Lucas Giolito's 2019: Do or Die?

[Dominikk85]

53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Giolito was arguably the worst regular pitcher in baseball last year. There aren't really any pitchers that are "far suckier" than lucas giolito and certainly not ones who have stuck in the league.

I would agree with that. Some pitchers did have a rocky start to their career and figured it out but so far giolito was dreadful and if he hadn't been a consensus top5 prospect in baseball he might have been in indy ball right now.

The big issue is the stuff has rarely been there. I wouldn't care if he had given up tons of walks and homers with a 7 ERA but struck out 25% however his K rate for his career is 16% which is way below league average and of course his walk rate isn't low either.

So far there is really nothing positive about his profile: 

-16% k

-10% bb (6% k-bb!)

-not an extreme groundball guy either at 45% (a tad above average)

-not good at preventing hard contact either

As look at ray said he needs to find a consistent set of mechanics and stop thinking and tinkering.

I do think though that it is vital that he sits at 95 though, when he is at 91 he is not efficient because it isn't plus command either.

Most disappointing is imo that his curve is bad too, it was advertised as plus to double plus.

Edited January 29, 2019 by [email protected]

[Jack Parkman]

Quote

The Boston Red Sox in and of themselves would be a perfectly reasonable excuse for a bump in the road along the Lucas Giolito comeback trail, which has now seen him record a 3.82 ERA and log 61 1/3 innings over his past 10 starts. 

As of August 30th, 2018 This is what Fegan wrote after a game, vs the Red Sox(WS champions btw) that Giolito dominated their lineup for 6 1/3 innings. 

His line that night:

6.1 IP, 2H 1 ER 2 BB 8K. 

Another game from August 3rd 2018 @TB

7 IP 2 H 1 ER 3BB 6K 

On both of these nights, he showed the TOR talent is still there. I'm not saying that he's going to be great or anything(nobody knows that for sure), I'm just saying the talent is still there, and to wait and let it play out. 

Both of these teams won 90+ games last year. Remember that. 

If you were going to rate Giolito's season, his 1st 15 starts were awful, his next 5 were meh His next 10 were good, and his last 5 were bad. He's growing as a pitcher, and the Sox are in the position that they can afford to give him time to figure it out. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

In case people haven't seen this article from August - here's Fangraphs "Lucas Giolito is saving his season"

 

I've thought his pitch velocity chart is also useful to look at.

[Capital G]

I just want to see improvement. If he can pitch at league average for a 5th starter I'd be happy with the progress. In 2020 I would expect huge improvement to fend off our upcoming pitchers or move on.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Dead. In his own head. 

One who constantly thinks of his mechanics will never settle in on the proper mechanics. He's obsessed with his mechanics and blames all his shortcomings on them. 

As someone who changed his hand position, stance, and load after and during every major slump of my life - into college - I understand that searching for success in your mechanics takes the natural talent and flow of your game away. Mechanics matter but if you're in the big leagues making mechanical overhauls, you're in trouble. 

Gio would be better off focusing on learning to deal with lesser stuff than searching for that stuff. He should learn to pitch with the stuff he has now, in my opinion. I hope I'm horribly wrong about giolito.

He wasn't searching for mechanics until the Nationals tried to change them. He has only been obsessed since others started messing with it. This is one reason that the Sox a d Cooper don't mess with mechanics ala Sale unless something really significant happens.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I just want to see Gio show consistency start to start. Keep the Sox in the games and prove you belong in the rotation. I don't expect him to be the anchor the rotation needs, but I don't see why he couldn't figure it out on a similar career path that Floyd had when he was here. He's still just 24 years old, and he has a little time left. 2020 will be the make or break year for him.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

In case people haven't seen this article from August - here's Fangraphs "Lucas Giolito is saving his season"

 

I've thought his pitch velocity chart is also useful to look at.

Yes and then after this was written he gave up 23 runs in 23 innings. 

Everytime Gio took a step forward he took two back. If he was happy with how he ended the season he wouldn't be retooling again 

Edited January 30, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jerksticks]

11 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I just want to see Gio show consistency start to start. Keep the Sox in the games and prove you belong in the rotation. I don't expect him to be the anchor the rotation needs, but I don't see why he couldn't figure it out on a similar career path that Floyd had when he was here. He's still just 24 years old, and he has a little time left. 2020 will be the make or break year for him.

I’m with ya.  Just want him to claim a spot.  

[Balta1701]

26 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes and then after this was written he gave up 23 runs in 23 innings. 

