Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, iamshack said:

This is no longer a question of if, but of when. 

Shack - Based on your comment, are you suggesting something might happen sooner rather than later?

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Unless you have sources, I’m not sure you’re reading his post correctly.

How so? 

[SoxAce]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Unless you have sources, I’m not sure you’re reading his post correctly.

 

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Shack - Based on your comment, are you suggesting something might happen sooner rather than later?

 

LMAO. That was a quick swing of events.

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Shack - Based on your comment, are you suggesting something might happen sooner rather than later?

It’s not a matter of if we add Manny, but when. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

First time poster, long time lurker.

Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. 

Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. 

I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable.

Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks.

Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size.

Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not. 

You should post more often! 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

How so? 

He’s confirming the addition of Machado isn’t an if but a when and I don’t think he’s speculating.  Shack is one of the few insiders I have full confidence in.

[iamshack]

3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

You should post more often! 

James has found his soul mate

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

 

 

LMAO. That was a quick swing of events.

 

2 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

It’s not a matter of if we add Manny, but when. 

I’m assuming it’s got to be close if it’s no longer an if, but when I say “sooner” I’m talking about like the next 24 hours.  Like does the board need to be on watch right now.

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He’s confirming the addition of Machado isn’t an if but a when and I don’t think he’s speculating.  Shack is one of the few insiders I have full confidence in.

Shack and I are on the exact same wave length. I’m not sure what I’m missing to be honest. 

[mqr]

32 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

I’m going to have to disagree. They see how weak the division is. They believe they can be competitive and contend for a division title this year. Again, only because the division is weak and possibly going to get weaker with more trades by the Indians. 

Agreed. You add Machado and Pederson and you have by far the bullpen in the division and pretty close to the best lineup(though id still definitely take Cleveland). It wouldn’t take that much to break right to be right in this thing at the end. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by mqr

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Isn't the catch group not large enough because most of the other catches are fairly routine ? I'm assuming you are talking about the samples in the 1 through 5 star ratings ?

I'm going to bookmark this post so I can get back to this when I get time - I apologize, it's been fun tonight but I sadly am trying to get some work done before a long next couple days. I will do my best to respond with the changes made to catch probability, and the deficiencies I see with the metric before this thread wraps up.

 

The great thing about this forum is we are all on the same fan page.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Because Pederson is still on the upside of his aging curve - although he's nearing a regression point defensively as defense ages quicker than offense in MLB. Pederson still has prime years left in him, and taking the sum of his outcomes is a smarter move than taking a noisy "regression" at 26 years old which doesn't match with standard aging and regression curves for MLB players. Jones and Gonzalez are on the wrong side of 30 (33 and 34), and if you look at their career progression, it is quite obvious they are following the standard aging curve that existed prior to steroids in baseball - and has apparently returned with the reduction of use in PED's. They simply aren't the same thing.

Yes, getting better and improving is important in 2019. Prospect growth and progress IS NOT linear. There's nothing that says such and such will get this much better with this many AB's. For all you know, Anderson and Moncada could have huge breakout years or they could stay the same. You need to be prepared for growth, and not react to it though; reacting to unexpected prospect progression leads to you hampering their further growth because you didn't surround them with quality MLB talent. You can't continue to trot out complete and utter garbage. Sorry, but that's not a rebuild; at some point, your window for growth needs to kick into gear, and after 3 absolutely abysmal seasons for the White Sox, the time is now for them to begin an upward trajectory otherwise you set yourself back another year despite guys like Anderson, Moncada and now Eloy being one year closer to their free agency. Maximizing windows isn't about drafting high every year, it's about year to year growth and changing the organizational culture. 

I understand prospect growth isn't linear. If it was any other year but the Moncada Harper year the Sox would have no interest in speeding up the rebuild and if we don't get Machado  neither would most of our posters. As you said long term pieces are the key but that's not what Pederson and every other guy we acquired so far is.  AT the beginning of the rebuild whenever Machado or Harper were brought up we'd get a resounding no way the Sox go after them. Now all of a sudden everyone thinks getting Machado means we can win the division in the next 2 years. This will only be the 3rd year of the rebuild. The Cubs had 5 bad years before they got better. 3 if you want to count after Theo took over. The Stros had 3 bad years and another 3 after Luhnow took over. Lost in the ALDS in 2015 Missed the playoffs in 2016 , Won the WS in 2017.

