FS: Sox draft philosophy on college vs prep and its impact

[NorthSideSox72]

Y2Jimmy takes a look at the White Sox front office's apparent draft philosophy and the impact of going college-heavy in recent years.

 

[bmags]

Great post Y2Jimmy,

This is well said

"Players who develop at a slower pace or incur a setback of any variety don't have youth on their side in the same fashion that a high school prospect would. Luckily for the Chicago White Sox though, landing players on top prospect lists at various publications isn't the organizational goal of the draft. It is to supply the organization with enough premium talent to compile a critical mass that will be used as currency in addition to filling holes in Chicago."

Sox have avoided HS and really never went for it with a big latam class. Starting to wonder if it's scout preference or acknowledgment of difficulty the org has in developing young, raw talent.

Would really like to see more from the pitching side from Hostetlers drafts. 

[ron883]

Great stuff @Y2Jimmy @Y2Jimmy0 (not sure which one it is?). Great stuff per usual futuresox.

[Y2Jimmy0]

57 minutes ago, bmags said:

Great post Y2Jimmy,

This is well said

"Players who develop at a slower pace or incur a setback of any variety don't have youth on their side in the same fashion that a high school prospect would. Luckily for the Chicago White Sox though, landing players on top prospect lists at various publications isn't the organizational goal of the draft. It is to supply the organization with enough premium talent to compile a critical mass that will be used as currency in addition to filling holes in Chicago."

Sox have avoided HS and really never went for it with a big latam class. Starting to wonder if it's scout preference or acknowledgment of difficulty the org has in developing young, raw talent.

Would really like to see more from the pitching side from Hostetlers drafts. 

Full disclosure on this: I didn't want to hammer the organization and tried to make it apparent in the article but the philosophy the last few years leaves much to be desired. I think they've drafted lots of big leaguers but the upside is limited. I  hated the Sheets and Burdi picks. It can still work out but some troubling trends. 

[bmags]

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Full disclosure on this: I didn't want to hammer the organization and tried to make it apparent in the article but the philosophy the last few years leaves much to be desired. I think they've drafted lots of big leaguers but the upside is limited. I  hated the Sheets and Burdi picks. It can still work out but some troubling trends. 

I at least think they have showed meaningful shifts in each years that show they too don't have a handle on things.

2016 was a bunch of players with good walk rates/good power, but higher K rates

2017 was a frick load full of good walk rates and good k rates, but often limited athletes (gonzalez could of course save the whole draft).

2018 showed more of a balance, more versatile athletes and pitchers with some more interesting stuff.

But my personal template for all of these years should have been top college bat, high school player, top college player left, save on money, chance on high schooler, whatevers left...

I don't like the Walker, sheets, burdi picks because they were primed to spend a little more to get some top high school talent but instead paid sometimes overslot for college juniors. I'll never really understand why the sox needed to go so overslot for a college junior 1b in the second round. What leverage did he have?

That said, 2018 was more encouraging to me from a player type perspective, but the 2017 draft (Which I found interesting at the time) just showed the limits of "safer" college production.

[Y2Jimmy0]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

I at least think they have showed meaningful shifts in each years that show they too don't have a handle on things.

2016 was a bunch of players with good walk rates/good power, but higher K rates

2017 was a frick load full of good walk rates and good k rates, but often limited athletes (gonzalez could of course save the whole draft).

2018 showed more of a balance, more versatile athletes and pitchers with some more interesting stuff.

But my personal template for all of these years should have been top college bat, high school player, top college player left, save on money, chance on high schooler, whatevers left...

I don't like the Walker, sheets, burdi picks because they were primed to spend a little more to get some top high school talent but instead paid sometimes overslot for college juniors. I'll never really understand why the sox needed to go so overslot for a college junior 1b in the second round. What leverage did he have?

That said, 2018 was more encouraging to me from a player type perspective, but the 2017 draft (Which I found interesting at the time) just showed the limits of "safer" college production.

100%. They've hinted at the fact that some HS guys they liked weren't available but the results are the results. I think they wanted SS Chris Seise in round 2. They loved him predraft. Burger was fine because they picked 11th. I'm curious to know if they would have taken Adell if given the chance though. 

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

100%. They've hinted at the fact that some HS guys they liked weren't available but the results are the results. I think they wanted SS Chris Seise in round 2. They loved him predraft. Burger was fine because they picked 11th. I'm curious to know if they would have taken Adell if given the chance though. 

Yeah it sucks 2017 they really were at the pivot point for talent. I think they would have gone Hiura/Adell had they been there. And Seisse and Sheets had same amount given to them.

[SoxSteve]

I actually liked the type of some of the players they drafted. The high walk rate is a big positive for me after what we've had to deal with players on the team in the past and the players in minors like Hawkins, barham etc. I think we get to enamored or concerned with  low home run amount especially in A and low A ball. I think sheets will have very good power in the future and love the contact of the Steele walker types. I could be wrong but I think those 2 will make big jumps on the hitting front this season. We shall see

[NorthSideSox72]

This came from a discussion amongst the writers, but thought I'd share here. This is a list of the prospects that were on the Top 30 OR the Just Missed list (more or less the top 45 names in the system), including only those the Sox drafted, by draft round:

TOP 30 PLUS JUST MISSED:
1st: 3
1-supp: 1
2nd: 4
3rd: 2
4th: 2
5th: 5
6th: 2
7th: 1
11th: 1
12th: 1
15th: 1
22nd: 2
28th: 1
33rd: 1

[southsider2k5]

Any international count?