Everytime Gio took a step forward he took two back. If he was happy with how he ended the season he wouldn't be retooling again 

Take a look at that velocity chart in September. It dropped off again, that's why I showed both. Maybe his mechanics got lost again, maybe he was hitting a dead arm wall after having to put in extra work to find his arm slot all year? 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

He wasn't searching for mechanics until the Nationals tried to change them. He has only been obsessed since others started messing with it. This is one reason that the Sox a d Cooper don't mess with mechanics ala Sale unless something really significant happens.

Great post. 

The Nationals tried to fix something that wasn't broken. However, I'd think that if Giolito was tearing it up for Washington, if they didn't break him, then the Sox probably end up with Luzardo in the Eaton deal. It's a shame the Sox didn't eat the remainder of Robertson's contract to get him. Before they traded Luzardo to Oakland, there were conversations about the Sox swapping Robertson for Luzardo back in the winter of 2017. Would have been a huge get and maybe would have partially made up for the Tatis boneheaded move. 

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Great post. 

The Nationals tried to fix something that wasn't broken. However, I'd think that if Giolito was tearing it up for Washington, if they didn't break him, then the Sox probably end up with Luzardo in the Eaton deal. It's a shame the Sox didn't eat the remainder of Robertson's contract to get him. Before they traded Luzardo to Oakland, there were conversations about the Sox swapping Robertson for Luzardo back in the winter of 2017. Would have been a huge get and maybe would have partially made up for the Tatis boneheaded move. 

It was Nats ownership that killed the deal, not the Sox.

[Jack Parkman]

22 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It was Nats ownership that killed the deal, not the Sox.

I know, but I was assuming that was because the Sox would have had to eat the majority of Robertson's contract to get it done. If they could have had one more decent prospect thrown into the deal(someone like Erick Fedde), I think they should have done it. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[elrockinMT]

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I won't call it do or die, but you want to see improvement and most of all, consistency.

Patience is required with young players. We demand perfection and don’t always see the need for or the benefit of experience 

[caulfield12]

10 hours ago, ptatc said:

He wasn't searching for mechanics until the Nationals tried to change them. He has only been obsessed since others started messing with it. This is one reason that the Sox a d Cooper don't mess with mechanics ala Sale unless something really significant happens.

Erik Johnson was another complete enigma with how he just completely fell apart without much explanation.

[Chicago White Sox]

It’s 100% do or die for Giolito.  He’s got to show substantial improvement if he wants any chance of sticking in the rotation.  Realistically Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, & Cease are likely to be given spots next year.  That leaves one spot for a big trade or signing (which I think will happen given the youth / innings caps for the latter two guys), Dunning, & a hole host of our other guys like Lambert, Flores, etc.  The odds are already against him at this point IMO.

[ron883]

[ChiSox1917]

On 1/29/2019 at 6:02 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Where did I say major leaguers don't make adjustments? A guy just coming fresh to the majors and making a mechanical overhaul is alarming and not common in the least bit.

What mechanical overhaul did Verlander make? He made an adjustment to the way he attacked hitters and the zone - his adjustment was driven more by analytics provided to him by the Astros. He didnt make some dramatic mechanical changes and reinvent himself. A late career adjustment is vastly different than a overhaul of your mechanics after one year in the big leagues. Giolito has now overhauled his mechanics 4 off seasons in a row. He did it in Washington by their request in 2016 because his motion was high effort and dangerous according to them. Then in 2017, the white sox acquired giolito and overhauled his mechanics - hoping to fix what the nationals broke. Then, in 2018 giolito changed his mechanics again, back to the "natural" motion from before the nationals changed him. He had a big spring and optimism was high. Then the season started and his velocity didnt hold in the weather, and his release point with the natural motion kept preventing him from getting on top of breaking balls. Then, he started finding some velocity but still couldnt get on top, and he was wild in and out of the zone. Now, in 2019 Lucas Giolito is overhauling his mechanics again. Yes, countless hall of famers do that 

Verlander made a huge mechanical adjustment after joining the Astros raising his arm slot almost half a foot, which like Giolito after he did the same, resulted in his fastball picking up another 2-3 mph.  

As for Giolito, there was talk in 2017 about the Sox changing his mechanics, but I see no evidence of it.  His 2016 and 2017 video looks very similar.  I think all the WSox were working on at that point was trying to get him to develop consistency in his mechanics, which he never did.  He finally made some pretty major changes starting around July 2018.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s 100% do or die for Giolito.  He’s got to show substantial improvement if he wants any chance of sticking in the rotation.  Realistically Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, & Cease are likely to be given spots next year.  That leaves one spot for a big trade or signing (which I think will happen given the youth / innings caps for the latter two guys), Dunning, & a hole host of our other guys like Lambert, Flores, etc.  The odds are already against him at this point IMO.

