Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, mqr said:

I’d take Moncada over Kipnis also. I think he’s pretty close to done and you could argue Moncada was just as good if not better last year. 

There was a lot of talk about moving Kipnis to CF...because of obvious weaknesses all around the outfield.

He's been so inconsistent offensively, which is a killer for a small market team, (see Gordon, Alex).

fWAR (starting in 2011)   0.8, 3.4, 5.1, 0.7, 4.5, 4.7, 0.5, 2.1 (for his four peak seasons, an impressive 4.4 player)

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you? 

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season.

Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck.

I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims.

I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

[hi8is]

27 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you?  Lol I'm loving this. 

He’s right. 2019 isn’t our year... manny or not.

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season.

Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck.

I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims.

I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

Smh

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Smh

Yay another quality post supporting your views, The Supreme Court is waiting for you.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season.

Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck.

I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims.

I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Don't even have close to the starting pitching necessary to win the division. I too had hopes that 2019 could be a decent year for the same reasons. That went out the window as soon as i saw Nova was the replacement for Shields.

To be clear, nobody (including the Sox) believes they are running away with the division. What I said was they see a weak division with an opportunity to strike while sticking with their plan if things go well. Plus, the off-season is not over. There will be other additions to this team. 

I’m sorry that you feel the entire 2019 season was destroyed by the trade for Nova. 

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season.

Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck.

I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims.

I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

You’re still not getting it. Nobody has an issue with your speed data. It just doesn’t tell the complete story about the players.

Where you run into problems is when you disregard the fact that when you play a good defensive CF who is one of the worst offensive players in MLB, you’re costing your team wins. People are simply saying that Joc’s offensive production and CF shortcomings far outweighs Engel’s defensive production and offensive shortcomings. And it’s not even close. 

Last, Joc is fine in CF. He’s not a top of the league CF by any means and he doesn’t need to be. You can deal with that given his very good offensive production. Engel is a good CF. But remember, his offensive production is so bad it literally wipes out anything he does for the team defensively. He’s costing the team wins, especially when comparing him to Joc. There’s literally no arguing that point. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Stealth G.O.A.T.

[Balta1701]

5 hours ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

You’re still not getting it. Nobody has an issue with your speed data. It just doesn’t tell the complete story about the players.

Where you run into problems is when you disregard the fact that when you play a good defensive CF who is one of the worst offensive players in MLB, you’re costing your team wins. People are simply saying that Joc’s offensive production and CF shortcomings far outweighs Engel’s defensive production and offensive shortcomings. And it’s not even close. 

Last, Joc is fine in CF. He’s not a top of the league CF by any means and he doesn’t need to be. You can deal with that given his very good offensive production. Engel is a good CF. But remember, his offensive production is so bad it literally wipes out anything he does for the team defensively. He’s costing the team wins, especially when comparing him to Joc. There’s literally no arguing that point. 

You literally told me that I couldn't look at the fact that Joc's defensive numbers over the past 4 years have pointed straight down and said that only the average counts, and now you're telling him "It just doesn't tell the complete story about the players". Well fine, tell the complete story of the players, because you're deliberately leaving a lot out. Joc Pederson's offense wiped out his weak defense last year, but he failed to do so in 2017, that year he hit .212 with a .738 OPS and was bad enough that he was comparable to Engel overall. That's part of the story of this player too. Tell his story - he's no longer fine in CF, he's trended downwards substantially since 2016 but you say that you can only draw a flat line across that and care about the average, which blocks out part of the story. If he hits like he did in 2018 that's good enough to overcome it, but if he hits like he did in 2017 it does not, and if you put him out there against too many LHP then his overall offense is going to look really bad, so you better be ok with paying the price in trade for a guy who needs a platoon partner.

Your blunt statement "there's literally no arguing on that point" is true, as long as you "don't tell the complete story about the players".

[FT35]

5 hours ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

You’re still not getting it. Nobody has an issue with your speed data. It just doesn’t tell the complete story about the players.

Where you run into problems is when you disregard the fact that when you play a good defensive CF who is one of the worst offensive players in MLB, you’re costing your team wins. People are simply saying that Joc’s offensive production and CF shortcomings far outweighs Engel’s defensive production and offensive shortcomings. And it’s not even close. 

