Joc Pederson: ??​​​​​​​?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[Balta1701]

The White Sox should not be making fair value deals right now where they send out guys with many years of control.

There will be a time for that. But it is not this day. 

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be making fair value deals right now where they send out guys with many years of control.

There will be a time for that. But it is not this day. 

This.  Trading expendable pieces or relievers is one thing.  Trading legitimate prospects is another.  

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure why - we are overvaluing middling prospects at this point. ]

The value of Rutherford if he's a 50FV prospect is roughly $17 million - you could argue that Rutherford is a 45FV which would bring him all the way down to about 8 million in value. Let's say, for the sake of this, that Rutherford is trending upwards though and is worth about $17 million.

Flores isn't worth much - maybe $3 millionish. So let's say our total value moved is about 20 million. Obviously, future value is worth more to this team than present, but it's not by as much as you'd think given that the White Sox want to expedite the window and have this year be a year of potential surprise with next year being a year of definite contention (in their eyes), but lets say for the sake that Rutherford's future value increases the value of a win by $3 million per - he's worth roughly 2 wins now (assuming 10 million = 1 WAR but as we know, WAR values aren't exact) so we get Rutherford and Flores up to being worth $26 million.

Pederson would need to accumulate 2.6 WAR in 2 years to equal the net value of our offer. Now volatility of a guy like Rutherford changes things a bit, but at most, it's safe to say that if Pederson is a 2 WAR+ player each of the next two years, that his present day value great surpasses any Future Value for Rutherford.

I know people don't want to give up any prospects - the infatuation with all of them is very real - but from a sheer value standpoint that would be a fine swap for the White Sox. Not one I think they're interested in - as I think they'd rather move relievers and more wild card position players than a top 100 prospect, but it certainly would be a defendable trade for the White Sox. 

At this stage of the rebuild, cost of future value is worth WAY more than present WAR.  The goal of WAR is 2019 is an awful one to put on an equal level with the future.  The entire point of this process is to save as much of all forms of future capital as possible so that when this team is finally ready to go, the Sox have the ability to sustain a run and not be a one hit wonder.

There is nothing as worthless as what WAR that Pederson would put up in 2019.  THE ONLY reason to value Pederson at all is as a potential asset to attract Machado.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be making fair value deals right now where they send out guys with many years of control.

There will be a time for that. But it is not this day. 

This is a fair point, but one could easily argue that the White Sox win the deal by enough that it's logical for both sides. True FV of of Pederson over the next two years is probably close to $50 million. Rutherford and Flores have less than a 35% chance (based on their FV likely outputs) of being worth 50 million over the duration of their years of control. 

The future value of Rutherford matters - I wouldn't argue otherwise - but it means less to this organization than you'd think. Rutherford is the 3rd rated CF'er in HIS own organization. He has to leap frog Gonzalez, Basebe and Robert at his position alone. Pair that with the fact that Pederson is young, and has power that plays in the corners better than Rutherford, and you could easily argue that the Sox would come out ahead in sheer value which is frankly all that matters when making a deal like this. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[smellysox]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think if we land Joc, many here will be disappointed with the price.  I really hope I’m wrong about that though.

I think you're right.  And They're not going to land Joc unless they know they have Manny.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this stage of the rebuild, cost of future value is worth WAY more than present WAR.  The goal of WAR is 2019 is an awful one to put on an equal level with the future.  The entire point of this process is to save as much of all forms of future capital as possible so that when this team is finally ready to go, the Sox have the ability to sustain a run and not be a one hit wonder.

There is nothing as worthless as what WAR that Pederson would put up in 2019.  THE ONLY reason to value Pederson at all is as a potential asset to attract Machado.

Yes, but the 2020 WAR for Pederson is more valuable than any FV WAR expected from Rutherford in 2022. By that time, you've cycled through more prospects and Rutherfords impact becomes even less valuable. FV is all about organizational cycles with trades - Rutherford is far from the majors, and has a log jam of superior (currently) talent in front of him. You have to account for the difference between Rutherford and the organizations next options, which one could easily argue are greater than Rutherford but that same argument can not be made for Pederson. The odds of the prospects outperforming Pederson is significantly less than it is that they outperform Rutherford. 