[Y2Jimmy0]

 

 

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Any international count?

We could do it. My article was about the draft as a premise. Robert, Adolfo and Sosa were all listed on top 30. Amado Nunez and Luis Mieses were on the Just MIssed. Hahn was funny about international market specifically over the weekend. A guy said that Sox have been lacking in that area in the past 20 years. Hahn countered and say that he believes they are right up there with the top of the industry over the last 5 years but said the fan was correct about the prior 15 years. The last two years is a big hit but at least they've spun the $$ into some guys that should help the big league club in some order. They have never had the big class that we've wanted but Paddy has identified Robert, Adolfo and Tatis. That's pretty good. They really need to hit in the next 5 years to keep the system pumping when they are competing on the major league side though. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

 

We could do it. My article was about the draft as a premise. Robert, Adolfo and Sosa were all listed on top 30. Amado Nunez and Luis Mieses were on the Just MIssed. Hahn was funny about international market specifically over the weekend. A guy said that Sox have been lacking in that area in the past 20 years. Hahn countered and say that he believes they are right up there with the top of the industry over the last 5 years but said the fan was correct about the prior 15 years. The last two years is a big hit but at least they've spun the $$ into some guys that should help the big league club in some order. They have never had the big class that we've wanted but Paddy has identified Robert, Adolfo and Tatis. That's pretty good. They really need to hit in the next 5 years to keep the system pumping when they are competing on the major league side though. 

Interesting 

 Thanks!

[oldsox]

52 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

 

We could do it. My article was about the draft as a premise. Robert, Adolfo and Sosa were all listed on top 30. Amado Nunez and Luis Mieses were on the Just MIssed. Hahn was funny about international market specifically over the weekend. A guy said that Sox have been lacking in that area in the past 20 years. Hahn countered and say that he believes they are right up there with the top of the industry over the last 5 years but said the fan was correct about the prior 15 years. The last two years is a big hit but at least they've spun the $$ into some guys that should help the big league club in some order. They have never had the big class that we've wanted but Paddy has identified Robert, Adolfo and Tatis. That's pretty good. They really need to hit in the next 5 years to keep the system pumping when they are competing on the major league side though. 

I think we should push Robert as fast as we can to get him to the majors as quickly as possible.  Most folks here like to use the "not rush them" theory.  IOW, give them 5 years or so in the minors to "develop", like Eloy.  Not me, at least not with this kid.  Get him up to Chicago ASAP.  There are plenty of other studs who flew through the minors, because they were good enough.  Trout, Soto, Machado, Harper are obvious examples.

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

 

We could do it. My article was about the draft as a premise. Robert, Adolfo and Sosa were all listed on top 30. Amado Nunez and Luis Mieses were on the Just MIssed. Hahn was funny about international market specifically over the weekend. A guy said that Sox have been lacking in that area in the past 20 years. Hahn countered and say that he believes they are right up there with the top of the industry over the last 5 years but said the fan was correct about the prior 15 years. The last two years is a big hit but at least they've spun the $$ into some guys that should help the big league club in some order. They have never had the big class that we've wanted but Paddy has identified Robert, Adolfo and Tatis. That's pretty good. They really need to hit in the next 5 years to keep the system pumping when they are competing on the major league side though. 

Ha, that was my question

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

I think we should push Robert as fast as we can to get him to the majors as quickly as possible.  Most folks here like to use the "not rush them" theory.  IOW, give them 5 years or so in the minors to "develop", like Eloy.  Not me, at least not with this kid.  Get him up to Chicago ASAP.  There are plenty of other studs who flew through the minors, because they were good enough.  Trout, Soto, Machado, Harper are obvious examples.

Eloy got 5 years because he was 16 when he signed and the White Sox has no incentive to bring him up last year. 

[caulfield12]

Title should be ITS impact...

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, bmags said:

I at least think they have showed meaningful shifts in each years that show they too don't have a handle on things.

2016 was a bunch of players with good walk rates/good power, but higher K rates

2017 was a frick load full of good walk rates and good k rates, but often limited athletes (gonzalez could of course save the whole draft).

2018 showed more of a balance, more versatile athletes and pitchers with some more interesting stuff.

But my personal template for all of these years should have been top college bat, high school player, top college player left, save on money, chance on high schooler, whatevers left...

I don't like the Walker, sheets, burdi picks because they were primed to spend a little more to get some top high school talent but instead paid sometimes overslot for college juniors. I'll never really understand why the sox needed to go so overslot for a college junior 1b in the second round. What leverage did he have?

That said, 2018 was more encouraging to me from a player type perspective, but the 2017 draft (Which I found interesting at the time) just showed the limits of "safer" college production.

