Morrisey - If MLB isn’t careful, it will die by its own boring

[kitekrazy]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

This is one of those cases where increasing franchise values (gambling legalization) , rising revenues from bigger and bigger broadcast revenues is masking underlying problems with keeping young people interested, compared to those 50+ who grew up with the sport when it was almost co #1 with the NFL.

Now MLB earns just a bit more than the NBA but is losing the battle in terms of marketing and worldwide appeal, largely due to the popularity of the game in China with young people.

We can blame better tv shows, IPads, tanking or rebuilding teams, mixed martial arts rising in popularity, online gaming, the rising costs of kids to participate on travel teams, the fact that kids aren’t safe to just be outside every day until it turns dark playing (think The Sandlot), more and more kids simply being out of shape or couch potatoes, the amount of space for baseball fields vs. basketball courts (not to mention equipment costs)...it goes on and on.  Let’s throw in too much product, regionalism vs. games of national interest, boring divisions like the AL Central and Greg’s yearly diatribe about the always-increasing costs of parking/concession items/souvenirs for a middle class family.

As soon as baseball teams start to lose money when the broadcasting deals stop growing or their attendance continues to fall 5-10% per year, nothing will happen.  Period.  There’s no incentive to change dramatically, not yet.

We also haven’t seen how the concussion/CTE issues will impact the number of youth football players...as mothers refuse to allow their kids to play and they likely are forced to participate in other sports like baseball.

 TV sucks and more people are ditching cable TV because cable packages have become expensive. Most kids are into gaming. Outside of organized sports baseball isn't convenient for kids. How many open fields are there compared to a playground with a hoop?  We use to play by our schools and now schools are fenced off.  Many house do not have a decent size lot.

  In my home town they have shortened the LL season.  When I was a kid it started in June and ended at the beginning of August.  Now it's like May and June, done.

  Plus Lip brought this up about scheduling.  Now it's starting in March and it makes no sense for Midwest teams to play each other.  

 

[kitekrazy]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I think the league should stop messing around so much with 'gameplay" stuff and figure out ways to make pitchers less effective. Either by speeding up time between pitches, lowering mound, whatever, it would add action (more plays/contact) even if it doesn't cut time.

I think we could also see that smooth out the aging curve. My hunch is that eventually the added average velocity hit a level that made veterans that could have at least been league average in years past become unplayable due to lower bat speed.

Would this see a return of things like the running game in the 80s? Maybe not, but I think the league is too scared due to the relationship with numbers to "change" the game artificially in the way that other leagues don't care about.

 Turning their heads on steroid usage worked.  Maybe it's lack of talent.   I feel that way with the NFL.   I think also baseball has become all about the home run and situational hitting is dead.   There are no Rod Carew's, Wade Boggs.  Maybe it's gotten so far away from traditional baseball.  No one wants a Jaun Pierre or Mickey Rivers. What's even worse is the decline of catchers that use to be household names.  

[kitekrazy]

6 hours ago, TenneSox said:

This is the killer for me.

Starting pitchers used to be main attractions - guys like Ryan, Doc Gooden, Randy Johnson, Maddux - their starts were appointment viewing. 

Now, outside of Sale, DeGrom, Scherzer, maybe Verlander - who are you tuning in to watch? 

Baseball's devolved into 5 innings of starting pitching, and then an endless parade of anonymous flamethrowing relievers who blow their arms out and are replaced by the another carbon copy - and this leads to excess strikeouts, 45 minute innings with 3 and 4 pitching changes, etc, etc - just as the drama of the game should be building in the late innings.

Fix this, bring back the attraction of the starting pitcher, and you fix baseball, IMHO. 

Tanking is a problem, but IMHO, the problem is that it takes 4-5 years to really rebuild. Tweak the draft/acquisition process so that teams can turn around much more quickly, and that will fix itself. 

 How would they do that?  I think there is a big difference in the talent from the pro level than the other sports.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

 TV sucks and more people are ditching cable TV because cable packages have become expensive. Most kids are into gaming. Outside of organized sports baseball isn't convenient for kids. How many open fields are there compared to a playground with a hoop?  We use to play by our schools and now schools are fenced off.  Many house do not have a decent size lot.

  In my home town they have shortened the LL season.  When I was a kid it started in June and ended at the beginning of August.  Now it's like May and June, done.

  Plus Lip brought this up about scheduling.  Now it's starting in March and it makes no sense for Midwest teams to play each other.  

