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Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


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14 minutes ago, jenksycat said:

Arbitration = Joc will make more than 5m in year 2

Michael Brantley just signed a 2/32 and Mccutchen got slightly overpaid at 3/50, both 1 year older.  AJ Pollock is not getting more than 3 years and isn't going to blow away either of those.

So again, for a few million more get a similar player without trading any assets.

His 2015 season argues the counterpoint...just like Harper's one 10 fWAR season.

I'm pretty sure it was around 5.9 or something like that.

If not for that solitary breakout season, he'd be lucky to get $12-13 million per season with that injury history and at age 31.  Basically, he'd be a similar contract to Melky (albeit he can play CF, not just below average defense at a corner).

Edited by caulfield12
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2 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

So who is Merkin trying to convince, Sox fans or the dodgers front office? 

Seriously tho. The pitching repertoire is there and everything except the four seam FB has good movement. Just can't locate it. 

Fulmer was filthy in college before we tinkered his motion to hell and back. 

( I understand his delivery was violent and there was injury concern - but boy, was he a completely different pitcher in college. )

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11 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Fulmer was filthy in college before we tinkered his motion to hell and back. 

( I understand his delivery was violent and there was injury concern - but boy, was he a completely different pitcher in college. )

Yeah, his stuff significantly deteriorated after college. Not sure if it is due to his size, the Sox tinkering with his mechanics, or both. He sucks now though. 

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22 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Fulmer was filthy in college before we tinkered his motion to hell and back. 

( I understand his delivery was violent and there was injury concern - but boy, was he a completely different pitcher in college. )

Always viewed him as our lights out setup/closer.  Come in for an inning go nuts then hit the showers.

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36 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I agree.

If only we'd drafted Walker Buehler instead of Fulmer and held onto Fernando Tatis, Jr., we'd have the best farm system in baseball and a realistic shot at the playoffs this year with Machado/Pederson and another veteran starter like Hill/Miley/Gio/Pomeranz (throw in Kimbrel there if you want complete overkill.)

It just goes to show you how a couple of "bad breaks/wrong decisions" and Kopech blowing out his elbow can sway perception incredibly for a farm system only 2-3 spots removed from #1.

With those two players in place, we could be throwing $350-400 million at Harper and still acquire Joc Pederson/Hill.

 

2B Yoan Moncada

CF Joc Pederson

1B Jose Abreu

RF Bryce Harper

LF Eloy Jimenez

DH Yonder Alonso/Palka

C Castillo

3B Fernando Tatis, Jr.

SS Tim Anderson

 

Walker Buehler

Rich Hill

Carlos Rodon

Reynaldo Lopez

Lucas Giolito/Ivan Nova

LR:  Dylan Covey

 

2020 (Cease/Kopech/Dunning/Hansen)

 

Edited by caulfield12
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14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If only we'd drafted Walker Buehler instead of Fulmer and held onto Fernando Tatis, Jr., we'd have the best farm system in baseball and a realistic shot at the playoffs this year with Machado/Pederson and another veteran starter like Hill/Miley/Gio/Pomeranz (throw in Kimbrel there if you want complete overkill.)

 

I say it every time sometime brings that up, but if we still had Tatis Jr, there is a good chance this rebuild never got kicked off, or least as soon as it did, so now you are talking about trading Eaton, Sale and Q potentially a year later each, so now maybe you are only getting 1 of Kopech/Moncada and only 1 of Eloy/Cease, and possibly no Dane Dunning. James Shields' sucking is what spurred this rebuild.

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13 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I say it every time sometime brings that up, but if we still had Tatis Jr, there is a good chance this rebuild never got kicked off, or least as soon as it did, so now you are talking about trading Eaton, Sale and Q potentially a year later each, so now maybe you are only getting 1 of Kopech/Moncada and only 1 of Eloy/Cease, and possibly no Dane Dunning. James Shields' sucking is what spurred this rebuild.

The problem is that Eaton and Q have decreased in value considerably since their trades, that's the obvious point in your argument.

That said, I think most SoxTalkers would take Sale back for that trade as of today...if you could still have Buehler, Tatis Jr. and sign Harper, they would certainly come out ahead.

That also assumes that they sign Luis Robert (again) in a "retooling/compete on the fly" mode.

It also means someone like Moustakas or Marwin Gonzalez is now going to be your 3B instead of Machado.  Perhaps Pollock becomes the cheaper version of Harper and they decide the risk is too high to go after one of the whales this offseason.

 

The other big loss that we suffered (playing it out without a rebuild) would be not drafting Madrigal and NOT having another 1stRND/#3 this June.

If they can't sign Machado or Harper in this cycle...with perfect positioning, then they've blown a large part of the advantage they developed by timing this whole thing almost perfectly to not be competing with the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees or Cubs for one of those 2 studs.

Edited by caulfield12
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15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem is that Eaton and Q have decreased in value considerably since their trades, that's the obvious point in your argument.

That said, I think most SoxTalkers would take Sale back for that trade as of today...if you could still have Buehler, Tatis Jr. and sign Harper, they would certainly come out ahead.

That also assumes that they sign Luis Robert (again) in a "retooling/compete on the fly" mode.

It also means someone like Moustakas or Marwin Gonzalez is now going to be your 3B instead of Machado.  Perhaps Pollock becomes the cheaper version of Harper and they decide the risk is too high to go after one of the whales this offseason.

 

The other big loss that we suffered (playing it out without a rebuild) would be not drafting Madrigal and NOT having another 1stRND/#3 this June.

If they can't sign Machado or Harper in this cycle...with perfect positioning, then they've blown a large part of the advantage they developed by timing this whole thing almost perfectly to not be competing with the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees or Cubs for one of those 2 studs.