Give me ten Bryce Bushes over the likes of Walker, Call, Fisher, etc.  Players with a limited ceiling coming out of the college ranks just aren’t very likely to ever become 3 fWAR regulars.  The bust rate is obviously higher for the high schoolers, but the upside often is worth it, but it’s such an inexact science compared to the NBA or even NFL. Some of the best players who mature physically at an early age often peak early in baseball and then end up getting passed by later.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7949&position=SS

A good example of the different timeline is Gordon Beckham and Tim Beckham from the 2008 draft.  Tim’s career fWAR is just 4.5 at 1-1 and Gordon at just 6.0, Tim with the best overall season with one 3 breakout...in the end though, neither one was able to make the adjustments (offensively) that were necessary to succeed.

[SoxSteve]

How about ten Courtney Hawkins  or 5 Keenan Barhams. I don’t like capped ceiling players either but the bust rate is way to high for me on high school players.  I have no problem with the Steele walkers or Gavin Sheets or Jake Burgers.   For every Gordon Beckham bust there is 10 high schoolers who’s names are already forgotten.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

How about ten Courtney Hawkins  or 5 Keenan Barhams. I don’t like capped ceiling players either but the bust rate is way to high for me on high school players.  I have no problem with the Steele walkers or Gavin Sheets or Jake Burgers.   For every Gordon Beckham bust there is 10 high schoolers who’s names are already forgotten.  

I personally think it’s better to take those high schoolers in later rounds and entice them with leftover slot money...the first round, especially Top 10, is a huge gamble, and we learned the hard way with the likes of Hawkins, Honel and Jason Stumm in years past. It’s essentially like buying $300k lottery tickets in the international market, and hoping 1/1000 becomes another Tatis Jr.  The odds are certainly low, but non-zero if you have great scouting with the necessary budget to canvass the globe.

That said, we will see what happens if Witt Jr. is available this year and if the Sox are confident they can develop him.  Betting odds are probably high for a rising collegiate pitcher if they can’t get Adley R. from Oregon State.

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Give me ten Bryce Bushes over the likes of Walker, Call, Fisher, etc.  

So you'd prefer that the White Sox spend their top 10 draft picks on 10 guys who are unlikely to sign and that they might sign once a decade? I guess that's a strategy, but I'm skeptical that your notion of only signing 1 draft pick a decade will work to improve this team.

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So you'd prefer that the White Sox spend their top 10 draft picks on 10 guys who are unlikely to sign and that they might sign once a decade? I guess that's a strategy, but I'm skeptical that your notion of only signing 1 draft pick a decade will work to improve this team.

He wasn’t unlikely to sign.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

He wasn’t unlikely to sign.

Bryce Bush? The 33rd rounder who had a college commitment who we literally asked him how it went down that he actually signed when we interviewed him because it was so surprising that he signed?

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Bryce Bush? The 33rd rounder who had a college commitment who we literally asked him how it went down that he actually signed when we interviewed him because it was so surprising that he signed?

Uh, yeah.

From that article that you are talking about:

”

 Bush was clear that the teams he spoke with were told that his college commitment wouldn't be a sticking point in regards to signing a contract.

"We told every team that I wanted to go straight out of high school. I also wasn't asking for that much money to do so". He also said that he wasn't sure which team would pick him even though multiple area scouts had been in to see him play. In regards to where and by whom he would be drafted, Bryce said, "I didn't really know. Lots of teams showed interest. I actually thought the White Sox showed the least amount of interest at first".”

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2018/08/prospect-focus-bryce-bush/

[ptatc]

21 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Full disclosure on this: I didn't want to hammer the organization and tried to make it apparent in the article but the philosophy the last few years leaves much to be desired. I think they've drafted lots of big leaguers but the upside is limited. I  hated the Sheets and Burdi picks. It can still work out but some troubling trends. 

I think part of it was that they were looking at a 4 year rebuild and needed players who were going to be ready in that time frame to help the MLB. If they drafted too many HS players it would extend the initial rebuild. It wouldn't surprise me if they are competitive  in two years that you see more high ceiling HS players to get some star players to extend the competitive window.

[turnin' two]

21 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Full disclosure on this: I didn't want to hammer the organization and tried to make it apparent in the article but the philosophy the last few years leaves much to be desired. I think they've drafted lots of big leaguers but the upside is limited. I  hated the Sheets and Burdi picks. It can still work out but some troubling trends. 

I feel the same way but with Sheets and Walker.  Their profiles and strengths were too similar to the first round picks (Burger and Madrigal).  Burger and Sheets were college corner bats with power and plate discipline.  Madrigal and Walker were refined college bats with great bat to ball skills but limited power.  Nothing against any of these players, and they all certainly may work out, but I would like to see a little more diversity in the drafting philosophy.  If you take a safe college bat in the first round, take the high risk high reward HS player in round 2.  Why take guys with the same profile?  

I am also a bit surprised how they have seemingly neglected pitching the last 2 years.  I know the system balance was a bit pitching heavy before that, but it isn't something you can ignore at the top of the draft.