Last, Joc is fine in CF. He’s not a top of the league CF by any means and he doesn’t need to be. You can deal with that given his very good offensive production. Engel is a good CF. But remember, his offensive production is so bad it literally wipes out anything he does for the team defensively. He’s costing the team wins, especially when comparing him to Joc. There’s literally no arguing that point. 

This is all correct.  I love great defense as much as anyone, and I love watching Engel go get em in the outfield.  But when you are contending, you need players who are both.  And if you have players who aren't both, then they have to be able to hit more than anything.  I'm not sure Joc Pederson is the answer, but he's a massive improvement over Engel.  Honestly, I will cherish my 2018 Topps Adam Engel baseball card of him going over the wall to snag a HR away, but he is no where near our roster when we start to compete.  I doubt he would make many MLB rosters--the opportunity was with us during the rebuild and mostly because he got hot in the Arizona Fall League a couple years ago.  I honestly think, if that doesn't happen, we don't give him the extended look in CF--even with the immense amount of skill he brings to that position defensively.  The hope was that he would come around and show a little of that AFL spark at the plate, and it just hasn't panned out. 

Omar Vizquel changed everything for that type of player.  NO ONE thought he would be able to hit at the MLB level but you had to give the guy a shot because of his glove.  Then something clicked and he found an amazing niche offensively and boom...you have a tremendous asset.  You have to give guys like Engel a look to see if that could happen--but unfortunately...it didn't.  There aren't many Omar Vizquel's out there.  True lightning in a bottle.  

[Y2Jimmy0]

8 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season.

Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck.

I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims.

I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

Luis Robert is their CF of the future. Luis Alexander Basabe might play some there as well in late 2019 and 2020. I'd rather have Jon Jay and Joc Pederson in CF than Adam Engel though over the next 2 years and that's the real question here. Adam Engel is the best defender. He's also unplayable from an offensive standpoint. Joc Pederson is the more valuable player regardless of how fast he is or isn't. The Sox have also shown that they don't give a shit about defense with some of their personnel choices in the past. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Luis Robert is their CF of the future. Luis Alexander Basabe might play some there as well in late 2019 and 2020. I'd rather have Jon Jay and Joc Pederson in CF than Adam Engel though over the next 2 years and that's the real question here. Adam Engel is the best defender. He's also unplayable from an offensive standpoint. Joc Pederson is the more valuable player regardless of how fast he is or isn't. The Sox have also shown that they don't give a shit about defense with some of their personnel choices in the past. 

Would you be willing to give up a fair price, someone like Basabe, in order to make that preference for the Jay and Pederson setup in the OF happen?

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Would you be willing to give up a fair price, someone like Basabe, in order to make that preference for the Jay and Pederson setup in the OF happen?

Probably not for only two years of control on Pederson. I'd do something like the rumored asking price of Bummer/Bush though for sure. 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Would you be willing to give up a fair price, someone like Basabe, in order to make that preference for the Jay and Pederson setup in the OF happen?

Yes, but not until you first sign Machado...which might not even happen, or happen before spring training.

If you aren’t sure you have Manny, it’s not a wise decision.

The fact of the matter is that Joc Pederson could easily get paid just $13 million the next two years for 6 fWAR of production (value of $57 million).   We’re not going to get anything close to that from Herrera or Colome.

Using your argument, with Bryce Harper only at 11.3 for the last three years (and not 10 alone for 2015), he’s not even a 4 war player, he’s   3.8 x let’s say 9.5 million, he would only be worth $35-36 million per year...but he will never agree to sign for that.

Edited January 23, 2019 by caulfield12

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You literally told me that I couldn't look at the fact that Joc's defensive numbers over the past 4 years have pointed straight down and said that only the average counts, and now you're telling him "It just doesn't tell the complete story about the players". Well fine, tell the complete story of the players, because you're deliberately leaving a lot out. Joc Pederson's offense wiped out his weak defense last year, but he failed to do so in 2017, that year he hit .212 with a .738 OPS and was bad enough that he was comparable to Engel overall. That's part of the story of this player too. Tell his story - he's no longer fine in CF, he's trended downwards substantially since 2016 but you say that you can only draw a flat line across that and care about the average, which blocks out part of the story. If he hits like he did in 2018 that's good enough to overcome it, but if he hits like he did in 2017 it does not, and if you put him out there against too many LHP then his overall offense is going to look really bad, so you better be ok with paying the price in trade for a guy who needs a platoon partner.