 

I was referring more to Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, YouTube TV, etc.  A decade ago, network/free t.v. seemed to be dying...and it was almost impossible to imagine many Hollywood stars would be more attracted to 10-13 episode mini-seasons than shooting a feature film.  But here we are, I think it’s something like a 3-4X increase from a decade ago.   Not only that, but there are a plethora of DC and Marvel related shows to soak up kids’ attention.  Plus so many are switching to satellite tv or streaming (I watch every show in China through satellite or streaming though IPad) options.

 

“The number of scripted TV shows released in the U.S. swelled to a new high in 2017, reflecting the growing efforts of Netflix, Amazon and YouTube to steal viewers and advertisers from traditional networks.

Streaming services accounted for 117 of the 487 shows released last year and almost all of the growth from the 455 programs released in 2016, according to a study by FX Networks, a division of 21st Century Fox Inc. The number of shows released in the U.S. has more than doubled in seven years.”

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

 How would they do that?  I think there is a big difference in the talent from the pro level than the other sports.

Make it where the worst teams aren’t automatically getting the corresponding pick with their finish in the standings...like the NBA Lottery.  Maybe they could tweak it in some way to still protect the true small market franchises like TB, Pitt, Oak, Cleveland, KC, etc.

[Lip Man 1]

If baseball dies it won't be because of tanking although that would play a part in it. It'll die because of the "three outcome" approach in my opinion. The games are becoming boring, TV ratings are dramatically down in some places, attendance is down. The game needs to go back to fundamentals, putting the ball in play, action on the bases and so forth.

Regarding the "time element" One of the beauties of the game is that there isn't a clock. I don't care if a game takes four hours if it is well played. And I continue to wonder why some folks b**** if a baseball game takes three hours but are perfectly fine when an NFL games goes 3:15 or 3:30 with even less action.  

[Mooseman]

How many legit superstars are there in baseball?

[soxfan18]

5 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I laugh when fans say how a new stadium( i.e Tampa) will boost attendance. That tells you all you need to know about attending a game.  That is a in a city where an NHL team draws more fans( many wearing shorts) than Boston, NY, Detroit, St Louis etc.   

If the Rays played where the Bolts did they would draw. Amalie is right in the heart of downtown and very accessible. 

Playing way out in St. Pete is a killer for the Rays. Just as elsewhere in the state, the Panthers play in the middle of nowhere and no one goes. They would draw much better if they played where the Heat do. 

[soxfan18]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Regarding the "time element" One of the beauties of the game is that there isn't a clock. I don't care if a game takes four hours if it is well played. And I continue to wonder why some folks b**** if a baseball game takes three hours but are perfectly fine when an NFL games goes 3:15 or 3:30 with even less action.  

16 games vs. 162. Don't be ridiculous.

[greg775]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

This is one of those cases where increasing franchise values (gambling legalization) , rising revenues from bigger and bigger broadcast revenues is masking underlying problems with keeping young people interested, compared to those 50+ who grew up with the sport when it was almost co #1 with the NFL.

Now MLB earns just a bit more than the NBA but is losing the battle in terms of marketing and worldwide appeal, largely due to the popularity of the game in China with young people.

We can blame better tv shows, IPads, tanking or rebuilding teams, mixed martial arts rising in popularity, online gaming, the rising costs of kids to participate on travel teams, the fact that kids aren’t safe to just be outside every day until it turns dark playing (think The Sandlot), more and more kids simply being out of shape or couch potatoes, the amount of space for baseball fields vs. basketball courts (not to mention equipment costs)...it goes on and on.  Let’s throw in too much product, regionalism vs. games of national interest, boring divisions like the AL Central and Greg’s yearly diatribe about the always-increasing costs of parking/concession items/souvenirs for a middle class family.

As soon as baseball teams start to lose money when the broadcasting deals stop growing or their attendance continues to fall 5-10% per year, nothing will happen.  Period.  There’s no incentive to change dramatically, not yet.

We also haven’t seen how the concussion/CTE issues will impact the number of youth football players...as mothers refuse to allow their kids to play and they likely are forced to participate in other sports like baseball.

This is what bothers me. When I get suspended on here it's like people NEVER EVER would have Greg's opinion on anything. Morrissey's story is MY POSITION on tanking. I've b****ed about it forever on here. Also the crap about advanced stats ruining the game and trips to the mound, etc.

Every year I'm ready for baseball, but the Sox tanking B.S. really has angered me the past couple years. And the pace of the game after the fifth inning is something that will drive all Millenials from the game for sure. IT'S BORING.

Baseball has to do something. The "old" stats were good. They drove discussion. They led to guys being named to the Hall of Fame. Good luck to anybody getting in in the modern era. Nobody will be able to live up to the advanced stat phenomenon. Thanks for listening to me rant. I saw Morrissey's story and I thought, "That's me, the guy people on here think is trolling." No I'm not trolling, I'm angry about my game of baseball being ruined. Tanking ... humbug!

p.s. I also DESPISE playing the Royals and Twins and Indians and Tigers 19 times. Baseball, get your act together!

