Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Valencia does still torch LHP - .295/.371/.496 slash his last three seasons.  Not really an OF, but did play 17 games there last season.  

He can always platoon with Yonder. And yeah, see a little time in the OF.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

He can always platoon with Yonder. And yeah, see a little time in the OF.

I want to see it happen just to see Balta and DA's head explode.  

[lasttriptotulsa]

26 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Nice signing for them. Perfect guy to hit in the 2-hole.

I just looked up Nick Markakis's stat for the 1st time in forever and to my surprise he's a guy that has a fairly respectable shot at 3000 hits. Just turned 35 and is at 2237. If he can remain an everyday player another 3 or 4 years more he might come close.

[Jose Abreu]

35 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Guess the Braves are out on Joc.

I would assume that we’re closing in on this trade

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Valencia does still torch LHP - .295/.371/.496 slash his last three seasons.  Not really an OF, but did play 17 games in RF last season.  

He is a perfect platoon partner for several players currently on the roster. He could play RF against lefties instead of Palka/Jay, as well as getting some at-bats at DH/1B against lefties too in place of Alonso. Valencia essentially a better version of Matt Davidson. The guy has always mashed left handed pitching.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Correlation between speed and defensive prowess exists, but Joc Pederson is an average to good defensive center fielder. More speed would make him better but he isn’t bad. And honestly, given that Engel has a noodle arm, he might be more effective in our home outfield than Engel. 

Pederson and Jay would currently be in the bottom 5 guys on the Sox as far as positional players speed goes. I'll just automatically say Castillo and McCann are slower. Machado is as fast as Pederson. I can accept slow OF's in the corners but it really emphasizes the need for speed in CF then, God help our pitchers.

[username]

Max sprint speed on statcast does not equal play speed. Anyone that’s played the OF will tell you quickness and first step is far more important than straight line speed on most plays. 

Avi has extreme sprint speed for his size. Does he play a good RF? Absolutely not. Jay and Joc have both ranged from above average to at worst slightly below in defensive fWAR. After what we’ve trotted out there I straight up don’t get what the issue is. 

[mqr]

18 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Pederson and Jay would currently be in the bottom 5 guys on the Sox as far as positional players speed goes. I'll just automatically say Castillo and McCann are slower. Machado is as fast as Pederson. I can accept slow OF's in the corners but it really emphasizes the need for speed in CF then, God help our pitchers.

Worth noting that the White Sox are one of the fastest teams in baseball.

[Bob Sacamano]

We need a rumor in either thread, badly.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

But it’s still hard to measure who gets the best reads or best initial jumps and takes the best routes.

How many balls did Pederson field that less than 50% of CFers would be expected to make that play?  That would be more interesting to me rather than just flat out sprint speed.

The last 2 years, Joc got to 0 balls as a CF that, for an average CF, were 50/50 or worse. He got to 2 balls out of 40 as an outfielder in general that were less than 50/50 shots. He is fairly reliable at nearly routine plays but apparently since 2017 he will not get to anything difficult at any OF position.

This performance is a notable downgrade from what he was doing in 2015-2016, where he appears to have gotten to roughly an average number of difficult balls.

[Kyyle23]

8 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

We need a rumor in either thread, badly.

Did you really check this?  Come on now

[Jake]

About Sprint Speed metrics:

Quote

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” on individual plays. For a player’s seasonal average, the following two types of plays currently qualify for inclusion in Sprint Speed. The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player’s seasonal average.

* Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding being a runner on second base when an extra base hit happens
* Home to first on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls.

I think this method is basically fine but I think it will give you a number that is too low for players who are nursing injuries or don't regularly hustle. I don't know if that applies to Joc or not. Worth noting that Statcast's outfield defense metric (which considers only the player's ability to catch balls, not their arm) had Joc doing quite poorly this past year and 2017 but was a touch above average in 2016 (when he was still in CF if I recall correctly).

 

 

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Or Moncada or Yolmer

Fun fact: Yoan had a 98 wRC+ against lefties in the second half, not far off from his performance against righties.

[Southwest Sider]

11 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

We need a rumor in either thread, badly.