Your blunt statement "there's literally no arguing on that point" is true, as long as you "don't tell the complete story about the players".

The first part of your post, I’m not sure what you’re referring to. I didn’t tell you that so I think you have me confused with another poster.

I will address the other part of your post shortly when I have a few minutes. 

[Bob Sacamano]

49 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Probably not for only two years of control on Pederson. I'd do something like the rumored asking price of Bummer/Bush though for sure. 

If it's that low, other teams should also be all over.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, FT35 said:

This is all correct.  I love great defense as much as anyone, and I love watching Engel go get em in the outfield.  But when you are contending, you need players who are both. 

Tell me when are we contending again? I just want to get this down for future reference.

[Dick Allen]

When the Sox are good, you don't want Joc Pederson in CF with Eloy and another guy with not much range making out your OF. But for now, Pederson in CF wins more games than Engel in CF because Engel cannot hit. 

Pederson is fine in CF in 2019 when you aren't contending, but if he costs anything, as much as I have always coveted him, it really makes little sense. If you can get him for basically nothing, fine. It will make the team better. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

To be clear, nobody (including the Sox) believes they are running away with the division. What I said was they see a weak division with an opportunity to strike while sticking with their plan if things go well. Plus, the off-season is not over. There will be other additions to this team. 

I’m sorry that you feel the entire 2019 season was destroyed by the trade for Nova. 

The Sox have no #1 and no # 2 starter. If they wanted to compete they would have gone out and got a 1 or 2 starter. Nova isn't that. If you want to pin all your hopes and dreams on Giolito, Lopez, Rodon  Covey Banuelos and go right ahead but if you think its only me who just doesn't get it you are sorely mistaken and you are in for a huge disappointment.

[Y2Jimmy0]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Tell me when are we contending again? I just want to get this down for future reference.

I think in 2020 they realistically contend. It's not even about that for me. Adam Engel shouldn't be playing regularly for the Sox even if they aren't expected to be good. In 2017, he posted a wRC+ of 38. That number improved to 68 last season. He's not a major leaguer. 

[FT35]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Tell me when are we contending again? I just want to get this down for future reference.

HA!  Well...it's my understanding that they would prefer to contend at some point in the near future--next couple of years for sure!  Otherwise...I'm not sure they would be going after guys like Machado if it wasn't the goal to contend soon.  Judging by the timeline of things--if I had to guess, the plan would be to play well this year, and contend next year?  Just sayin, I don't think Engel will have a spot on those contending teams when they arrive.  Do you?  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, FT35 said:

HA!  Well...it's my understanding that they would prefer to contend at some point in the near future--next couple of years for sure!  Otherwise...I'm not sure they would be going after guys like Machado if it wasn't the goal to contend soon.  Judging by the timeline of things--if I had to guess, the plan would be to play well this year, and contend next year?  Just sayin, I don't think Engel will have a spot on those contending teams when they arrive.  Do you?  

Nope and neither will Pederson.

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

If it's that low, other teams should also be all over.

Right, I think the variation in the names thrown out as being involved and how unrealistic that is has made this an impossible conversation.

I like Joc Pederson, and am not ready to punt on 2020 the way many are. However, the idea that he can be had for Bummer and Bush seems incredible considering better positioned teams with equal farms such as braves also exist.

But, that is the info that was presented to date. Apparently, there is no salary offsetting any talent sent LAs way.

I would love to upgrade over Engel, but not at the price of hurting our future goal of consistent contention. Unfortunately at this point, it feels like the talent we amassed in trades of 2016-17 is what it is, it is not being re enforced well in draft and there has been no fast risers from the latam classes of 2015-16, and no class to speak of for 2017-18. None of the minor trades to date have resulted in an immediate turnaround for a prospect.