 I'm not saying we have to follow the exact path they did but they both won WS so it's not a bad model. As far as drafting high not being a key look at how much it helped the Astros and they even screwed up a couple picks like all teams do. Correa , Bregman and Springer are head and shoulders above any results the Sox have experienced so far but we made up for that by having prospects we traded for who may have the same impacts as those 3. They just have to not get injured any more and get here.  Trying to win  too early screws up the chance at more impact draft choices. Not surrounding all those young players with talent too early didn't seem to negatively impact the Stros or Cubs. Their bond was built because they all were in the same system at the same time who came up together or a year or 2 apart. Then they added the free agents to complete the rebuild Verlander, Beltran, Reddick. Morton, Gurriel.

January 14, 2015

Traded Andrew Thurman (minors), Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz to the Atlanta Braves. Received Evan Gattis and James Hoyt. Wonder if they would want a do over with that one.

July 30, 2015

Traded Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez and cash. They got 3 Ok years from Fiers during the 2015 playoff team and the 2017 WS winning team. Fiers was 30 Gomez was 29. I could go farther back but I don't see anyone they acquired in trades who made a difference before they started making the playoffs. Mostly a lot of good FA acquisitions. Fiers pitched 1 inning in the 2015 playoffs and was left off the 2017 playoffs and World Series roster.

Edited January 23, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Real quick, the Cubs nor the Astros were bad for 5 years due to a rebuild. They were bad prior to their rebuild commitment and then year 4 of the rebuild was moving year - a year of progress. The Sox have been bad for a decade but I'm only counting the three years in which we began the rebuild.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Real quick, the Cubs nor the Astros were bad for 5 years due to a rebuild. They were bad prior to their rebuild commitment and then year 4 of the rebuild was moving year - a year of progress. The Sox have been bad for a decade but I'm only counting the three years in which we began the rebuild.

Don't you mean two then? 17 and 18?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

34 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

All valid points but the Sox don’t agree and see an opening. Which is why they are pursuing what they’re pursuing. 

SO would you be willing to wager the Sox don't make the playoffs in 2019 ? No money just a fun bet.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Real quick, the Cubs nor the Astros were bad for 5 years due to a rebuild. They were bad prior to their rebuild commitment and then year 4 of the rebuild was moving year - a year of progress. The Sox have been bad for a decade but I'm only counting the three years in which we began the rebuild.

Yes I know I did break it down to years of bad and years when they put Theo in charge.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Don't you mean two then? 17 and 18?

Yes i also told him that unless he's already counting 2019.

[Harry Chappas]

The Sox don't need to begetter than Cleveland they just need to be better than the second wildcard team.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lastly, this should have been a slightly expedited rebuild given that they traded elite MLB talent for MLB nearing prospects. They didnt trade for 19 year old kids - they traded for guys that were very close to Major League ready. If the Sox arent competing until 2021 then this rebuild failed as the key components acquired from our major trades will only have 2 years of controllability left.

Rebuilds aren't linear either. Admitting to failure because 2021 is more realistic than 2019 and 2020 is odd considering Kopech will be only in his 2nd year, Cease and Dunning in their 2nd year . All the OF prospects and Madrigal in maybe 1st full year or rookie years. Jimenez 3rd starting third year but we have control for 7 ? if we bring him up April this year ? Burger might be ready who knows? Should have a good idea on Bryce Bush and Steele walker progress. Doesn't seem like a failed rebuild to me. Astro's signed a bunch of FA's to supplement their WS winning team. Gurriel. Reddick Morton, Verlander may be forgetting one. Yes the rebuild is doomed doomed I say by 2021.

[mqr]

13 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

The Sox don't need to begetter than Cleveland they just need to be better than the second wildcard team.

The second wild card team is almost certainly going to be better than Cleveland. They were this year. Cleveland was barely better than the first team out. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

The second wild card team is almost certainly going to be better than Cleveland. They were this year. Cleveland was barely better than the first team out. 

