made to it in the past three years. Two, the sample for each catch group is not large enough - on an individual season basis - to weed all the noise. There is far too much volatility year to year for the statistic to warrant merit when evaluating a players yearly successes.

The statistic is OK when you grow the sample large enough, but by the time it becomes more reliable it no longer has predictive qualities because the data used to generate the  outputs are dated. It's a good tool to evaluate a career, but a bad tool to evaluate a year in my opinion. 

Have you tried applying for the White Sox analytics department internship?   Your background is financial-oriented or mathematics/science/research?

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Have you tried applying for the White Sox analytics department internship?   Your background is financial or mathematics/science/research?

My background is in finance; statistics, and modeling, is more of a hobby I had as a kid than a career for me. There are probably A LOT of people much smarter than me in statistical analysis. I just happen to love baseball - and basketball - when it comes to statistical models and forecasting. It's fun to build them, and analyze others data, but it's also very humbling given how horribly wrong I have been before. Volatility in sports is a lot of fun!

Edited January 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[smellysox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB.

Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. 

The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders. 

Who are you?? And where have you been?

Good post!

Edited January 23, 2019 by smellysox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

52 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sure, in his career in CF his total zone rating is -3 and his zone rating per 1200 innnings in the field is -1. He's a league average center fielder by zone rating in his career (which is a much better sample for fielding metrics than any individual season) His UZR rating for his career is -2.1 (so similar) which makes him league average in center again. Over 5 years his DRS is -13 which - once agian - is league average. 

Every single thing about Pederson says he's a league average center fielder when you look at his entire career.

As for your final point; the "best shape of his life" nonsense is exactly that - complete nonsense. This is the time of year where all these guys show up in the best shape of their lives (there will be 20+ articles written about random players stating such) this spring training and those guys will be the same baseball players they were prior to their weight loss... Why? Because Palka isn't a bad defender because he's fat, he's bad because he has a noodle arm, and gets horrendous reads and jumps on baseballs. His path to the ball always looks so unnatural too him; he never looks comfortable. He looks like Hanley Ramirez every time a ball was hit off the monster. 

As for what is the point of 2 years of Pederson? Because winning baseball games eventually matters and putting out a MLB product to assist/compliment the youthful core is really important. Because people do pay to watch the product, and putting out the absolute worst of the worst for 5 years is simply unacceptable. 

And why should I look at his whole career? Didn't you just make the argument about how Jones and Gonzales have sucked over the last couple years? Pederson is a future 1st baseman waiting to happen.He's already slower than many of them. Pederson is a big boy and I don't care how average his whole career WAS in CF he isn't getting any faster.. WAS is not now . At least Rowand wasn't slower than a lot of 1st baseman nor was Jim Edmunds.

Winning matters in 2019 ? Really . Winning what ? The award for the best under .500 team in baseball ? The best team with the most guys who aren't going to be on the team after 2020 ? The youthful core will be supported but not by Pederson playing CF that's for sure.  Hopefully by Machado, a whale pitcher next year and Madrigal, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Basabe and whoever else we sign for 2020 and after that.

[BlackSox13]

37 minutes ago, fathom said:

I don't disagree that adding Joc to this outfield would make little sense in terms of possible platoons, etc.

 Yeah nothing special to choose from for RHH outfielders. I like the idea of trying to build his value as a RF. I'm not saying Joc would have the same results but look what a move from CF to RF did for Eaton's value.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

 Yeah nothing special to choose from for RHH outfielders. I like the idea of trying to build his value as a RF. I'm not saying Joc would have the same results but look what a move from CF to RF did for Eaton's value.

Well, he's only played 7 MLB games in RF, total.

410 in CF, 122 in LF.

[fathom]