So trading for the depth at this point is a scary proposition as it feels removing the margin for error. When you just absolutely need specifically Luis Robert and Jimenez and Dunning and Kopech and Cease to hit. Is that likely? History says no considering the major league record of our recent good prospects at least shows significant major league work required. And for that reason bush feels like one of the pieces that could catapault into a future core piece. Is it likely? No.

Now there are pieces I'd trade for young productive players even if it isn't cost controlled for 4 years or more. Rutherford is one, Hansen is another. Burdi is another. And pederson is a guy that would be really nice in a mix of 4 good outfielders. Say a combo of Eloy, Robert, and say Luis Gonzalez, then using a platoon with pederson for LHP with Gonzalez (obviously this could be wrong but I don't know what to make of the fact that Gonzalez absolutely destroyed LHP despite being a LH batter), then you are talking about the kind of depth that competes with Astros, yankees and red sox. And I thought that was the goal, not to take a weak division for a year like the 2017 minnesota twins.

I know it sucks to watch garbage. And I don't like the idea of just continuously pushing out the window of contention. But this team is still 90% garbage on the ML roster. Adding machado helps. It doesn't change a lot of it. Adding pederson will be nice. I don't think it moves us past, say, 80 wins even with both and significant jumps from moncada and good jimenez.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

When the Sox are good, you don't want Joc Pederson in CF with Eloy and another guy with not much range making out your OF. But for now, Pederson in CF wins more games than Engel in CF because Engel cannot hit. 

Pederson is fine in CF in 2019 when you aren't contending, but if he costs anything, as much as I have always coveted him, it really makes little sense. If you can get him for basically nothing, fine. It will make the team better. 

basically my sentiments in 2 paragraphs instead of 20.

[FT35]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Right, I think the variation in the names thrown out as being involved and how unrealistic that is has made this an impossible conversation.

I like Joc Pederson, and am not ready to punt on 2020 the way many are. However, the idea that he can be had for Bummer and Bush seems incredible considering better positioned teams with equal farms such as braves also exist.

But, that is the info that was presented to date. Apparently, there is no salary offsetting any talent sent LAs way.

I would love to upgrade over Engel, but not at the price of hurting our future goal of consistent contention. Unfortunately at this point, it feels like the talent we amassed in trades of 2016-17 is what it is, it is not being re enforced well in draft and there has been no fast risers from the latam classes of 2015-16, and no class to speak of for 2017-18. None of the minor trades to date have resulted in an immediate turnaround for a prospect.

So trading for the depth at this point is a scary proposition as it feels removing the margin for error. When you just absolutely need specifically Luis Robert and Jimenez and Dunning and Kopech and Cease to hit. Is that likely? History says no considering the major league record of our recent good prospects at least shows significant major league work required. And for that reason bush feels like one of the pieces that could catapault into a future core piece. Is it likely? No.

Now there are pieces I'd trade for young productive players even if it isn't cost controlled for 4 years or more. Rutherford is one, Hansen is another. Burdi is another. And pederson is a guy that would be really nice in a mix of 4 good outfielders. Say a combo of Eloy, Robert, and say Luis Gonzalez, then using a platoon with pederson for LHP with Gonzalez (obviously this could be wrong but I don't know what to make of the fact that Gonzalez absolutely destroyed LHP despite being a LH batter), then you are talking about the kind of depth that competes with Astros, yankees and red sox. And I thought that was the goal, not to take a weak division for a year like the 2017 minnesota twins.

I know it sucks to watch garbage. And I don't like the idea of just continuously pushing out the window of contention. But this team is still 90% garbage on the ML roster. Adding machado helps. It doesn't change a lot of it. Adding pederson will be nice. I don't think it moves us past, say, 80 wins even with both and significant jumps from moncada and good jimenez.

I could get on board with this.  The thought would be if they make a decent jump in 2019 through big FA adds and internal growth, that they will add more before 2020 crunch time--possibly giving them a push down the 2020 contending path.  Like another stud SP, more bullpen specialists, another couple bat upgrades.  I think if that all happens, you'll see the competitive team shell starting to form.  One that might be clear enough that they can begin considering moving prospect assets to help the MLB cause.