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Fulmer: An awesome deep dive on his driveline winter


bmags

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It's a thing for a lot of teams.  Amateur scouting is about projection.  It's not about what they are now it's about what they're going to be.  Fulmer had a bad frame, bad delivery and bad command.  I have no idea how they thought he was going to get better.  Buehler had projection. He had ceiling.  He wasn't close to being a finished product.  Fulmer went backwards and Buehler went thru the roof.  That's projection scouting.

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11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a thing for a lot of teams.  Amateur scouting is about projection.  It's not about what they are now it's about what they're going to be.  Fulmer had a bad frame, bad delivery and bad command.  I have no idea how they thought he was going to get better.  Buehler had projection. He had ceiling.  He wasn't close to being a finished product.  Fulmer went backwards and Buehler went thru the roof.  That's projection scouting.

I obviously think the dodgers are better at scouting and development than the white sox (I think 2/3s of the league at least is), but my point was the dodgers specifically have been drafting injured or post-injured players with success in bringing them back with good or better stuff, and sometimes not but the big successes stick out. They aren't the only ones, pearson and jeff hoffman.

But it's not always so obvious at the time, some decent evaluators started rethinking the 6' rhp around 2015:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-black-swan-theory-of-drafting-pitchers/

Then BP or someone recently looked at it and due to risk basically said take 6' RHP...just take them in the second round.

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12 minutes ago, bmags said:

I obviously think the dodgers are better at scouting and development than the white sox (I think 2/3s of the league at least is), but my point was the dodgers specifically have been drafting injured or post-injured players with success in bringing them back with good or better stuff, and sometimes not but the big successes stick out. They aren't the only ones, pearson and jeff hoffman.

But it's not always so obvious at the time, some decent evaluators started rethinking the 6' rhp around 2015:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-black-swan-theory-of-drafting-pitchers/

Then BP or someone recently looked at it and due to risk basically said take 6' RHP...just take them in the second round.

Kiley.  That dude's clueless.  I'm not ready to get on board for the 6'0" right hander.  There will always be freaks in baseball. Grienke, Stroman, Lincecum but I wouldn't  want to be in the business of hoping for a freak.  If I'm gonna miss on a guy I'm gonna miss big. 

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2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Kiley.  That dude's clueless.  I'm not ready to get on board for the 6'0" right hander.  There will always be freaks in baseball. Grienke, Stroman, Lincecum but I wouldn't  want to be in the business of hoping for a freak.  If I'm gonna miss on a guy I'm gonna miss big. 

Kiley McDaniel is clueless? What?

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4 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's a thing for a lot of teams.  Amateur scouting is about projection.  It's not about what they are now it's about what they're going to be.  Fulmer had a bad frame, bad delivery and bad command.  I have no idea how they thought he was going to get better.  Buehler had projection. He had ceiling.  He wasn't close to being a finished product.  Fulmer went backwards and Buehler went thru the roof.  That's projection scouting.

He did not have bad command in college. His last year he had over a 3/1 K/BB ratio and a 1.03 WHIP. Also if you watch any of his games he was dominant. The other things could be considered but the command wasnt bad.

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1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Being able to throw the ball past college hitters doesn't mean you have good command.

I watched a lot of Fulmer's starts his junior year when the Sox started to get linked to him.  One thing that really stood out was just how many strike outs he got on breaking pitches in the dirt.  Clearly, we've seen that he just hasn't been able to get professional hitters to chase that pitch.  He also had some difficulty maintaining his velocity from start to start that season.

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6 hours ago, ptatc said:

He did not have bad command in college. His last year he had over a 3/1 K/BB ratio and a 1.03 WHIP. Also if you watch any of his games he was dominant. The other things could be considered but the command wasnt bad.

I mean he walked 50 guys in like 120 innings. That's not very good command in college. 

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On 2/14/2019 at 2:47 PM, SoxAce said:

"Fulmer, however, believes his unorthodox mechanics were part of what made him effective."

 

FINALLY. Still thought it was weird they made him change it a while back abd was adamant about it. 

Never understood that.  The Sox drafted him #8 overall because of his success and felt the need to change him?  Like the point with Sale...if it ain't broke don't fix it.  Hope he flourishes in the bullpen.

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6 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Never understood that.  The Sox drafted him #8 overall because of his success and felt the need to change him?  Like the point with Sale...if it ain't broke don't fix it.  Hope he flourishes in the bullpen.

He had more issues than sale with endurance and keeping his stuff late in starts. If he wanted to be a starter it needed to change, but if he isn't then he should go back to what worked, though still needs better command.

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55 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Never understood that.  The Sox drafted him #8 overall because of his success and felt the need to change him?  Like the point with Sale...if it ain't broke don't fix it.  Hope he flourishes in the bullpen.

The difference was the high effort and different mechanics will make it tough for fulmer to stick as a starter. Sale has different mechanics but is not a high effort motion. You can have one issue but not both to pitch deep into games.

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