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, Mooseman said:

How many legit superstars are there in baseball?

None, according to. MLB...because Trout’s not interested in marketing himself and Haroer’s Only had one transcendant season with negligible results in the post-season. 

 

Need to to go back to 154 games...expand the number of teams into the playoffs to twelve, with the best (record-wise) division winner seeded first and the other three WC teams playing what amounts to a version of a mini-College World Series (double elimination) to advanced into a division series (3 out of 5) against that top seed.  Teams 2/3 play other series with 2 having home field advantage.   This would make for more excitement and guarantee wild card teams at least one home playoff game.

GM 1, Rays at Yankees (Rays lose)

GM 2, Oakland at Rays (Rays lose)

GM 3, Yankees at Oakland (Oakland wins)

GM 4, Oakland at NYY (Yankees win)

GM 5, coin flip or go by best record for the team to host deciding game, Yankees win

 

The travel would be crazy, but it would make things more interesting...or they could always play at a rotating neutral site which would change every year.   Or play the wild card series in another country like Japan, Korea or Mexico.

[soxfan18]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

None, according to. MLB...because Trout’s not interested in marketing himself and Haroer’s Only had one transcendant season with negligible results in the post-season. 

  

 Need to to go back to 154 games...expand the number of teams into the playoffs to twelve, with the best (record-wise) division winner seeded first and the other three WC teams playing what amounts to a version of a mini-College World Series (double elimination) to advanced into a division series (3 out of 5) against that top seed.  Teams 2/3 play other series with 2 having home field advantage.   This would make for more excitement and guarantee wild card teams at least one home playoff game.

 GM 1, Rays at Yankees (Rays lose)

 GM 2, Oakland at Rays (Rays lose)

 GM 3, Yankees at Oakland (Oakland wins)

 GM 4, Oakland at NYY (Yankees win)

 GM 5, coin flip or go by best record for the team to host deciding game, Yankees win

  

 The travel would be crazy, but it would make things more interesting...or they could always play at a rotating neutral site which would change every year.   Or play the wild card series in another country like Japan, Korea or Mexico.

This is sooooo much more complicated and time consuming than just having 1&2 earn byes and 3-6 & 4-5 play a 3 game series, ideally just at the higher seeds park.  

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

If baseball dies it won't be because of tanking although that would play a part in it. It'll die because of the "three outcome" approach in my opinion. The games are becoming boring, TV ratings are dramatically down in some places, attendance is down. The game needs to go back to fundamentals, putting the ball in play, action on the bases and so forth.

Regarding the "time element" One of the beauties of the game is that there isn't a clock. I don't care if a game takes four hours if it is well played. And I continue to wonder why some folks b**** if a baseball game takes three hours but are perfectly fine when an NFL games goes 3:15 or 3:30 with even less action.  

No doubt. I said back when the Sox acquired Thome, that while I like the trade and he will help the team, I really disliked his style of hitting because it was walk, strikeout  or HR. It takes away much of the game.

[ron883]

42 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This is what bothers me. When I get suspended on here it's like people NEVER EVER would have Greg's opinion on anything. Morrissey's story is MY POSITION on tanking. I've b****ed about it forever on here. Also the crap about advanced stats ruining the game and trips to the mound, etc.

Every year I'm ready for baseball, but the Sox tanking B.S. really has angered me the past couple years. And the pace of the game after the fifth inning is something that will drive all Millenials from the game for sure. IT'S BORING.

Baseball has to do something. The "old" stats were good. They drove discussion. They led to guys being named to the Hall of Fame. Good luck to anybody getting in in the modern era. Nobody will be able to live up to the advanced stat phenomenon. Thanks for listening to me rant. I saw Morrissey's story and I thought, "That's me, the guy people on here think is trolling." No I'm not trolling, I'm angry about my game of baseball being ruined. Tanking ... humbug!

p.s. I also DESPISE playing the Royals and Twins and Indians and Tigers 19 times. Baseball, get your act together!

Tanking happens in every sport. It's the smart thing to do in many situations. Not many teams can afford to buy their way to championships and contend year in and year out. Even the Yankees and red Sox tanked in the past decades, and it has lead to them having crazy good teams/farm systems. 

[caulfield12]

55 minutes ago, soxfan18 said:

This is sooooo much more complicated and time consuming than just having 1&2 earn byes and 3-6 & 4-5 play a 3 game series, ideally just at the higher seeds park.  