 

I also couldn't disagree with you more on 2019 WAR being worthless; that's pure nonsense. As I have stated, this year needs to trend upward; this team needs to take significant steps forward. Now is the time to do so. There's value to Pederson because he's a good MLB player and this team needs to add a few of those because last year they had zero players as good as Joc Pederson. That's a problem. You can't expect your prospects to fill out every hole in the organization. That's a pipe dream that is very unlikely to come to fruition. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this stage of the rebuild, cost of future value is worth WAY more than present WAR.  The goal of WAR is 2019 is an awful one to put on an equal level with the future.  The entire point of this process is to save as much of all forms of future capital as possible so that when this team is finally ready to go, the Sox have the ability to sustain a run and not be a one hit wonder.

There is nothing as worthless as what WAR that Pederson would put up in 2019.  THE ONLY reason to value Pederson at all is as a potential asset to attract Machado.

I agree with your first paragraph.  Your second takes is a bit far.  There is some value to whatever Pederson provides in 2019, and certainly 2020.  He is an enormous updates over Engel.  I do agree that a big part of his value is showing MM you're serious about putting a decent team together for him in 2019. 

I do think adding Pederson, Machado and a decent 5th starter gives this team at least a punchers chance in easily the worst division in baseball.  That is worth something.  But, I do agree that it is not worth trading Rutherford, even if you're not in love with him.  I would, however, trade Rutherford for a controllable SP - hence my suggestion of somehow getting Urias back in this proposed 3 way.  

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This is a fair point, but one could easily argue that the White Sox win the deal by enough that it's logical for both sides. True FV of of Pederson over the next two years is probably close to $50 million. Rutherford and Flores have less than a 35% chance (based on their FV likely outputs) of being worth 50 million over the duration of their years of control. 

The future value of Rutherford matters - I wouldn't argue otherwise - but it means less to this organization than you'd think. Rutherford is the 3rd rated CF'er in HIS own organization. He has to leap frog Gonzalez, Basebe and Robert at his position alone. Pair that with the fact that Pederson is young, and has power that plays in the corners better than Rutherford, and you could easily argue that the Sox would come out ahead in sheer value which is frankly all that matters when making a deal like this. 

No it is not. 

You can get fair value for an automobile, but if you already own 5 automobiles for only 2 drivers in your vehicle and are in a huge amount of debt, then the 6th automobile will not provide you appropriate value even if you get a very fair price for it. Even if the new car is nicer than the ones we already have.

[Balta1701]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I do think adding Pederson, Machado and a decent 5th starter gives this team at least a punchers chance in easily the worst division in baseball.  That is worth something.  But, I do agree that it is not worth trading Rutherford, even if you're not in love with him.  I would, however, trade Rutherford for a controllable SP - hence my suggestion of somehow getting Urias back in this proposed 3 way.  

I would certainly do that too but now we're at the point where the Dodgers are just giving stuff away in the hypothetical. I'd happily take free things from them too.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I would certainly do that too but now we're at the point where the Dodgers are just giving stuff away in the hypothetical. I'd happily take free things from them too.

Acquiring Realmuto is going to cost them.

Dodgers giving up Ruiz, Pederson and Urias for Realmuto and also landing Fry and maybe a guy like Flores/Lambert from the Sox as well doesn't seem so terribly lopsided. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, but the 2020 WAR for Pederson is more valuable than any FV WAR expected from Rutherford in 2022. By that time, you've cycled through more prospects and Rutherfords impact becomes even less valuable. FV is all about organizational cycles with trades - Rutherford is far from the majors, and has a log jam of superior (currently) talent in front of him. You have to account for the difference between Rutherford and the organizations next options, which one could easily argue are greater than Rutherford but that same argument can not be made for Pederson. The odds of the prospects outperforming Pederson is significantly less than it is that they outperform Rutherford. 

 

I also couldn't disagree with you more on 2019 WAR being worthless; that's pure nonsense. As I have stated, this year needs to trend upward; this team needs to take significant steps forward. Now is the time to do so. There's value to Pederson because he's a good MLB player and this team needs to add a few of those because last year they had zero players as good as Joc Pederson. That's a problem. You can't expect your prospects to fill out every hole in the organization. That's a pipe dream that is very unlikely to come to fruition. 