I'm thinking we might hear a little bit more about these rumors later today. Just a feeling, no sauce. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

28 minutes ago, raBBit said:

how is this spring speed calculated.

However Statcast does it. It;s how much ground you cover per second. I think they use it mostly when running the bases. However you can also use statcast Catch Probability if you prefer among qualified OF's. Perderson was #75 with an OAA ( outs above average of -7, Their list of qualified OF'ers only goes up to 87. SO Pederson was 75 out of 87and thats with the majority of time played in LF.  Jay was #63 at -3. Avi was #30 with +4.  Engel was a +16

We can break it down furthur with how many opportunitys Pederson had for 5 star catches  , he was 0 out of 10 chances. 4 star catches 1 out of 11. 3 star catches 5 out of 10. 2 star catches 13 of 17. 1 star catch 7 of 8. Go here if you need how to better understand this data.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

[shipps]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

 

  Hide contents

Did you really check this?  Come on now

 

No I did not! So jokes on you pal. 

 

[Sockin]

There's probably not going to be anything  today because of the HoF.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Sockin

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

34 minutes ago, username said:

Max sprint speed on statcast does not equal play speed. Anyone that’s played the OF will tell you quickness and first step is far more important than straight line speed on most plays. 

Avi has extreme sprint speed for his size. Does he play a good RF? Absolutely not. Jay and Joc have both ranged from above average to at worst slightly below in defensive fWAR. After what we’ve trotted out there I straight up don’t get what the issue is. 

How does statcast sprint speed not equal play speed ? They are measuring your speed when you play . These are not 100 yard dash speeds that statcast uses. There are plenty of guys who get great jumps and reads but that doesn't make up for the ability to run down balls in the gap that much slower guys with great jumps and read cannot get to. The jumps and reads are much more important when balls are hit straight at you than balls in the gaps. Much more statistical data has been provided by Balta and myself. If you as well as many other want to insist Avi was  a terrible OF I cannot control those thoughts But whether you use sprint speed or Outs Above Average Avi was a far better fielder than Joc Pederson was in 2018. Why was he better ? Apparently his speed made him get to a lot of balls many slower OF's couldn't get to. Avi +4  Pederson -7 in OAA. Not even close.

[GenericUserName]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

How does statcast sprint speed not equal play speed ? They are measuring your speed when you play . These are not 100 yard dash speeds that statcast uses. There are plenty of guys who get great jumps and reads but that doesn't make up for the ability to run down balls in the gap that much slower guys with great jumps and read cannot get to. The jumps and reads are much more important when balls are hit straight at you than balls in the gaps. Much more statistical data has been provided by Balta and myself. If you as well as many other want to insist Avi was  a terrible OF I cannot control those thoughts But whether you use sprint speed or Outs Above Average Avi was a far better fielder than Joc Pederson was in 2018. Why was he better ? Apparently his speed made him get to a lot of balls many slower OF's couldn't get to. Avi +4  Pederson -7 in OAA. Not even close.

Regardless of the rest of your argument, statcast sprint speed isn't really useful. They measure it as the fast you are going at the fast moment during your sprint. It does not measure acceleration, average speed over the route or distance, route efficiency, or jump. While it is better to have a higher top end speed, if the other parts are not there then it doesn't matter. 

[tray]

I would have preferred that the Sox sign Avi for a year than to trade any decent prospect(s) for an OF that is going to be a placeholder for Luis Robert, et.al.

No problem with getting Pederson other than it signals that the Sox may have given up on Harper.  Pederson could hit 25-30 HR with a decent amount of ABs. We could end up having a team with loads of power. Sox fans love HRs , fireworks, and walk-off wins.

Now like the rest of us, I am just crossing my fingers and hoping we get Machado.  He is a game changer, especially for the Sox where he would fit like a glove, Hope he gets announced as our dude at SoxFest..

 

 

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

I would assume that we’re closing in on this trade

I think your right. Wonder if it could be a 3-way with the Marlins with Realmuto going to LA?

[GreenSox]

2 hours ago, lasttriptotulsa said:

I just looked up Nick Markakis's stat for the 1st time in forever and to my surprise he's a guy that has a fairly respectable shot at 3000 hits. Just turned 35 and is at 2237. If he can remain an everyday player another 3 or 4 years more he might come close.