My main idea was preserving a way to make advancing from the WC Game(s) more interesting, while not punishing the 3rd division winner (maybe they have a tougher division to win) and simultaneously preserving at least one home game for each team to make the playoffs...and also prioritizing winning your division, or giving an enough of an incentive for teams to improve in the offseason instead of waiting for the trade deadline.

 

[greg775]

Also, it's almost impossible to play a 9 inning game in 4 plus hours. It's embarrassing and it happens. The length of the postseason games were embarrassing. So many problems in the game, but one of them is the proliferation of the relief pitcher and it's only going to get worse. I think baseball is over when the teams copy the Rays and have guys pitch two innings max. These "reliever" starters are going to be throwing 100 mph and blowing away the hitters. There will be little action and games are still gonna take forever.

I agree with the poster who said there was glamor in starting pitchers who could go deep into games. Now unless you are a nasty veteran like Sale or Verlander who refuse to come out of games, you go 5 innings max, or 6 innings max. I personally feel very very few starters will be going through lineups more than 2 times in the future.

Analytics is not going to allow pitchers face hitters a third time in a game IMO.

[103 mph screwball]

I had lost touch with watching Sox games.  My cable is Wisconsin crap so I didn’t get Sox on TV as much.  But I had a conversation with a fellow Sox fan and.i realized something.  Even if the Sox were not rebuilding and were on my TV, I would watch nearly as many games as I used to.   I only have so much time in life for sports.  And I watch about 150 softball, 30 volleyball, and 15 basketball games a year.  Kids in sports takes up huge time compared to when I was a kid.  I don’t care that a game is 3 or 4 hours.  I barely have time to watch highlights in the summer.

[greg775]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Tanking happens in every sport. It's the smart thing to do in many situations. Not many teams can afford to buy their way to championships and contend year in and year out. Even the Yankees and red Sox tanked in the past decades, and it has lead to them having crazy good teams/farm systems. 

Ron I disagree. That article said why tanking is bad. This tanking phenomenon will eventually ruin sports. You wait and see. It's against everything competition stands for. And like the article said, if you pay $300 for a family outing and it happens to be one of those tank losses like the Sox had last season (you know those 10-1 games where it's 7-0 in the third; we had some like that) you'll never ever risk going back.  Taking is an insult to every paying customer. Now let people in for free during the tank years or for 5 bucks? Fine.

My solution if a panel including the commish decide a team is tanking, all ticket prices go down to 10 dollars maximum with free parking. We'll see how long teams try to tank.

Edited January 31, 2019 by greg775

[ron883]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Ron I disagree. That article said why tanking is bad. This tanking phenomenon will eventually ruin sports. You wait and see. It's against everything competition stands for. And like the article said, if you pay $300 for a family outing and it happens to be one of those tank losses like the Sox had last season (you know those 10-1 games where it's 7-0 in the third; we had some like that) you'll never ever risk going back.  Taking is an insult to every paying customer. Now let people in for free during the tank years or for 5 bucks? Fine.

My solution if a panel including the commish decide a team is tanking, all ticket prices go down to 10 dollars maximum with free parking. We'll see how long teams try to tank.

If this was a weeknight sitcom episode, I would expect this idea to followed with a "it's so crazy that it just might work!". Then it blows up in their face by the end of the episode because it was such a stupid idea begin with. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by ron883

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Ron I disagree. That article said why tanking is bad. This tanking phenomenon will eventually ruin sports. You wait and see. It's against everything competition stands for. And like the article said, if you pay $300 for a family outing and it happens to be one of those tank losses like the Sox had last season (you know those 10-1 games where it's 7-0 in the third; we had some like that) you'll never ever risk going back.  Taking is an insult to every paying customer. Now let people in for free during the tank years or for 5 bucks? Fine.

My solution if a panel including the commish decide a team is tanking, all ticket prices go down to 10 dollars maximum with free parking. We'll see how long teams try to tank.

The problem with lowering your prices so dramatically is that it becomes much more difficult to raise them again...and think about movie prices, health care, gas or food prices, university tuition or cable tv rates, everything tends to rise in price over time.   And a lot of the parking and parking related employment is not owned or controlled by the teams themselves, for example.

The biggest problem is how do you define tanking?  The White Sox were bad in 2007 and 2009 and 2011 but had high payrolls.  Was that tanking or just general incompetence?   

Let’s call it inefficiency.  Well, those who run each team are Ivy League trained to exploit every niche and inefficiency, it’s why the free agent markets have been suppressed the last two seasons as teams look at ways to generate WAR as cheaply as possible.  