This is how I look at it too. We might be seeing him in a TV show or in the movies in a few years.

[Balta1701]

14 hours ago, ChiSox1917 said:

Verlander made a huge mechanical adjustment after joining the Astros raising his arm slot almost half a foot, which like Giolito after he did the same, resulted in his fastball picking up another 2-3 mph.  

As for Giolito, there was talk in 2017 about the Sox changing his mechanics, but I see no evidence of it.  His 2016 and 2017 video looks very similar.  I think all the WSox were working on at that point was trying to get him to develop consistency in his mechanics, which he never did.  He finally made some pretty major changes starting around July 2018.  

From the link above:

 

[spiderman]

On 1/29/2019 at 3:20 PM, Jack Parkman said:

https://theathletic.com/788331/2019/01/29/after-getting-help-in-his-rehab-from-lucas-giolito-michael-kopech-is-dedicating-this-year-to-being-unapologetically-myself/

This article is about both Giolito and Kopech. Gio is taking Kopech under his wing for the TJS rehab process, along with Gio's HS buddy and teammate Max Fried. 

If you have a subscription, I suggest giving this a read, as Giolito is watching video of himself last year and when he was at his best. He talks about his delivery being out of sync due to having his arm behind his body(Textbook example of flying open) and what he's doing in his offseason training to correct the issue. This begs the question: What do you need to see from Lucas Giolito in 2019 to give him another year in the rotation? 

He needs to DRASTICALLY improve and I don't think he's entitled to the entire season to show this. Didn't he allow the most earned runs and walk the most hitters in MLB last season? Of course, having the opportunity to walk that many batters is a testimony to the rebuilding effort where his development trumped the team's success. However, the White Sox have made it clear that expect the major league team to improve in 2019. I think Giolito needs to perform like a middle of the rotation starter (ERA under 4.00); I don't think a 4.70 ERA with continued struggles on throwing strikes will keep him in the rotation.

[he gone.]

My hope and focus isn't so much on numbers. I'd like to see him go out there and CONSISTENTLY pitch well. He needs to lower the blow up innings. He needs to be able to go out there and log 180+ innings. He needs to give us a chance to win as a 4/5 type starter. I think Coop is kind of the perfect coach for him. Coop seems to like to simplify things ... more of the mindset of "get it and throw it" while Gio is a student of the game. Gio seems like the guy who would have a nice career as a pitching coach and who can identify issues, however I think that's to his detriment more times than not.

 

Gio reminds me of Gavin Floyd a lot. So I guess that's my ultimate goal for him. A guy who can be a 3/4/5 type starter but also have stretches where he's a 1/2 type guy for months at a time. I think my goal is for him to be more consistent, log innings, and become a solid rotation option in 2019. I don't think he'll ever hit that "top prospect in MLB" ceiling, or frankly ever come close to it, however I think he has a chance to be a solid contributor on a contending team.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

From the link above:

 

Honest question: do we think this variance is even conscious? He just seems to have no idea where his body is when he's pitching.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

Honest question: do we think this variance is even conscious? He just seems to have no idea where his body is when he's pitching.

My guess is some yes some no. See how both 17 has a higher arm slot than 16 and in 18 he keeps working towards a higher arm slot? Isn't that exactly what Cooper and the White Sox want from him, to be more over the top with the ball? I think that's deliberate. But, I also think that the dropping down isn't deliberate, I think that's him doing the "Gordon Beckham" thing and trying to focus on too many things and as a consequence having everything go to hell, up to the point where he has to be fixed again.

[Eminor3rd]

Unfortunately, I just don’t think giolito has the stuff to be anything more than a 4/5 starter at this point. He did when he was drafted, but it just keeps going backwards. 

Even his “good starts” last year didn’t feature nearly enough missed bats to suggest that he could have that success consistently. If he’s going to stick, he needs to either find a way to get 3-4 mph back on his fastball, learn a new off speed pitch or cutter, or develop top-of-the-scale command and control. While all those things are possible, none are likely. 

[bmags]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

My guess is some yes some no. See how both 17 has a higher arm slot than 16 and in 18 he keeps working towards a higher arm slot? Isn't that exactly what Cooper and the White Sox want from him, to be more over the top with the ball? I think that's deliberate. But, I also think that the dropping down isn't deliberate, I think that's him doing the "Gordon Beckham" thing and trying to focus on too many things and as a consequence having everything go to hell, up to the point where he has to be fixed again.

It's a shame because I was really hoping it was the lowered arm slot that would unlock him:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-watch-lucas-giolito-look-very-good/