Now he's an older vet who has maintained a consistently good OBP (in contrast to.....).  Much better buy at $6 million.

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes it is and I acknowledged that point. All one has to do is look at the best CF'ers and look at how their speed relates to it. This is not rocket science. Mickey Mantle, Paul Blair WIllie Mays . Trout, Buxton ,Engel, Kiermaier and on and on. Do we really want the slowest OF in baseball regardless of jumps and reads when we are trying to instill confidence in our young pitchers ? The ERA's and FIP's are going to take a beating with an OF with Eloy, Pederson and whoever out there. This is not  even debatable. I'm surprised because of the urgency in some posters to get Engel out of CF how willing we are to accept a terrible OF defense with a guy who won't even be here in 3 years at the expense of our pitching staff. The pitchers are the key to the rebuild not Joc Pederson in CF.

 

Scoring runs is relevant to winning games too. Nobody is debating whether or not Adam Engel is better in CF than Joc Pederson. He is. What people are doing is looking at Pederson and Engel's overall performance as a player. I think what people are saying (and anyone can correct me if I'm wrong), is that offensively Pederson is so far superior to Engel, that they are willing to sacrifice CF defense for the huge offensive upside. Especially given that Pederson performs well enough defensively to man CF or any OF position. He is not atrocious out there. 

Adam Engel should not be starting on any team, unless they are not worried about losing games. Which last year, the Sox weren't. The Sox want to start winning games, which is why they will not have Engel in CF everyday. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, raBBit said:

how is this spring speed calculated.

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard.

That was from Fangraphs

If you want to use catch probability here is the definition. Catch Probability expresses the likelihood for a ball to be caught by an outfielder based on opportunity time, distance needed, and direction. “Opportunity time” starts when the ball is released by the pitcher, and “distance needed” is the shortest distance needed to make the catch. Learn more about how direction is accounted for here. Read more about the details of how Catch Probability works here. .

we know that not every fly ball is created equally. An out may be an out in the scorebook, but there's a very different amount of skill required to catch the lazy fly ball that has a 95 percent Catch Probability as opposed to the sinking liner that has a 10 percent Catch Probability. Regardless of how it "looks," we should attempt to credit that difference in difficulty accordingly.

So that's exactly what we're doing. Since Statcast™ tells us the exact start position on the field for each fielder and also tracks the hang time of each batted ball, we know the two most important pieces of data to define the difficulty of a catch opportunity are: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? (Which direction he was running is also important, and while it's not incorporated right now, it will be rolled into the formula early in the season.)

For each of those two data points, there are important specifics to point out. First, we're using "Distance Needed," not actual "Distance Covered," and that's because a fielder who runs a poor route and artificially adds more feet to his path shouldn't get extra credit. Second, we're starting the clock at the pitcher's release, not the point of batted ball contact, and we're calling that Opportunity Time. Why? Because we've seen great fielders like Kevin Kiermaier specifically talk about reading the catcher's signs to anticipate where the pitch will be and get a head start in that direction. That's a skill, and that deserves credit.

this was from https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017/c-217802340

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Stealth G.O.A.T. said:

Scoring runs is relevant to winning games too. Nobody is debating whether or not Adam Engel is better in CF than Joc Pederson. He is. What people are doing is looking at Pederson and Engel's overall performance as a player. I think what people are saying (and anyone can correct me if I'm wrong), is that offensively Pederson is so far superior to Engel, that they are willing to sacrifice CF defense for the huge offensive upside. Especially given that Pederson performs well enough defensively to man CF or any OF position. He is not atrocious out there. 

Adam Engel should not be starting on any team, unless they are not worried about losing games. Which last year, the Sox weren't. The Sox want to start winning games, which is why they will not have Engel in CF everyday. 

75th out of 87 qualified outfielders in Catch Probability in a year he played mostly LF ? How is that not bad ? Catch probability is explained in the above post if you care to read it before I hear about reads and jumps.

[Stealth G.O.A.T.]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

75th out of 87 qualified outfielders in Catch Probability in a year he played mostly LF ? How is that not bad ? Catch probability is explained in the above post if you care to read it before I hear about reads and jumps.

What is Engel's wrc+?