This isn't an A or B choice.  There are other trades and tons of cheap free agents if you want to speed up the process.  Again, I have zero interest in wasting future assets simply to make 2019 look prettier on paper. That is the absolute wrong strategy for a team starting its 3rd season of rebuilding.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No it is not. 

You can get fair value for an automobile, but if you already own 5 automobiles for only 2 drivers in your vehicle and are in a huge amount of debt, then the 6th automobile will not provide you appropriate value even if you get a very fair price for it. Even if the new car is nicer than the ones we already have.

The White Sox currently own ZERO automobiles that work. They have 30 of them in the shop, being worked on to hopefully win a race, but none of them have ever won a race before - most of them have never even participated. Joc has won races and participated and adding him to the shop adds one guaranteed asset to a group of none. 

The number one thing so many people are struggling to grasp is that prospects are volatile. If the plan is to wait for all your prospects to contend, and to add one good MLB player (Machado) then you're setting yourself up for failure. You need to compliment the young talent with proven, quality, veterans. Joc is exactly that.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox currently own ZERO automobiles that work. They have 30 of them in the shop, being worked on to hopefully win a race, but none of them have ever won a race before - most of them have never even participated. Joc has won races and participated and adding him to the shop adds one guaranteed asset to a group of none. 

The number one thing so many people are struggling to grasp is that prospects are volatile. If the plan is to wait for all your prospects to contend, and to add one good MLB player (Machado) then you're setting yourself up for failure. You need to compliment the young talent with proven, quality, veterans. Joc is exactly that.

They are also not racing on the top circuit for 2019 and probably not 2020 either, so having race cars for this season is a waste of assets.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox currently own ZERO automobiles that work. They have 30 of them in the shop, being worked on to hopefully win a race, but none of them have ever won a race before - most of them have never even participated. Joc has won races and participated and adding him to the shop adds one guaranteed asset to a group of none. 

The number one thing so many people are struggling to grasp is that prospects are volatile. If the plan is to wait for all your prospects to contend, and to add one good MLB player (Machado) then you're setting yourself up for failure. You need to compliment the young talent with proven, quality, veterans. Joc is exactly that.

Who will be a free agent by the time this team is a contender again.  Wait two years and sign him then, just like you would have to if you traded for him now.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

 

The number one thing so many people are struggling to grasp is that prospects are volatile. If the plan is to wait for all your prospects to contend, and to add one good MLB player (Machado) then you're setting yourself up for failure. You need to compliment the young talent with proven, quality, veterans. Joc is exactly that.

I'm a big fan of cashing in on Rutherford now if other teams are buying him as a legit top 100 prospect still.  Don't forget the Marlins front office has a lot of people that drafted him, so they might either really like him or dislike him.  The reason to cash in on Rutherford now is because Birmingham doesn't seem like it will be kind to his slugging pct.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

This isn't an A or B choice.  There are other trades and tons of cheap free agents if you want to speed up the process.  Again, I have zero interest in wasting future assets simply to make 2019 look prettier on paper. That is the absolute wrong strategy for a team starting its 3rd season of rebuilding.

Cheap free agents are cheap because they aren't expected to produce between 2.5-3.5 WAR. There are currently zero position players on the market (not named Manny/Bryce) that are expected to produce that kind of output. 

What separates a successful rebuild from an unsuccessful one is the GM being able to evaluate his own prospects and trade the right ones for viable Major League talent. Hahn has seen these guys more than anyone else - he needs to decide who is going to pan out and who isn't and dump the ones with less expectations while they still have value.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They are also not racing on the top circuit for 2019 and probably not 2020 either, so having race cars for this season is a waste of assets.

Well, if the Sox aren't competitive in 2020 then this has gone horribly wrong. If it's 2021 before the Sox even contend for the postseason, then their rebuild took 6 years and has no sustainability of youth, and was a failure given the pieces they traded to kick this thing off. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be making fair value deals right now where they send out guys with many years of control.

There will be a time for that. But it is not this day. 

 

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This.  Trading expendable pieces or relievers is one thing.  Trading legitimate prospects is another.  

I don’t disagree, but if we’re seriously after Joc I don’t think it’s crazy to think Hahn might be willing to pay a fair price for him.  Hopefully that’s not the case and we find a way to get him on the cheap.

[raBBit]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be making fair value deals right now where they send out guys with many years of control.

There will be a time for that. But it is not this day. 