There is just WAY too much of a butterfly effect to possibly say we would be better off not rebuilding when we did, because as of now we are sitting in a DAMN GOOD position for the next 5-7 years. I wouldn't trade all that to instead have Tatis Jr and a handful of other good prospects because I can guarantee you our system would not be as good.

I mean, let's not pretend that Tatis Jr has turned in to Bregman, or Acuna, or Lindor or anything yet. 

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16 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

There is just WAY too much of a butterfly effect to possibly say we would be better off not rebuilding when we did, because as of now we are sitting in a DAMN GOOD position for the next 5-7 years. I wouldn't trade all that to instead have Tatis Jr and a handful of other good prospects because I can guarantee you our system would not be as good.

I mean, let's not pretend that Tatis Jr has turned in to Bregman, or Acuna, or Lindor or anything yet. 

Time will tell, he's still only 20 years old...and just turned that age three weeks ago.

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5 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I say it every time sometime brings that up, but if we still had Tatis Jr, there is a good chance this rebuild never got kicked off, or least as soon as it did, so now you are talking about trading Eaton, Sale and Q potentially a year later each, so now maybe you are only getting 1 of Kopech/Moncada and only 1 of Eloy/Cease, and possibly no Dane Dunning. James Shields' sucking is what spurred this rebuild.

Not trading a 17-year old prospect, who has a chance of not debuting under Sales control (hard to predict that 2 years out), means they wouldn't rebuild? That seems like a reach.

Edited by soxfan2014
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4 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Not trading a 17-year old prospect, who has a chance of not debuting under Sales control (hard to predict that 2 years out), means they wouldn't rebuild? That seems like a reach.

The problem with this theory is it would require a trade of another prospect for a different starting pitcher in May/June of 2016.

Miley, Pomeranz, Feldman, Nolasco, Rich Hill, Bud Norris, Andrew Cashner, Niese, Drew Hutchison, Nova, LeBlanc, Liriano....would have had to pitch so well for us that we would have remained in the pennant race and not dumped Duke for Tilson as well.

Not seeing many names who would have led to a different ultimate result.

 

You can at least make the argument Drew Pomeranz would have managed that, until falling apart in September.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/16/14936630/san-diego-padres-prospect-anderson-espinoza-ready-to-shine

Ironically, the Red Sox traded their equivalent of Tatis at the time, Anderson Espinoza, but he was already one of their top prospects.   Of course, Pomeranz on the Pads was a much better pitcher than James Shields.

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10 hours ago, hi8is said:

Fulmer was filthy in college before we tinkered his motion to hell and back. 

( I understand his delivery was violent and there was injury concern - but boy, was he a completely different pitcher in college. )

He is at Driveline right now working on pitch creation (ridiculous slow motion video capture of his curveball).  

I'm way more bullish on Fulmer than Hansen.  

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7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Time will tell, he's still only 20 years old...and just turned that age three weeks ago.

Yea but you crowned him a 10 time all star already so why don't you slow your roll a bit and wait for the time to tell 

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10 hours ago, hi8is said:

Fulmer was filthy in college before we tinkered his motion to hell and back. 

( I understand his delivery was violent and there was injury concern - but boy, was he a completely different pitcher in college. )

IIRC it wasn't so much that the Sox tinkered as it was he didn't have a repeatable motion and the Sox tried to give him one.   He could get away with losing the strike zone in college because the opposing hitters aren't nearly as good as minor and major league hitters 

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2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

IIRC it wasn't so much that the Sox tinkered as it was he didn't have a repeatable motion and the Sox tried to give him one.   He could get away with losing the strike zone in college because the opposing hitters aren't nearly as good as minor and major league hitters 

Right, basically the sucky thing is that a repeatable motion didn't seem to make him command any better.

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3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

IIRC it wasn't so much that the Sox tinkered as it was he didn't have a repeatable motion and the Sox tried to give him one.   He could get away with losing the strike zone in college because the opposing hitters aren't nearly as good as minor and major league hitters 

And he feasted on college on hitters chasing offspeed pitches well out of the zone.  In the majors, hitters aren’t even flinching at these pitches. 

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Just now, bmags said:

Right, basically the sucky thing is that a repeatable motion didn't seem to make him command any better.

The good news is he is a black belt in something(I think jiujitsu) so he can fall back on being a ninja

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Just now, Kyyle23 said:

The good news is he is a black belt in something(I think jiujitsu) so he can fall back on being a ninja

Everyone around fulmer loves him. But I think that should give some pause on how much stock you should put in "makeup" at least for a pitcher. A weaker makeup may mean Fulmer is out of baseball at this point, but it also didn't help him understand his body motion any better.

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9 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Yea but you crowned him a 10 time all star already so why don't you slow your roll a bit and wait for the time to tell 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_most_asgame.shtml

Other than Pete Rose, Bill Freehan, a bunch of roiders and handful of players not yet inducted...you’re saying that I basically stated he would be in the Hall of Fame.

Where did I state that in the thread I started...or anything in close proximity to it?

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So your definition of a few million dollars more is...

 

Joc Pederson, 2 years ... say $13mm ... and you trade a mid-level prospect or someone like Fulmer, Bush

v.

Pollock, 3-4 years at $45-65mm ... and you have to give a compensation pick up which is likely more valuable at this time than Fulmer, Bush or any mid-level prospect we'd give up to acquire Joc.

 

Got it.

 

I'm here when you want to admit you're wrong.

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4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Everyone around fulmer loves him. But I think that should give some pause on how much stock you should put in "makeup" at least for a pitcher. A weaker makeup may mean Fulmer is out of baseball at this point, but it also didn't help him understand his body motion any better.

Joe Borchard and Josh Fields had great makeup, too.  Didn’t help all that much.  (Some will put Beckham in there with those two, but nah.)

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