Yep, and Cleveland didn't exactly do anything to get better this offseason.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

I’m going to have to disagree. They see how weak the division is. They believe they can be competitive and contend for a division title this year. Again, only because the division is weak and possibly going to get weaker with more trades by the Indians. 

Don't even have close to the starting pitching necessary to win the division. I too had hopes that 2019 could be a decent year for the same reasons. That went out the window as soon as i saw Nova was the replacement for Shields.

[Kiebs13]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And why should I look at his whole career? Didn't you just make the argument about how Jones and Gonzales have sucked over the last couple years? Pederson is a future 1st baseman waiting to happen.He's already slower than many of them. Pederson is a big boy and I don't care how average his whole career WAS in CF he isn't getting any faster.. WAS is not now . At least Rowand wasn't slower than a lot of 1st baseman nor was Jim Edmunds.

Winning matters in 2019 ? Really . Winning what ? The award for the best under .500 team in baseball ? The best team with the most guys who aren't going to be on the team after 2020 ? The youthful core will be supported but not by Pederson playing CF that's for sure.  Hopefully by Machado, a whale pitcher next year and Madrigal, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Basabe and whoever else we sign for 2020 and after that.

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you?  Lol I'm loving this. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Kiebs13

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, GREEDY said:

Obviously, no comparing the starting staffs, with or without Kluber.  You can make the case that the Sox currently have zero position players on their opening day lineup that would start for the Indians (Abreu or Yonder would start at DH, Eloy is coming).  I think the Sox could add Machado, Joc and another $10mm/1yr SP and they'd still be 4/1 to end up with a better record than Cleveland and probably 6/1 to win the division.  That is not quite ready to consider yourself contending IMHO.

Lindor and Ramirez, obviously,

Moncada over Kipnis.   DH could go either way.  Abreu at 1B.   God knows about the OF, other than Jimenez, for either team.  Catcher would also seemingly favor the White Sox, although the Indians are still looking to upgrade

1	Francisco Lindor	SS	657	115	33	90	21	0.283	0.351	0.505	0.856	66	101
2	Jason Kipnis	2B	465	61	16	61	8	0.243	0.317	0.413	0.730	48	101
3	Jose Ramirez	3B	580	104	31	93	26	0.295	0.382	0.548	0.930	80	74
4	Carlos Santana	DH	563	85	25	83	4	0.245	0.359	0.444	0.803	101	94
5	Jake Bauers	1B	323	47	10	43	9	0.220	0.318	0.384	0.702	46	98
6	Greg Allen	OF	322	48	3	25	23	0.258	0.325	0.348	0.673	23	79
7	Tyler Naquin	OF	309	42	7	37	3	0.262	0.309	0.392	0.701	19	88
8	Leonys Martin	OF	333	47	10	31	12	0.243	0.308	0.393	0.701	29	86
9	Roberto Perez	C	288	27	6	38	1	0.181	0.269	0.299	0.568	35	102

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Lindor and Ramirez, obviously,

Moncada over Kipnis.   DH could go either way.  Abreu at 1B.   God knows about the OF, other than Jimenez, for either team.  Catcher would also seemingly favor the White Sox, although the Indians are still looking to upgrade

1	Francisco Lindor	SS	657	115	33	90	21	0.283	0.351	0.505	0.856	66	101
2	Jason Kipnis	2B	465	61	16	61	8	0.243	0.317	0.413	0.730	48	101
3	Jose Ramirez	3B	580	104	31	93	26	0.295	0.382	0.548	0.930	80	74
4	Carlos Santana	DH	563	85	25	83	4	0.245	0.359	0.444	0.803	101	94
5	Jake Bauers	1B	323	47	10	43	9	0.220	0.318	0.384	0.702	46	98
6	Greg Allen	OF	322	48	3	25	23	0.258	0.325	0.348	0.673	23	79
7	Tyler Naquin	OF	309	42	7	37	3	0.262	0.309	0.392	0.701	19	88
8	Leonys Martin	OF	333	47	10	31	12	0.243	0.308	0.393	0.701	29	86
9	Roberto Perez	C	288	27	6	38	1	0.181	0.269	0.299	0.568	35	102

I’d take Moncada over Kipnis also. I think he’s pretty close to done and you could argue Moncada was just as good if not better last year. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by mqr