They won't be able to hold everyone on the 40 the next couple years. A 1/3 of the top thirty prospects ended the year in A+. They're all going to be needing protection soon. 

That's why trading Alex Call made sense (who they traded him for is another story).

That's why potentially trading one of Fry/Bummer makes sense.

It's not all cut and dried.

[raBBit]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Who will be a free agent by the time this team is a contender again.  Wait two years and sign him then, just like you would have to if you traded for him now.

What exactly is this based on?

[GREEDY]

Petition for everyone here to disclose in their signature if they think it is important the Sox win 75 games this year as opposed to 65.  

I think that would help eliminate half of the arguments here.

There are folks that care about the product they have to watch this season.  There are also folks that think the team needs to take a step fowward before it can leap into contention.  Then there are folks that only care about the window (which didn't get ANY closer after this time last year).  Not saying who is right or wrong (the people who think they can win in 19 or maybe even 20 are wrong).

Edited January 24, 2019 by GREEDY

[raBBit]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I'm a big fan of cashing in on Rutherford now if other teams are buying him as a legit top 100 prospect still.  Don't forget the Marlins front office has a lot of people that drafted him, so they might either really like him or dislike him.  The reason to cash in on Rutherford now is because Birmingham doesn't seem like it will be kind to his slugging pct.

The balls are changing in AA this year though. Of course that will have a relative increase all parks/leagues but it should be less of an offensive wasteland. 

[Soxbadger]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This isn't an A or B choice.  There are other trades and tons of cheap free agents if you want to speed up the process.  Again, I have zero interest in wasting future assets simply to make 2019 look prettier on paper. That is the absolute wrong strategy for a team starting its 3rd season of rebuilding.

Im not sure why people dont agree with this.

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Who will be a free agent by the time this team is a contender again.  Wait two years and sign him then, just like you would have to if you traded for him now.

Jeeze, I'd like to be the GM of a team that says go ahead and take 5 years to rebuild - even though the 4 main assets you traded for were less than 2 years from big league ready. (Cease, Kopech, Moncada and Eloy). You don't trade for guys that are ready to play AA and AAA baseball, and then waste three years of their control on bad baseball teams. That's not how rebuilds work. Young guys should be coming up to compliment the pieces they add this year and next. 

[turnin' two]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure why - we are overvaluing middling prospects at this point. ]

The value of Rutherford if he's a 50FV prospect is roughly $17 million - you could argue that Rutherford is a 45FV which would bring him all the way down to about 8 million in value. Let's say, for the sake of this, that Rutherford is trending upwards though and is worth about $17 million.

Flores isn't worth much - maybe $3 millionish. So let's say our total value moved is about 20 million. Obviously, future value is worth more to this team than present, but it's not by as much as you'd think given that the White Sox want to expedite the window and have this year be a year of potential surprise with next year being a year of definite contention (in their eyes), but lets say for the sake that Rutherford's future value increases the value of a win by $3 million per - he's worth roughly 2 wins now (assuming 10 million = 1 WAR but as we know, WAR values aren't exact) so we get Rutherford and Flores up to being worth $26 million.

Pederson would need to accumulate 2.6 WAR in 2 years to equal the net value of our offer. Now volatility of a guy like Rutherford changes things a bit, but at most, it's safe to say that if Pederson is a 2 WAR+ player each of the next two years, that his present day value surpasses any Future Value for Rutherford.

I know people don't want to give up any prospects - the infatuation with all of them is very real - but from a sheer value standpoint that would be a fine swap for the White Sox. Not one I think they're interested in - as I think they'd rather move relievers and more wild card position players than a top 100 prospect, but it certainly would be a defendable trade for the White Sox. 

On its own though, the deal makes no sense.  Why would you trade for Pederson.  He does nothing for the team the next two years if he is the big acquisition.  There is no reason to trade Flores on his own for him.  Now if you want to be in "go for it" mode, and sign Harper or Machado, along with Keuchel and make a play for a WC or division, that is another story.  But I don't see any reason to trade even middling prospects for 2 years of a good player, if he is the headline move of the offseason.  Nova, Alonso, Jay, Colome Herrera and Pederson are not enough to make you competitive with the Indians.  If one of the whales and some starting pitching are added, well then maybe.  But until that time, or until that is certain, trading a guy like Rutherford for Joc would be insane.