Or we can blame the Royals creating a bullpen so dominating that the goal was simply for the starter to advance the game to the 5th or 6th with a lead and hold on from there.   Then every team starting copying it...reliever salaries rose (but war/$ invested hasn’t kept up)...to the point teams like the Rays, Brewers and A’s were starting games with relievers and projecting that was best wat to get out to an early lead.  It’s no different from massive infield shifts or pitch framing, it’s a way to gain an advantage, just like cheap high OBP hitters was for the early 2000’s Oakland teams.

 

[Sarava]

As Sox fans we know this all too well. One of the worst things is to be 'mired in mediocrity' as Rick Hahn called it. Where you suck and are no real threat to make the playoffs, but don't suck enough to get a high draft pick - and therefore are less likely to get impact talent.

I'd suggest making a total lottery for all non playoff teams. So the team that wins 87 games and misses the playoffs has the same chance at draft picks as the team that wins 61 games. Not just for the top 3 picks. Make it a total random lottery of all teams that miss the playoffs. Maybe the worst team picks 11th? Or maybe they do win the lottery.

The current system penalizes teams that suck, but try to win. That's backwards.

[Baron]

I've argued this before on here. But does anyone think that the commissioner is really going to make the drastic changes this sport needs? I highly doubt it.

Look I'm a millennial. Right now I'd say when discussing sports with people basketball and football take precedence over the others. Those games are faster and more offensive heavy. Not to say I don't like a good defensive battle during football. But the KC vs Rams game I think is a good indication of where people's mindset is with sports. 

[reiks12]

Some of it is data driven. The decline of the SP, the shift, endless relievers, launch angle.. it's making the game stale. 

[Mooseman]

People can b****, moan and complain all they want about pitching changes and shifts and whatever but the bottom line in intrigue will always win. If you're interested you will watch whether its a 2hr game or 5. I hate to always reference wrestling but it applies here as well. WWE in the last couple years when it comes to their 4 big shows (Royal Rumble, WrestleMania, Summer Slam and Survivior Series) have put on Marathon Shows. Which is basically 4-5 hours plus a 2 hour pre-show opposed to the standard "PPV" events going 2 3/4-3 hours with a 1 hour pregame show. A lot of fans truly don't enjoy the marathon shows and prefer them staying around 3 hours. Yet when New JApan Pro Wrestling has their huge events they also are 4-5 marathon shows yet you never really hear complaints. Why? The NJPW product is so much better than WWE right now.The NJPW shows fly by whereas the WWE shows almost feels like work at this point. What i'm trying to get at is baseball needs the intrigue as well as marketable legit superstars. I don't know how to make ball players more popular and pop culture sensations. 

As far as intrigue perhaps expanding playoffs by 1 team per league combined with re-alignment into 4 divisions and using some of the NHL's playoff format would work.  Thinking maybe each division winner gets a bye and the 2nd and 3rd place team play a 2 day, 3 game series. The 2nd place team has the option they can either host game 1 (to presumably get a quick advantage) or games 2 and 3 ( 2>1 mindset.) This also gives the division winner more of an advantage making the regular season much more important.

Now you're probably thinking thats a lot of potential travel in 2 days. Thats where re-alignment comes in. Make it as much regionalized as possible. 4 8-team divisions (assuming expansion in Montreal and Nashville?) The potential for better and bitter rivalries are there and rivalries just mean more money not to mention there should be less travel as well. Remain at a 162 game season. The 162 is broken down as such:

--- Interleague 24 games -alternate other leagues divisions each year. for a 3 game set. every other year you see every team and every city is guaranteed to host every other team once every 4 years

--- Intraleague- 48 games- You play each team in the other division for a home and away 3 games each

---Division - 90 games- You play 6 of the teams in your division 13 times and 1 team 12. You can expand the season to 163 games so you play each division team 13x

ALIGNMENT

Division 1: Sox, Cubs, STL, KC, MIL, MIN, CLE, CIN

Division 2: NYY, NYM, Bos, Tor, MON, Phi, PIT, Det

Division 3: SF, LAD, OAK, LAA, SD, SEA, Col, Ari

Division 4: TB, Mia, ATL, Was, Bal, Hou, Tex, NAS

Yes I know Division 4 is a little spread out but the best I could do.

[LittleHurt05]

Teams have used analytics to maximize their chances to win ball games and unfortunately, unlike other sports, those moves make the game more boring,

In basketball, shooting more 3's is exciting.

In football, spreading the field and running more plays is exciting. 

In baseball, seeing more pitches, the 3 outcomes, and using more relievers are not exciting, but that helps teams win ball games, so it's not going anywhere.