Dick Allen Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The funny thing is, with the argument here, both sides are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, FT35 said: I could get on board with this. The thought would be if they make a decent jump in 2019 through big FA adds and internal growth, that they will add more before 2020 crunch time--possibly giving them a push down the 2020 contending path. Like another stud SP, more bullpen specialists, another couple bat upgrades. I think if that all happens, you'll see the competitive team shell starting to form. One that might be clear enough that they can begin considering moving prospect assets to help the MLB cause. Yeah, there is just a massive gulf between major league and the rest of the prospects after you bake in Eloy. Now, i've said before, if 2019 on the farm is as good as 2018 was bad, then the dynamic of everything changes, and maybe it pays off to have advanced on a talent like pederson early. But our track record with player dev has, in my mind, changed little. The best examples of it to me recently are Anderson, Leury, Narvaez and ...Trayce Thompson? Flowers? Sox weren't really impressed with most, and then when they are shipped off they've seemed to have taken leaps. Hard to get a gauge. Development isn't linear, but when you have the white sox track record, it's hard to bank on regression righting the ship. They need to be urgent to make sure their mass of talent hits as often as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Orlando said: If it's contingent on trading Pederson, why would a Pederson trade come after? But before or after, he's bound to be right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Orlando said: I have a hard time believing we win a bidding war. I do still think it's possible our interest ends up being as a facilitator. Hahn has worked well with Friedman in that role and they've been largely successful trades for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, bmags said: I like Joc Pederson, and am not ready to punt on 2020 the way many are. Punting 2019 should bother some people. Punting 2020 should be completely unacceptable. Maybe they're not quite there yet in 2020, but if they're still running minor league filler out there on a daily basis that is a huge problem and people should not be happy with that. Edited January 23, 2019 by mqr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 In roughly 3800 innings, Pederson has a -2.1 UZR/150 +6.1 in LF, -3.6 in CF. This suggests he is basically an average outfielder. Probably just a touch below average in CF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Eminor3rd said: In roughly 3800 innings, Pederson has a -2.1 UZR/150 +6.1 in LF, -3.6 in CF. This suggests he is basically an average outfielder. Probably just a touch below average in CF. Isn't he kind of a big dude? I feel like he will be shifting to a corner spot soon (heck, the Dodgers did it last year in favor of playing a 1B in CF). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, bmags said: I have a hard time believing we win a bidding war. I do still think it's possible our interest ends up being as a facilitator. Hahn has worked well with Friedman in that role and they've been largely successful trades for him. I doubt it would be to facilitate. The Sox want to add Joc Pederson to their team. Will they trade what it takes to get him? No idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stealth G.O.A.T. Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: The Sox have no #1 and no # 2 starter. If they wanted to compete they would have gone out and got a 1 or 2 starter. Nova isn't that. If you want to pin all your hopes and dreams on Giolito, Lopez, Rodon Covey Banuelos and go right ahead but if you think its only me who just doesn't get it you are sorely mistaken and you are in for a huge disappointment. Nova is nothing more than a guy who eats innings. If he does that as a 5th starter, then he did his job. Anything extra you get out of him is a bonus. LOL, I am not pinning my hopes and dreams on anything. I am simply stating what the Sox point of view is right now. They feel if they land Machado and a few other pieces, and there is improvements and development across the board from their young players, with the solid bullpen they've put together, they could sneak in and grab a division title in a division that isn't very good. Nothing more. I am not in for a huge disappointment if they don't. They just see an opportunity. Nothing more. If they are unbelievably bad in 2019, there are much bigger problems than failing to catch the Indians. It would mean that many of their players did not take a step forward and even took steps back. Also, the offseason is not over. I believe more moves will be made at a few positions. Edited January 23, 2019 by Stealth G.O.A.T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, Orlando said: Which means they have zero leverage on the price of Pederson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said: If it's that low, other teams should also be all over. Why are teams going to give up real assets when you can just go sign a guy like Nick Markakis for $6M? Still some good players on the FA market. I don't think any team is going to be bowling LAD over for Joc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: Which means they have zero leverage on the price of Pederson. If they were negotiating with one team, correct. Multiple teams at least helps them get a decent/good offer. Edited January 23, 2019 by soxfan2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said: Why are teams going to give up real assets when you can just go sign a guy like Nick Markakis for $6M? Still some good players on the FA market. I don't think any team is going to be bowling LAD over for Joc. This is exactly what I was saying the other day. They got the same amount of control with Markakis as you would get with Pederson too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, mqr said: The second wild card team is almost certainly going to be better than Cleveland. They were this year. Cleveland was barely better than the first team out. I don't think I agree. Unless you think the Twins or Angels take a big jump, the only two contenders for that will be Oakland and Tampa Bay. I know