Lucas Giolito's 2019: Do or Die?

[Jack Parkman]

I don't disagree with a lot of what's been said here....The only thing I truly disagree with is that he's already hopeless...dude is 24. He's about to get caught in a numbers game, but I honestly think the Sox will end up trading Rodon to open up a spot in the rotation, unless he signs an extension which is unlikely. I also think they're going to start the season with Banuelos, Covey and Fulmer duking it out for the 5th spot, and if any or all suck, they'll bring up Dunning, Cease or whomever. The Sox can't afford to be infinitely patient, and I think that there is a distinct possibility that he gets caught in a numbers game and figures it out elsewhere. I think what they do with Kopech in 2020 depends a lot on how Giolito does this year.

If he takes a huge step forward, and explodes (ERA under 4), then I think Kopech starts 2020 in Charlotte and comes up around Memorial Day when they gain the year of control back. (He has to be down for 45-50 days or so to get the extra year back) If Giolito continues to suck, I think he goes down to Charlotte himself at the beginning of 2020. He still has one option left, and they're going to give him every opportunity to figure it out here. No matter how bad he is, I can't see them using his option in 2019, unless they have decided to completely give up on him, in which case he should be traded for a blocked prospect or something. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Nardiwashere]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree with a lot of what's been said here....The only thing I truly disagree with is that he's already hopeless...dude is 24. He's about to get caught in a numbers game, but I honestly think the Sox will end up trading Rodon to open up a spot in the rotation, unless he signs an extension which is unlikely. I also think they're going to start the season with Banuelos, Covey and Fulmer duking it out for the 5th spot, and if any or all suck, they'll bring up Dunning, Cease or whomever. The Sox can't afford to be infinitely patient, and I think that there is a distinct possibility that he gets caught in a numbers game and figures it out elsewhere. I think what they do with Kopech in 2020 depends a lot on how Giolito does this year.

If he takes a huge step forward, and explodes (ERA under 4), then I think Kopech starts 2020 in Charlotte and comes up around Memorial Day when they gain the year of control back. (He has to be down for 45-50 days or so to get the extra year back) If Giolito continues to suck, I think he goes down to Charlotte himself at the beginning of 2020. He still has one option left, and they're going to give him every opportunity to figure it out here. No matter how bad he is, I can't see them using his option in 2019, unless they have decided to completely give up on him, in which case he should be traded for a blocked prospect or something. 

I was under the impression that the clock started and will run all this year.  So do you mean the 50 days in AAA would essentially "reverse" the time he spent up in 2018 and he'll have about one full year of service time when he comes up? 

[Jack Parkman]

58 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I was under the impression that the clock started and will run all this year.  So do you mean the 50 days in AAA would essentially "reverse" the time he spent up in 2018 and he'll have about one full year of service time when he comes up? 

Yes, but then I realized it really doesn't matter. They don't get that time back at all, unless they keep him down for the majority of 2020 which is not a good idea. He'll have a year and 45 days by ST 2020. They'd have to keep him in Charlotte until mid June at the earliest to gain an extra year of control. If they're willing to keep him down until July, it makes sense. Otherwise he starts 2020 in the rotation. They need to keep him down long enough so by the end of 2020 he has less than 2 years service. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't disagree with a lot of what's been said here....The only thing I truly disagree with is that he's already hopeless...dude is 24. He's about to get caught in a numbers game, but I honestly think the Sox will end up trading Rodon to open up a spot in the rotation, unless he signs an extension which is unlikely.

I do think trading Rodon makes sense to me but I'm not sure the White Sox would do it. Right now Rodon just isn't worth all that much in a trade - he's coming off an injury, his velocity was down, his performance last year was down, and he's never been anywhere close to a top of the rotation starter.

For us to really want to trade Rodon, he has to get off to a great start this year and keep it up through the trade deadline. That would at least convince teams he could be the real thing. But then, if he's actually dominating and an all star and all that, wouldn't the White Sox then say "We want this guy leading our 2020 rotation"? I think that's exactly what they'd do. 

[Jack Parkman]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I do think trading Rodon makes sense to me but I'm not sure the White Sox would do it. Right now Rodon just isn't worth all that much in a trade - he's coming off an injury, his velocity was down, his performance last year was down, and he's never been anywhere close to a top of the rotation starter.

For us to really want to trade Rodon, he has to get off to a great start this year and keep it up through the trade deadline. That would at least convince teams he could be the real thing. But then, if he's actually dominating and an all star and all that, wouldn't the White Sox then say "We want this guy leading our 2020 rotation"? I think that's exactly what they'd do. 

They'd be stupid to do that. He doesn't fit the window unless he signs an extension, which is highly unlikely. He only has 3 years of team control left, right? He's worth more to a team ready to win now if he's performing like a TOR starter than he is to the Sox. Do you know what is horrible about this whole thing: Even if Moncada turns it around and becomes the star everyone thought he would be....they're going to lose him only two years into the window. I'm almost to the point where Moncada and Lopez are more valuable as trade chips than they are to the Sox. I don't see them ready to rock and roll until 2021. They have only 3 years of team control at that point, players are going to start getting expensive. I don't know what they could have done better, but they needed to get talent that was all going to come up together rather than in waves. When your talent comes up in waves, the players from the first wave are probably going to be gone before you do anything in terms of winning.

If the Sox could have held Moncada down until June 2018, not only would it have been better for his development, it would have saved them the potential headache of him leaving early in their window.  If they land Machado or Harper, and Moncada and a pitcher or two explode this season, they would be better off trading their prospect capital for proven stars and accelerating the hell out of  the rebuild. You can't play the long game forever. Go grab Sale, trade their prospects for players that will help now with team control that are available, and just go fucking win. That is what the Brewers did, that is what the Reds are doing. You can't be stupid about this. You have to get players with three years or more of team control, otherwise you're just wasting prospects at that point. The window might only be 3-4 years, but you have to maximize it. I've always said that this is going to look more like the Royals than the Cubs or Astros. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Jack Parkman