Eminor3rd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said: Considering his young age and how much baseball he missed waiting to get here, I truly don’t understand why people don’t project him to improve. It’s all based on comps and aging curves. It’s not someone’s opinion or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said: Does anyone actually put any value in PECOTA? Just seems like it is a highly inaccurate model, and the further a team roster is away from veteran-laden, the less accurate it is. What did PECOTA predict for last season? 8 hours ago, OmarComing25 said: PECOTA has the Cubs at 82-80... Really? They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good. Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, Donaldo said: What did PECOTA predict for last season? 73-89. PECOTA preferred the 2018 white sox to the 2019 white sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: 73-89. PECOTA preferred the 2018 white sox to the 2019 white sox. Cool? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, Donaldo said: What did PECOTA predict for last season? They feel that the Cubs will be good, but the rest of their division will be scary good. Besides, the Cubs have one of the (if not THE) oldest pitching staffs in the game. Last year it was 72-90. So with their accuracy we can expect to be 64-98. Let's wait for Vegas numbers. Last year this book had White Sox at 65 wins and they had 62. https://www.docsports.com/current/mlb-season-win-totals-predictions-720.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Here's a good review of what the projection systems did last year: http://www.banishedtothepen.com/evaluating-the-2018-predictions-and-projections/ A couple of insights: the best performer (PECOTA) was, on average, off by 7.5 wins. These systems will basically always underestimate the best teams and overestimate the worst teams. This is why for several seasons now it has been overestimating the Sox — especially when you consider that it doesn't bake in the assumption that the worst teams will dump their veteran performers in trades nor does it factor in the best teams adding good players via trade. The article also gives another useful way to think about these projections, which is the way it orders the teams. So the Sox projection was a ways off in terms of wins but basically correct in that we were widely projected to be one of MLB's worst teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Fuck you PECOTA, we can't lose 92 games! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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