Oakland just won 97 games but their rotation is nearly as bad as ours right now (their #1 SP right now is... Mike Fiers?), I see a big drop off for them this year. Tampa Bay is a wild card itself, I could see them winning 82 games or I could see them winning 95. Either way I don't see how either of those teams are almost certainly better than Cleveland. I'd actually put the Angels above the A's right now but it'll probably come down to health. Edited January 23, 2019 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, southsider2k5 said: This is exactly what I was saying the other day. They got the same amount of control with Markakis as you would get with Pederson too. Isn't the story that Markakis took a discount though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: In roughly 3800 innings, Pederson has a -2.1 UZR/150 +6.1 in LF, -3.6 in CF. This suggests he is basically an average outfielder. Probably just a touch below average in CF. His career numbers continue to be a poor reflection of what he did the last 2 years. 2014-2016 I will totally agree, he was a solid OF. The last 2 years, his numbers have been generally weak no matter which position you put him in. He's good enough at routine plays but he's got no shot at anything that isn't hit close to where he's playing - Out of like 20 balls that were 50/50 balls for normal outfielders the past 2 seasons he got to something like 1 or 2. You're quoting Edgar Martinez's career numbers to me as an argument that he should be our DH in 2019 as he's a hall of fame caliber player - ignoring the minor fact that he isn't the same player he was during the 1990s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, mqr said: Isn't the story that Markakis took a discount though? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, mqr said: Isn't the story that Markakis took a discount though? that's the claim. Also if you look at it, there are metric F-ton of OFs still sitting on the sidelines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Tell me when are we contending again? I just want to get this down for future reference. Question wasn't for me, but I'll answer my own opinion. Contending for division -- as early as 2020, but realistically 2021 or 2022. Contending for a pennant -- as early as 2021, but realistically 2022 or 2023. Contending for a WS -- as early as 2022, but realistically 2023 - 2024. Obviously many, many moves can be made that change that timeline. Also development of our younger guys play an important role of moving this up or back. General feeling this: Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc. have talent, but like any other rookie pitchers or batters will have their flashes of greatness and learning experiences. They will also have to build up innings and not fizzle as the year wears on. Then build up playoff experience. To me, 2020 is the learning experience, 2021 is putting it together, but when your arms fizzle down the end (think of Braves this year or Astros on their first year of making playoffs). 2022 is when you probably have expectations of winning an ALDS and where I'd be disappointed if we didn't. 2023 is when I start having WS expectations if all goes to plan. Again, this all can shift up a year or back a year based on injuries and setbacks. AKA -- kopech loses a year... if dunning ends up losing a year this year .... burdi losing a year ... adolfo losing half a year .... Robert losing half a year .... Hansen losing his control and prospect status .... fulmer being a bust ..... burger losing almost 2 years... This list will continue to grow. Maybe losing out on Macahdo and Harper.. etc. etc. etc. A successful (AND REALISITIC) rebuild (IN MY OPINION) would be this: 2019: Acquire Machado to 8-9 year contract ... I actually want him at ages 34/35. I think he's a pure bat ala Beltre, Pujols, MIggy. Don't think ages 34/35 will blow you away, but think he'll still be good. Acquire major league talent on a 2-3 year basis that pushes the young guys. learning experiences, no major injuries, giolito takes a nice step forward. lopez continues to progress. Get a good, healthy year out of Rodon to where we either extend or trade him. Moncada takes a giant step forward to being a fringe all-star each year. 77 wins and competitive through the whole year. 2020: Bring up Madrigal. Have one of our OF prospects force the issue and be up by June. Cease up. Kopech back. Have our top prospects learn at the MLB level. 82-85 wins. Be in the hunt through August. 2021: Build build build upon the last year. bring in TOP TALENT supplemental FA to fill holes of prospects that didn't pan out. spend spend spend. 90-94 wins. Win the division. win 1-2 playoff games 2022: Build upon the last year. no slump after making the postseason. 90-95 wins. Win ALDS series. compete in ALCS .. winning at least 2 games. 2023-2025: Make or win the World Series or Bust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: This is exactly what I was saying the other day. They got the same amount of control with Markakis as you would get with Pederson too. Maybe due to his age and the fact he AVERAGED a 1 fWAR each year from 2015-17. How is that comparable to Pederson’s career? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said: I doubt it would be to facilitate. The Sox want to add Joc Pederson to their team. Will they trade what it takes to get him? No idea And if they don't have what it takes, why not get a piece of the pie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: that's the claim. Also if you look at it, there are metric F-ton of OFs still sitting on the sidelines. Then why don't we just sign one to a 2-year deal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: Maybe due to his age and the fact he AVERAGED a 1 fWAR each year from 2015-17. How is that comparable to Pederson’s career? I can't believe I agree with caulfield. Guys Pederson is 26, Markakis is 35. How many times do sox have to get burned assuming older players can repeat past performance before we stop believing the marginal FAs will be any sort of improvement? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, soxfan2014 said: Then why don't we just sign one to a 2-year deal? The answer here should be obvious as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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